Farmers Insurance

I could only really study the last four winners of the Farmers Insurance event because before that a certain Mr Woods won from 2005-2008 then won the US Open at Torrey Pines in the “Battle of Wounded Knee” and only returned in 2011 when 44th. I think Woods is easily opposable at the price on the evidence on how he played last week in Abu Dhabi.
Decent course form is a must with the last four winners all having posted a top ten finish in the last two years. It seems to be a course you have to get to know well (or two really - North and South) as Snedeker, Watson and Crane had played the event five times before winning and Watney four times. They have all been what I would call quality winners and all aged from 27 to 33 and all of them had wins under their belts. With these facts in mind I came up with a shortlist of just four players but have ruled out Bill Haas and Hunter Mahan on the basis that they have already had eight and nine attempts respectively to win the title.
At the prices I really like the chances of Marc Leishman this week. The 29 year old Australian won his maiden title last year and has a solid bank of course form at Torrey - in his four attempts he has been 26/2/9/52. His one poor start last year came when this event was his season opener - he has played here better in the past having already got some tournament golf under his belt. He was 23rd at Kapalua but was then 9th at the Sony - his best ever finish there - this could be partly due to a better attitude
“Drank a little bit less beer and ate a little bit less food, I’m not carrying the extra pounds that I normally am this time of year. I’m still carrying a little bit extra. I was just a bit more careful with what I ate and what I drank and just preparing better. I normally like the West Coast but generally don’t get started up until about Texas playing good, so hopefully this year I can change that.”
As he fits all the criteria of the last four winners, has great course form and a good attitude he is worthy of a decent bet - 0.6 ew 75/1 (66/1 OK)
I rarely back favourites but Dustin Johnson has to go in the book this week as he fit’s the mould perfectly. He has had five event starts and was 3rd two years ago. He has a great Californian coastal record with two of his wins coming at Pebble Beach and he now has a total of seven tour wins including the season opener a few weeks ago. He withdrew from the Sony after one round with a “cold” and should be fit and ready to go. I will go win only at 16/1 as the 4/1 for a place isn’t overly generous as he has a 5.4% win rate and 15.4% top five.
The final small pick for the week is based on some “hidden course form” although in reality it probably isn’t that well hidden! Michael Thompson was 29th here in 2008 in the US Open and what we must remember is that he was an amateur at the time albeit the best in the world. He could well be relishing a return to a US Open venue in California having been runner up at last years Major held at the Olympic Club.0.1 ew 250/1 (200/1 OK)