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another good field this week
my 3 bets are kaymer,quiros and bjorn all 3 have good course form and should be approaching peak form.
my 3 bets are kaymer,quiros and bjorn all 3 have good course form and should be approaching peak form.
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kingston 100/1 2nd c/d last year...20th last week....might be early value
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Avoid all who played last week is my tip!If rory has sorted out he's driving will be hard to stop,rocky the value bet.
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Early thoughts are Mannassaro and Coetzee. Also think Victor Dubuisson is an interesting back to lay proposition with calm conditions.
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Anders Hansen without doubt for me....just had 2 decent weeks in the desert tourns finishing 12th and 14th.....2 good solid final rounds in both and im sure he has just been gearing himself up for this after his 2nd last year....expecting a big show from him.
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am on nice form lately with 2 wins in last 2 weeks with rock and lawrie also a place on hanson and gonnet this week
this week i will be dabbing in both europe and america quite fancy a hansen this week, good course form and playing decent golf feel a big week is coming though m kaymer, also good course form, has got better each week this year and feel he will win this one gonnet, had a good feeling about him last week and got him at 300/1 feel he can go better this week price slashed to around 50s but still worth it i think also feel hanson will go really well challenged last 2 weeks before his blow up 2 weeks ago his odds very short though was hoping for around 33 think i will leave him this week |
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also maybe jamie donaldson forgotto add him
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In Dubai I really did fancy Gonnet but so does everyone else and even at 66/1 he would have to be a borderline pick as he is winless in 196 starts and this is a top quality field. I do think Dyson is a very big price at 50/1 as he often starts around 25/33 these days. His course form isn't that bad as he has finished 7th twice here and judging from this quote he is always happy to return "Something about this place that I really like, really like. I like the place, I like it as a whole. I like everything about it. So you're always good in spirits when you come and play here."
He played pretty well in Abu Dhabi where he led the putting stats and was saved the ravages of the wind in Qatar on a course he really dislikes. How he can be a bigger price than Coetzee and Colsaerts who struggle to win is beyond me. Jose Maria Olazabal is a stab in the dark but he has played well twice this season and on the other start in Abu Dhabi he said he was distracted by Ryder Cup duties. His best finish last season was here when 15th and of course he won here in 1998 on one of his few appearances. |
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TMM,
Agreed. I have had Gonnet the last 2 weeks as high as 500s and traded successfully, 55s this week is a bad bet and I will not be taking that, I would need 130s before any interest. I have alot of orders in, with the wind set to be a factor again, I can not think to back Rory @ 4-1 although he will surely contend. I am avoiding the favourites until in-play. |
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Im never one to complain, however Sky Bet have laid me a QUID EW at 750's (only asked for 10 EW) yet kept the price up. Surely thats a liberty?
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I think there is a bit of value around. I'm looking at a pair of SAFers in Kingston & Horne for perhaps a placing.
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Backed Jaidee at 150's with Tote/Fred. 3rd in 2010 and a few other decent positions over the years.
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Interesting to see peoples thoughts on Gonnet. 55/1 does look a little shy from a value perspective, but he has played very well the last 2 tournaments and did well here last year as well. I may have a small interest if his price drifts.
I also like the look of a couple of others already mentioned - in James Kingston and JMO. Again both have played well lately and both have course form. Rory is a worthy favourite but is a ridiculous price - simply cannot entertain the idea of backing someone that short with the poor win ration that he has. He puts himself in contention virtually every other week but just can't close out. Westwood has not really hit form yet, his class has allowed him to flirt with the leaderboard without every really looking like winning so far this year. Same could be said of Kaymer who has not started the year firing on all cylinders. So I will be leaving the top 3 alone this week. I backed Hanson last week and have been really impressed with his game so far this year. Forgive him his last round 2 events back when he folded under the pressure of playing with Tiger (my take on it anyway). He looks to be improving to me, and was so unlucky not to sink some putts on Sunday - but for which he would have given Lawrie something to think about. I will be backing Hanson, Bjorn (again has been impressive), Lawrie - who is in such good form you cannot leave him out, Colsearts, Kingston, Olazabal and Gonzalez. The later has good form here and really played well on Sunday, so hoping his form continues into this tournament. I don't invest heavily but will probably go with:- £40 on Hanson £40 on Bjorn £20 on lawrie £20 on Colesarts and a tenner on the others to include Gonnet as well if his price drifts a little |
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Final pick in Dubai (may have a look at first rd leader once tee times/weather known) goes to Victor Dubuisson - 0.25 ew 40/1 top Continental European and 0.1 ew 125/1 outright. He has improved every time he has played a course for the second time and had three really good rounds here last season. An improving very talented young player who I think will go onto multiple tour wins in time.
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Main bet Anders Hansen has reasonable course form as mentioned and seems to be playing well in the desert. My two at bigger prices will be Soren Hansen, showing slight return to form and has a done ok at the track previously, and Henrik Stenson, on current form should probably be a thousand but pre 2010 record in Dubai is excellent and if game did click price could collapse.
GL all. |
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Main bet Anders Hansen has reasonable course form as mentioned and seems to be playing well in the desert. My two at bigger prices will be Soren Hansen, showing slight return to form and has a done ok at the track previously, and Henrik Stenson, on current form should probably be a thousand but pre 2010 record in Dubai is excellent and if game did click price could collapse.
GL all. |
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Henrik Stenson would be a great look bet for most of these desert events if he wasn't in abysmal form. He'd probably be circa 25/1 on top form.
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I'm listening to all what you guys are saying and concur that ANDERS Hanssen looks to have a real chance but what is putting me off is the price. On the other hand what about his namesake, SOREN, who had a good tournament last week, I am already on at 110. I must give another chance to MONASSERO at 80 and have also included JIMINEZ at 85 and COETZEE at 55. I dont think you need to be a big hitter on this course, very much a thinking mans course. I was keen on Bjorn but price too short....McIllroy must be the worst value bet I have ever seen. GL to all.
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Schick - backing Coetzee and then saying dont think you need to be a big hitter on this course, very much a thinking mans course is a complete contradiction!
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McIlroy is not the worst value bet, though many people seem to think that. I guess that's why the bookies don't mind people not backing him because they don't have to pay out on all his wins and top 5s!
I actually think Anders has one of the more agreeable prices at the head of the market. |
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crows..Anders Hansen opened up 33s at Skybet....within 10 mins he was 25s...look at Oddschecker and he is a mass of blue...
I think you are correct re his price,i was lucky enough to get him on here at 40s,38s,and 36s..... |
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TMM,
Agree again regarding Dubuisson (muskateer). What are your views on Felipe Aguilar? I am a fan of his and think he will win this season. A very good driver and iron player, hits it plenty far enough and @ 400+ is my jackpot win this week. He shot a 77 last week then came back with 67 and 68 for a good finish. |
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TMM, also what about Willet 200s and Donaldson 120s I have also got these two as again I am a fan and think they could win.
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Tee times are up.....
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Yeeehaaa. with 3 par 5s on the back 9, you want a morning tee time from hole number 10!
Aguilar, Willet, Donaldson, Olesen and Bjorn,  |
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Aguilar - agreed regularly overlooked but think this is too big an event for him
Donaldson - finally drifting out to the price he should be - a traders dream but a backers nightmare - one day he might fall over the winning line Willett - a constant source of disappointment |
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thanks TMM, but there is value there and thats me all over
 they only have to contend to swap over to the big boys |
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ericthecat 07 Feb 12 12:14
Yeeehaaa. with 3 par 5s on the back 9, you want a morning tee time from hole number 10! Aguilar, Willet, Donaldson, Olesen and Bjorn, And Anders Hansen!... |
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golfnut, yep I like A.Hansen, but its a skinny price. For me it was either him or Bjorn I took Bjorn
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Anyone here think Martin Kaymer will have a decent shot at winning it
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Also had a bit of rob Rock as he is out with Rory....was not phased by Tiger,maybe it brings best out in him playing with "names"...
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you never know with Kaymer these days, since he tried to develop a draw his game is far less consistent! For me I am avoiding and just watching his game at the moment.
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eric,,,,you didnt put your reserves in comp..
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golfnut, I know just lazy
 i just do that as abit of fun and spend very little time on it to be honest |
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First round leader...
Rory is 8/1 e/w and has been FRL last two starts around here and was T1 FRL in his last start... |
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Rory seems to be first round leader more than he actually wins. I always say 'he aint gonna lead again!' and he does it again and again.
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going with those in a touch of form and hope one falls over the line,
p hanson 24 a,hanson 30 n colsearts 38 franny mol 50 |
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the only line they will fall over is the cut line mate...after studying this competition very hard i cannot see past the obvious mr mcilroy.at the current odds hes a big lay,but knowing mr paddy power he will enhance rorys odds on the eve of the competition.hopefullty the enhance odds will be 6/1 or bigger and at that ill be a big player each way....good luck happy punters.
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you must have studied for hours to come up with potentialy the best player and favourite,to make it easier next week just right fav on the slip ,job done in 5 seconds,
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looking at your tips and professional knowledge of the game i sit here and laugh.id laugh even more if i was your bookmaker as my bank balance would always be big.as ive stated above boys before the clown interferred ill be betting mr mcilroy only if his odds rise above 6/1....
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