Dufner won't win and I'll tell you for why.....

can your tea leaves tell me how gmac will do?

I am afraid I can't my friend, all I can tell you is in my 71st year on this planet I can spot a bottler at 100 yards by candle light.

webb simpson

ok thx

39 players ahead of woods

no way Dufner a bottler

5 major champions within 5 shots may be his undoing

justin rose is there again, and has,nt got a monkey on his back no more. he,s thriving on it now.

love it "bottler by candlelight"
Actually think your right there,the duff is a bit of a bottler( that putt for 62 didn't look like a champions effort),he tries to look cool.
Rose & Kuchar do both look determined but quickening conditions over the next 2 days will make the course play a lot tougher.
With no more rain forecast the earlier starters should have the best of it on day 3,taking advantage of any moisture left in the course,drying as the day wears on with the greens becoming more difficult.
Saturday forecast is sunny with a high temp of 23/24 degrees.
Sunday is a similar forecast by which time the course should be playing very much harder than the opening 3 days.
Depending on how quick it is tomorrow Sunday could be a very interesting day.

walofs if he shoots a couple of 68's he wins imo

leader board full of quality and wouldnt be lumping on duffner at prices.............wd done anyone on at bigger prices i think chapman and palmer both put him up

my only bet is scott ive fairly lumpy bet feelin confident but been here before with himthink sat will be his crucial round as he try to kick on and can go both ways for him

looking for an outsider to supplement him and at 210 have backed ricki......2 under same as mahan and day who are trading at 75s/80s think ricki a streaky fearless type player could have a big round in him

gd luck all for weekend

padlock, he may win this with two par rounds.

Would you be a layer at 5.9 Eddie? personally i think Scott and Rose are more likely winners

hope course drys up a lot,hard course ffs a 63 ,how hard is it? target golf first 2days

No, I wouldn't be..   I think Dufner @ 5.8-5.9 is great value.
  I also think Furyk and Stricker represent value atm.

@Eddie : my calculations telling me exactly the same. They may not win, but those 3 are the value.

5.8 great value--pmsl

Scott and rose for me dufners2 foot putt on the last was a very nervy putt sign of things to come

xmoneyx, you have your opinion, but based on number and maths only - there's no doubt Dufner is the best value now.
  I also think conditions over the weekend will be in his favour as the course will slowly dry up and a little more wind today will make it harder to chase the leader. Birdies will come harder and scrambling even more important than it has been.
I think we'll se lots of 70 - 72 rounds from everyone in contention today and tomorrow.

only maths I know is there is 36 holes to play,and three  majors winners within 2/3 shots

think someone said in the last 23majors,only 2winnners who had halfway lead
laid scott,furyk,stricker be good for me, some -2 or around will move today,should be great nights viewing

halfway lead who won*

Garrigus @90?? Just 6 players to overtake....has to be value when you look at previous winners of this title..and he is a tour winner.

did u see his putt@18

....streak player,when he gets on a roll watch out!! That putt on 18 was misread by half the field btw

he never misread it,straight right yip

I'm tempted to lay Dufner, his 2 shot lead is bound to close at some point today.

Tempting odds for Garrigus, but I think he'll struggle more than the others to find fairways off the tee today due to the drier and windier conditions.

Layed Duffner, should have an opportunity to trade, already made a bit by laying Scott when he was 2 shots in front.

He should take driver off the 13th and try clear that creek @315 well within his range.Hard to believe nobody has ever reached it,maybe if its downwind today it will be on.Won't dry out that much,and he can use iron's off most tee's with his length..huge price for me.

I agree it's a huge price if conditions are still soft, but it's a big if...

you can get decent prices on the Sunday,if your prepared to wait

Am I the only one who thinks Jesus Simpson has a shot at this? 3 back (excluding Dufner who I think will wobble) and played the last 27 holes -9. When he gets things working for him he's a tough guy to shake off and at 36's he'll give me a run for my money.

agree simpson looks value,cant really see how tough this track is yet,even i would fancy driving 14 yesterday

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7z00nX1zqo4

his enjoy the jail cell quote was good

Webb

There was a lot of late money for the Duffmeister on Wednesday night / Thursday morning  , a bit like the late plunge on Phil for the Open .  Has someone got an exclusive on news from above , or is it just someone with ability to pick a strong runner ?

Only bet I had myself was on Gmac , thought the course would be right up his street , but his putter is not in the 100% zone so far .

I hav gmac---couldn't buy a putt thurs/fri

hope he posts a score today

You realize a value bet is just an opinion right? What looks a value bet to me might not be a value bet to the next person...  Any way converting the odds into percentage probability at 5.8 the layer thinks Dufner has roughly a 16% chance of winning which to me looks just about correct.

I hope Duff-man wins but still think Scott is playing the best golf.. I missed holes 6-18 of dufners round yesterday though but i would think it must have been playstation golf

Of course value is opinions, even if there is a correct price.  It's just impossible to calculate/estimate it accurately.

But why do you say the layer(s) are the one(s) dictating prices ?
  Imo it's the backers who are forming the market prices and it's certaily a lot easier for backers to move prices than it is for layers.

Dufner is leading to early, you need a good nights sleep on the friday i doubt he got one.

I do not believe Scott or Rose will win. It's hard to win 2 Majors in a year and neither of them has the necessary class like Woods or Nicklaus to do so.

I will agree to dis agree

Shoots a 63 in a major and he is a bottler.  And players who shot 80 held it together.
I'm convinced.

Aug 10, 2013 -- 1:57PM, Ski-Wiz wrote:

I do not believe Scott or Rose will win. It's hard to win 2 Majors in a year and neither of them has the necessary class like Woods or Nicklaus to do so.

2 majors in a year is hard but not restricted to just golfing icons. Pod and O'Meara for example.

dufner has this habit of missing 2-3 footers when the pressure is on. that will be his undoing im afraid
hope im wrong but I don't see him finishing it off - he's hit the front way too early

I really hope he doesn't win. Never forget the disgusting crumble 2 years ago to let Bradley win. Watching him sweating profusely and trying to drag his fat carcass around the course whilst dropping shots for fun was too much to watch. May as well have had a bonfire with my fkin money.

Tee announcer is hilarious. Classic American stereo type!

lol hank.ma worst loss like that was bjorn losing to curtis in the open.3 out the bunker

that's what im talking about........sad too watch cos like westwood, brilliant up till the putting

Aug 10, 2013 -- 7:49PM, Hank Hill wrote:

I really hope he doesn't win. Never forget the disgusting crumble 2 years ago to let Bradley win. Watching him sweating profusely and trying to drag his fat carcass around the course whilst dropping shots for fun was too much to watch. May as well have had a bonfire with my fkin money.

that's genius

17 and 18 are very hard and anyone needing a PAR, PAR finish would struggle to do so, add the fact that it would be to win a major and I think bogey, bogey would be more likely.

That does not make them a choker, just 2 very hard holes to finish.

But many out there will be shouting choker at the top of their voices as usual.

Normally people who couldn't pot a straight black for their local pool team when the score was 4 all.

.....that twitchy putt on the 18 showed me a man who is mentally fragile. A man with no real pedigree. The winner will be Kuchar. I have been nibbling at him for the last two days, and I believe this man is now ready to dive in to the waters of plenty and bath in the sun of success. You heard it here first.

only just seen this thread....you think duffer has no bottle but Cooch has........thats made my day...comedy gold.

Yeah, I'm not bitter lendmeurwheelbarrow Actually I have changed my mind, he can win today as I am quite red on Furyk!

He will win because week aftrer week I back the little sod and he does naff all. YEt the only weeks I forget, am busy he goes and wins

Like Mickleson, backed him several times to no avail and laid him twice. He has won the twice I laid him but never when I have backed him

Gentlemen,

As I slope off to the bath to wash my weary and worthless limbs, firstly, I want you to know I won't be taking a electric fire in there with me, I've been  laying dufner all day convinced my almost psychic analysis of this great game was right, however, it was wrong.

Secondly I'd like to hold my hands up and say I deserve to be s****ed and sneered at. I was bold, some would even argue rash when I arrogantly wrote this thread. I only ask one thing as I leave tail firmly between my legs to return to the poor house.

Keep reaching for the stars.

Never stop.

blueFoxx15.....at least you had the balls to put up your opinion......unlike some on here. Enjoy your bath

hope the pain isn't to much bluefox

thinly veiled i`m off to knock one out

Credit to poster coming back on holding his hands up we all get it wrong From time to time
There's alway next week

great final round from dufner

Aye, credit for not doing a disappearing act.

Think the key was Dufner stiffing so many iron shots, his putting from distance was quite good and such was the quality of some of his approaches he never really have too many testers. Just as well as the putting stroke on 17 was quite horrible.

duffers went for it all day...furyk tried to par it to death hoping others would just fall away.....duffers went and won it...well done that man....

duffner can drill his wedges to 5 feet every time........that was the difference

Aug 10, 2013 -- 1:32PM, Eddie the eagle wrote:

Of course value is opinions, even if there is a correct price.  It's just impossible to calculate/estimate it accurately. But why do you say the layer(s) are the one(s) dictating prices ?  Imo it's the backers who are forming the market prices and it's certaily a lot easier for backers to move prices than it is for layers.

I wasnt trying to attack you eddie. It was just that you said 5.8 for Duf was value and another poster said it certainl was not as if there was a definitive answer as to what was a "value bet" .... And just in case you think i am saying this just because duff won i backed him EW at 33/1 on thursday morning along with 4 others [Dustin Johnson Stricker Mahan and cooch] I dont own a facebook or twitter page but if you want hard evidence i will put it on the facebook page of someone i know I will PM you her name before i put it on the FB page... Anyway well played Dufner and the real bottler IMO is Lee Westwood..... I would love to see a stat of his round 4 scores when in with a genuine chance of winning a major

MONET TREE getting worried.

*MONEY

gambling is very simple...........all winners are value and all losers are not.

Well calculated Eddie the Eagle, you were spot on.

I saw 3 puts that looked very nervy - think under real pressure may be a different story but everybody fell away as soon as they looked challenging

obviously all the challengers felt more pressure than duffman, he held up well all day.

Agreed but don't think I would want to be with him in a real tight finish

Eddie doesn't give out tips too often, but after picking Oostie a few years ago when he won the Open at long odds, and calling J-Duff good value at 5.8s I reckon he's proven to be one of the more astute on here. I will pay attention to him moving forwards

Aug 9, 2013 -- 11:29PM, BlueFoxx15 wrote:

I am afraid I can't my friend, all I can tell you is in my 71st year on this planet I can spot a bottler at 100 yards by candle light.

Come back when you are 80, maybe you will be able to spot one a little easier, think Dufner will be one of those golfers who wins a big one and dines out on it for the rest of his life tho, cant see him winning anymore.

At all, or just Majors?

Dont know what formula Eddie is using to spot value but if he is giving a tutorial i will be sitting in the front row.