General Betting
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This is getting a sad sad place. Every single market covered with fast bots and eventually it has spooked all the not so efficient players. all around absolute sad place there are no new customers only bots and seasoned pros. look at the pre match oh my god only couple of grands gets matched from courtsiders thats all. basketball dead, nba dead, euroleaue dead and so on so on.
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The whole place changed at the start of premium charge '07 ish ?
there were a few issues that needed addressing but that was one of the more cynical and heavy handed moves followed by a lack of investment and promotion of the exchange itself, in more recent years they've tried to address that slightly but without removing PC there remains a lack of market makers/liquidity providers in anything of a lower profile... crucially a lot of good will and word of mouth recommendation disappeared overnight as well that for something like the exchange platform was invaluable.... all that said from a purely company based perspective, I'm not sure too much has gone wrong |
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Just move any possible large profit to Smarkets before the market completes.
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Good points I used to recommend betfair to others, but I stopped doing it, about ten years ago sadly.
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The Premium Charge was introduced in September 2008, and I hit the lifetime limit in 2012. As Brentford says, the goodwill disappeared at that point. When a company changes the rules retroactively, it tends to leave a sour taste. Niche sports like basketball only see in-play action from courtsiders or idiots, who soon learn that the playing field isn't level and understandably give up.
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PC sorted one thing out. wild match fixing in tennis and in second tier football such as B series German 2 league and so on. Gosh I miss those days when Lodra, Gabashvilli, Dolgopolov, Dinara Safina, Azarenka with her "health problems" and bunch of italians and south americans where at their best in these things. Kind of a got rid of accounts who drained money out of total liquidity pool in a very fast way but there has never been an idea how to replace. Because there is no simply real liquidity anymore. There is no way you can really get in and out of market for example during a sit down in tennis. Basketball oh my good. Nba these playoffs. Only tactical entries no overreactions or underreactions with corrections. No mug money who can push the market maker around for a couple of ticks even. I remember those day when nba th best money was made during HT, especially if the half ended with an unexpected run. oh well.
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even WC darts this year was a sad place not so sad as nba but way worse than years ago. darts was my facourite even though i kinda discovered it pretty late in my trading journey.
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even WC darts this year was a sad place not so sad as nba but way worse than years ago. darts was my facourite even though i kinda discovered it pretty late in my trading journey.
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And I do think as they got rid of potential big match fixing. betfair themselves turned into big trading whales who can hunt safely and patiently.
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Believe it or not even politics is littered with courtsiders! These are "agents" at the election counts who have visual access to the piles of ballots and bet live on Betfair. I see it all the time, usually about an hour before the official result announced.
I am shocked! You'll be telling us next that there are insiders on the Next Manager markets... |
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IMHO the premium charge killed all the liquidity.
The days after it was introduced in 2008 during the great recession the markets started drying up. All the goodwill and word of mouth about the exchange had evaporated in an instance. It was no longer about punter v punter .A 3rd entity had entered the equation. Once Punter A beat Punter B on a particular market the winning punter A was then subject to a very hefty 20%,40% , or 60% deduction from his account come 12 noon on a Wednesday every week. That my friends is when the rot set in and it has only gotten worse . When the PC charge was introduced ,those affected like myself received an e-mail from betfair. The E=mail said that the money taken from my account every week will go improving the exchange and increasing the liquidity. Guess what!? the opposite happened.The markets just dried up and become filled with bots that only made things worse. it will come to a point in the very near future that the exchange is totally unusable and that any value to be had will be thru the sportsbooks that as we all know slaughter any successful exchange punter will massive account restrictions and bans for daring to show a small profit . It's not gambling any more folks and I get the feeling that there is a vacuum left for someone to come in and make a lot of money if they can create a company that is similar to that one that was created at the time when the 'death to the bookmaker' coffin was carried into a racecourse. |
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Maybe their will be other exchanges starting up that don't have Premium Charge which attracts heavy speculators?
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The problem every other exchange that's come along since has discovered is that liquidity breeds liquidity. If you don't have it, you are going to struggle to get people to bet with you. Why would they, if half the time they're not going to be getting matched (*unless they're not at all price-sensitive)?
This is why (OK, one of the reasons) the Premium Charge had such a massive negative effect on BF's ability to grow. It meant that many marginal markets became not worth the effort for many layers to play, ultimately leading to their (the markets') demise. Gradually, things have been whittled away, and fiddled with, to such an extent that the user experience today is a country mile from what it was when PC was introduced. It's not all PC that's to blame, but it definitely accounts for a good chunk of why we are where we are now. The introduction of stricter affordability checks could be absolutely huge in the long-term viability for exchange betting full-stop. |
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Nice rants by tinkyvinky and pmbets--pity they haven't provided a single statistic to back up
your claims. In the Euro outright you can have £46K at 2.66 £49K at 3.4 £64K at 4 or £14K at 11. 100.7% book. It's not gambling any more folks It's never been gambling for PC payers but for the other 99% it's gambling and always will be. I've been here since the start and IMO the exchange is as busy as it's ever been. We've had numerous threads like this but no one has ever provided any evidence to back up their case. |
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JML - Of course the biggest markets in the biggest tournaments are still busy, but take a look at other sports and it's a different story. So many of the side markets that I used to love just don't exist anymore. If people want a bet, they are forced to bet on the mainstream markets because that's (in a lot of cases) all that's left. What BF has done (for their own benefit) with 100s of handicap lines, total points etc, totally defies logic on a betting exchange.
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JML - Of course the biggest markets in the biggest tournaments are still busy, but take a look at other sports and it's a different story.
It's always been the same. If people want a bet, they are forced to bet on the mainstream markets because that's (in a lot of cases) all that's left. That's just not true Over 70 markets for the Euro semis and over 50 for games like Dallas v Vancover!!!!! So many of the side markets that I used to love just don't exist anymore. So many??--name a dozen and explain why you used to love them.What great satifaction did you get from betting in these markets that no one else showed any intrest in. What BF has done (for their own benefit) with 100s of handicap lines, total points etc, totally defies logic on a betting exchange. Don't understand your point--there are still Asian handicaps and Goal Lines. What Betfair have done is to get rid of markets where there was next to no turnover. |
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i only bet in horse racing markets and the liquidity seems pretty low now compared to what it was
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JML - I'm not a football punter, which you seem to be based on your responses.
Over my two weeks short of 20 years here liquidity has fizzled out almost completely on many sports. If you don't think the likes of darts, snooker, rugby union, rugby league, horse racing place markets are considerably thinner now than they were in the past, we will have to agree to disagree. And that's after BF has culled (or replaced with inferior "products") a lot of the more interesting side markets in those sports. PC HAS accounted for a lot of the lost liquidity (and then the markets themselves because no-one wants to play once the market maker has gone - see my 1412 post) on those sports, because I used to provide it. Rugby union and rugby league matches used to get three handicap lines, which was perfect for trading, then it became one, and then in their infinite wisdom, they replaced that with the 100+ line abominations we have now, where only those trading on API software are even aware that prices exist on any line other than the three (consecutive ones) currently displayed on the BF website (they change depending on the status of the match)... That is designed purely so BF can offer circa 110% books on every line. It isn't designed for anyone wanting to trade the game... |
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I'd expect horse racing market share to fall from one year to another.
That's down to the sports declining popularity and there's nothing Betfair can do about that. You claim that those sports are considerably thinnerand then complain that minor markets have been removed. If the main market is so weak what is the point in having more than 2 or 3 minor markets. This South Africa v Br Lions game looks like it might be a popular RU game. Are you saying there will be no handicap lines on this game? |
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I'm trying to explain why those markets are thinner. You seem to have an issue with people saying it is linked to PC. Do you think more money gets matched in a market where there is money on the screen than when there is not?
I am telling you there will probably be 406 handicap lines on that game, like there are on the Super League game that is currently taking place (£14,499.76 matched in total with 7 mins to go). This handicap policy DOES NOT WORK on an EXCHANGE. It has stopped me from playing on these markets, and when the match market is 1/10, like this was at KO, it becomes yet another match that you just end up sitting out, and so the death spiral of liquidity continues. There is only one way it will go. |
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Latolomne--I've been on here even longer than you have,I've paid PC since 2008 and probably we've read the same threads over the years.
I remember one a few years after PC1 that showed the amounts matched had continued to increase every year. There have been countless threads about liquidity and what effects PC has had on liquidity but I've yet to see any one provide a shread of solid evidence of any decrease. The number of people paying 40%+ should decrease over time because it will be much harder for those replacing those that retire to reach £250K. Sorry,I'didnt understand what you meant about hundreads of handicap lines. I'd much prefer to have every 5 or even 10 points. And perhaps a seperate market added a few hours before KO with the 50/50 line. They duplicate some of goal lines on the football with seperate markets.(over/under 0.5 etc) |
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I too have paid PC since 2008 and still pay 40% now on the (much reduced) amount I do still bet here, but the number of sports that applies to is falling off a cliff.
Frog's analysis showed that growth plateaued after the introduction of PC2 and started to decrease thereafter. It's a shame he's not still here now. I have no doubt there are sports that are still growing (20/20 cricket, in its various guises, for instance) but the sports where that is the case are surely in a significant minority, with the opposite being the case in many. You're lucky, the only time we get treated to separate handicap lines these days is generally during the Rugby World Cup  It used to be such a good market. Same with the tennis handicaps (though there's *only* 64 lines for those at Wimbledon now  )As I say, it's not all PC's fault (slow pics, BF taking its eye off the ball where the Exchange was concerned, shutting down access in certain countries, abject customer service, etc have all contributed), but it has played a part. |
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PC certainly has played a part, but when your whole business model moves to taking 40-60% of profits from those who are betting after the fact all you are going to have left is a business that eats itself.
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It's a bit of mistake to assume that PC payers are just those betting 'after the fact' if I correctly understand the suggestion..
any successful trader would very quickly be in the realm of pc especially if specialising in markets with long period outcomes and therefore multiple transactions you could literally be a £2 bits and pieces trader and still fall foul of a PC charge at the lower level... the fact that it could and undoubtedly does happen in that fashion is a guarantee that some of the 40-60% level are purely legitimate punters/ traders I strongly felt even pre PC charge that a more aggressive commitment to warning naïve punters that they could be significantly behind courtsiders or other perfectly reasonable methods of close/closer to live source would have done far more to stop the inevitable disadvantaged drain from more casual punters... The current climate is arguably even more skewed but for reasons I wouldn't care to advance on... |
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don't know what the record for turnover on a football match is,but I wouldn't be surprised if
it's broken in the final.Might have been broken in last nights semi. About 1.5m before KO in the correct score market is not something i remember seeing before. |
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It would definitely break the record if this match took place in the 2008-2012 period.
Back in 2008 the euro group matches were matching in the 20's millions on match odds. I think the 2010 world cup outright market did over £80m. The Wimbledon final in 08 also did £50m. That was the sweet spot period. Don't know if anything more recent has beat these records. Last US election did over £2Billion so that beats everything. |
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Business is booming on exchanges where no PC is levied.
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2008 and pc and the changes in chatrooms as everyone was going where are the 1000posts used to be on usa racing every night sportbook added
no way to make one bet due to pc all makes the downfall of punters leaving in masses rem the yuppie years of late 1980s when tax of 40% added on to the shockmarket and they did go it very simper to pc |
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I remember those days pre-2008. US racing was big back then, and still a novelty. There were so many mugs who would back a rag at 14.0, when the book percentage was still about 110%, simply because someone in the studio (Dale Mckeown for instance) put in a word for it. There was a scramble to get the links up to all the USA tracks (not allowed, but Betfair was only half hearted in policing this). US players didn't even seem to record and watch the races, and relied soley on reports in DRF. It seemed back then that those days would go on for ever.
But suddenly websites like calracing.com put race replay links on their racecards and the markets were instantly clued up. PC was introduced. UK punters blocked from some USA websites. Extra tiers of PC introduced. Commission rates tinkered with (after P.Nicholls won £1 million Betfair bonus, but this was probably just a coincidence...not) so that nearly everyone was put on 4.9% or 5%. Then some USA tracks were not available for betfair customers (which included KY derby). Goodwill was lost overnight. But we will never get it back, now that exchanges are owned by big bookies. |
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It seems to me that the real winners in online betting is the bookies they now have a far better understanding of the pro gambler and their methods and their business is now much larger.
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Did the purple**** ever introduce pc?
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daq
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All the other exchanges have schemes where winners are penalised.
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Purpledaq have never had Premium Charge.
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Perhaps not--but they do penalise consistent winners by increasing the commission rate
and it starts at well below £250K. |
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JML is correct..........
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look at darts right now it effing matchplay White - Gurney one fast gut trying to be king. No one cares he s fast he cant get matched anything decent anyways.
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Hardly surprising there's no money there when the pics are generally 3 darts behind live, sometimes more if it's two rapid slingers.
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