General Betting
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Not using "system" as would take too long to feed in 40 runners
GOING :- This is the hardest factor in race to"know" , as by 5.15 pm it might be GOOD !
As going currently "in between" this murkies the waters alot....in favour of bookies.
FITNESS FACTOR :- IMO horse should have participated in at least 4 races this season, though IF going is "in between" perhaps 2 to 3 races this season MIGHT be enough for fitness.
JOCKEYS :- Quite confusing the number of jockeys who often rode for certain trainers/owners frequently....but are riding for trainers who appear to have a good shout this year. This again is in bookies favour!
GENERALLY :- A very difficult race THIS YEAR to try to get winner.......
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Hopefully the going will stay IN BETWEEN and the winner might come from :-
BLACKLION
SAPHIRE DU RHEU
UNCELLO CONTI
MORE OF THAT
ROI DES FRANCES
PLACE horses perhaps the Pipe ones are "interesting" at the odds :-
BALLYNAGOUR - seems to be prepared for this race...and might be a "dark horse" ......Going probably needs to be GOOD though...but odds make it worth a shout!
LA VATICANE - is another one from same stable that has factors in favour toperhaps get into top 6.
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Not sure about DEFINITELY RED....as has strong factors in favour.....especially if GOOD going. Trainer is a very good trainer...but just prefer some of the other ones above to have a stronger shout. May well win....but IF going is IN BETWEEN, suspect might only PLACE ...but odds not that attractive.
If going is GOOD.....V Williams has 2 in race....and HOUBLON DES OBEAUX might get into 6 places.
GL with race.
GOING :- This is the hardest factor in race to"know" , as by 5.15 pm it might be GOOD !
As going currently "in between" this murkies the waters alot....in favour of bookies.
FITNESS FACTOR :- IMO horse should have participated in at least 4 races this season, though IF going is "in between" perhaps 2 to 3 races this season MIGHT be enough for fitness.
JOCKEYS :- Quite confusing the number of jockeys who often rode for certain trainers/owners frequently....but are riding for trainers who appear to have a good shout this year. This again is in bookies favour!
GENERALLY :- A very difficult race THIS YEAR to try to get winner.......
==================================================
Hopefully the going will stay IN BETWEEN and the winner might come from :-
BLACKLION
SAPHIRE DU RHEU
UNCELLO CONTI
MORE OF THAT
ROI DES FRANCES
PLACE horses perhaps the Pipe ones are "interesting" at the odds :-
BALLYNAGOUR - seems to be prepared for this race...and might be a "dark horse" ......Going probably needs to be GOOD though...but odds make it worth a shout!
LA VATICANE - is another one from same stable that has factors in favour toperhaps get into top 6.
====================================================
Not sure about DEFINITELY RED....as has strong factors in favour.....especially if GOOD going. Trainer is a very good trainer...but just prefer some of the other ones above to have a stronger shout. May well win....but IF going is IN BETWEEN, suspect might only PLACE ...but odds not that attractive.
If going is GOOD.....V Williams has 2 in race....and HOUBLON DES OBEAUX might get into 6 places.
GL with race.
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MATT CHAPMAN has just blethered re PLACE betting ...again!
Omitted to mention BETFAIR ...re 10 PLACES or even 6 PLACES! What a biased numpty! |
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Another FACTOR worth mentioning is the TIME OF RACE !
I suspect that older horses might appreciated it being cooler by 5.15 pm. |
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Going will need to be GOOD though IMO for older horses......but 8 yods might be too good for em to win!
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As going looks likely to be drying out ....then by 5.15 pm GOOD is very likely.
If so ;- then WINNER might come from :- BLACKLION MORE OF THAT UCELLO CONTI VICENTI CAUSE OF CAUSES BALLYNAGOUR HOUBLONG DES OBEAUX The 2 in bold appear likely to go well on GOOD........but suspect at the finish there might be 10 horses in with a shout........so GL in race. |
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Last thought !
The FACTOR that race is at 5.15 pm means should be cooler ....therefore for the first time in years the top weights in handicap are being given a better chance to win IMO. Therefore if GOOD going by race time, the winner is very likely to come from top 6 in race. SAPHIR DU RHEU might well be the winner That is it! |
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TOP 10 IN HANDICAP ARE :-
10 Blaklion 14 2 More Of That 21 1 The Last Samuri 23 5 Saphir Du Rheu 25 8 Wonderful Charm 38 4 Perfect Candidate 44 9 Tenor Nivernais 55 7 Wounded Warrior 60 3 Shantou Flyer 100 6 Roi Des Francs 90 ========================================================== As 10 places on BF, I wonder how many of top 10 in Handicap will be placed there. Suspect 6 will be ! Right that is last post....GL with race. |
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Still looks pretty warm at AINTREE, so might not be cool enough for the top 10 in handicap........
So perhaps my guess NOW re winner if GOOD going might be the one that is more likely where the winner comes from , especially the ones in BOLD:- WINNER might come from :- SAPHIR DU RHEU BLACKLION MORE OF THAT UCELLO CONTI VICENTI CAUSE OF CAUSES BALLYNAGOUR HOUBLONG DES OBEAUX |
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Winner BUMPED BLAKLION at last .................probably still would have won!
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HOW MANY OF TOP 10 IN HANDICAP WERE PLACED IN TOP 10 :-
10 Blaklion 4TH 2 More Of That 1 The Last Samuri 5 Saphir Du Rheu 8 Wonderful Charm 4 Perfect Candidate 9 Tenor Nivernais 7 Wounded Warrior 3 Shantou Flyer 6 Roi Des Francs ======================================================== So too hot for the top 10 in H/C |
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Where my final "guess" horses finished :-
SAPHIR DU RHEU BLAKLION 4TH MORE OF THAT UCELLO CONTI VICENTI CAUSE OF CAUSES 2ND BALLYNAGOUR HOUBLONG DES OBEAUX 10TH at 50-1 sp ================================================= Bad bump from winner near end of race probably finished off BLAKLION's chance to win! BALLYNAGOUR the dark horse could not quite make finishing in top 10....finished 11th. Older horses did ok re top 10 finishers ... SAINT ARE 3RD at 25-1sp 11 yo GASLINEBOY 5TH at 50-1sp 11 yo LORD WINDERMERE 7TH at 33-1sp 11 yo HOUBLONG DES OBEAUX 10TH at 50-1 sp 10 yo ============================================= So out of four 11 yods.....3 in top 10 finishers. Ground too slow for the one 12 yo in race IMO. Enjoyed the race...... Cheers the noooooooooo |
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There were 5 11 yods in race...so 3 in top 10 should read!
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