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Coalville
15 Oct 16 19:49
Joined:
Date Joined: 25 Nov 03
| Topic/replies: 23 | Blogger: Coalville's blog
Hi all need help with the following.

If i back a team / horse / dog etc @ say 2.0 at what price does the selection need to contract to for me to lay it and secure a 10% profit. I am really looking for the equation so I can work out various trades to guarantee a 5% /10% / 25% profit regardless of result.

Thank you.
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Report plotdraw October 15, 2016 8:54 PM BST
Not including commission id say around 1.82
Report freddiewilliams October 15, 2016 8:58 PM BST
what it doesnot contract
Report freddiewilliams October 15, 2016 8:59 PM BST
if
Report Coalville October 15, 2016 9:01 PM BST
then theres no opportunity to trade out
Report s.kenbo October 16, 2016 6:36 PM BST
Totally off topic, but I was at Coalville yesterday. Grin
Report starship October 19, 2016 3:50 PM BST
there is software out there that u can programme in percentage win.
ie say 10%
as soon as you bet a selection say at evens,
the software put in a bet at 1..80 to lay
Report DFCIRONMAN November 9, 2016 10:39 PM GMT
Why not use .....


http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/hedging-calculator
Report dunter1 November 10, 2016 12:37 PM GMT
Betfair lay does this for you:
add the % profit you want to your back stake in the stake lay box
put up the odds you got to your back bet
press the black down arrow till it matches the back bet profit
Report Ghetto Joe November 12, 2016 7:40 PM GMT
The maths behind greening up is relatively simple, just a balanced equation. Things might start to look complicated when you start taking into account commission rates etc but as long as you do it step by step it's not too hard.

THe basic maths behind it is

New_Odds x New_Stakes = Original_Odds x Original_Stakes

to get the New_Odds we simply divide both sides by New_Stakes

New_Odds  = Original_Odds x Original_Stakes/New_Stakes


Because your New_Stakes will simply be a Percentage of the Original_Stakes we can say

New_Stakes =  Original_Stakes x (100 + Percentage)/100

If we want to take Commission into account we adjust that to

New_Stakes =  Original_Stakes x (100 + Percentage)/100 x -(100/(Commission-100))


So replacing New_Stakes in our equation we have

New_Odds  = Original_Odds x Original_Stakes/(Original_Stakes x (100 + Percentage)/100 x -(100/(Commission-100)))

To simplify that equation fully we end up with a simple equation of


New_Odds = − Original_Odds(Commission−100)/(Percentage + 100)
Report Ghetto Joe November 12, 2016 7:53 PM GMT
If you don't want to take into account your commission rate you can simply use

New_Odds = (100 x Original_Odds)/(Percentage + 100)
Report dunter1 November 22, 2016 4:24 PM GMT
Help me with this Ghetto

Three horse race A 50% B 40% C 10% winning chances

What are the odds on each finishing 1st or 2nd

Thanks
Report Ghetto Joe November 28, 2016 5:28 PM GMT
You need to look up the  Harville method which basically treats it as a set of races, so If horse A wins you now simply treat it as a separate race between B and C to come first (i.e. second to A). Then recalculate assuming C has won the race and therefore no longer in the separate race to be second to C. The problem is it overestimates odds on chances and also fancied runners probably because they may not be trying as hard to place as they were to win.
Report dunter1 November 29, 2016 4:10 PM GMT
Thanks Ghetto
Report dunter1 November 30, 2016 7:31 PM GMT
Got a fix
A = 88.88 chance of being in the first 2
B = 84.45
C = 26.67
   200.00     Total
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