Golf
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29 Jan 13
15:07
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07 Nov 00
This weeks Dubai Desert Classic proved quite a challenge for pinning down trends for past winners - the most obvious is that the last three winners have been Spanish which seems a bit vague to say the least! Most recent winners have been top 20 on the course the year before although I have concentrated for my main pick on the fact that winners seem to have a general affinity for playing desert golf with plenty of top ten finishes in that neck of the woods. One thing that does seem important is course experience with every winner playing at least twice and players in their 20's have a good record of late. There does seem to be a very big tie in with course form from the Oceanico Victoria course in Portugal. There have been six winners so far of the Portuguese Masters - Quiros and Green have also both won this event, Lee Westwood has somehow managed not to win in Dubai but has been second twice, Cabrera-Bello was 2nd in Portugal and won here so I think that is too much of a coincidence to avoid. Interestingly Greens other European win was at Fontana - a course that Cabrera-Bello also won on. I have gone this week for the three other winners at Oceanico Victoria.
Shane Lowry was the latest winner of that event in October and has had the pre-requisite two starts here at the Emirates course - not a lot to show with a mc/66 but he was the best putter here last year. Like all the past winners he has some pretty good desert pedigree with a 4th in Abu Dhabi and an 8th at the World Golf Championships. I will have to overlook his last performance as a one off but it has given him time for plenty of practice in Dubai for the last ten days and he seems happy with his game plus he has what maybe a favourable draw - 0.5 ew 66/1
Tom Lewis beat Cabrera-Bello in 2011 in Portugal but has done the square root of diddly squat since. Maybe he won too soon in his pro career but he has come out in slightly better form in 2013 with two out of two cuts made and a new man on the bag as Colin Byrne has gone to work for Ernie Els. He has made both cuts here including as an amateur and could almost be said to have a similar profile to 2009 winner Rory - worth a small risk 0.1 ew 225/1
Steve Webster won the inaugural Portuguese Masters but has failed to win again since but he is in superb form at the moment. He is striking the ball beautifully and has been 1st,2nd.2nd and 1st for GIR in his last four starts - all he needs is a few more putts to drop.The last time he was playing that consistently well was before he won in Italy. He doesn't have a great desert pedigree apart from last weeks 4th in Qatar but he was 4th at the cut here two years ago before fading and spends much of his time training in Dubai. He could well find the inspiration to win from fellow British winners Donaldson and Wood - 0.4 ew 66/1
The one player I have left out is SY Noh as I think he will be badly prepared flying in from California but he may well be worth backing in running.
Shane Lowry was the latest winner of that event in October and has had the pre-requisite two starts here at the Emirates course - not a lot to show with a mc/66 but he was the best putter here last year. Like all the past winners he has some pretty good desert pedigree with a 4th in Abu Dhabi and an 8th at the World Golf Championships. I will have to overlook his last performance as a one off but it has given him time for plenty of practice in Dubai for the last ten days and he seems happy with his game plus he has what maybe a favourable draw - 0.5 ew 66/1
Tom Lewis beat Cabrera-Bello in 2011 in Portugal but has done the square root of diddly squat since. Maybe he won too soon in his pro career but he has come out in slightly better form in 2013 with two out of two cuts made and a new man on the bag as Colin Byrne has gone to work for Ernie Els. He has made both cuts here including as an amateur and could almost be said to have a similar profile to 2009 winner Rory - worth a small risk 0.1 ew 225/1
Steve Webster won the inaugural Portuguese Masters but has failed to win again since but he is in superb form at the moment. He is striking the ball beautifully and has been 1st,2nd.2nd and 1st for GIR in his last four starts - all he needs is a few more putts to drop.The last time he was playing that consistently well was before he won in Italy. He doesn't have a great desert pedigree apart from last weeks 4th in Qatar but he was 4th at the cut here two years ago before fading and spends much of his time training in Dubai. He could well find the inspiration to win from fellow British winners Donaldson and Wood - 0.4 ew 66/1
The one player I have left out is SY Noh as I think he will be badly prepared flying in from California but he may well be worth backing in running.
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Hi TMM - I often read your posts and appreciate the work you put in. I very rarely post (if ever?) so I hope you don't mind a question...
Steve Webster. I tend to think of him as a poor putter and poor on the greens mentally from short range. He is a decent swinger and ball striker but I'd guess his GIR stats are enhanced by a mentality of 'If i miss a green I don't want to end up having to hole 3-12 feet' and 'If I hit it close I'll prob miss anyway' so 'hopefully I can do well on the par 5's and go at some easy pins with short/mid-irons. As such I'd always be a layer as tourney winner, moreso at shorter prices when in contention. He's been around 15+ years and won a couple of weak events a long while ago. When I see Manessero, Donaldson they look like 4-8 feet is a formality for them. Steve looks like he is just waiting to miss one, even if he's holed a few in a row. Some players have the mindset set that they'll never miss a putt, others seem to count the strokes thet've given away as they go through a round. I'm sure you know what I mean. He seems a nice guy but has some demons on the greens, I hope he can go what Sergio (probably) has but I don't see it. I do see him making loads of top 20s for a few years yet. Appreciate your opinions, please keep them coming. thanks. Her's to him romping home this week then! |
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I quite think Manny is boiling up nicely, very consistent for a few months.
Surely Sergio is going close the way he was striking it last week also. |
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Manny surely not long enough to compete on a course that favours them with little penalising rough. Can see him doing very well once they move to the trickier tracks but couldnt have him for love or money.
Gone with Weisberger, Wattel and Jamieson, all fit the sort of player that acts here and all around 11-2 for a top10 too |
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where is rory
all that money they paid him to advertise and now he's off |
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Throwing my hat in the ring this week. I have looked at guys who have done well here in the past and have been in reasonable form.
Rafa Cabrero Bello: simple pick as he won here last year may be a little short. Romain Wattel: Has had a top ten in the past here and is playing well. Small plays on Stephen Gallacher, Thomas Bjorn and Marcel Siem. GL |
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Where is the quality in general Donny...
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Agreed rhino - looks a very weak field compared to the last few years.
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Looks like there's a good vibe about Paul Casey this week with plenty of money being thrown his way.
I'm betting on a feeling this week; Danny Willett for me. Just feel like he's due. |
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Dan Gaunt one of the 1000/1 chaps could poss trade well.
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Hi marcusbd - re Webster - yes he is a journeyman who earns good money who hits an awful lot of greens when in form. As for his putting - yes it is woeful at the best of times but even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally and in his career to date he has found two - hoping for a third one this week!!
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Hi marcusbd - re Webster - yes he is a journeyman who earns good money who hits an awful lot of greens when in form. As for his putting - yes it is woeful at the best of times but even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally and in his career to date he has found two - hoping for a third one this week!!
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also backed webster along with richie ramsey mkichael campbell stephen gallacher
good luck all |
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re Webbo. His fav course is Portugal, the link is obvious and after last week when he again fell short when in with a chance, he is a very fair shout
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I will be singing gangnam style all the way to the bank on Monday morning when SY Noh wins easy!
ooooooooooooo sexy ladddddddddddy! |
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The fields in the desert swing have been poor this year.
Last week Ewan Murray was banging on that it was the place to be seemingly oblivious to the fact most of the top players didn't agree. |
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My three are Dubuisson, Sullivan and Lampert.
Everyone was touting Moritz Lampert as one of the new wave of young Europeans after Q School but after two missed cuts he's 1000/1 with the bookies? He missed the cut at the Alfred Dunhill Championship by one shot, hitting 17 GIR in a second round 69 and also hit 73% of greens last week in Qatar but took 70 putts over two rounds. Obviously he is hitting the ball well and all it would take is a few putts to drop and he could surprise. Also taken 80/1 top 10 and 1000 on here. |
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I notice that every time that Tiger wins a tournament, the layers are very tight with the favourite the following week. I do not see it so much in U.S. this week because there is no stand out favourite, but definitely, they are very short with Sergio in Dubai.
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Ben Curtis @80 for me.GL all!!
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added a small bet on tom lewis first round leader ew 150/1
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Plumped for
MANNESERO NOH LARRAZABAL BOURDY enjoy the comp |
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Taken Donaldson and Lewis.
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I need some help to organise a safari to go look for my 3 man team who are not on the first five pages of the leaderboard. Only my reserve, again, is shooting ok, young Matteo Manassero. Anybody going well?
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freddy hed can just fark off...
been backing his sh1t for weeks. then then i dont. then goes -4 thru 9. mind you i havnt backed ANYONE yet...lol |
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good to see my old mate garrido up there
 be in bangkok sat onwards for 20 days so will squeeze in whatever live betting i can in that period. really looking forward to NBA live betting. my holiday is why i havnt touched this tourney yet. sigh.... ps: manny can fark off as well  |
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SUPERBOWL Poke... SUPERBOWL. Give the NBA a miss that day.
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Levet did well to bounce back from bogeys on his first two holes. His 1000-1 backers will be happy at -4.
Kieffer, who I don't know, is putting together a fine back nine too. Six birdies in eight holes with the birdieable 18th up next. Freddy Hed cooling down for you poke. |
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rhino, i'm:
san fran +248 ravens +332 i don't want to do anything stupid but for trading purposes i may not be able to resist. assuming i got coverage... miss anomoly, richard sterne is making me feel better about my non participation in this tourney so far. i did go and quickly lump an angry $100 on the phoenix tho. haha. |
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Sterne's round has made it a non-event if you backed one of the late starters. Good luck catching him!
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i also testily rang betfair not long ago and got $20 on manny matched @ 22 when he -5.
still about the same price although last price matched was 15.5 figured if i do nothing else all tourney due to whatever reason, i can live with +400 manny -20 other |
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That was some rush of money on gallacher, presumably based on weather forecast for R2 as he's nearly last out, although will still be fairly windy. Got down to 9.4 here and the books were still taking 13's!
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Early starters set to have the worst of it?? Pretty big draw bias so, considering morning starters definitely had advantage this morning.
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bit of wind today,packed leaderboard
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sick to death of these clowns(europeantour site)not doing there job!i've been keeping an eye Aguilar and when he birdied the par3 15th i backed him @ 200+/1,now 6 holes later it transpires he actually bogeyed it!
 Cheers ***kers for costing me £30! |
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Scott with a thrilling round
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Faldoesque. This looks to me to be wide open, high winds forecast for sunday. Those making the cut could be only 8 back and we have seen some big movers today. Some big prices about. I like Aguilar from here, if you could put that 200+ up lufc, I would give you your 30 quid back. Just had some Anthony Wall at 1000, he came with a late charge last weekend, let's hope he can do it again.
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Does Westwood actually practice putting ?
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3 times just then.
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Very good.We've known for years he does not practice chipping.
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He has got rid of as lot of coaches. Might need a bus soon
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