General Betting
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Hi all need help with the following.
If i back a team / horse / dog etc @ say 2.0 at what price does the selection need to contract to for me to lay it and secure a 10% profit. I am really looking for the equation so I can work out various trades to guarantee a 5% /10% / 25% profit regardless of result.
Thank you.
If i back a team / horse / dog etc @ say 2.0 at what price does the selection need to contract to for me to lay it and secure a 10% profit. I am really looking for the equation so I can work out various trades to guarantee a 5% /10% / 25% profit regardless of result.
Thank you.
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Not including commission id say around 1.82
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what it doesnot contract
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if
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then theres no opportunity to trade out
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Totally off topic, but I was at Coalville yesterday.
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there is software out there that u can programme in percentage win.
ie say 10% as soon as you bet a selection say at evens, the software put in a bet at 1..80 to lay |
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Why not use .....
http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/hedging-calculator |
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Betfair lay does this for you:
add the % profit you want to your back stake in the stake lay box put up the odds you got to your back bet press the black down arrow till it matches the back bet profit |
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The maths behind greening up is relatively simple, just a balanced equation. Things might start to look complicated when you start taking into account commission rates etc but as long as you do it step by step it's not too hard.
THe basic maths behind it is New_Odds x New_Stakes = Original_Odds x Original_Stakes to get the New_Odds we simply divide both sides by New_Stakes New_Odds = Original_Odds x Original_Stakes/New_Stakes Because your New_Stakes will simply be a Percentage of the Original_Stakes we can say New_Stakes = Original_Stakes x (100 + Percentage)/100 If we want to take Commission into account we adjust that to New_Stakes = Original_Stakes x (100 + Percentage)/100 x -(100/(Commission-100)) So replacing New_Stakes in our equation we have New_Odds = Original_Odds x Original_Stakes/(Original_Stakes x (100 + Percentage)/100 x -(100/(Commission-100))) To simplify that equation fully we end up with a simple equation of New_Odds = − Original_Odds(Commission−100)/(Percentage + 100) |
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If you don't want to take into account your commission rate you can simply use
New_Odds = (100 x Original_Odds)/(Percentage + 100) |
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Help me with this Ghetto
Three horse race A 50% B 40% C 10% winning chances What are the odds on each finishing 1st or 2nd Thanks |
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You need to look up the Harville method which basically treats it as a set of races, so If horse A wins you now simply treat it as a separate race between B and C to come first (i.e. second to A). Then recalculate assuming C has won the race and therefore no longer in the separate race to be second to C. The problem is it overestimates odds on chances and also fancied runners probably because they may not be trying as hard to place as they were to win.
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Thanks Ghetto
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Got a fix
A = 88.88 chance of being in the first 2 B = 84.45 C = 26.67 200.00 Total |