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system99
10 Mar 20 11:54
Joined:
Date Joined: 23 Nov 07
| Topic/replies: 1,933 | Blogger: system99's blog
Got up way too early, so been playing around with a bit of software i have, it's amazing how many winning systems are out there.
A very simple one based on a sample size of 23,000 bets.....

English racing, lay every horse between prices of 20.0 and 50.0 on the place market, it has shown a strike rate of 97% and a level points profit of 1500 points over 5 years....

Thank me next year when your all riiich!!! GrinCoolGrin
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Report system99 March 10, 2020 9:57 AM GMT
ps, thats based on betfairs place sp and includes a 5% commision rate.
Report system99 March 10, 2020 10:35 AM GMT
Freakishly consistent aswell!

you can double the sample size too 46,000 bets over 10 years, yeilding over 3k points , even if u did the years individually the strike rate does not deviate more than half a percent from the 97% on any year!!!
Report plotdraw March 11, 2020 9:39 AM GMT
Would a 97% strike rate be exactly what you would expect with a rough average of each lay being around 33/1.
And if you are unfortunate enough to be paying 5% not sure where the profit comes from ?
Report system99 March 11, 2020 9:46 AM GMT
plotdraw - as stated earlier, 5% comm is included, and i'm a little unsure as to where the exact link between 33/1 and 97% comes in?
Report plotdraw March 11, 2020 11:09 AM GMT
I am certainly no mathematician so i am happy to be educated lol but my point is that 33/1 average would mean a 97% strike would be break level and thats before the 5% which would be colossal
Report system99 March 11, 2020 11:48 AM GMT
I do understand what your saying and yes your maths are right,but having a stat like this hold up over A sample of 46k even when split down into individual years is not as common as you'd think, but more importantly I think you keep missing this post

"ps, thats based on betfairs place sp and includes a 5% commision rate."


The profits shown are inclusive of it, meaning with you inferring your paying less so a bigger player just means more profit
Report system99 March 11, 2020 11:56 AM GMT
In case the confusion is you think it's from some sort of calculater giving a math atic equation, it's not, it's from softwar actually calculating from the last 10 years results.
Report plotdraw March 11, 2020 11:56 AM GMT
Yes i understand your figures are inclusive of it but just didn't seem how it would stack up.
Anyway, well done and GL
Report Latalomne March 11, 2020 1:50 PM GMT
Nobody needs to be paying 5% now, FWIW.  Everybody can claim a flat rate 2% commission.
Report system99 March 11, 2020 2:04 PM GMT
thats a good point now the sportsbooks no good to me for bonuses i need to look at that.
I dont do this btw, especially since i dream of 5%, pc charge at 20%+ puts it well outa my range Cry
Report system99 March 11, 2020 2:05 PM GMT
thats a good point now the sportsbooks no good to me for bonuses i need to look at that.
I dont do this btw, especially since i dream of 5%, pc charge at 20%+ puts it well outa my range Cry
Report system99 March 11, 2020 2:05 PM GMT
thats a good point now the sportsbooks no good to me for bonuses i need to look at that.
I dont do this btw, especially since i dream of 5%, pc charge at 20%+ puts it well outa my range Cry
Report system99 March 11, 2020 2:05 PM GMT
stupid forum!
Report Latalomne March 11, 2020 2:29 PM GMT
40% PC here, so I feel your pain  Cry
Report system99 March 11, 2020 2:50 PM GMT
I own thornaby exchange so have heard some proper horror stories about it,shambles imo
Report peckerdunne March 11, 2020 3:20 PM GMT
40 Lat dear god that's crippling
Report dave1357 March 12, 2020 1:26 PM GMT
liquidity is v low at those prices in the place markets, any lay at sp would raise the price.

Are you using flatstats?  Backfitting is a huge danger on that site, the guy who runs it makes a point of warning against it.
Report system99 March 12, 2020 3:29 PM GMT
Nah one called inform, to be honest i was bored, posted tongue in cheek a little, would take too much time and discipline to use unless your into the bot scene, which i'm not.
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