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This one is easy... Back the Aussies. 
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Why?
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I fancy Palmer and Leishman to go well, but can't take them at those prices.
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same two i liked but also dont like prices.also liked jordan spieth also seems bit short
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Aussies go well here ski, pretty simple really. those prices on Day and Leishman though are pretty horrible - if you compare Leishman to Horschel at New Orleans as there is a similar theme, Horschel was far better value.
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111
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Wow, Leishman shorter than Charl, Keegan, Oosty and DJ
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Almost always a pathetic reaction from backers the following week after one played well......
Leishy the lay of the week IMO. |
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3 weeks in a row and good course form, it's more than just last week. I really like him for this week, but the price is amazingly low, would rather take my chances getting him IP at a higher figure. Only involvement so far was backing DA at 50, stake back at 40.
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Very quiet this week....only £40 ish k matched.
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3 tourns this week Ski....
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Mad Open 6.7k
VWMP 22.6k HP 45k Still very low.....perhaps most people are having a break this week before the only tournament in England next week. |
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People often ask me why I don't back favouites in golf tournaments and the answer I always give is that they offer poor value when you look at their percentage of wins/places with Tiger maybe being the only exception. When I do finally go for a shorter priced golfer then I usually get people saying the value is terrible - I am therefore in a no win situation! Over the past weeks we have had players who have been in my eyes bad value and won. Billy Horschell was in excellent form but had poor course form. I believe over the course of time I am right to leave those players who haven't proved it on the big stage well alone at short prices. This week has been rather a conundrum with my only two fancies being what some people may conisder short prices.
There is no denying Marc Leishman is the form horse this week backing up his 4th in the Masters with a 9th at Harbour Town and 8th at Sawgrass - all on courses he had never played well before. This week he plays the Las Colinas course where he has a great record - 8/12/c/3 and there is clearly something in the Texas air he likes as he has also won in the lone star state on the Web.com tour as well. I am happy to pass on players at less than 33/1 who haven't won before but Leishman has a victory in the Travelers Championship last year. When taking a short price I do pay close attention to the opposition and with the exception of Jason Day I think there are question marks over the majority of those at the top of the market so I duly took a big plunge - 1 pt ew 28/1 (still 25/1 in a few places) Having said all that I am sure people will now shout - but Jordan Spieth hasn't won! but at 40/50 he is worth taking a risk for a few reasons. I pencilled him in for this a few months back when he hit a great run of form as he played here aged 16 & 17 making the cut and indeed even contending. When the tour turned up in Texas in April he went off @ 50/1 for the Houston Open and 35/1 for the Texas Open - but this event in his home town of Dallas was always going to give him the best opportunity as he has such great course form. Any sort of form appraoching his three top tens on the PGA tour this year will see him go close - 0.5 ew 50/1 (40/1 still OK) |
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Looking at previous results.
Am I right in assuming there is no advantage to either the bombers or shorties on this course? |
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Sporting Life Preview
http://www.sportinglife.com/golf/news/article/585/8712373/another-day-for-jason |
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The Jay Morrish design was renovated by D.A. Weibring and Steve Wolford in just about any way possible in advance of the 2008 edition. Always a par 35-35=70, the course has measured 7,166 yards since the redo. The par 5s serve as the antepenultimate holes on each nine. Golfers will want to pounce on both as the duo averaged 4.64 in 2012. The 528-yard third has ranked annually among the most difficult par 4s on TOUR. Last's year's scoring average of 4.320 ranked T28 of 526.
Overall, TPC Four Seasons averaged 71.087 strokes in 2012, fourth-highest among 13 par 70s in non-majors. It's ranked inside the top 10 in fewest fairways hit in each of the last five years (52.47 percent in 2012). Hitting Bentgrass greens that average 6,000 square feet in regulation is no bargain either. Last year's GIR clip of 62.40 ranked 17th-lowest among all courses last season. And saving par is even more challenging. The course registered a scrambling percentage of 52.78 in 2012, its second-lowest of the last five editions. There are hazards all over the property but the primary challenge is negotiating the wind. Once again, it's expected to blow pretty good, with sustained breezes approaching 20 mph throughout the week. High temperatures will climb into the upper 80s by the weekend. A gradual threat of inclement weather will complement the warming trend. |
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Fingers crossed for: Bradders 20/1
Kaymer 69/1 English 69/1 O'Hair 169/1 |
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Louis Oosthuizen is my pick. He has been showing little green shoots lately.
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Backed Chucky at 65, Perez at 100, Rollins at 110 and Beljan at 390.
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DJ out it appears.
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there isnt any obvious advantage to any type of player ........albeit the one constant is there will be wind.........finding a player that plays well in wind obvious starting......not playing this week but the likes of miko ilonen alway seems to feature in europe when the winds.......brian gay maybe........would it be worth cross ref with earlier results from tournies at hawaiiae
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ok here is my reasoning...Dufner and Bradley last 2 winners here 1st and 2nd in USPGA couple of years ago. 4th there was Robert Karlsson. He is just coming off a Top 5 at Quail Hollow and watched 2 swedes go well last week. Got to be in with a shot surely as he goes and misses the cut.
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ok here is my reasoning...Dufner and Bradley last 2 winners here 1st and 2nd in USPGA couple of years ago. 4th there was Robert Karlsson. He is just coming off a Top 5 at Quail Hollow and watched 2 swedes go well last week. Got to be in with a shot surely as he goes and misses the cut.
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sorry twitchy finger
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Can't believe Schwartzel is as low as 22. First time in this event, recent form mediocre at best...come on. That's a lay for me, and a stand out one at that.
Could argue that opposition isn't formidable, but certainly strong enough for me to think old Charl won't be up to it this weekend. Another obvious lay for me is Garrigus. For one main reason: his temperament. This guy is seriously prone to blowing a gasket on a regular basis with himself. Guys like this are rare winners, (ok most professional golfers win 'rarely', but robert 'more rarer' than the rest imo.)and while his record here isn't brutal, his mindset is. an easy lay.  |
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Laid to trade:
Dufner - no top 10s this year Bradley - missed last 2 cuts, despite win here don't think he's driving well enough in that wind Garrigus - 1 top 25 last 7 starts same as Bradley applies Charles Howell 111 - laid at 65  1 top 30 in 9 tries here, and with his wayward driving and the wind he'll do well to make the cut.Backed to trade: Boo Weekley - straight as a dye but can he get the putter to work? Hopefully Jordan Spieth - TMM has given better reasoning than I could. Longshot/Hail Mary's: Brendon Todd - Just won on the web tour. Steve Marino - Playing crap but top 20 2 out of 3 visits Nick O'Hern - Short hitter keeps it straight and is Australian. That'll do. So come Sunday Dufner will beat Bradley, Garrigus and Howell III in a 4 man play-off  |
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Its about time Bob Karlsson hit form again......few pennies on him plus Jimmy Walker.....Spieth makes up my 3some....
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Outright
Brian Harman 250 Nick O Hern 600 Matt Every 140 Dickie Pride 280 Bobby Gates 510 1st Round Leader Brian Harman 100/1 ew Brad Fritsch 100/1 ew Shawn Stefani 150/1 ew Scott Gardiner 150/1 ew Peter Tomasulo 150/1 ew Robert Streb 150/1 ew Expectations Low |
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After last weeks 330/1 winner i'm hoping they're like buses.
Ben Kohles @ 310 // Top 5 @ 50 // Top 10 @ 20. Won back to back on the Webb tour last season. Already had a couple of top 20's this year and should be ready to go after a week off. Short and accurate which seems to do well here. (Dufner / Durrant / Duke / Bohn / Pride.) All top 10 last year. Gl all. |
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gone for jj henry ew
brian gay ew jordan speith win also backed palmer and lieshman for small wins |
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"Tonight the Super Trouper lights are gonna find me.
Shining like the sun Smiling having fun Feeling like a number one" Two nearly Swedes last week... This week, step forward young Henrik Norlander. |
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Norlander @ 240, and @46 top 5
Every E/W @ 150 David Mathis @ 1000 |
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Immelman for me, should feel comfortable in the conditions..gl all
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Small trades this week....hopefully one of them in with a shout when i get back on Sunday.
Jason Day Jason Dufner Keegan Bradley Marc Leishman Robert Garrigus Martin Kaymer Charlie Wi John Daly Will Claxton |
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garrigus, watkins and piercy for me this week .
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Traded fairly well this week, Rollins was a stuff up but the others all went well and have kept the liability down. Happy enough with starting book:
Points +550 CH3 +1360 Perez +1075 English +1005 Rollins +790 Molder +1170 Beljan +1836 The field -70 Good luck folks. |
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M. Kuchar +£137.
K. Bradley +£148. J. Spieth +£179. G. Delaet +£172. J. Rollins +£172. S. M. Bae +£286. J. Huh +£210. M. Every +£248. G. Woodland +£210. J. Maggert +£1,617. S. Y. Noh +£1,085. M. Letzig +£1,657. C. Knost +£2,854 and J. Parnevik +£1,845. Liability £59.10. No real interest this week, so just a bit of a fiddle to keep my eye in. |
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Too many around the 20/1 mark and I can't get started today, internet problems and overworked. So it looks like the RP picks and those I follow over the cliff. O'Hair, Campbell, Noh, Knost, Maggert (owes me nothing after last week), De Laet and Bae. 11 against the field for small stakes. Boo Weekley the biggest single stake. Good luck with yours.
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60 with 2 bogeys. What might have been...
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Blooming heck KB, -10, why did you do that on the week when i have to go away. Just stay up there until Sunday for god sake man.
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