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G Hall
18 Feb 19 15:05
Joined:
Date Joined: 26 Feb 06
| Topic/replies: 44,130 | Blogger: G Hall's blog
I just want to make 14 pounds a day on here what size bank would be required to make this feasible. 14 a day equates to 50K after ten years. It sounds easy but obviously isn't.

I would appreciate some feedback as to a good sound strategy. It is easy when things are going well but when things start to go pear shaped it is a disaster.

I play horses and football, for example was going really well until Messi missed the penalty on Saturday night,and from that point everything I did since has gone against me, which is a common occurrence.

Is there anything I can read or learn that prevents this sort of thing happening again and again.
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Report G Hall March 7, 2019 6:10 PM GMT
Evening Dr C

So start with a bank of a tenner would seem inconceivable to me, for example what is your stake going to be. How long would it take to build a decent size bank, I'm not sure.
Report G Hall March 7, 2019 8:54 PM GMT
I am going to try and grow my bank by 2% per week approximately, now that should be attainable.
Report ericster March 10, 2019 1:02 PM GMT
Lose the targets GH Imo. Just concentrate on not losing.
Report mega88 March 10, 2019 4:28 PM GMT
GHall, invest your time starting a small business or finding a job you enjoy, you won't make any money long term on football. Stop kidding yourself, it's not obtainable ever. It does not matter how good a system you have.
Report mega88 March 10, 2019 4:32 PM GMT
How can you make money on something you have no control over, the only certainty in football is uncertainty, don't believe me start a Fred and I'll follow you.
Report mega88 March 10, 2019 4:44 PM GMT
There is a way though, a path to gold, I've seen it on this very forum,
Report DenzilPenberthy March 10, 2019 7:41 PM GMT
Tony Bloom agrees
Report the old nanny ;-) March 11, 2019 12:29 AM GMT
You would be Better placed Leafleting a couple of hours a day a Bit of fresh air As well , better than  sitting for Hours trying to make £14 Plain
Report the old nanny ;-) March 11, 2019 12:33 AM GMT
Download Gruss or Other trading Software See if you can Judge which way a Market pre race will go . GREEN UP For pennies  and move on ,after a week of it you may well spend the Money on a Lenght of Rope Grin
Report DiscoPete March 11, 2019 12:37 AM GMT
Ok this is a lengthy reply so do as you wish. If you could make £14 a day consistently then why not £150 or £1500? It’s not really about bank size hence the first reply on this thread meaning you’re thinking is flawed from the start. You’d be a handful out of tens of thousands making a consistent profit so why the small sum. A small sum doesn’t mean you’re be more successful than someone applying the same strategy going for £1500. If you could make that a day I’d retire knowing you’ve got the holy grail.  Instead of being profit focussed turn your attention of being loss focussed. Could you take a 20% drawdown on your bank? What about a 50% drawdown? You will have losing months maybe losing years. The best document of this mental challenge is dailyprofit . Com . Au where his goal is a bit larger than yours but it’s all relative. If you can’t afford to lose £10 a month tha your £14 is blown out of the window from the start. 10 PTS profit a month is good going but you have to be long term focussed which 99% of people aren’t and trying to get £14 a day i know you’ll be a loser.  What happens when you’re down £150 for the month which is very realistic? Will you chase (probably) to try and get back to your target? You loads then have a bad day and lose all your bank. Instead you should start a bank that you can afford to lose. Then look at stakes no more than 1% of bank. Expect long losing runs and being able to go through the losing runs is the holy grail, if you can overcome that then you’ll be in the top 1% on here. Backing 1.01 shots at £1400 or laying 10+ shots at £14 is a sure fire way to ruin. Good luck but re-orientate yourself to asking what you can afford to lose not how much profit you can make a year othwise you’re a dead cert to wipe out.
Report G Hall March 11, 2019 11:28 AM GMT
Some good posts and excellent one from disco Pete.

I am sick of losing on here, and just want to turn it around or give it up. I basically just want to turn it around and make a steady profit, year in year out.
Report ericster March 11, 2019 3:12 PM GMT
Good post and some good points raised DiscoPete. I won't pretend to be one of the golden few. I'm on a bad run right now actually but I'm tweaking, always tweaking, and... I'm hopeful. I DO think that the strategy that I'm working with , at the very least, gives my a/c balance some hope of lasting. I won't throw my hard earned it, I'm way past that nonsense. It sinks or it swims. Full stop.

I like what you say about the draw-down.  I never have any expectation or calculated idea of what any particular play will give me. I play and I hope not to lose and when the situation goes green I'm out of there. The proof in the pudding, I would respectfully suggest, is whether or not the wins, over time, outstrip the losses. That really is the bottom line isn't it.
Report Do wah Diddy March 11, 2019 3:17 PM GMT
Once a mug  punter  always a mug punter  .us mug punters will never learn we have a gene in us that won't  let us learn from  our mistakes .we suffer from mugnosis its well known throughout the medical world . Once you've been diagnosed with it there's no hope and no cure .you just have to go through life realising your a mug it's hard to admit it .but I'm lucky I knew at a very early age that i was a mug and lots and lots of other people realised I was a mug and took advantage of my mugnosis

Those who notice we have it seem to benefit from it. Loads and loads  of people have benefited from us mugs .were not hard to find we stick out like a sore thumb to a certain kind of person and there's millions who notice us and benefit
Report Charlie March 11, 2019 7:41 PM GMT

Mar 11, 2019 -- 1:28PM, G Hall wrote:


Some good posts and excellent one from disco Pete.I am sick of losing on here, and just want to turn it around or give it up. I basically just want to turn it around and make a steady profit, year in year out.


G Hall
But what are you doing about it?

Stop dreaming about £14 a day and growing the bank by 2% a month. Get real.

I asked you to post 20 bets with reasoning and why the odds were good. You posted one without explanation. Even if you posted something like I just fancied it then that would give us something to go on. If you're going to win then you have to put in some effort.

How many bets a day to do have?

Report trebor March 12, 2019 12:37 AM GMT
I agree with Charlie if you really want help it would be a good idea to give your thinking behind the bets you place,  maybe look back over your statement and give the last 10?

There is some good advice given on here, I like the withdraw all but £10 for a few reasons other than the obvious you lose less. firstly it may make you think about the best way to grow it, the reason I say that is because of your response to the suggestion So start with a bank of a tenner would seem inconceivable to me, for example what is your stake going to be. How long would it take to build a decent size bank, I'm not sure. this indicates to me that the only way you see to make a profit at present is to place bets, as I have said before you can treat this place as a bookies if you like, but it is an exchange and you are not using the advantage that gives.

That may make no sense to you at present, and probably means no more to you than the people telling you to 'find an edge', but where do you find an edge??   Well, another piece of advice given was to use some of the money you withdraw to get an API, it will enable you to see full market depth (all bets in the market), with that available you now have at least a chance of finding an edge, study the market and ask yourself why are people or lots of people asking for that bet? use print screen on your PC to keep the info and work things out.

So to answer your two questions, 1; what stake should I use?  well you can split your £10 down into mini little chunks if you like and bet with it and go for your 2% a week, or at least go half way to treating this place as an exchange and split it into 4x or 8x £10 chunks to bet with, but I would suggest you find the correct markets (some will be better than others) and empower your £10 using it over and over again in the same market, you might only have £10 but that should not stop you putting 100's of pounds through the market.

Question 2; How long to build a decent size bank?  well hopefully your £10 seems a little more valuable now and 2% rather small, that £10 will also be growing as well of course, keep searching and stay disciplined and it will grow quicker than you imagine.
Report DenzilPenberthy March 12, 2019 3:59 AM GMT
There's simple facts here clearly the OP currently doesn't know enough to win betting in the first place and no magic staking plan will change that,if such a thing existed nobody would bother with work they'd just sit on exchanges all day with premium charges being the only concern.
The solution is to acquire more knowledge a given sport spend more time going over data,replays etc. and have factual reasoning for your bet without guessing,find a price that you think would be a value bet and go from there with some sensible staking and bank control (plenty advice above).
Give it 6 months or so and if you haven't won or at least can show ACTUAL FACTUAL REASONING why you may win in the future it's time to accept you don't know enough and will continue to lose,from here giving up is the best option imo. unless you enjoy losing (some like to think it's entertaining).
Report nathanrh March 12, 2019 3:33 PM GMT
IMHO - the poster and anyone else for that matter looking for a system doesn't even need £10 (better to save it for when you have a tangible method / system to bet real money with). Just paper trade your proposals, record the odds, analyse the results, logic etc. Then when you discover the efficiency you are up against it won't have cost you anything ;-).

And therein is the real rub, it just isn't fun unless you are playing with real money.....
Report trebor March 12, 2019 7:17 PM GMT
You cant honestly believe that every horse starts the race at it's true odds surly? or if 30 horses start a race at 2/1 this week as long as 10 win is that the basis of your efficient market?  some should have been shorter and some longer, and someone who knows their racing will back or lay the ones they have a strong enough opinion on to finish ahead, subject to PC of course, which then I might start to agree with you.

What about the movement in odds leading up to the race, these horses that started at 3/1 will almost certainly have moved up and down in odds massively creating another chance to profit, in a tight efficient market they have to. Same with in running, the book is still about 103%, depending on your horses racing style may be better to wait till in running to place your bet.

What about when the race gets delayed while a horse or two take longer to load, is this a piece of luck for the market makers to correct what must have been mistakes in the book, as the odds still move, sometimes by a lot.

No imo a tight efficient market is an advantage not a disadvantage, makes the market more predictable and easier to read.
Report nathanrh March 12, 2019 9:55 PM GMT
trebor - we agree.

The markets aren't totally efficient (they don't need to be, because the commission monster is also waiting); a few years back someone actually did a lot of data analytics with a spreadsheet covering I think some 220,000 horse races, he concluded there were often inefficient prices however they were in the very low single digit percentage range and they were almost always eroded over time), even the small edges that remained lost to commission.

I'm certain there are undoubtedly those making a living on horse racing where specialist knowledge (20 years at a particular track) / insider activity is prevalent, those are just the kind of edges the casual punter is very unlikely to stumble upon.

I wish the OP well, he has been given some very salient advice, I fear however he likes the thrill of the action more than the hard work and discipline required to profit here.
Report Do wah Diddy March 12, 2019 10:04 PM GMT
I like trebors view on this
Report peckerdunne March 12, 2019 11:12 PM GMT
If this lad wants to make money from betting the first thing he need to do is stop betting.
Report G Hall March 13, 2019 11:47 AM GMT
The biggest problem I have is overstaking and chasing, I guess I'm not alone. I can have a period where I am doing OK, staking good, mindset good, in a pretty good place, then bang get caught on something then the urge to get back the losing stake asap takes over. There are times I get lucky but generally it spirals and next thing back to square one.

There are days I actually know I will do OK, put in the hard work, staking is good and all is good. The compulsion to retrieve losses ASAP is the biggest problem I have to overcome I think.
Report G Hall March 13, 2019 12:09 PM GMT
An example of what I do when the mindset is good, in Azerbaijan at the moment Qarabag V agsu. The over 0.5 goals market was matched as low as 1.01 not for much but quite a bit at 1.02/03.The HT score is 0-0.

I have stepped in just after HT and backed over 1.5 goals at 1.51, when/if the first goal goes in I will cash out provided a profit can be made.
Report G Hall March 13, 2019 12:44 PM GMT
I have now backed over 0.5 at 4 to recoup stakes on 1.5
Report G Hall March 13, 2019 12:53 PM GMT
Ah well back to the gardening
Report peckerdunne March 13, 2019 3:34 PM GMT
this is a mickey take
Report The Management March 13, 2019 4:34 PM GMT
The Management    06 Mar 19 09:23 

It's official - you are either a lost cause or a wind up merchant (suspect the latter).
Either way - I'm out, You're fired!


A sad state of affairs though, that the busiest/only active thread on the General Betting Forum is a wind-up.
Report G Hall March 13, 2019 6:02 PM GMT
What's up guys I put up my bet and it lost simple as
Report The Management March 14, 2019 3:32 PM GMT
GH - i'm bored with all these cavalry charges and there's no more filthy each way races so I will humour you.

What is your view on the Chelsea price (away to Dynamo Kiev at 17:55) today?

They were 2.20 yesterday, now (at time of writing) they are 1.91/1.92 - Higuain hasn't travelled (not in the squad), the pitch is apparently a disgrace, Chelsea leading 3:0 from the first leg. You can google/twitter for more info.

Do you have a view on what price they will be by 17:55? Note: I'm not asking you to predict the outcome of the match or asking you to have a bet, just asking your view on what the price will be at 17:55.
Report G Hall March 14, 2019 3:42 PM GMT
It is way to short imo at the moment but has been shortening all day. I think a more realistic price is about 2.25
Report G Hall March 14, 2019 3:43 PM GMT
The price they will actually be at ko is more likely to be where it is at the moment
Report G Hall March 14, 2019 3:49 PM GMT
I would request a lay at 1.9 with a few to green later, I will also back btts in Napoli V red bull
Report The Management March 14, 2019 3:50 PM GMT
Cool - but is that your view now (in real time) - or did you also think that yesterday and get some 2.20?
Report G Hall March 14, 2019 5:45 PM GMT
I didn't even think about it yesterday I'm afraid 1.9 now
Report The Management March 14, 2019 6:01 PM GMT
Went out to 2.02/2.04 just after we last spoke but looking more like 1.91/1.92  - so you were right there.

Maybe you could consider trying to make some money from your opinion on prices.
Report G Hall March 14, 2019 6:03 PM GMT
Bet 1

Layed Chelsea @ 1.9 with a view to trade.

Backed btts Napoli V Red Bull S @ 1.65

Boll ó ks Chelsea just scored I'm a jinx
Report G Hall March 14, 2019 6:05 PM GMT
Btts price Napoli 1.25 typo there
Report G Hall March 14, 2019 6:06 PM GMT
Ffs 1.65
Report G Hall March 14, 2019 6:07 PM GMT
Gonna have to sit tight here for a while
Report G Hall March 14, 2019 6:14 PM GMT
Goal Napoli cash out btts 1.66 for profit.

Hopefully Kiev can get one
Report G Hall March 14, 2019 8:47 PM GMT
Well that went well laying a team that wins 5-0
Report Dr Crippen March 16, 2019 1:02 PM GMT
So start with a bank of a tenner would seem inconceivable to me, for example what is your stake going to be. How long would it take to build a decent size bank

If you haven't got a winning game then it's a case of learning as you go along. So why give money away when you're only betting for interest?

No one on here is going to broadcast a winning system for the world to copy.
They might lead you to a website where they will charge for advice, but that won't take you very far. Advisers are simply fellow losers who've given up trying to win and are now taking advantage of other losers by pulling the confidence trick.

You're completely on your own.
Report Do wah Diddy March 16, 2019 4:57 PM GMT
IT MUST BE NICE TO LOOSE MONEY AND THINK WELL IVE STILL GOT LOADS LEFT

I JUST THINK IVE LOST ALL MY MONEY AND IVE GOT F**k ALL LEFT
Report peckerdunne March 16, 2019 7:29 PM GMT
look if a fellow is any good, in time he can learn to not lose and keep his head above water, enjoying some good times along the way.This is success.

The margins from there into long term profit are so small and extremely difficult to find and maintain.
Report ericster March 17, 2019 9:02 AM GMT

Mar 16, 2019 -- 3:02PM, Dr Crippen wrote:


So start with a bank of a tenner would seem inconceivable to me, for example what is your stake going to be. How long would it take to build a decent size bankIf you haven't got a winning game then it's a case of learning as you go along. So why give money away when you're only betting for interest?No one on here is going to broadcast a winning system for the world to copy. They might lead you to a website where they will charge for advice, but that won't take you very far. Advisers are simply fellow losers who've given up trying to win and are now taking advantage of other losers by pulling the confidence trick. You're completely on your own.


Wise words from you there Crippen.
GH IS, we are ALL,  on our own here.
I know I've said this before but if you love betting you won't make money at it long term.
Too many sideshows/distractions.
I am, I think, at a point where I seem to be holding my own right now.
It goes wrong some times but I seem to be able to recover and even now, I treat every play as a learning exercise in the hope of being able to anticipate and thus react better to certain situations.
GH, my last play was a week ago. Will I have one today? I don't know but I shall be ready to climb the good ship opportunity as and when it docks.Happy

Report Emitdeb March 19, 2019 4:57 PM GMT
SET YOUR SELF A DAILY DEPOSIT LIMIT

slowly slowly catchy monkey

Cool
Report Emitdeb March 19, 2019 4:58 PM GMT
YOURSELF even... Blush
Report Dr Crippen March 20, 2019 12:43 PM GMT
For some time I've looked upon NH racing as a poor betting medium for the serious punter.

Take the recent Cheltenham meeting where the favourite with the race won and with Walsh aboard falls at the final hurdle.
I recall another where the hot favourite breaks it's leg at an early stage.
I watched a hurdle race yesterday where the most likely winner started to idle when in front, then got caught on the line and was immediately dismounted. 

The professional's comment is supposed to be that luck equals itself out. Which is complete tosh.

There's no law that says luck will even itself out, in fact many have gone broke waiting for their ill fortune to change, when examination of their bets simply show bad luck in running.

There are many things that can go wrong during a flat race.  Betting over the jumps adds considerably to the uncertainty.
Report peckerdunne March 20, 2019 2:47 PM GMT
very many would disagree
Report The Management March 20, 2019 3:51 PM GMT
It does sound like NH racing (and probably betting of any kind) are not for you.

Dr Crippen    20 Mar 19 12:43 
There's no law that says luck will even itself out, in fact many have gone broke waiting for their ill fortune to change, when examination of their bets simply show bad luck in running.


In the grand scheme of things there is no such thing as luck - just deviation - but if a little bit of "bad luck" (deviation) is having an impact on your long-term returns and you have gone broke waiting for your "ill fortune to change" - either your method is flawed or you are staking incorrectly or both.

Using the coin-flip example (assume it's a 50:50 outcome) and you can get 10/11 Heads or 11/10 Tails
Some of the people backing heads at 10/11 might make a profit in the short term (their first five bets might come in) but they have just benefited from deviation ("luck"), they will all eventually lose in the long-term.
Some of the people backing tails at 11/10 will make money long-term - but there will be plenty others (a surprisingly high number imo) that don't understand the maths involved and go bust - most likely from over-staking.

It doesn't matter if you bet the flat, NH hurdles, the dwarf tractor racing, if you don't understand the maths, your expected return, the deviation involved and staking - you will indeed go bust at some point. You can console yourself by saying you were "unlucky" if you want - but if a handful of fallers have wiped you out you weren't unlucky.
Report Dr Crippen March 20, 2019 10:58 PM GMT
The Management.
The maths are simple in the coin example, and I won't waste time on the blindingly obvious.

The point you missed from my post along with peckerdunne, is why include further negative elements into your chances of winning, once the method of selection has been established?  It's a valid question.

Many believe it's easier over the jumps, mainly because they still rely on the market to guide them, and that's where they've been lucky with their betting in the past.
It's not easier over the jumps at all, and the method of selection can be almost the same whether it be jumps or flat.

It's where you look for your selections, which makes it more likely that you will be correct once you know what you are doing.
Knowing what to look for and where to find it are the last steps in reducing the odds which are piled against you.   

But the first step and the most elusive, is gaining hard earned knowledge about the game, without which you will never reduce the element of chance sufficiently out of the bet.
I believe this is the hardest part, because very few who know anything worth knowing are prepared to share it.

Remember when I wrote earlier that no one is going to tell you anything of real worth to help you on your way.
Well it goes without saying that staking plans are ten-a-penny, along with advice about searching for value.
Report The Management March 21, 2019 12:45 AM GMT
For thanks that Crippen Doctor - words many sense not make me but.
Report Dr Crippen March 21, 2019 10:54 AM GMT
Here's something else to think about.

Temperament s a vital quality in any successful gambler, and you have to approach the problem in the right way free of emotion. For emotion will pull you off course when making an evaluation.

Unfortunately emotion is usually present in bucket loads, judging from the comments of most gamblers.
Report The Management March 21, 2019 11:28 AM GMT
Think you, thank go I will. Is contribution your valued.
Report Dr Crippen March 21, 2019 11:46 AM GMT
^See what I meant in my last post, the refusal of some people to learn is extraordinary.
Report The Management March 21, 2019 11:58 AM GMT
Teach much me you can

Bag this blow please can into you?
Report Dr Crippen March 21, 2019 2:14 PM GMT
Throwing a loser with typical, tantrum when inadequacies confronted  his.
Report Dr Crippen March 21, 2019 2:21 PM GMT
Good put down isn't it that.

Here's another:

Child smarting like a silly, place being in his put after.
Report The Management March 21, 2019 2:50 PM GMT
ffs - You think you were unlucky with a few falls at the final hurdle.

I have waited 20 years to own my very own little troll/stalker......and all i get is you? Cry
Report Dr Crippen March 21, 2019 3:47 PM GMT
Those falls you mention prove my point.

I never said I backed any of those horses, yet you assume I did.

There's your first problem right there, you readily jump to the wrong conclusions.

I suspected you were annoyed at me for some reason from your insults on Charlie's thread which had to be taken down.

I suggest with your fiery temper you keep your stakes to a minimum.
Report peckerdunne March 21, 2019 4:44 PM GMT
Dr, a lot of words that go around the houses and have taught me absolutely nothing.

I'm not sure if my emotions have been left is the stalls with the wrong draw or is it you that fell at the first.
Report peckerdunne March 21, 2019 4:44 PM GMT
in the stalls*
Report Dr Crippen March 21, 2019 4:58 PM GMT
Then I've wasted my time peckerdunne.
Report The Management March 21, 2019 5:05 PM GMT
Be careful peckerdunne - i thought I could handle this guy but by golly I made assumptions and then my fiery temper got the better of me.

At first glance it looks like he must be drunk or dizzylectric but he will run rings around you like he has done with me.

You will come to realise that he has broken you and that he is the better man. Gotta go lie down now - I am livid.
Report Dr Crippen March 21, 2019 6:02 PM GMT
Crikey The Management you're on fire today.

I've really managed to get under your skin.

I'll have to make a note of that.
Report The Management March 21, 2019 6:09 PM GMT
When you posted the link to conservative_women.com to support your view - it's the closest I have ever come to wetting myself from laughing. Blush

Put that in your notes Laugh
Report Dr Crippen March 21, 2019 7:29 PM GMT
Put what in my notes - that you're becoming incontinent?

You're not very good at this either are you?
Report The Management March 21, 2019 7:45 PM GMT
It's not a fair contest is it, me with my assumptions and my fiery temper to overcome - while all the time you are getting support from Ann Widdecombe, Christine Hamilton and Theresa Villiers - I never stood a chance did I. Sad
Report Dr Crippen March 21, 2019 8:38 PM GMT
To be truthful The management you did take me by surprise.

I never expected anyone to come on and ruin G Hall's thread after it was going so well.

Perhaps you might give him and other posters who were interested your apology.
Report The Management March 21, 2019 8:52 PM GMT
Dr Crippen    07 Mar 19 14:09
Withdraw all of your funds apart from a tenner - if you can't grow a tenner you won't be able to grow 1k or 10k.

Probably the best piece of advice you'll ever get.


Laugh  You have changed your tune - you copy and paste from my advice - you tell him that my advice is probably the best advice he will ever get - but I have ruined his thread?
Report Dr Crippen March 22, 2019 9:44 AM GMT
Just do the decent thing and apologise to the others for ruining the thread.

You know you're in the wrong.
Report The Management March 22, 2019 10:19 AM GMT
The Management    05 Mar 19 17:01 

"........Withdraw all of your funds apart from a tenner - if you can't grow a tenner you won't be able to grow 1k or 10k......."

Dr Crippen    07 Mar 19 14:09 

Withdraw all of your funds apart from a tenner - if you can't grow a tenner you won't be able to grow 1k or 10k.

Probably the best piece of advice you'll ever get.
Report Dr Crippen March 22, 2019 11:46 AM GMT
And still he refuses to eat humble pie.
Report G Hall March 25, 2019 9:46 AM GMT
So should I look for a daily/weekly/monthly profit. 14 a day is basically 100 a week (98),or just wait for what is there and bet accordingly or just bet say 2% of the bank.
Report The Management March 25, 2019 11:28 AM GMT
I think the only thing we have established for absolute certain and without a shadow of doubt is that NH racing as a poor betting medium for the serious punter.

At Cheltenham a favourite fell at the final hurdle, another time some other hot favourite broke a leg and sometimes the horse that's in front gets caught before the line.   

The professional's will try to tell you they still make money which is obviously complete tosh. Once a bit of variance kicks in there is no coming back from it and absolutely nothing you can do about it, you will go broke simply due to bad luck.

Other sports you should avoid because of luck are: football (team bus might crash), snooker (cue might snap), basketball (I don't trust tall men), Flat racing (I don't trust short men), Rugby Union & League (Ball bounces funny), Tennis (I suffer from time travel sickness), Formula One (probably ok to be fair - but life is just too short isn't it?).

Finally, be lucky----- ditch your spreadsheets, analysis and odds compilation -------and invest in a four leafed, black rabbits foot shaped like a horseshoe. Rub it (clockwise only) on 3rd Wednesday of months containing letter R and on full moons at high tide.

Before the end of the day, somebody much. much cleverer that me will be along with much better advice but this is all I have for now.
Report The Management March 25, 2019 11:39 AM GMT
Scratch my last post - I just found this from earlier in the thread....

Dr Crippen    20 Mar 19 12:43 
For some time I've looked upon NH racing as a poor betting medium for the serious punter.

Take the recent Cheltenham meeting where the favourite with the race won and with Walsh aboard falls at the final hurdle.
I recall another where the hot favourite breaks it's leg at an early stage.
I watched a hurdle race yesterday where the most likely winner started to idle when in front, then got caught on the line and was immediately dismounted. 

The professional's comment is supposed to be that luck equals itself out. Which is complete tosh.

There's no law that says luck will even itself out, in fact many have gone broke waiting for their ill fortune to change, when examination of their bets simply show bad luck in running.

There are many things that can go wrong during a flat race.  Betting over the jumps adds considerably to the uncertainty.




No need to hang about for the clever fella now. Sorted.
Report G Hall March 25, 2019 2:19 PM GMT
Thanks for that fascinating reply.
Report The Management March 25, 2019 2:43 PM GMT
To be fair G Hall, you have had some useful replies (as much as can be expected from the opposition on a person to person betting site) from a number of posters - and then the good Doctor also got involved.

From memory I told you to: use BF like a Betting Exchange not a betting shop. Price is critical. Stop gambling.
Withdraw all of your funds except £10 because if you can't grow £10 you won't be able to grow £1k or £10k.
Small should actually be easier, scaling up is much harder but worry about that further down the line.
Forget £14 - try to make 20 pence first - like your life depended upon it - but understand how you made it.
Refine and repeat.

I think your response to that was that you had done your bank in - laying the England Ladies at top price in a friendly soccer match.

As such I think I should leave you in the very capable and fascinating hands of the good Doctor. The good news is you won't be needing that wheelbarrow.
Report The Management March 25, 2019 2:44 PM GMT
PS - sorry for ruining your Fred.
Report G Hall March 25, 2019 6:04 PM GMT
No worries you didn't ruin it, and I was being a bit tongue in cheek.
Report peckerdunne March 25, 2019 7:31 PM GMT
G Hall, i  know you wont stick to a tenner.I know you will fail, i have many times.

As above it not a betting shop, its an exchange(that's debatable these days also).

Use 50 quid, start with intent focus to build it through trading.

If you get to 100 withdraw 50 and if you get there again withdraw 40, and so on.

7 8 12 quid a turn matters not, what matters is you survive and eventually grow a tad.

If you can do this for a month with discipline you will be ten times the punter you are now.

No need to bet the Iran ladies basketball team of which you haven't got a clue.

As he sais above it aint about the outcome/result of the event, ita about whether you got green and took it.
Report The Management March 25, 2019 7:32 PM GMT
Thanks and good luck! - though if you have understood anything I have tried to say, you can take luck out of the equation, so best wishes is probably more appropriate.
Report The Management March 25, 2019 7:34 PM GMT
^ was to G Hall

And also Peckers post seems like a very good starting point.
Report G Hall March 26, 2019 1:03 AM GMT
OK so is pre event trading or in running trading the best way to go. This evening I laid both Luxembourg and Montenegro after both had taken the lead.
Report G Hall March 26, 2019 10:21 AM GMT
I forgot to add, I greened on Ukraine game after they equalised, but let the England game run as I was watching it and was in a good position.
Report Charlie March 26, 2019 7:44 PM GMT

Mar 26, 2019 -- 3:03AM, G Hall wrote:


OK so is pre event trading or in running trading the best way to go. This evening I laid both Luxembourg and Montenegro after both had taken the lead.


The best way to go is what you're good at. If you can consistently predict which way the market will go in either of those cases then you're on a winner. If not then you may be lucky for a while but long-term you will loose.

Report mega88 March 27, 2019 1:36 PM GMT
Starting with £10 on Betfair is no good, the minimum to back is £2, you'd be better off on purple min-0,50p, smark, 0,10p 365 low as well. Building a bank with small amounts will give you a grounding but this way will only take you so far, the rabbit hole deepens as you approach big figures.
Report mega88 March 27, 2019 1:41 PM GMT
Laying in play is not trading that's gambling, you could argue the essence of trading is gambling, you need to read about trading and start playing around with software. Learn how the markets work, try geeks toy if it's still around. Again I would advise against all of this. You will waste your time. I used to try to trade horse pre event with geeks, it gives you a good understanding of how the markets operate. Trading in play was a nightmare although I did get a few nice wins it wasn't for the feint hearted.
Report peckerdunne March 28, 2019 6:57 PM GMT
I trade cricket to avoid gambling, which is obviously a gamble...Grin
Report G Hall April 1, 2019 1:10 PM BST
April 1st First day of the rest of my life. A fresh start. There will be fewer bets, and hopefully profits.

Bet 1

Arsenal v Newcastle

Lay under 1.5 Goals after 15 minutes if still goalless.
Report G Hall April 2, 2019 10:22 AM BST
A good solid start, let the good times begin
Report peckerdunne April 2, 2019 7:50 PM BST
P/L
Report Dr Crippen May 2, 2019 1:16 PM BST
PS - sorry for ruining your Fred.

Not at all, your tantrums have provided us with some great entertainment.

Shame about the thread though.
Report RyanWolf May 4, 2019 10:39 AM BST
As was mentioned before, it's all about +EV bets. Doesn't matter if you back, lay, doesn't matter if betting chicken fights or weather forecast as long as these are +EV bets. Liquidity dried up these days dramaticaly but still some decent opportunities to make money here. There are circumstances where odds doesn't reflect true probability but for obvious reasons I won't go into details. Bots mistakes for example. But the truth is you need to put a lot of work and I don't mean weeks, rather months/years. Most people don't like that. They expect everything delivered on a golden plate to them, without any effort. If you don't like spending hours here every day better stick to proper job. And as mentioned above: if you cant make money long run you won't make any with hiher stakes. Period. Trying new "systems" with high or even medium stakes is always asking for a trouble.
Report RyanWolf May 4, 2019 12:08 PM BST
What I mean was if you can't make money betting 2 euro stakes you won't make it betting with higher stakes.
Report G Hall July 31, 2020 9:08 AM BST
Ttt
Report TameTheTiger August 3, 2020 4:38 PM BST
happy to send my lays, race to race. Price is everything. 1 point profit per day from 10 bets a day
Report TameTheTiger August 3, 2020 8:25 PM BST
+2.5 off 13 lays today
Report The Management August 3, 2020 8:47 PM BST
G Hall - you need to get some ambition!

Double your steaks - and go for £28 per day imo ShockedWink
Report G Hall August 3, 2020 10:08 PM BST
I have put a lot of work into looking for something that works for me. The biggest issue I have is training my mind to operate in a professional manner. I have had some excellent help from a forumite,

The psychology of punting is not easy, in fact it is bloody difficult, but I'm a trier, and I won't give up.
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