Golf
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10 Oct 12
20:58
Joined:
Date Joined:
07 Nov 00
Dead here innit!
I had a long list of players to back this week and in the end at the prices only backed one of them - Rcihard H Lee - all the others fell by the wayside despite me backing a lot of them at big prices on Betfair but at the bookmakers odds there was no value in them. I guess Brendan Steele was the biggest casualty - he was going to be my headline tip but was only one third of the price we backed him at last week but is he three times as likely to win this week - I think not!
John Rollins really caught my eye at the price as we know he can win - he has three PGA wins and whilst he has been out of form of late he does have some top finishes this season, was 6th here last year (when in similar form) and overall has a great record in California. I really don't get why he should be so much bigger than a lot of players who have worse course form or have never won! 0.4 ew 80/1
Richard H Lee has been a very popular pick this week and it comes as no great surprise with his current level of form - one added bit of information that made him a pick for me is that also had a good runout here in 2008 in a top Collegiate event so for a change he has some prior knowledge of a course 0.25 ew 80/1
Jason Bohn is a bit of a hit and miss player and I usually miss badly when I pick him but at 100/1 felt he was worth a small bet as this is the sort of poor field where both of his wins have come before. He was 2nd a few months ago and it was only 2010 when he last won and he came back to form after a break when 8th last week which more or less secured his 2013 card. 0.2 ew 100/1
Matt Every is last man up and he secured his playing rights for next year a long time ago as he already has a 2nd,3rd,6th,6th and 8th placed finishes this season. After a quiet spell I can easily see him bouncing back to form as he has been good in the Fall on the Web.com tour winning the 2009 Tour Championship and last year finishing 4th and 3rd on that tour. 0.2 ew 100/1
I had a long list of players to back this week and in the end at the prices only backed one of them - Rcihard H Lee - all the others fell by the wayside despite me backing a lot of them at big prices on Betfair but at the bookmakers odds there was no value in them. I guess Brendan Steele was the biggest casualty - he was going to be my headline tip but was only one third of the price we backed him at last week but is he three times as likely to win this week - I think not!
John Rollins really caught my eye at the price as we know he can win - he has three PGA wins and whilst he has been out of form of late he does have some top finishes this season, was 6th here last year (when in similar form) and overall has a great record in California. I really don't get why he should be so much bigger than a lot of players who have worse course form or have never won! 0.4 ew 80/1
Richard H Lee has been a very popular pick this week and it comes as no great surprise with his current level of form - one added bit of information that made him a pick for me is that also had a good runout here in 2008 in a top Collegiate event so for a change he has some prior knowledge of a course 0.25 ew 80/1
Jason Bohn is a bit of a hit and miss player and I usually miss badly when I pick him but at 100/1 felt he was worth a small bet as this is the sort of poor field where both of his wins have come before. He was 2nd a few months ago and it was only 2010 when he last won and he came back to form after a break when 8th last week which more or less secured his 2013 card. 0.2 ew 100/1
Matt Every is last man up and he secured his playing rights for next year a long time ago as he already has a 2nd,3rd,6th,6th and 8th placed finishes this season. After a quiet spell I can easily see him bouncing back to form as he has been good in the Fall on the Web.com tour winning the 2009 Tour Championship and last year finishing 4th and 3rd on that tour. 0.2 ew 100/1
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Replies: 8
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Overton 34
Slocum 85 Steele 48. |
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Jimmy Walker 38
Brendan Steele 46 Richard H Lee 65 Not a top quality field and these three should be there or thereabouts #famouslastwords |
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ben curtis 50
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Freddy Jacobson withdrawing? Can't see him in the lineup on pgatour.com :(
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Has he withdrawn?? I've got him to smash Campbell in a matchbet
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Just Baddeley 44 pre-tourney.
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Colt Knost @ 225.
Lets go fat boy! |
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Was too late to do the EW doubles on the RP selections, missed the start of the Portugese Masters. When I got my one remining brain cell into action, could have backed Fisher @ 23, Harrington @ 24, Noren @ 16, Willett @ 32 and Gonzalez @ 55. Decided I had missed all the value so I laid out a bit on the Frys.com Open. Backed Bud Cauley, Vijay Singh, Jonas Blixt, Ernie Els, Luke Guthrie, Gary Woodland, Patrick Cantlay, Bily Horschel and Nicholas Colsaerts.
I can now a) Green up for a profit of 40 per cent b) Halve my remaining exposure and leave 4 of the top five in the betting good winners and Herschel a mega-winner. c) Stick and risk 45 per cent of my intial exposure. Any advice, please. |