Exchange Liquidity RIP?

I noticed very poor liquidity on the PL correct score markets earlier in the week. I'm not sure if it picked up the las couple of days or not as I didn't look.

It could be that a big player has pulled out or maybe pulled their bots for other reasons?

Always going to be hard for the exchange markets to compete with the bookies spreads  on football especially with 5% comms and higher for PC payers.  I'd guess some market makers have decided to try their luck elsewhere as it can't be fun pricing up a market only for Betfair to come along and leech off your profits with the x-matcher.

RIP

CS liquidity in particular can be woeful these days.
You can see why traders etc would think it's not worth the effort.

CS liquidity is all provided by bots.  It's virtually the perfect market for automation, with prices being provided from highly efficient and established goal expectancy and match prices.  With the bot built and making money it requires almost no effort, unless it is flawed in some way and/or can't cover commission satisfactorily.  More likely not enough backers

Trading CS was probably my first venture into trading. I noticed a real drop off in what I was making 3 or 4 years ago.  Something fundamental changed.  I'm almost certain it was a significant drop off in the number of backers as I only seemed to be getting matched when the bot took me out as a result of match odds/goal expectancy changing.  This appears to have got worse over last few years - wasting my time in anything other than the biggest matches now.  So I've pretty much pulled out and I expect others have too.  HT/FT looks even worse, been a big drop off this season.

Not just football though.  Look at Set Betting for Isner v Anderson in an hour's time or so.  £800 matched and a 108.4% book with not much money there.  Will be partly down to it no longer being on tv but all these side markets across all sports are being hit hard.  Betfair's solution is to just cull them!

Actually £173 matched in Set Betting.

Something is changing now. Im glad that I gave up as full time. Nothing to come back to now. Im fan of p2p betting not p2b. I think many others too. Uber driver in LND can have 1700 a week(many hours- its real! How much time skilfull trader need to make that amount here ?
Vendors seem to be loosing csms as Geeks is lowering price to balance the book I suppose. BF is out of date, boring. They had a problem with exchange in 2011. Corcoran used customer base to transfer them to sportsbook. There is no chance that they find a solution now what to do. No chance!

"I'm almost certain it was a significant drop off in the number of backers as I only seemed to be getting matched when the bot took me out as a result of match odds/goal expectancy changing."
This is the correct score market of the last few years summarised in one sentence.

(Apart from that time some idiot russian roulette player came along laying 0-0 at silly odds thinking he was on to a gold mine until of course the 0-0s start coming and he was wiped out with huge losses, he was setting up eye watering liabilities).

if i was betfair i'd change the name of the betfair exchange to just 'the exchange' or sth like that. Even their advertising is confusing for the gen public now. They are telling the public the best prices are on the exchange - so dont bet on the sportsbook then? It's madness.

They're intentionally confusing people.  Advertise the best prices are on Betfair (exchange in small print) so people go to Betfair.com, arrive at the Sportsbook and bet their thinking it's the best price.  I know intelligent people who have done this as they're not hardcore gamblers so unaware of difference between Betfair (exchange) and Betfair (sportsbook).  Betfair love diverting these people to the sportsbook.  It's one of many reasons the exchange revenue is only growing in line with inflation.

too many markets for a start, so any money is spread too thin. most of the markets have one or two matched £6 bets at silly odds which I assume is betfair trying to make it look like there is some activity,

bit like Marts bets, you wonder how much is really being traded.

good point, templeton

There is no real liquidity anymore.You all know how the price moves around for pennies as soon as you ask for a price.
I would a very high percentage (say 85% )of  outsiders in American horse racing ,are now bigger S.P. odds backing in the tote pools.
The liquidity there is not real at all and is just run by the BF algosNothing of value is offered ever.
Cannot remember getting matched when asking for a price.Very rarely happens nowadays.
On the US RACING the price can hit say 4.0 about 10x in one minute,but if I ask for 4.0 the price moves and stays around 3.8.If
real people where here someone would have taken the 4.0.
The place is beyond a joke now.

Very good point Templeton.

There are loads of soccer markets in far flung lands which have no meaning or interest to the average punter with no or little activity and prices moving in tune with time played being controlled by bots. If you put up a back or lay at a realistic price it wont get matched until the algorithm accepts it in the decay, and if you want to green after a goal the same control applies. For me, trading on my opinion is becoming harder because of the points raised on this thread, rather than trading against someone elses opinion. It's me versus a bot.

Is p to p now a myth?

I also agree with Templeton.

They might as well call last rites on CS, Ibiggest game of the day surely is France vs Germany, look at the CS odds, apart from a bit of activity on 0-0 about the only reason anything is being matched in any real way is the bots moving.

Can't believe anyone is a "full time trader" on football these days!

"Apart from that time some idiot russian roulette player came along laying 0-0 at silly odds thinking he was on to a gold mine until of course the 0-0s start coming"
Maybe I spoke too soon, maybe he's reloaded and having another go...

(Germany vs France, related odds didn't move, 0-0 and 0.5 both shot up about 8 clicks in a minute, classic "the mad 0-0 layer" move.

Well all in all a very satisfying evening :)

98% of the time I have sympathy for fellow betfairians if they lose but I got so fed up the mad 0-0 layer a while back suddenly doing insane huge lays well above the "correct" odds (like driving a 0-0 market from 12 to 18 over the course of a few minutes with vast sized lays and such insanity), that's the one thing I have no sympathy for. Fairly sure was wiped out as the madness stopped after some inevitable 0-0s came in.

Today all of a sudden 0-0 and 0.5 in Germany France shot up from about 15-16 to 20/21/22 for no apparent reason as someone laid the h3ll out of it, there were suddenly £1000s going in to lay at 20+. The market had started the day at 12s.

And what do you know, ends 0-0 . Hopefully that'll cause a rethink, assuming it's the same guy.
(0.5 matched)
18.00      £5,100
18.50      £5,163
19.00      £1,957
19.50      £4,803
20.00      £14,595
21.00      £12,974
22.00      £160
0-0 smaller but same idea....

I've noticed these kind of arguments on quite a lot of cricket and tennis markets particularly. Looks like the markets are popular because of money waiting to be matched, but far lower actual liquidity.

Gangs of angry bots facing each other off across a room with the odd little player mouse coming in taking a nibble and running away

that's me

I'm still hungry

I'm still hungry

clearly drunk

1405 Kempton how far market no bots lets get involved
and they set it up correctly...nice

Sep 8, 2018 -- 12:40PM, Just Checking wrote:

Gangs of angry bots facing each other off across a room with the odd little player mouse coming in taking a nibble and running away

Yep, I feel like that mouse far too often these days.

0-0 laying lunatic seems to have not learned lesson and just popped up on the wales game.

exact same modus operandi, must have been saving up feverishly since the Leverkusen-Athletico Madrid 0-0er.

Betfair's exchange days are numbered.

Betfair's exchange days are numbered.

Betfair's exchange days are numbered.

Betfair's exchange days are numbered.

Betfair's exchange days are numbered.

Betfair's exchange days are numbered.

Yes die linke, and interstingly he seems to be now favouring 0.5 vs 0-0s with the huge above the odds lay values.

value backs if you can get 19-20/1 on a 12/1 shot!

And there he goes gain, Brum v Brom, exact same pattern. Huge amounts appearing on 0.5.

What I find STRANGE is that 0.5 was never a big money market with that amount of money waiting to be BACKED by a suicidal layer, especially in a championship game. Very odd.....

14k layed in one spike on 0.5 and at same time 5.5k on 0-0. Same guy every time I'm sure...

Looking at Saturday markets remember PL game 12:30 on betdak was 500k matched mecause of 0 commission. Betfair - 1h to go 350k matched huge game Tottenham at Wembley playing Liverpool. Betfair do somtehing with customers, they are not here!

remember the 'daq counts matched volume differently to here (though the difference will be less marked on Football than Racing)

Sep 15, 2018 -- 12:32PM, siwaadupa wrote:

Looking at Saturday markets remember PL game 12:30 on betdak was 500k matched mecause of 0 commission. Betfair - 1h to go 350k matched huge game Tottenham at Wembley playing Liverpool. Betfair do somtehing with customers, they are not here!

same for live NFL !!

They double up matched volume here though anyway so unless **** triples it not sure how it could be inflated!

lol I did a swear. Bet-dook.

Correct me if I'm wrong but Bet-dook multiply stake by odds.  So £2 on 20 would show as £40 matched there and just £4 on Betfair.  In other words, Bet-dook show stake plus liability whereas Betfair shows stake plus stake.

Am I the only one to read siwaadupa post as £500K matched against £350K BUT the Betfair's figure was at 11.30

and Purple's was much later (possibly at kick off or at the end of the game)

There is no way that they are from the same time which made the whole post meaningless.

@Just Checking

if you match £2 @ 100 on here, BF counts that as £4 matched (as you say, it's doubled)

if you match £2 @ 100 on the 'daq or mbook, they count the £2 backer's stake and £198 layer's liability and call it £200 matched.

So the effect isn't huge in Tennis and Football when very often the selections are trading around 2.0 or 3.0, but can be marked in Racing.

(or I could have just read what Templeton wrote before I started typing)

@longbridge Haha!  I was wondering whilst reading your post why you were just repeating what I said!

Lunatic 0-0 layer seems to have decided AC milan is the call tonight. 0.5s currently sitting by my recking approximately DOUBLE the odds they should be.

Re how much is traded, far prefer the betfair way as it makes sense, the betdook way sounds totally stupid and contrived to make the volume seem bigger.

0.5 now up from 20 to 46. Unbelievable. I sometimes wonder if it's some rich person like a fairly dim footballer with money to burn having a laugh, it doesn't make "gambling" sense.

2000 matched on 44. Who is that confident it won't be 0-0 they'll punt 44k liability laying it, along with all the other huge amounts?

Just Checking 20 Sep 18 19:29 
Re how much is traded, far prefer the betfair way as it makes sense, the betdook way sounds totally stupid and contrived to make the volume seem bigger.

Is there any difference between a £200 back at 1.01 and a £2 lay at 100 ?  Both staking 200 to win 2
On the other site I'm not sure but reading above it seems both count the same towards volume. On here the former counts £400 towards volume matched and the latter £4. Now that seems totally stupid to me

0-0 man stung on the Chelsea game but not deterred

He's going after the Arsenal game. 0-0 now trading at 40.

More money than sense.

Yes saw that Hans. Always the same, some point a bit before kick off the sudden huge lay on 0.5 comes in.

Today he's driven it from what .. 32/34 to 40/42 with a single spike of looks like approx a £17.5k lay, and totals are:
38.00      £1,641
40.00      £34,152

Such huge liabilities!

Wasn't that move just in response to overs shortening across the board?  Didn't look strange to me.

No that's never the case with this, 2.5 rarely shifts in the slightest. And it's always huge big single lays that stand out as a massive spike on the traded chart. One of them the odds for 0-0 were pretty much double what they would normally be.

Do the odds correct themselves quickly in-play JC?

Like others have said, just sounds like a great mug punt opportunity if they don't, trading opportunity if they do.

With the Arsenal match under 2.5 lengthened though.  I was keeping an eye on it and 0-0 drifted as under 2.5 drifted.  Didn't shoot out in one trade either.

All I can say is I've seen countless examples of what I'm talking about above, and I follow these markets and have done for years.

I'm not saying it's not happening but it didn't in that Arsenal match.  I've been trading Premier League CS market for over a decade, albeit it's not something I put any effort into nowadays, and I didn't see anything unusual.  I've been keeping an eye out for this layer but haven't seen him in the PL yet.

Although if you're saying £34k was matched at 40 then maybe I missed something.  I certainly didn't feel the move to 40 was unusual but that amount AT 40 is.

Madrid vs bruge. Right now, look at 0.5, the huge amount suddenly laying 0.5, then look at 2.5.

STrange the £7.7k suddenly laying 0.5 that was part of a push up to 19, noticably above the "odds", has just disappeared.

Is it you?

Sounds to me as though its a cross-market PC play, albeit on weird lines. Since PC was introduced, losing is the new winning

No. it's a high roller mug. Operated through a large chunk of the 16/17 season, built up his liabilities from about 100k in Nov 16 through to about 1 million in March 17, when he lost it all. Appeared for a game at the start of 17/18 (i assume it was the same person). Now been back for a month.

Fascinating. Do you have any source on those figures?

Just my records of the matches and the liabilities being compounded, it could be he was operating before that point to build up to the 100K but i didn't pick it up since the amounts weren't obvious with respect to overall market volume. Athletic Madrid vs Leverkusen Champions League in March 17 seems to be his major nemesis, though he did dabble in a couple of games the following weekend, before disappearing into the ether.

Oct 3, 2018 -- 8:57PM, Just Checking wrote:

STrange the £7.7k suddenly laying 0.5 that was part of a push up to 19, noticably above the "odds", has just disappeared.Is it you?

Haha!  No, not me.  I guess I'd have to start looking at more CS markets to catch him in action as not on here often enough to catch you bringing it to our attention in time.

Andriy is correct, I had a thread following his antics on the football forum a year or two back when he used to do it.

It was so bizarre I was trying to work out if it was just russian roulette or a wierd tactic or more "out there" theories.

But high roller mug is probably correct :)

Birmingham game, unders coming down, but there goes the 7k 0.5 lay spike.

Leeds v Brentford. 2.5 has not moved a JOT, pretty much flatline. And sure enough, once again, 0.5 shoots up from 17.5 to 23 in pretty much one bound, with graph showing a single clear lay of 8 thousand pounds up to 21 taking everything with it.

I dont really get all this bot stuff . Just put your price up , back or lay , and leave it . Turn computer off and if it gets matched or not you are getting value over time if you are doing it correctly .