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Any early thoughts?
Can Sned go back-to-back?
Can Sned go back-to-back?
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taken 250/1 ew on paddy power on tommy gainey seems decent odds.was leading this last year going into final day shot a triple bogey on 17th to end chances.
Keegan Bradley for me, going lovely on day 2 last week when a 7 derailed him
Page 1, Rule 1 of Golf betting.
Desert Golf = Must back Laird & Piercy.
Desert Golf = Must back Laird & Piercy.
Pretty decent rules sundog. Piercy a fancy last week and I think again this week!
Glutton for punishment - sticking with DA this week - last week was -8 on the South - a score only matched by Sned.
Career best finish in the Sony as well + he finally made the cut here last season when 18th and think he might enjoy the fun and games that surround Scottsdale.
Career best finish in the Sony as well + he finally made the cut here last season when 18th and think he might enjoy the fun and games that surround Scottsdale.
So Far Moore and Harrison Frazar for me...130's very tasty for a guy with two top 5's in his last three outtings
I've been trying for too long to make some clear sense of this event but to me it's wide open. I think I'll just stick some small pre-tourney bets on for interest and just focus on the fantasy/comp.
Four solid ew punts for me this week (I hope lol). All ew.
B Haas 33/1
B Crane 50/1
J Rollins 50/1
S Cink 70/1
Gl with all your bets
B Haas 33/1
B Crane 50/1
J Rollins 50/1
S Cink 70/1
Gl with all your bets
Be great to see Arron Oberholser back on a golf course for the 1st time since the 2009 Frys in Arizona, warmin up for Pebble Beach next week 
DA Points - 0.5 ew 66/1 (6 places)
YE Yang - 0.25 ew 66/1
Harrison Frazar - 0.25 ew 100/1 (6 places)
Jeff Maggert - 0.25 ew 150/1
YE Yang - 0.25 ew 66/1
Harrison Frazar - 0.25 ew 100/1 (6 places)
Jeff Maggert - 0.25 ew 150/1
Ian Poulter finished off 2011 nicely...wife just had baby so might be in good frame of mind in the desert....which he likes....worth a stab i think.
Aaron Baddeley
Vijay Singh
Both previous winners who played well last week.
Vijay Singh
Both previous winners who played well last week.
.
I liked the look of Cameron Tringale last week. I'm convinced that he's going to get over the line at some stage this year, this week would be nice. All round solid game, so have had some E/W @ 100s. Only other bet so far, Jason Dufner E/W @ 45.
Bill Haas, solid form last year before blowing up on the sunday, raised a level since then, 33,s fair against this lot after a good blow out last week.
I think tmm should give Michael Thompson another chance.
Got put off by his 17.9% DA stat last week - truly awful!!
I backed Piercy last week and he does look good this week on paper, but anyone who is backing him at odds similar to Bubba Watson and Keegan Bradley needs to hang their betting gloves up.
Insanity.
Insanity.
I had five players listed for the Phoenix Open and have tipped four - the one that got away and will probably win is John Rollins as although I had a few quid at Ladbrokes who opened at 66/1 that was the lowest price I was happy to back him at.
DA Points - slightly disappointed with his 8th place last week but I take heart from the fact that he actually tied with Snedeker at eight under for the three rounds played on the South course. He has had a great start to the year - which included his career best finish at the Sony. Last year he finally made the cut at Scottsdale finishing 18th and in his current form I can see him finishing a lot lower.
YE Yang - strikes me as a horses for courses player and has been 3rd and 8th here in two starts. He was a bit rusty last week but his odds are worth a small play - the 95 on Betfair is quite insulting really!
Harrison Frazar - I have had this in mind for Frazar for a while as it is one tournamnet he has come close to winning several times and now he has the monkey off his back he may prevail. He got off to a cracking start to the year with a 5th and 2nd in Hawaii and I am happy to forgive the missed cut at the Humana - at least it means his price has doubled. Three times he has come close in Scottsdale - in 99 he was 3rd entering the final round but was already 7 shots back and slumped to a 73 finishing 6th. In 2003 he led into the final round and remained competitive to finish 3rd. In 2005 he again was 3rd but was too far back and shot a very poor 78. Now he has won I can see him gaining revenge on a course that he says fits his eye perfectly.
Sticking with players in form in the unlikely shape of Jeff Maggert. The veteran has been injured for much of the last four years - initially with a broken rib and then last year underwent shoulder surgery. He is now fully fit and it certainly shows, he was 13th at Q school and in his first start this year led the Sony entering the final round but played poorly on the Sunday. He put that behind him and finished 5th at the Humana and now leads the scoring average and all round stats on tour for the year (albeit form just two starts). Going back over the years he has some good finishes at Phoenix including a 3rd, 8th,10th and 11th so he can certainly play the course. In his current form I think he could be a surprise package this week.
DA Points - slightly disappointed with his 8th place last week but I take heart from the fact that he actually tied with Snedeker at eight under for the three rounds played on the South course. He has had a great start to the year - which included his career best finish at the Sony. Last year he finally made the cut at Scottsdale finishing 18th and in his current form I can see him finishing a lot lower.
YE Yang - strikes me as a horses for courses player and has been 3rd and 8th here in two starts. He was a bit rusty last week but his odds are worth a small play - the 95 on Betfair is quite insulting really!
Harrison Frazar - I have had this in mind for Frazar for a while as it is one tournamnet he has come close to winning several times and now he has the monkey off his back he may prevail. He got off to a cracking start to the year with a 5th and 2nd in Hawaii and I am happy to forgive the missed cut at the Humana - at least it means his price has doubled. Three times he has come close in Scottsdale - in 99 he was 3rd entering the final round but was already 7 shots back and slumped to a 73 finishing 6th. In 2003 he led into the final round and remained competitive to finish 3rd. In 2005 he again was 3rd but was too far back and shot a very poor 78. Now he has won I can see him gaining revenge on a course that he says fits his eye perfectly.
Sticking with players in form in the unlikely shape of Jeff Maggert. The veteran has been injured for much of the last four years - initially with a broken rib and then last year underwent shoulder surgery. He is now fully fit and it certainly shows, he was 13th at Q school and in his first start this year led the Sony entering the final round but played poorly on the Sunday. He put that behind him and finished 5th at the Humana and now leads the scoring average and all round stats on tour for the year (albeit form just two starts). Going back over the years he has some good finishes at Phoenix including a 3rd, 8th,10th and 11th so he can certainly play the course. In his current form I think he could be a surprise package this week.
Afternoon all.
All bets on for the week now!
As I put on my original post on this thread my main 2 selections for the week are Piercy & Laird.
Crows Eye I take your point re Piercy's price now but I was very happy with the 66s for top 6 I got with Ladbrokes on Monday.
When Piercy first came on tour a few years back it didn't take long to latch on to the fact that he loves Desert golf. This has lead to few near misses over the years such as when he lead this halfway & infact the Desert event he had the worst record in was the one he actually ended up winning at Reno.
Throw in the current form & the fact that he has now got over the line & is a much more confident player now and he is a must for this week. I'd say 50s is a fair price.
Laird is another obvious who has won in the Desert and rarely if ever plays badly at a Desert event so despite the skinny odds you can't leave him out of the equation. I took 25s top 6 Lads on Monday.
Beyond that my other main bets are Dufner, Garrigus & Gates.
I've done well over the yrs backing players who nearly got their first win in an event at the same event following yr, Ryuji at the old Bellsouth & Mahan at Travelers spring to mind & Dufner fits that bill.
Garrigus is an obvious selection based on his good showing at Humana coupled with attributes for cose & local residency & I was happy with 100s.
Bobby Gates is a player I like who seems to be finding his feet now following on from Q school & I think will be suited by the course.
Finally I've had a nominal half stake on 2 Gloves for the same reason as backing Dufner in the hope he can kick start his season here & lastly Kokrak, who although he is yet to get going this season is a proven winner who I had earmarked at the beginning of the year as a big priced outsider who could go well in this event & felt he was still worth a few E/W pennies at the 250s available earlier in the week.
Good luck everyone!
All bets on for the week now!
As I put on my original post on this thread my main 2 selections for the week are Piercy & Laird.
Crows Eye I take your point re Piercy's price now but I was very happy with the 66s for top 6 I got with Ladbrokes on Monday.
When Piercy first came on tour a few years back it didn't take long to latch on to the fact that he loves Desert golf. This has lead to few near misses over the years such as when he lead this halfway & infact the Desert event he had the worst record in was the one he actually ended up winning at Reno.
Throw in the current form & the fact that he has now got over the line & is a much more confident player now and he is a must for this week. I'd say 50s is a fair price.
Laird is another obvious who has won in the Desert and rarely if ever plays badly at a Desert event so despite the skinny odds you can't leave him out of the equation. I took 25s top 6 Lads on Monday.
Beyond that my other main bets are Dufner, Garrigus & Gates.
I've done well over the yrs backing players who nearly got their first win in an event at the same event following yr, Ryuji at the old Bellsouth & Mahan at Travelers spring to mind & Dufner fits that bill.
Garrigus is an obvious selection based on his good showing at Humana coupled with attributes for cose & local residency & I was happy with 100s.
Bobby Gates is a player I like who seems to be finding his feet now following on from Q school & I think will be suited by the course.
Finally I've had a nominal half stake on 2 Gloves for the same reason as backing Dufner in the hope he can kick start his season here & lastly Kokrak, who although he is yet to get going this season is a proven winner who I had earmarked at the beginning of the year as a big priced outsider who could go well in this event & felt he was still worth a few E/W pennies at the 250s available earlier in the week.
Good luck everyone!
I had fancied Piercy for this, but he was available at 125s~ last week and I couldn't back him at half the price without feeling jipped. No way in hell would I be backing him at a quarter of the price, it's almost laughable.
Have an outside fancy on both Justin Leonard and Andres Romero. I'm not doing anything massive because I'm using a different selection method which may or may not be worthwhile.
Have an outside fancy on both Justin Leonard and Andres Romero. I'm not doing anything massive because I'm using a different selection method which may or may not be worthwhile.
just a few here in order of wins
Blanks
Noh
Stallings
De Jonge
Yang
Haas
Blanks
Noh
Stallings
De Jonge
Yang
Haas
Sorry Crows Eye, have to disagree with you. Piercy was 125s or thereabouts last week because having missed the cut the week before, he was then playing in an event he had previously had played in twice with figures of 20,MC in his two starts.
He went on to finish 13th and now tees it up in an event he has played in 3 times, has lead halfway and has finishes of 15, 8 & 6 in the 3 starts. Throw in to that a 10th & 28th in last 2 starts in Desert Timberlake event & the win last yr in Desert Reno event and he justifies being at least half the odds of last week.
Who knows after saying all that he may well end up missing the cut but I would certainly much rather be on him at 66s or even 50s this week compared to 125s last week.
He went on to finish 13th and now tees it up in an event he has played in 3 times, has lead halfway and has finishes of 15, 8 & 6 in the 3 starts. Throw in to that a 10th & 28th in last 2 starts in Desert Timberlake event & the win last yr in Desert Reno event and he justifies being at least half the odds of last week.
Who knows after saying all that he may well end up missing the cut but I would certainly much rather be on him at 66s or even 50s this week compared to 125s last week.
If only it was as easy as that sundog, we'd all be rich.
The 20th finish was good enough for me to go on, and I'm pretty sure his game suited the course very well last week. His putting just let him down the week before but was in good order apart from that.
You're basically betting on if the putter gets hot.
Now he's been sussed out and you're getting half to a quarter of the price. It's almost insulting.
Course form is a great guide, but it's also the most obvious thing people look at. It's not hard for an odds compiler to see that. The course form for Schwartzel (Joburg) and Kaymer (Abu Dhabi) was superb, yet they both missed the cut.
Sometimes you just have to look beyond that and take a reasonable punt.
The 20th finish was good enough for me to go on, and I'm pretty sure his game suited the course very well last week. His putting just let him down the week before but was in good order apart from that.
You're basically betting on if the putter gets hot.
Now he's been sussed out and you're getting half to a quarter of the price. It's almost insulting.
Course form is a great guide, but it's also the most obvious thing people look at. It's not hard for an odds compiler to see that. The course form for Schwartzel (Joburg) and Kaymer (Abu Dhabi) was superb, yet they both missed the cut.
Sometimes you just have to look beyond that and take a reasonable punt.
fair comment Crows Eye, agree that sometimes you have to look beyond the obvious & I also agree I wouldn't now be getting on at 40s if I wasn't on already.
you can also have a danger with the obvious course form/current form selection that quite probably a player puts too much pressure on themselves for a big week and doesn't deliver. Crane at Sawgrass last yr springs to mind.
Time will tell anyway & good luck for the week!
you can also have a danger with the obvious course form/current form selection that quite probably a player puts too much pressure on themselves for a big week and doesn't deliver. Crane at Sawgrass last yr springs to mind.
Time will tell anyway & good luck for the week!
Thanks sundog and you too, I'd not be surprised if Piercy made all for you.
Sorry to butt in but you forgot the best example of player course form from last week....Kaymer 1,2,1,1.......MC
No need to be sorry but I did mention both Schwartzel and Kaymer.
Mr B Gay seems to be drifting like a barge.
Anyone know of any injury news?
Cheers.
Anyone know of any injury news?
Cheers.
Just missed about with bits and pieces. Followed TMM with biggest bets. GL.
Due to Steve Palmer mostly. I expect a decent showing then a fade.
Well piercy has never really got going although still has outside chance of a place.
Other than that, assuming Levin doesn't fall to bits i'm relying on Dufner for place money hopefully.
Other than that, assuming Levin doesn't fall to bits i'm relying on Dufner for place money hopefully.
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