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pmbets
02 Apr 16 21:24
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Date Joined: 24 May 06
| Topic/replies: 5,930 | Blogger: pmbets's blog
I ask for a price and never get matched just get a £2 smaller ask from the bots.
Ask for a price and the market goes crazy.Be out the market and it's quiet.
Just bot imho.Totally illiquid and totally useless.
This is USA horse racing all night.Any opinions?
Is this the end of the exchange.Remember 2003-2005 we used to put about £5k each at great lake downs with
well over 1/2 million matched each race.

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Replies: 44
By:
11kv
When: 02 Apr 16 22:13
bots have ruined this site............................
By:
hartani
When: 03 Apr 16 16:29
Betfair have diverted all dumb money to the sports book. Not even the price rush goes to the exchange now. Just bots left and Betfair don't care, the exchange is dying.
By:
pmbets
When: 03 Apr 16 17:24
The exchange is in a very bad way now.It has a feel of the very very early days when there was so little money
around.Except now it is dying not growing.
By:
roache
When: 03 Apr 16 19:57
By betfairs own admission 70% of its business on the exchange now is by bots
By:
Coachbuster
When: 03 Apr 16 20:36
last rites
By:
Templeton Peck
When: 03 Apr 16 21:18
Bots, bots, bots.  Like you say, plenty of markets remain empty if I don't put money down. In I go and bots can't help but jump ahead of me.
By:
Westender
When: 03 Apr 16 22:53

Apr 3, 2016 -- 4:29PM, hartani wrote:


Betfair have diverted all dumb money to the sports book. Not even the price rush goes to the exchange now. Just bots left and Betfair don't care, the exchange is dying.


It is now Paddy Power not Betfair - in fact it has been since the current CEO started at Betfair in Aug 2012.

Betfair is finished for good and there is no way back now as a Bookmaker owns it.

Don't despair as  it is only a matter of time now before there is a new home for Exchange customers.

By:
fixed
When: 03 Apr 16 23:38
a bot is a human using a computer.....some use it to bet, others to copy paste the very same nonsense hundreds or thousands of times


i am sure there is somebody out there in the woods talking to himself about guys using an internet forum instead of a handwritten letter to show the world their ineptitude
By:
dave1357
When: 04 Apr 16 12:05

Apr 3, 2016 -- 9:18PM, Templeton Peck wrote:


Bots, bots, bots.

By:
freddiewilliams
When: 04 Apr 16 14:16
a bot is a human using a computer???????????........other 30% is????????
By:
Coachbuster
When: 04 Apr 16 14:39
should be a simple rule on ppbetfair - Bots can only be repositioned every hour  . 

Otherwise i'm all for them
By:
Ghetto Joe
When: 04 Apr 16 14:55
US racing on here died years ago, without bots they'd probably be no prices or action whatsoever. Used to be large amounts matched on most races but Betfair's incompetence and apathy killed them off a long time ago, they did the same to the financials that also used to have decent liquidity then they killed them with tradefair. Guess that's progress for you.
By:
11kv
When: 05 Apr 16 17:47
The bot is using the human imo..............
By:
curlywurly
When: 06 Apr 16 09:56
roache 03 Apr 16 19:57 Joined: 27 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 175 | Blogger: roache's blog
By betfairs own admission 70% of its business on the exchange now is by bots


I'd like to know the % of bot business that is betfairs own bots.
Pretty high imo
By:
11kv
When: 06 Apr 16 17:59
Betfair nicking money everywhere...................
By:
DStyle
When: 07 Apr 16 11:41
Betfair can't possibly know what percentage of submitted bets are made by bots.

They can report on how many bets are submitted via the website and their mobile platform and how many bets are submitted using the API.

But there is no information on whether these bets are coming from people or from automated autonomous software.

For example, i access the site via the API, but every bet I submit is manual. The software i use gives me improved navigation, some automated market analysis, a better view of many markets simultaneously and hedging functionality that's better than cash out. But the decision to submit the bet is always a manual one.

Likewise a bot (which is an automated program requiring no intervention) could be accessing the site via the URLs the website uses and so not show up on API bet submission counts.

We should probably also consider what construes "activity". Of course there are highly active bots on this site but how many of the bets they submit actually get matched? Or even have any chance of being matched. there is a semi-automated bot on tennis matches and you often see it chugging away, updating itself after a point is completed, on illiquid markets with the total matched not shifting an inch.
By:
YOMOMMA
When: 07 Apr 16 11:44
Joined: 27 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 176 | Blogger: roache's blog
By betfairs own admission 70% of its business on the exchange now is by bots#


I would hazard a guess it is nearer 80% bots now and most of that is botunfair themselves.
By:
Darlo Bantam
When: 07 Apr 16 16:25
Exactly DStyle. Pity so many people fail to realise this.
By:
Westender
When: 07 Apr 16 23:52
Wasn't long ago I was taking abuse on here for spelling out the facts - this place is absolutely fecked under the same Paddy Power Mgt that hijacked Betfair on 1 Aug 2012.
By:
frog2
When: 08 Apr 16 10:34
I don't think any one thing is to blame for BF no growing as much as many of us would have liked. The top four sports on here are football, cricket, racing and tennis. Football had £15bn traded in 2015. The other 3 had £10bn traded each in 2015.

Racing stopped growing after 2011 (no significant growth since 2008) and now is in decline.
Tennis stopped growing after 2012 and now is in decline.
Football  stopped growing after 2012 and now is in decline.
Cricket had its highest year in 2014. Too early to tell if in decline.

The reasons I see for the stop in growth:

1. Internet saturation in the western world by 2008. By then most sophisticated punters were here.
2. Product too complicated.
3. Fightback from the bookies. BOG, inplay etc.
4. Failure of Betfair to address clock beating.
5. Premium charge effecting more and more players.
6. Being a PLC limits access to grey markets (unlike 365).
7. Management short term outlook and experience in sportsbook not exchange.
8. No advertising for the exchange.
9. Affiliate deals lower for exchange than sportsbooks.
10. No education for exchange.
By:
longbridge
When: 08 Apr 16 15:15
Frog, where are you getting your traded volumes from?  Not that they sound wrong, just wondered about your source.

2015 Annual Report says "The Exchange remains our key differentiator and total trading volume increased to £55.3bn (FY14: £52.8bn). "
By:
Andriy
When: 08 Apr 16 15:48
Longbridge, i'm not sure if Frog's source is the same, but i've seen those sort of figures quoted in a thread on the Betangel forum, where a couple of people have broken down figures from the data.betfair files.

http://www.betangel.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=15&t=9402
By:
fixed
When: 08 Apr 16 16:31
2 reasons it's not possible to compare 2012 and 2015 data straight up:

exits from a number of countries
exchange and sportsbook linked in a number of ways now, so isolated exchange data doesn't tell whole story anymore


in general the exchange has probably matured and therefore changed but it's still a great product for everybody so pretty ridiculous and even sad to see a number of guys that may have failed to adapt to the maturation process constantly cry/scream on here
By:
DStyle
When: 08 Apr 16 18:05
the problem is that the only important figure is how much money changed hands at the end of the event which is information only available to betfair.
By:
frog2
When: 09 Apr 16 08:58
Those figures are broken down from data.betfair. They are traded volumes. I cannot say I have I them 100% accurrate because the datasets are large and fragmented. Correction from above football was more like £16bn in 2015.

Dstyle is correct the money changing hands is key and unknown to us. For instance if alot of the money is traded in play at short odds it will be worth less than preplay outright horseracing bets to BF. How much did Betfair make from the £2.5bn traded on last year's 60 IPL matches. We just dont know.

Before the sportsbook and Betfair moved offshore we could get the amount of commission made by BF on racing using the published levy figure.
By:
dave1357
When: 10 Apr 16 20:00
isn't the "commission" somewhere in the accounts?  If the city boys don't realise its the most important figure in the business, words fail me.
By:
spurs to buy big
When: 12 Apr 16 19:31
its much more Bot to Bot now ..its like that poker motto if you cantsee a mug in the market -you are the mug
By:
hartani
When: 15 Apr 16 22:31
fixed, you have really been suckered haven't you? The sportsbook and exchange are separate products, they are not linked. Betfair make it look that way for PR. If you don't believe me, try getting a price rush on the sportsbook and waiting for it to arrive on the exchange. Not only does it not give you the exchange price, it never hits the exchange. Try it!
By:
fixed
When: 16 Apr 16 04:20
your understanding of the price rush functionality is incomplete

there are multiple connections between sportsbook and exchange (overlapping customer base, hedging, price rush, cash out), so it's not possible anymore to separate these and get meaningful exchange-only turnover data
By:
Westender
When: 16 Apr 16 10:08
One piece of data is clear - the Exchange is fecked under Paddy Power Mgt
By:
hartani
When: 16 Apr 16 12:05
fixed, there are not multiple connections to the exchange anymore. Betfair are trying their hardest to push any money onto the high margin sportsbook, it's amazing people can't see this. You really have been suckered. Hedging, price rush and cash out are not linked to the exchange. Check it out, they have no impact on the exchange at all. Betfair are doing all that themselves now. Challenge Betfair on it, they can't deny it.
By:
Gallivanter
When: 16 Apr 16 21:54
I've been wondering about taking my poker business over to Betfair. Any suggestions as to the wisdom of this? I'm just a low stakes grinder.
By:
fixed
When: 17 Apr 16 18:55
of course they try to win as much as possible and therefore want the sportsbook to be the first thing any new customer runs into....any rational human/corporation would do this

but they also know that the exchange, who has all aforementioned connections to the sportbook, is a huge liquidity/hedging pool for all the action they can't handle with the sportsbook and as a natural monopoly gives them an edge no competitor can duplicate...it's their only real edge as all the basic sportsbook functionality can be found elsewhere


only a fool would anticipate them giving up such a valuable piece of business
By:
Westender
When: 17 Apr 16 21:01

Apr 17, 2016 -- 6:55PM, fixed wrote:


of course they try to win as much as possible and therefore want the sportsbook to be the first thing any new customer runs into....any rational human/corporation would do thisbut they also know that the exchange, who has all aforementioned connections to the sportbook, is a huge liquidity/hedging pool for all the action they can't handle with the sportsbook and as a natural monopoly gives them an edge no competitor can duplicate...it's their only real edge as all the basic sportsbook functionality can be found elsewhereonly a fool would anticipate them giving up such a valuable piece of business


Only the current fools would deliberately roger the Exchange Wink

By:
Darlo Bantam
When: 17 Apr 16 21:32
only a fool would anticipate them giving up such a valuable piece of business

Plenty of fools around here.
By:
YOMOMMA
When: 18 Apr 16 08:23
A fool and his money are soon parted.
By:
YOMOMMA
When: 18 Apr 16 22:30
proverb

A foolish person spends money carelessly and will soon be penniless.
By:
pxb
When: 19 Apr 16 00:03
only a fool would anticipate them giving up such a valuable piece of business

There are only 2 kinds of businesses; Large Volume and Large Margin. On the internet every business should be a Large Volume business because the incremental cost of a transaction is almost zero. Amazon being an example. They do vast volumes for very small margins.

BF is trying to run a Large Margin business on the internet, which is a recipe for failure.
By:
screaming from beneaththewaves
When: 19 Apr 16 10:16
Opening post the best punk single for years imo. Four beats to the bar:

D I ask for a price and A never get matched just E get a £2 smaller A ask from the bots.
D Ask for a price and the A market goes crazy.Be E out the market and it's A quiet.
Just G bot imh A7 o.G Totally illiquid and A7 totally useless.
D This is USA A horse racing all night. E Any opinions? A
D Is this the end A of the exchange.E Remember 200 A 3-2005 we D used to put about A £5k each at E great lake downs with
Am well over C 1/2 million G matched each D race.

Needs the minor chord at the end to express the nihilistic despair.
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