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You've pretty much answered your own question- Walker and Horschel were more likely to get in this position given their form but have both proved suspect in contention, whereas Points rarely gets in this position but has proven he can seal the deal. You're betting on different factors before the start than you are now, plus much of each player's probability is tied into what others will do (ie what Glover does) so will be much more closely related.
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points was 36 on here after first round -6 and well backed, perhaps that is keeping his price down too ?
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