General Betting
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The soccer/football season is over, so let me give you something to think about with regard to horseracing betting.
In UK horseracing, many of the races are handicaps, in that the runners carry a weight designated by the official handicapper in such a way (in theory) to give them all an equal chance of winning and that if they run to form the race will end as a multiple dead heat.
For various reasons this never happens.
So, let us suppose that in an 11 runner handicap all the runners have an equal chance of winning. Mathematically, therefore, the chance of any runner winning is 10/1 (11.0 on the exchange).
For many reasons the market does not see it like this.
In this example, a Class 3 handicap chosen at random, the BSP’s of the 11 runners was:
3.20, 6.63, 6.80, 7.44
15.5, 17.8, 23.3, 31.9, 39.3, 52.4, 95.0
Historically, in Flat Handicaps, one of the first 3 in the betting, on average, win 63% of all races.
So, where is the value? The 4 runners below11.00, or the 7 above? Is it better to have 4 horses running for you or 7? In the long run would you be better back Dutching all the runners below the mathematical chance odds or those above?
In the above example the respective Dutch odds were 1.34 and 4.0
(Mathematically, 4 chances in 11 is 36.4%, 7 chances in 11 is 63.6%)
It is something you can easily test for yourself, including if the class of race is a factor.
FWIW you need proprietary software to place your bets. I also prefer a minimum of 9 runners in the race.
I have used BSP’s odds for illustrative purposes. In reality I would hit the button (or not) sometime in the few minutes before the off depending on the individual circumstances and current odds in each individual race.
In UK horseracing, many of the races are handicaps, in that the runners carry a weight designated by the official handicapper in such a way (in theory) to give them all an equal chance of winning and that if they run to form the race will end as a multiple dead heat.
For various reasons this never happens.
So, let us suppose that in an 11 runner handicap all the runners have an equal chance of winning. Mathematically, therefore, the chance of any runner winning is 10/1 (11.0 on the exchange).
For many reasons the market does not see it like this.
In this example, a Class 3 handicap chosen at random, the BSP’s of the 11 runners was:
3.20, 6.63, 6.80, 7.44
15.5, 17.8, 23.3, 31.9, 39.3, 52.4, 95.0
Historically, in Flat Handicaps, one of the first 3 in the betting, on average, win 63% of all races.
So, where is the value? The 4 runners below11.00, or the 7 above? Is it better to have 4 horses running for you or 7? In the long run would you be better back Dutching all the runners below the mathematical chance odds or those above?
In the above example the respective Dutch odds were 1.34 and 4.0
(Mathematically, 4 chances in 11 is 36.4%, 7 chances in 11 is 63.6%)
It is something you can easily test for yourself, including if the class of race is a factor.
FWIW you need proprietary software to place your bets. I also prefer a minimum of 9 runners in the race.
I have used BSP’s odds for illustrative purposes. In reality I would hit the button (or not) sometime in the few minutes before the off depending on the individual circumstances and current odds in each individual race.
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