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Beautiful golf course, hopefully a full on schedule 72 holes unlike last weeks debacle.
I expected to see charl as a 3/1 shot going into this, 9/2 looks amazing value for a guy who has just blitzed a far better field last week by 11 shots. Throw in the 1 win and 4 2nd place finishes in his last 6 starts round leopard creek and I don't see where else to go, especially considering Louis' form in this event (missed last 5 cuts).
Any thoughts?
I expected to see charl as a 3/1 shot going into this, 9/2 looks amazing value for a guy who has just blitzed a far better field last week by 11 shots. Throw in the 1 win and 4 2nd place finishes in his last 6 starts round leopard creek and I don't see where else to go, especially considering Louis' form in this event (missed last 5 cuts).
Any thoughts?
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Replies: 39
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was thinking the same thing mate. will have a hundy on him. may the schwarz be strong for another week.
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Ironically, had Charl just shown up well last week, another 2nd or 3rd off a strong final round, I'd fancy him strongly. having won, Im not sure I can back him. Wonder if it may inspire Louis to get his bonce in front but given course form, doubt it. This may be the time to give big George one last hurrah.
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are you guys kidding? Last week was his first win in 20 months - far stronger field?? stronger and with more form in SA than Oosthuizen and Grace (and Coetzee)? What about the massive jetlag? 9-2??? No thanks. Yes Schwartzel has form on the course, yes he's playing well - but 5.5? Sorry. If backing a SA I'd much rather follow Grace, Coetzee, Aiken or Sterne.
9-2? Grace has won 4 times on tour last year (2 in SA around this time last year if Im not mistaken). Oost is knocking on the door - Aiken is finding form.... Id rather have a tenner on someone like sjolholm @ 200-1 than Schwartzel @ 9-2....that's value. Obviously these are your opinions and you're welcome to express them.... |
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just rereading the posts re the forum and why it's gone downhill etc - went over to betd@q and there's no one there either. I've always been guilty of reading everyone else's golf ch@t over the last 10 years or so and not really contributing...except to bemoan my losses
There have been so many characters who have graced the forum over the years it seems churlish to single them out. Re this tournament, as per the above - I respect Charl, I view him as a threat but no way I'll back him for this. I like Grace as my big bet @ 19's. If you look at the last tournament he, Oost and Charl played, 2 shots separated them. Obviously course form plays its part, but Grace has only had one outing on this track and that was before he really found his game. Others I like at long odds would be Jonzon Zanotti Ahers Da Silva (if he starts) Quesne I would love to hear others' thoughts. |
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Jeez - gl to the caddies as it's a risky ride around Leopard Creek...
“Then we have waterbuck, bushbuck, kudu, impala and, at this time of year, a lot of snakes. There are black mambas, Mozambique spitting cobra and the most dangerous of the whole bunch - puff adders. “So you probably want to take an iron and scratch ahead of you if you find yourself in the rough this week!” Leopard Creek’s Course Superintendent Derek Muggeridge has also had a number of close scrapes with some of the country club’s most dangerous inhabitants. Just one week before the last edition of the Alfred Dunhill Championship 12 months ago, Muggeridge was driving his golf cart by the ninth tee when his foot – which had been casually hanging off the side of the vehicle – hooked onto a deadly, two and a half metre long Black Mamba snake. The reptile was dragged along for a few yards until Muggeridge managed to shake it off and with that the snake disappeared back into the bush. |
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just happy to play Charl to beat Louis at 5-6
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That's got to be better value than 9/2 to beat the field. This field is far stronger than last week's. I actually would have thought the track would suit Oost but going on form apparently not! There's some real class in this field and unless Charl turns up on top, top form - no jetlag, no bounce factor - he won't get the job done. I make him 7or8-1
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gone for
richard sterne 55s gregory bourdy 55s |
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well i couldnt bring my self to back charl @ 7 last week even though i really wanted to. i was going to then i started thinking too much and overintellectualised why he couldn't win and didnt put it on. going against my gut. he consequently made a royal joke of me. prob of everyone who opposes him.
so this week he's getting 100 of my dollars. good luck dubai_master. forget the absolutism that gets spouted on here. its all a bunch of reckoning. just keep reckoning what you reckon. |
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i reckon the field was stronger last week. it's only eurocentrism that thinks otherwise.
sergio, bubba, mahan, westy, and a bunch of keen thais on home soil amongst others i've left out. that imo trumps oosty, coetzee and grace and aiken. grace gone stone cold since winning earlier in year. done bollox since then. coetzee (a multiple winner, not). oosty (i'll pay that. worthy opposition) aiken, whatever. and the theory that its hard to win at home goes out the window for south africans. so if you think charl cant do it. then you also have to think oosty and grace and coetzee cant do it. i cant rationalise that. thus, winning form is good form. |
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how can you say Grace has gone out of form? he won two months ago and was 6th (2 shots behind Charl) 2 weeks ago. As for Aiken's current form, I would say it's pretty good.
Last but not least - if you didnt think 7-1 was value last week, I dont see how you can think 9-2 is this week |
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Totally agree pokeron, I was on the 7/1 last week and I believe this field is far weaker than last week.
Charl is on a mission since getting over his injuries, only thing that puts me off now, is that in his interview he has stated that he is tired and he isn't hitting the ball well... |
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Well here goes - the final write up for 2012 - I hope you all have enjoyed reading at least some of the stuff I have written and hopefully managed to just pick the bets out that made a return!
Quite a few tipsters have already pointed out the link between Leopard Creek and Royal Park Roveri that I found a few months ago and that led me to tipping Mulroy who came a gallant 2nd at 200/1 and I have used that link in reverse to come up with the main bet of the week in David Horsey. He is a talented player and a proven winner and seems very confident that his game is coming around after a poorish season. He has finished 2nd at Royal Park but has only played Leopard Creek the once improving with every round in 2008 when 21st. I went in early @ 66/1 0.5 ew and then had to top up with a further 0.25 ew @ 80/1 when a few books made him bigger. I have been really impressed by young German Moritz Lampert - maybe the next Martin Kaymer! As an amateur he made it through Q School finishing 4th in the final confirming the promise he showed this year in amateur events. This year he has won the Portuguese and German amateurs, finished 2nd in the Lytham Trophy and 3rd in the Eisenhower. That last event was top quality and the 4th placed Julien Brun has already won on the Euro Challenge Tour. He is a player I would like to get on early in his career as II can only see his price contracting over time 0.1 ew 200/1 Michael Jonzon has a great record in South Africa - well for top tens anyway, in the last four years in eight starts he has three top tens. The latest of those came in the South African Open just last month and he was also 8th here in 2008 His best result last year was 6th at Royal Park Roveri and having regained his card at Q school he will be keen to wrap it up early this time round 0.1 ew 200/1 + 0.2 Top 10 20/1 Last bet comes in the form of a round one leader bet and hopefully Craig Lee is inspired by the win of fellow Scot Jamieson last week. Lee has only played in South Africa six times in his career but has found himself in the top five after the first round on three occasions. On his one start here in 2007 he was 2nd and in his three starts in the country this year he has been 13th, 3rd and 4th. With a nice early tee time he has to be worth a bet 0.15 ew 125/1. |
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how much would you recommend a point muppet and what level could you get on at that prices.
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I know the answer to that one par!
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very little donemylot , lol
you can have £2.68 at that price sir |
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Less I would think. We've often had the debate about the lesser tours and with tmm and myself 'having' to do them its a right pain in the arsse when you cant bet. Ironically, when all firms priced up the finale, they all took a fair bet.
Ach well, sooch is life |
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I stake at £100 per point but usually spread bets round a bit! or a lot!
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What do you make of the top 4 in the market TMM?
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Always look forward to this event due to the course but even more so after last weeks non event in Durban.I'm going against the guys right at the top of the market for a variety of reasons and i'll look further down the list in the hope of finding the winner.
I've gone with the following 5 guys : LARRAZABAL- Spaniards have done quite well in this over the years and maybe he can continue the trend.He's not eye popping value at 40s when you consider he finished only 40th in his one previous visit here.A hunch bet as much as anything. MULROY- Not been playing great of late but i'm willing to look past this due to his good record here over the years.The fact that the course is playing longer this year in comparison to recent years due to recent rain won't count against him either as he's fairly long off the tee.Happy to take the 50s each way with Sid James. WEBSTER- You can't go placing too much emphasis on last weeks form at Royal Durban but Webster on the whole looked good there tee to green as he has done for years to be fair.Hasn't played here before which has to count as a negative.Has the length to compete this week and should take confidence from last week.Took some 14s for a top 5 finish with the bookies and some of the win only 140s that were available on here. GOYA- Had to go back to Q-School to get his card back after a poor season last year and hopefully that will have been a shot across his bow.Has the talent and should be doing more with it.Good effort last week for whatever that was worth but even though he finished a lowly 57th in his one previous visit here,i think this course should be to his liking.It's playing long and you do have a bit of room to play with off the tee.What really attracts me to him though is that he plays here in preference to his his national open which takes place in Argentina this week.Took some of the 20s for a top 5 finish with the bookies and some of the 140/150s win only on here. GRILLO- Hasn't played here before which is a drawback but did have a top 10 finish in The Africa Open last season in his first season on tour.Only kept his card last year due to a top 5 finish late on in the season down in Australia,so i'm sure he'll be looking to get off to a fast start this season.Much the same as Goya,he's long off the tee and the fact he plays here in preference to his national open is a big plus for me.It says that him and Goya are down here for a reason as i'm sure they'd rather be playing at home.Gone each way at 125s with Joe C. Good luck to everyone having a bet in pursuit of the xmas money! |
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Daffyde - Schwartzel justifiable fave with course and current form but gotta be getting tired but would take him anyday in a match bet over Oosthuizen who actually struggles to win and has awful recent course form. I think the people who follow Coetzee every time he plays can safely be called lemmings and until he learns to win there is no point in betting him. I would say Grace is the best value of the four when you consider his wins - how on earth he can be bigger than Coetzee is beyond me, admittedly his course form isn't great but he is arguably a better player this year. Of course these views are from an outright betting perspective and not a trading one!
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Taking a flyer this week with Havret @ 200, been trying to find some stats to back that up but struggling so call it a gut feeling..
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I just think Grace is huge a@ 20's on here. Absolutely huge. Im having my biggest bet of the year on him - I think he is in the same league as Charl and Louis and I think he will be the next Saffer to win a Major. I just wish I had more to put on.
Dont get me wrong Im worried by Charl and to a degree Louis (by the way, I couldnt agree more about Louis @ the moment - he couldn't finish a w@nk) but @ 19-1 Grace looks an extremely tasty price |
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Wasn't going to bother with a bet here..., but Grace is now 25. An absolute insult. Taken that, and the 6.4 for top 5. GL
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Charl -4 with 3 pars 5's to go today. Early start in the morning so he should be odds on by lunchtime tomorrow.
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eezie peezie when you look at it like that
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Oosty really doesnt like this gaff. What a wasted oppertunity this was. WHACK. Thats me kicking myself
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would love to see a "mashed potatoe" idiot shout when georgie boy is having one of todays rounds feel sure he'd blow and cave their head in with a hybrid
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Louis had an 8 on his book today.
That skews the scoring. He played ok apart from that. |
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ship it.
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I am getting a bit sick of watching Bourdy drain them from every corner of the course to be honest.
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Charl awesome so far again this week. Didn't play at all this week but WD those who highlighted him at 9/2, xmas came early.
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well it's a well done to those who were so adamant about Charl @ 9/2 - even if he doesn't go on to win you've got a no-brainer of a lay @1.65. Hands up I was wrong to be so scornful of 9/2. A Bit unlucky Bourdy has gone with him you would say, could be 1.3 if he were 4 clear the field
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Anyone ever won by 10 or more two weeks running ?
Layers having jam butties for Christmas dinner ? |
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Not sure the matchbet win compensates for the no bet outright but hey ho.
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hope its xmas turkey for you frames
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHw6KXbvazs
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i guess the writer of the article didn't know that charl won last week in thailand.
pretty poor reporting really. the writer mentioned jamieson winning last week so that doesnt make sense... http://www.pga.org.au/article-display/schwartzel-poised-to-end-drought/135089 |
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double for bourdy on the last a nice little bonus
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