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kw
04 Oct 18 10:30
Joined:
Date Joined: 09 Oct 03
| Topic/replies: 458 | Blogger: kw's blog
Last jump season I posted selections obtained via what I call race profiling and after a summer rest ( I only really bet on jumps handicaps ) and a complete revision of the way I work based solely on jump racing from October to April I will go again. I have started well since the 1st October, showing 8 points profit so far.
As per last year I will be backing all selections( sometimes multiple selections ) at BSP

What is profiling. At its simplest if you back 100 even money chances and 40 win you will have a return on investment of 80% and a loss of 20. However if profiling says that horses carrying 11:00 to 11:3 have e only won 1 in 30 races then you can leave them alone and thus you would back 39 winners from 70 selections. A return of 78 and a profit of 8. Obviously I am doing more than that. But in general if something is unprofitable I will let it run and win rather than back it.

I would much appreciate any comments.
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Report kw October 4, 2018 10:37 AM BST
4th October selections

Huntingdon
2.00 Red Hanrahan, Canyouringmeback, Hurricane Rita
3.05 All runners except " Sad Eyed Dylan "
3.35 Macksville, Boughtbeforelunch
4.10 Mamoo, His Dream
Warwick
3.50 Canton Prince, Just Milly, Cheiftains Choice, Plat One Ace
4.20 Temple Mills
4.55 Shufoog, Milan Of Crystal, Hoponandsee

19 selections
Report kw October 4, 2018 5:11 PM BST
Well a good start to the post with 6 of the 7 races getting the winner to provide over 10 points profit at SP and over 15 points at BSP. Hope some of you managed to find the picks useful. Till next time.
Report Escapee October 4, 2018 5:36 PM BST
Great opening shot kw, Good luck with it as the season pans out
Report kw October 5, 2018 9:23 AM BST
5th October selections

Fontwell
2.05 Workbench, Windplaceandsho, Magical Thomas
3.50 Cabaret Queen

Hexham
2.50 Tara Mac, Theatre Act
4.00 Alfie's Choice, Placedela Concord
4.35 Jaunty Thor, Notonebuttwo, Eager To Know
5.10 Wyfield Rose

12 selections
Just some info
All these selections are based on Adran Massey's stats and I have not included anything that long term has not provided a minimum ROI of 175% and usually over 200%. Also nearly all have also shown a profit in every year since 2012. Those that havnt have a high overall ROI. Hopefully this will continue. Good luck today
Report kw October 5, 2018 5:22 PM BST
After a great first race things tailed off with winners prices somewhat lower than expected. All in all not bad with around a one point loss. Hopefully better tomorrow.
Report kw October 6, 2018 10:14 AM BST
6th October selections

Fontwell

Unfortunately there is not enough data to analyse for the 1.40 race and there are no significant clues to reduce the field in the 3.20 as all qualify at present. So I am left with.

2.15 Zen Master, Diplomate Sivola
2.50' Majestic Touch, High Secret
4.30 Between the Waters

5 selections. Good luck however you approach things.
Report kw October 6, 2018 4:44 PM BST
A couple of points profit at BSP and a close second at a big price that I thought was going do deliver. Any profit is good so am thankful for that. So far so good.
Report kw October 7, 2018 10:23 AM BST
7th October selections

Kelso
4.25 Vosnee Romanee
4.55 Romulus Du Donjon, Cool Valley
5.25 Jack Lamb, Green Zone, Boogie Life, Slaney Craiglegacy, Espoir Moriviere

Uttoxeter
2.00 Aaron Lad

Good luck everyone
Report DFCIRONMAN October 7, 2018 11:01 AM BST
Have you allowed for CHANGE IN GOING at KELSO ? Very likely.

4.55 race you have narrowed down to 2 selections at top end of current market....but a drastic change in going will give higher odds horses a fair chance in such an NOVICE H/C CHASE race type.

You are on a good path to a successful run. Eventually you will need to filter down the RACE TYPES where odds of winners are worth targeting.

GL with thread.
Report DFCIRONMAN October 7, 2018 1:57 PM BST
Aaron Lad3:35 UTT
NR
Report kw October 7, 2018 5:39 PM BST
A 1.5 point loss at BSP today so no great damage done. Back tomorrow hopefully.
Report kw October 8, 2018 8:29 AM BST
Stratford today is a bit strange with the front two in betting featuring more than usual.

8th October selections

2.15 Malangen
3.20 Who's my Jockey, Vive Le Roi
3.50 Roberts Star, Sam Red, Roll The Dough, What a Laugh

Hopefully a profit in there somewhere. Good luck all.
Nice to hear from you Ironman. Keep the comments coming
Report kw October 8, 2018 5:55 PM BST
A couple of points loss today unfortunately but still well up on the month. Not sure when next jumps meeting is but will be back then.
Report kw October 10, 2018 10:01 AM BST
10th October selections

Two jump meeting today so a good few selections one or two of which come for the first time with a price criteria. Checking on Oddschecker they may or not be selections. I have not backed them at present but will do so if prices close to the off indicate a bet.

Southwell
2.20 McGroarty, Otter Moon ( only if NOT 8/1 to 10/1 )
2.50 Shaiyzar, Presenting Berkeley
3.50 Old Salt, Solstalla, Forcast ( maximum price 16/1 for a bet so Forcast may not qualify )
4.20 Asking Questions, Scotshall, Little Allstar, Welcome Polly ( maximum price 25/1 so a couple may not qualify )

Ludlow

2.40 Chilli Filly, Oscar Star
3.10 Cut The Corner, Tempestatelfloresco, Forever Field, Belmount
4.10 Gustave Mahler
4.40 Excellent Team, Blushing Red ( only if NOT 8/1 to 10/1 )

So a possible 20 selections but I suspect a couple of non plays. A big test today so we shall see. Good luck everyone
Report kw October 10, 2018 5:15 PM BST
So I make that 19 bets with a small loss. No real damage done and we live to fight another day, though at present tomorrow looks a fairly sparse day with only one race looking at all interesting. Any back on tomorrow
Report kw October 11, 2018 9:24 AM BST
11th October
As I said yesterday both of today's meetings provide sparse pickings save for

2.15 Mead Vale, New List

Good luck
Report kw October 11, 2018 3:49 PM BST
A 2 point loss today in a race which the betting proved quite a bit different to my expectations and the early market. Perhaps reason for that was that the race was a novice event. Something to consider a bit more closely perhaps.
Report kw October 12, 2018 9:25 AM BST
12th October selections
Just the one meeting today and hoping for a change in fortune

4.00 Daytime Ahead, Amour D'or
4.35 Hilary View, Heydour, Clondaw Bisto

Good luck all
Report kw October 13, 2018 9:32 AM BST
Well a 4 point loss is not great so here's hoping for a better day today

13th October selections

Chepstow

4.10 maximum 14/1 - Padleyourowncanoee, Nayati, Phoenix Dream
4.45 Azzerti, Dans Le Vent
5.20 - maximum 33/1 - Rock the Kasbah, Bigbadjohn, Silverhow
5.55 -maximum 33/1 - Rosie McQueen, Boston Heather, Troubleed Soul, Ballydarsi

Hexham

2.15 maximum 25/1 - Bako de la Sallate, Granard, Free Range, Heart of Keenow, The Paddy Pie
3.25 Born for war, Classical Milano, Spinning Scooter,Eager to Know, Frank the Slink
4.00 maximum 25/1 - Sharp Response, Captain Mowbray
4.35 maximum 14/1 - John Williams, Charlie Snow Angel, Chateau Chinon, Reverse the Charge, Kisumu

A lot of selections which hopefully produces a profit

Good luck all
Report kw October 13, 2018 7:18 PM BST
Absolute disaster in the win market. Kept hitting the bar. Each way probably OK but that is not what is required. Close but need to recover.
Report bettinghelp October 13, 2018 9:46 PM BST
kw, you said you'd appreciate comments.

This project isn't going to end well. From 2 comments you made..... "However if profiling says that horses carrying 11:00 to 11:3 have only won 1 in 30 races then you can leave them alone..."  and  "( only if NOT 8/1 to 10/1 )" make it clear what you're doing.

You're backfitting results. I did it in 2003-2004 and spent the next decade learning that it just doesn't work.
Report kw October 14, 2018 10:44 AM BST
Thanks " betting help". You may well be right but any kind of study has to involve looking at the past. I've done the stuff for today so I might as well put it up.

Chepstow

4.35 I'm a game changer, Vado Forte, Not That Fuisse, Honest Vic
5.10 Art Mauresque, Shanhans Turn, Marracudja

Cheers all.
Report bettinghelp October 14, 2018 11:33 AM BST
Yes, look at the past, but just plucking random parameters out that don't profitably fit your desired output (e.g. NOT 8/1 to 10/1) is simply back-fitting. It won't work.
Report DFCIRONMAN October 14, 2018 1:39 PM BST
kw    05 Oct 18 09:23 
5th October selections

Fontwell
2.05 Workbench, Windplaceandsho, Magical Thomas
3.50 Cabaret Queen

Hexham
2.50 Tara Mac, Theatre Act
4.00 Alfie's Choice, Placedela Concord
4.35 Jaunty Thor, Notonebuttwo, Eager To Know
5.10 Wyfield Rose

12 selections
Just some info
All these selections are based on Adran Massey's stats
and I have not included anything that long term has not provided a minimum ROI of 175% and usually over 200%. Also nearly all have also shown a profit in every year since 2012. Those that havnt have a high overall ROI. Hopefully this will continue. Good luck today
======================================================================

If you are going by "stats" from a website, then it all depends on whether the GOING when stats were prepared is the same as when the race is run.

In UK the GOING changes so frequently , that this will be an "obstacle" to using such "stats".

If you have your own method of RATING a race, then you can adjust the RATINGS to take account of such GOING CHANGES.

If you can ADJUST stats to take account of such CHANGES, then this should, if you are knowledgeable enough, improve your selection process.

Even some ALL WEATHER race courses can have variable GOING ( IMO), that RATINGS need to take account of such WEATHER CHANGES.

CHEPSTOW started off GOOD TO SOFT yesterday, but unfortunately the GOING CHANGED to SOFT......and this was all the races there that you selected.

I know this is an obvious "obstacle", but trust you will find this post helpful.

GL
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