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DFCIRONMAN
08 Apr 17 13:37
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Date Joined: 04 Dec 04
| Topic/replies: 29,282 | Blogger: DFCIRONMAN's blog
Not using "system" as would take too long to feed in 40 runnersDevilGrin

GOING :- This is the hardest factor in race to"know" , as by 5.15 pm it might be GOOD !

As going currently "in between" this murkies the waters alot....in favour of bookies.

FITNESS FACTOR :- IMO horse should have participated in at least 4 races this season, though IF going is "in between" perhaps 2 to 3 races this season MIGHT be enough for fitness.

JOCKEYS :- Quite confusing the number of jockeys who often rode for certain trainers/owners frequently....but are riding for trainers who appear to have a good shout this year. This again is in bookies favour!

GENERALLY :- A very difficult race THIS YEAR to try to get winner.......Tongue Out
==================================================

Hopefully the going will stay IN BETWEEN and the winner might come from :-

BLACKLION
SAPHIRE DU RHEU
UNCELLO CONTI
MORE OF THAT
ROI DES FRANCES

PLACE horses perhaps the Pipe ones are "interesting" at the odds :-

BALLYNAGOUR - seems to be prepared for this race...and might be a "dark horse" ......Going probably needs to be  GOOD though...but odds make it worth a shout!

LA VATICANE - is another one from same stable that has factors in favour toperhaps get into top 6.


====================================================

Not sure about DEFINITELY RED....as has strong factors in favour.....especially if GOOD going. Trainer is a very good trainer...but just prefer some of the other ones above to have a stronger shout. May well win....but IF going is IN BETWEEN, suspect might only PLACE ...but odds not that attractive.

If going is GOOD.....V Williams has 2 in race....and HOUBLON DES OBEAUX might get into 6 places.

GL with race.
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Report DFCIRONMAN April 8, 2017 2:46 PM BST
MATT CHAPMAN has just blethered re PLACE betting ...again!

Omitted to mention BETFAIR ...re 10 PLACES or even 6 PLACES!

What a biased numpty!
Report DFCIRONMAN April 8, 2017 2:50 PM BST
Another FACTOR worth mentioning is the TIME OF RACE !

I suspect that older horses might appreciated it being cooler by 5.15 pm.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 8, 2017 2:56 PM BST
Going will need to be GOOD though IMO for older horses......but 8 yods might be too good for em to win!
Report DFCIRONMAN April 8, 2017 3:09 PM BST
As going looks likely to be drying out ....then by 5.15 pm GOOD is very likely.


If so ;- then

WINNER might come from :-

BLACKLION
MORE OF THAT
UCELLO CONTI
VICENTI
CAUSE OF CAUSES
BALLYNAGOUR
HOUBLONG DES OBEAUX

The 2 in bold appear likely to go well on GOOD........but suspect at the finish there might be 10 horses in with a shout........so GL in race.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 8, 2017 3:21 PM BST
Last thought !

The FACTOR that race is at 5.15 pm means should be cooler ....therefore for the first time in years the top weights in handicap are being given a better chance to win IMO.


Therefore if GOOD going by race time, the winner is  very likely to come from top 6 in race.

SAPHIR DU RHEU might well be the winner

That is it!
Report DFCIRONMAN April 8, 2017 4:22 PM BST
TOP 10 IN HANDICAP ARE :-


10    Blaklion      14
   
2     More Of That  21

1     The Last Samuri 23
   
5     Saphir Du Rheu  25

8     Wonderful Charm 38

4     Perfect Candidate 44

9     Tenor Nivernais   55

7     Wounded Warrior   60

3     Shantou Flyer    100

6     Roi Des Francs    90

==========================================================

As 10 places on BF, I wonder how many of top 10 in Handicap will be placed there. Suspect 6 will be !


Right that is last post....GL with race.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 8, 2017 4:57 PM BST
Still looks pretty warm at AINTREE, so might not be cool enough for the top 10 in handicap........

So perhaps my  guess NOW re winner if GOOD going might be the one that is more likely where the winner comes from , especially the ones in BOLD:-


WINNER might come from :-



SAPHIR DU RHEU
BLACKLION
MORE OF THAT
UCELLO CONTI

VICENTI
CAUSE OF CAUSES
BALLYNAGOUR
HOUBLONG DES OBEAUX
Report DFCIRONMAN April 8, 2017 5:33 PM BST
Winner BUMPED BLAKLION at last .................probably still would have won!
Report DFCIRONMAN April 8, 2017 5:47 PM BST
HOW MANY OF TOP 10 IN HANDICAP WERE PLACED IN TOP 10  :-


10    Blaklion               4TH
   
2     More Of That 

1     The Last Samuri
   
5     Saphir Du Rheu 

8     Wonderful Charm         

4     Perfect Candidate

9     Tenor Nivernais   

7     Wounded Warrior   

3     Shantou Flyer   

6     Roi Des Francs   

========================================================


So too hot for the top 10 in H/C
Report DFCIRONMAN April 8, 2017 5:57 PM BST
Where my final "guess" horses finished :-


SAPHIR DU RHEU
BLAKLION             4TH     
MORE OF THAT
UCELLO CONTI
VICENTI
CAUSE OF CAUSES       2ND
BALLYNAGOUR
HOUBLONG DES OBEAUX   10TH     at 50-1 sp


=================================================


Bad bump from winner near end of race probably finished off BLAKLION's chance to win!


BALLYNAGOUR the dark horse could not quite make finishing in top 10....finished 11th.


Older horses did ok re top 10 finishers ...

SAINT ARE    3RD at 25-1sp     11 yo
GASLINEBOY   5TH at 50-1sp     11 yo
LORD WINDERMERE  7TH at 33-1sp 11 yo
HOUBLONG DES OBEAUX 10TH at 50-1 sp  10 yo

=============================================


So out of four 11 yods.....3 in top 10 finishers.

Ground too slow for the one 12 yo in race IMO.


Enjoyed the race......

Cheers the noooooooooo
Report DFCIRONMAN April 8, 2017 5:59 PM BST
There were 5 11 yods in race...so 3 in top 10 should read!
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