Anybody overhauled their betting strategy

If you accept the odds are accurate , which they are proven with data , how can you profit long term? Loads are struggling on here due to the markets being so accurate - everyone says team x looks long @ whatever odds but the reality is the odds are what they should be meaning you are backing/laying the actual percentage chance of it happening. To make money doing that you would have to defy the natural laws of mathematics- it'd be like betting a grand on heads of a coin coming up long term at evens expecting to profit. It can't be done on SPs anyway IMO

There's definitely more pricing 'errors' in-running, but just be aware that there will be people with far better information than you (ie those watching it from the event or with access to raw feeds).

The odds aren't accurate.  Besides, even if they were, you couldn't prove it.

I think it's been determined with price data that there is no price bias, but just because 50% of even money shots win on average in the long term, that certainly doesn't mean the odds are accurate.  If you had a two horse race and every horse was evens, 50% of them would win regardless and the odds would be massively inaccurate.

As regards finding winners on the horses, looking for value can be the biggest distraction when all you need is the winner.

But the market is usually a good guide to isolating the ones worth looking at.

there is always a 1.11 at sometime in every football match ,did you ever check how many of those 1.11 wins
Chargeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee...

G. Hall of Lincoln?

g1 future entries,short price

think a lot of people have a misconception about gambling. you should lose, because the house has an inbuilt edge. in this case betfair might have a lesser edge than the bookies, but it still exists. and the whole idea that you are betting punter against punter, which is supposed to be the true ethos of betfair, is of course a bad joke. you are punting against dedicated professionals.

the only way to win imo is to have a big win, and then get out. that's my view anyway.

Lewisham, I think a lot of the time you are betting against BF bots, the speed they put up bets a tick under/over mine sometimes would be impossible for joe public using a bot.

You do need to compensate for commission charges as well, which can take a fair chunk over time if you are trading a lot.

Commission charges take more than a fair chunk - they can take everything. In fact, more than everything. I posted this on zooots's thread a while back:

For years I've been posting how the ridiculously high commission rate is killing the exchange.

Imagine you're a decent judge and a decent punter who has a few £100 bets every day. Not trading, just straight backs or lays, taking a view. Exactly the sort of punter the exchange needs. Your commission discount is an apparently reasonable 20%, making your effective commission rate 4%.

Being a decent judge, at the end of the year you've come out on top, to the extent that your gross profit before commission is £3500. You're plainly a shrewdie, in fact one of the very shrewdest punters in the land if you can consistently beat the overround to that extent over a long period. So what does you Betfair account say your net profit is after commission?

I'll tell you: MINUS £3500.

How the hell can you, a winning punter carry on? Never mind the losing ones, who'll have paid very nearly the same amount of commission as you have, but for the privilege of losing on top of it.

All the whining about the Premium Charge on here is a red herring. Betfair love the Premium Charge whiners, because a tiny, winning minority have succeeded in drowning out and concealing the real Betfair rip-off: of the huge, losing majority.

All the whining about the Premium Charge on here is a red herring.

It make one wonder who writes the stuff?

Same with the bookie bashing threads about them restricting accounts, they all sent out the clear message that plenty can win at the game.

Which is exactly the perception they'd want to convey to keep people at it.

My...strategy...if you'd call it that evolves. Moves with the times. Adapting, always adapting.

Loads are struggling on here due to the markets being so accurate -

markets are wrong all the time, particularly in horse racing. football might be different as so much information.

The markets are an excellent guide for most people.
But you have to look a each race on its merits in order to pinpoint the good bets, along with choosing the right kind of race of course.

The practice of backing favorites only figures quite highly in the plans of many who know exactly what they're doing at this game.

I'd say the that vast majority of punters know far less about what is going on than they think they do.
For how are they going to know if no one has told them?

hasn't told them.

i know at least three people who has won over 250 grand and are subject to the premium charge,

their secret, doing the  homework and taking over the odds a selection

As easy as that starship?

I hope they won't be upset now you've just given their secret away.

never said it was easy.
just saying it can be done

May 25, 2019 -- 2:30PM, starship wrote:

i know at least three people who has won over 250 grand and are subject to the premium charge,their secret, doing the  homework and taking over the odds a selection

And betting like a bot I'd wager. Probably LIKE a bot.
But I refuse to accept that it can't be done.

yeah it's probably not that difficult. essentially it boils down to doing value bets. if you consistently beat the market, then you're going to win over a long period of time.

the difficult factor I think for most punters is the discipline factor, how do they respond to bad runs, do they chase, or do they even stick to their tried and trusted formula in the first place? most of the punters I know, and I count myself as well, tend to end up spraying bets around when they're on a good run, and you're not going to be betting for value in that case.

And betting like a bot I'd wager. Probably LIKE a bot.
But I refuse to accept that it can't be done.

yeah I've always said on here that I reckon the majority who complain about the premium charge are just bot users

but that's just my view

maybe there's a skill to using bots as well, like there is to operating puppets...

You're going to need a lot more than simply getting over the going odds for your selections to win at this game.
But if you're happy doing that carry on.

my mate does not do prices, he just knows when there is a good bet, a value bet and so on.
the bigger the price the more he has on.
as for losing runs, he like myself have been doing this for 20 years plus,
so he takes a losing run as an occuptional hazard.
he believes he is betting the right selection and in the yeas i have know him , he never after times

and one last thing if he or a few punters i know could get on with BET365 at the early prices, unrestricted,
they would be millionaires in a year

May 26, 2019 -- 4:08AM, ericster wrote:

May 25, 2019 --  8:30PM, starship wrote:i know at least three people who has won over 250 grand and are subject to the premium charge,their secret, doing the  homework and taking over the odds a selectionAnd betting like a bot I'd wager. Probably LIKE a bot.But I refuse to accept that it can't be done.

That SHOULD read " probably WITH a bot ".
The thing is, most people began their betting experiences just doing it for fun. A Saturday flutter or maybe Derby and/or Grand National day.
But serious is never fun. And when you've been doing it for fun, for who's how long?
Habits of a lifetime are hard to break.
If you're wanting to make money here, find some other way of making fun.
I repeat.... SERIOUS IS NOT FUN.
I look in here, when I have the time, I check the inplay coupon, and if there's nothing doing, I'm out of here.
Full Stop...

May 26, 2019 -- 7:54AM, starship wrote:

my mate does not do prices, he just knows when there is a good bet, a value bet and so on.the bigger the price the more he has on.as for losing runs, he like myself have been doing this for 20 years plus,so he takes a losing run as an occuptional hazard.he believes he is betting the right selection and in the yeas i have know him , he never after times

How can you "not do prices" yet know when there's a "value bet"?  Even if it's a subconscious thing, he clearly does "do prices".  You will not win money long-term if all of your bets have a negative expected value.

The first thing to consider is your strike rate.

Until that is satisfactory you need to keep your nose down and learn.

Many races can be whittled down to two or three possibles, it's when you're good enough to find the winner of these races more times than you don't, that you'll keep on the right side.

The value is always with the winner.
It's seeing it that counts, not relying on the occasional winner at a decent price to pay for you being wrong most of the time.

The value is always with the winner.  Sorry, but that is utter tosh.

If you can't find the winner, then what is your judgement of value based on?

Certainly not assessing a horses chance or you would have found the winner.

So your idea of value is little more than a guess.

If you back enough true 2.0 shots at 1.5, you will back one winner in approximately every two bets and do your dough.  If you back enough true 2.0 shots at 3.0, you will back the same number of winners and show a profit. 

Your P/L over a substantial period will confirm whether you are accurate when making assessments of any particular outcome and thus give you an idea of whether any bets you are considering making represent a value play or not.

If you back enough true..

We've already established that the ability to establish the true chance of each runner is not present in the punter, proven by their poor strike rate.

For if they had the ability to find plenty of winners, especially in the handicaps, the value would take care of itself.

So when they talk about finding value they're talking twaddle.

Until you know what the winner should look like, which will be when you're good enough to beat SP.

Then how do you ever know what value should look like?

Amazing how often this debate manages to return on here. What is value, can the markets really be beaten long term. Are markets efficient.

The last part of that is really the main issue (IMO), as it answers the other two questions.

And my answer is simple that markets have a lot of inneficiency in them at times - especially horse racing. The answer for beating them is simply working hard to find those spots.

Hard work is often not the answer people are looking for though.

How can you "not do prices" yet know when there's a "value bet"?  Even if it's a subconscious thing, he clearly does "do prices".  You will not win money long-term if all of your bets have a negative expected value.

you just get an instinct when a price of a dog is wrong

If a horse is LIKELY to have a good chance of running well and being close to threatening to win in latter stage of a race, then say if backed at 10-1 on here it could well be at very low odds IR!

So a lay in running to go all green is one way of getting value WITHOUT IT HAVING TO WIN.

dr Crippen does have a point about strike rate, the name of the game is winning.

for example in the big races, you might want to get creative, and back say a Hughie morrison horse that has just won the dante. so you forget about the fact that Hughie morrison has never won the derby and yet aiden wins it every other year. so if you lose that bet, is it because you got unlucky? did you really have a value bet and you just got unlucky? these are things to consider.

With regard to the last post from lewisham ranger, finding the winners races like the Derby and most of the top races for unexposed horses requires specialist knowledge.

High class horses have specific targets, which can account for sparkling form in one big race then a dismal run in the main event which they weren't trained for.

Even the real experts the trainers haven't got much idea of the winner judging from the jockey bookings for yesterday's Derby
And if the trainers don't know what chance has the punter got?

I was with a friend in a racecourse bar years ago and bumped into the Dodger, '' What do you fancy for the Derby Dodge?'' said my friend.
''Don't back on the flat'' said the Dodger ''too many good horses''

What he should have said was ''too many unexposed good horses'' 

Which is why I mostly leave the conditions races for younger horses alone on the flat and on the jumps.

yeah that's interesting dr Crippen although I do actually prefer to back in two year old races, because I like to study the pedigrees most of all, and have no great love for formbook study. I can't claim my strategy is a massively successful one. but it suits me.

in regards to the derby to sum up the whole prediction business at some point yesterday fran said something like "who do we think will win the derby then?" and not only did she look confused but so did everyone else, it was clear they didn't have a clue. I was thinking it doesn't really matter what I think, or the so-called experts think will win the derby, the only thing that matters is the race itself. that will decide it.

in fact of the presenters I think only chamberlain picked the winner.

I feel the problem the vast majority of punters have is not one of strategy with their betting, stakes, odds secured, size of bank etc.

Their problem is a very simple one.
They simply don't know how to assess form correctly.
Yet they all seem to take it for granted that they're able to do this.
It's this area they should concentrate on.

   




It's only knowing which is which that make you a winner.

^I didn't intend posting the last line.

right... but how do they assess form correctly then?

personally I don't think picking winners is all about the formbook. I think there are other ways to skin a cat.

I agree, but I don't think many punters are aware of them either.

Reading Hugh Taylor's write-ups every day leads to the obvious conclusion that the bare contents of the 'form book' is only a part of the overall equation. Everyone can read that, so inevitably it'll take more to win long term, and he actually tells you what these factors are. Also, day after day he uses phrases like 'surprised at the odds', 'nothing I fancy at the prices. 'the juicy prices have disappeared', etc. So clearly the odds are uppermost in his mind in relation to what he sees and reads, and clearly he's skilled at assessing what 'value' odds might be for a given runner.

That's a skill that the vast majority don't have, imo.

Yes I agree bettinghelp.
Anything you can pick up from knowledgeable journalists has got to be good.
The same as listening closely to trainers, but not with the purpose of backing individual horses on what they say, simply because when they're talking about their own any comment is sure to carry a bias.
I mean when they speak of methods employed when training in public with regard to distance class etc.
We should always listen to what they've got to say, because they do let important things slip which a punter can make use of in future.

lewisham ranger    02 Jun 19 08:34 

"dr Crippen does have a point about strike rate, the name of the game is winning."
==============================================================================

"Winning" - There are various ways to "win"....For example a horse coming in 2nd can provide an excellent EXACTA return ...if you know which horses might beat it. As long as ou have a "value" bet on the "2nd" horse winning, then together with a reverse EXACTA can give very high return whether horse wins or is 2nd !

"VALUE" in odds on the horse that comes in "2nd" is not "lost" by it not winning....as LAY IR or the EXACTA type bet can kick in!

"strike-rate" Is not the important factor, as it is "VALUE IN THE ODDS" plus the horse having a good chance to win that is more important.

I'm always overhauling my betting strategy .I look at it from all perspectives I even stand on my head  to look at it when my backs not hurting .I should have scrapped it years ago .it's not my betting strategy I should be looking at its me that I should be trying to see what's up with me.i should overhaul what my mind is telling me to do
The problem is not your betting strategy .the problem is your head which tells you to do the things you do

It's no good saying you will go on a desert island and everything will be ok as you have to take your head with you AND ITS IN THAT WHICH IS THE PROBLEM . 

IT TOOK ME MANY LOOSING YEARS TO FIND THE ANSWER .AND STILL I DO NOT APPLY THE WINNING GAMBLING STRATAGY OF NOT HAVING A BET

good post bettinghelp. Nearly all the factors that give a horse a good winning chance also make that horse a shorter price. The best favourites to take on often have at first or second glance the best last run. That run might not amount to as much as many people think. This is where experience comes in. For a start the horse may be carrying a penalty. You need to judge how much this matters. And if you can forgive one really bad run by a horse you believe is on the up the odds will be rewarding.

Howard, there are so many factors to consider.
Grade, weight, distance, going, what it ran against,and what they had run against. jeez!and many other details, to consider.

and one other thing the little man on their back.
can have the best form but if is a no go day, the horse gets beat.

personally I have made my money betting greyhounds.
find it a lot easier than betting horses

The bookies put the recent form up on the wall in their shops. They give it to you for free. They want you to study it. They want you to think that you are clever enough to pick the winner by reading the little bit of form they put on the wall. That should tell you everything you need to know about studying recent form.

^good point. look, it's as easy as this, if you do what everybody else does then you'll lose. you have to find a method which nobody else will either be stupid enough to think of or be determined enough to follow through with

if you follow the crowd you're a sheep and sheep get slaughtered

the crowd backs the favourite, the crowd backs richard johnson because he's on a horse without looking at any piece of "form". the crowd takes a tip at 4/1 and backs it at 2/1 even though we all know if you miss the 4/1 price and get 2/1 you're done for- you might win today but you'll most definitely lose long-term

also, what is form really? form is not black and white. form is like water. it's adaptable. it's never the full picture. you can only make a good guess based on all of the information you have- this applies to any sports betting but i am thinking mostly of horses. you can hone your instincts for what is a good bet based on data. that's all form is, data.

i have personally never in my life looked at the handicap mark of  ahorse and i have backed 100s if not 1000s of winners and made a profit. everybody looks at handicap marks, it's freely available information so i don't use it. i think it's an archaic way of looking at a race.

also, most people don't even understand simple mathematics. if you do what others won't do then you can make an edge and profit from it. just do what other people aren't willing to do and you can make money

think differently, and never give up. you've only truly lost when you give up

look at yourself as an inventor. you are coming up with a million ways which don't work but eventually you'll hit something that does work. there's billions of pounds in the betting markets and you only need a very small slice of that to make a living from it. it can be done. I believe anything can be done if you put your mind to it

Jun 24, 2019 -- 3:32PM, Nebs wrote:

The bookies put the recent form up on the wall in their shops. They give it to you for free. They want you to study it. They want you to think that you are clever enough to pick the winner by reading the little bit of form they put on the wall. That should tell you everything you need to know about studying recent form.

bookies just want people to bet because what most people don't realise is the bookmakers hold a very small edge in the way they price up their markets, and that's enough to make a profit long term no matter what. the more people bet the more they can potentially make. bookmakers aren't clever people, in fact i'd say they're stupid people for the most part

Jun 3, 2019 -- 10:48AM, bettinghelp wrote:

Reading Hugh Taylor's write-ups every day leads to the obvious conclusion that the bare contents of the 'form book' is only a part of the overall equation. Everyone can read that, so inevitably it'll take more to win long term, and he actually tells you what these factors are. Also, day after day he uses phrases like 'surprised at the odds', 'nothing I fancy at the prices. 'the juicy prices have disappeared', etc. So clearly the odds are uppermost in his mind in relation to what he sees and reads, and clearly he's skilled at assessing what 'value' odds might be for a given runner.That's a skill that the vast majority don't have, imo.

i do think you have to look at the lower end of the market to make a good profit from horses. everybody is on the horses at the top of the market so flip it on its head.

but i would also say this, just because a price is value doesn't mean it will win. and you can hit a long losing run before getting a winner. most people lose because they don't have the patience or the mental fortitude to take lots of losers in a row

hugh taylor hit 50 ish losers in a row this year but did he change his methods? no. he's profitable every year. he's an excellent example of doing it well but you have to try and do it yourself. if you tail a tipster like this you're going to miss the early best prices so it's very tricky to make a good profit even though he's made X profit every year. you'll always be better off finding your own tips rather than following a tipster. any "edge" that a tipster has slowly erodes once a few people take his bets. the price comes in on Hugh Taylor's tips nearly every single time and the vast majority of people taking his tips aren't getting his price and they may actually be losing money even though he's well in profit.


----
i think you have to learn what influences the market

generally speaking a horse that won last time out is not going to be a value price the next time

certain jockeys/trainers or even sires nowadays are fancied based on reputation rather than the horse's actual ability


i suppose you have to come up with a way of seeing the market yourself.

there's also a lot of luck and chance in horse racing. something else you are going to have to accept. there is no such thing as a sure bet. i believe every horse is beatable (frankel is the exception).


also in horse racing the same things happen again and again. it's almost hilarious but the more inside the sport you get the more you'll start noticing things and it can help you avoid bad bets or take other good chances

sent you a message G HALL

Feb 1, 2019 -- 8:25AM, CLYDEBANK29 wrote:

I think it's been determined with price data that there is no price bias, but just because 50% of even money shots win on average in the long term, that certainly doesn't mean the odds are accurate.

Damn - there was a double-space before the "If" in the quote. The Void stole my post.

CB - "I think it's been determined with price data that there is no price bias, but just because 50% of even money shots win on average in the long term, that certainly doesn't mean the odds are accurate.  If you had a two horse race and every horse was evens, 50% of them would win regardless and the odds would be massively inaccurate."

At odds of exactly evens I don't see how you can tell anything from the data on its own. As CB points out 50% are winners (and 50% are losers) irrespective of which horse wins and how often - for every mispriced winner there's a mispriced loser to compensate. With coin tosses you wouldn't ask "How many winning bets were there compared to losing bets?" as they'd always be the same. Instead you would ask "How many times did 'Heads' come up?"

It's only when the odds are NOT evens that the price data becomes meaningful, so that you could spot if, say, 2-1 shots were coming in more or less often than they should.

Very unusual in a CB post for there to be a "flaw in the ointment". What is the world coming to?

the value obviousely lies in the early prices,#
if we could get them life would be a lot easier.
many years ago when i was in with a on track bookie,
i knew what the first show would be,
so i have people in the shops taking the first show,
them days are gone.
this year alone i have gone thru 20 bet365 accounts,
these now are getting hard to get,
and you always run the risk of getting knocked.
i have put on on another thread...three months on betfair,
so far i am winning since oct 1st....early days i know.
i try and price up races where i am interested in a selection.
and the best ones are where i put three dogs in at 20/1 plus,
i can be wrong but it makes it more clearly to me if my selection is value, and it usually is,
because i am betting to 90% around three selections.
people say you cannot make it pay, because THEY cannot and do not know anyone who can make it pay.
me and mates do not use bots, we are to old to know about bots,
as i say, not easy, some days i just do not want to look at a video of greyhounds,
but it has to be done, to hopefully. win money

Is it possible to succeed betting in this fashion.
Bank 10K

Weekly target £500

Study the football matches pick one game a day in which to win between £75/100 (working 5/6 days per week).

The maximum liability of a bet to be £350.

I would be looking at laying goals in running in the main.

Is it possible.

Targets blow, IMHO.  Sometimes the opportunities just aren't there.  Other times, they're plentiful.  Take what you are given and bet accordingly.  When you try to force it is when you will do your conkers.  Price is everything.