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Westender
08 Sep 15 16:19
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Date Joined: 04 Jan 06
| Topic/replies: 8,983 | Blogger: Westender's blog
December 2016 is my prediction.
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Report dave1357 September 9, 2015 12:54 PM BST
idiotic statement, you seriously think that the plan is to pay 3bn get a few 100k sports betters?
Report jamesdean September 9, 2015 1:30 PM BST
Take a day off Westender eh...it's getting boring
Report artie September 9, 2015 4:48 PM BST
"idiotic statement, you seriously think that the plan is to pay 3bn get a few 100k sports betters?"
Indeed.In fact a few sports betters who will eventually be restricted and then closed.
Report pxb September 9, 2015 9:42 PM BST
BF's business was valued at twice that of PP,adjusted for revenue and profit. Which very roughly means they expect BF to grow at twice the rate of PP. That growth has to come from the exchange. Nothing else in BF is particularly unique or valuable IMO.

If they thought the 'technology' was worth a billion plus, then they have been had.
Report bigH September 9, 2015 11:34 PM BST
an well-run exchange with reasonable commission rates should really be a licence to print money.

Just amazing how BF have foooooked it up so badly
Report Darlo Bantam September 10, 2015 12:44 AM BST
Just amazing how BF have foooooked it up so badly

That's really depending on your frame of opinion.
Report pxb September 10, 2015 1:46 AM BST
What surprises me is, BF lost money every year in Australia, until they sold out to Crown last year. They would have had almost no development costs as the exchange is identical to the UK. Especially surprising as I have read PP makes half its profits here.
Report Westender September 16, 2015 8:03 PM BST
Cheer up jamesdean Laugh

All businesses close one day.
Report Westender September 16, 2015 8:17 PM BST
What is the plan dave1357?

1. Abolish or significantly reduce premium charges?
2. Advertise the Exchange?
3. Make the Exchange the default page on  the Paddy Power website?
4. Match the wide range of live sports streams on Bet365?
5. Open the forum up to all Betfair and Paddy Power customers?

In summary, do you think the Exchange will suddenly be top priority of the current and future CEO's given what has happened to the Exchange since his appointment to Betfair?

Who do you think is going to continue to bet on the Exchange when winners are clobbered between 22.5% and 62.5% and losers lose 100%.

What is the plan dave1357?

Cannot wait to hear from you on how the Betting Exchange will be transformed back to the glory days 2001 to 2008. Laugh

Go on dave1357

Where are you?

Let's be having you

Come on Laugh
Report Westender September 17, 2015 9:01 AM BST
dave1357 slept under his bed last night and is refusing to come out to provide his explanation Laugh

An idiotic statement indeed Laugh
Report Westender September 17, 2015 10:48 AM BST
dave1357 does come across as a troll spouting out 'idiot' etc and he really has no clue.

Go on dave1357 - tell us the Paddy Power Plans to revitalise a dying Betting Exchange with the same man at the top whose strategy put the Exchange into a coma.

Let's be having it dave1357 - you have had plenty of time to think Laugh
Report dave1357 September 17, 2015 10:50 AM BST
Sorry westender, I don't spend my life waiting for your posts

your still an idiot hth
Report Westender September 17, 2015 10:52 AM BST
Answer the question troll dave1357 Laugh
Report Westender September 17, 2015 10:55 AM BST
dave1357 - troll

You can smell them a mile off - drop cowardly one liners calling people idiots etc and cannot put forward any credible reasons for opposing a point of view.

Answer the question dave1357 Laugh
Report Westender September 17, 2015 10:56 AM BST
Get back to cleaning toilets dave1357 Laugh
Report Westender September 17, 2015 11:15 AM BST
dangleberry dave1357 could not hit water if he fell out a boat LaughLaugh
Report dave1357 September 17, 2015 12:03 PM BST
Westender • September 17, 2015 10:56 AM BST
The contents of this post have been hidden for this blocked user. [Manage blocked users]
Report Westender September 17, 2015 1:00 PM BST
dave1357 fully confirmed as a Troll

Can just see him bravely hiding away in bedroom listening to the Birdie Song LaughLaughLaugh
Report Templeton Peck September 17, 2015 9:29 PM BST
I haven't worked for a bookies before but how realistic is this?

PC abolished, exchange sees a significant increase of ITK punters, PP/Betfair Sportsbook start using/linking the bets/data from profitable exchange accounts to set their prices/exposures, this increases their profits and they can even sack a bunch of traders. XMXM increases profits from the exchange.  They introduce more techniques so they can replicate (and so replace) a number of profitable methods us customers have been using on the exchange.  Price Rush used by PP and Betfair Sportsbook to make their offerings more attractive. 

As the Premium Charge was introduced to improve the pricing mechanism, now they have sportsbooks maybe it's time for them to maximise the info the exchange contains, info only they can see.
Report spurs to buy big September 18, 2015 11:46 AM BST
IMHO Premium charge may be abolished but those who pay it will be blocked ..all api s will be in-house ..the new entity will harvest the mug money on the exchange by replicating the proven methods (and algos ) of the consistent exchange winners ...they surely have the data and technology.
I d also expect them to either obtain "real time" pictures or have "on track" trading team to do the "in running " hovering
Cant see exchange terminals in shops but surely there will be some bet in running offering possible via phone app

What ever happens ,,,there will be huge changes
Report Westender September 18, 2015 5:29 PM BST
Think you agree that the Betfair Exchange was effectively finished when the current CEO took over.

Betfair became a bookmaker run by bookmakers and this has now been taken a step further with Betfair taken over by Paddy Power with the same CEO in charge.

There is no Betting Exchange when winners are banned and losers lose to the host Bookmaker.

Paddy Power Senior Mgt, particularly the current Betfair CEO/Future PuddyFair CEO are only interested in having losers on the books.

Think we can all see this except dave1357

RIP Betfair
Report Westender September 18, 2015 5:33 PM BST
There was life before Betfair and people will carry on long after Betfair is gone.

Bookmakers take, take, take and give zero value to society in return.

The industry will continue to shrink as people have a plethora of other things to spend their money on.

Greed will destroy them all through time including Paddy Power.
Report artie September 19, 2015 5:57 PM BST
Westender has been watching too much Dads Army := "We're all doomed" !
Report Westender September 19, 2015 6:18 PM BST
Fartie LaughLaughLaughLaugh

The bookmaking industry is shrinking by the year.
Report artie September 19, 2015 6:37 PM BST
Aye.  "We're all doomed" !
Report spurs to buy big September 20, 2015 1:25 AM BST
yep they will certainly keep the exchange ..i imagine the P P influence will lead to a  site full of dodgy trap bets and sharp practice
...also could see some subtle changes to the site which will make easier for a user to make a rick which will be swiftly gobbled up by an "in house "bot
Report somemuppet September 21, 2015 5:06 PM BST
Id agree with WESTENDER when he says that bookmaking industry is shrinking. There is only addicts left betting in shops or on here trying to be bookies, then failing then coming back to try again and failing and then trying again. There is no edge on here and would love to know who uses betfair with big sums and pay such a high premium charge. I wish i could rewind to 2003 and never have gotten involved with the exchanges. I wish it was how it was years ago. Too many people doing their nuts on here and on other sites , sad when you think about it. Id miss it I suppose if it was gone but it probably would save people a lot of money. Better risking a fiver etc to make a 1000 than the other way around on here !
Report STEPTOES YARD September 21, 2015 7:44 PM BST
NEVER
Report ZEALOT September 21, 2015 8:26 PM BST
MUPPET

You say there is no edge on here - are you for real ?


Horses yo-yo in price throughout the day on here  , so are you trying to tell me there is no edge possible in getting a decent edge laying or backing ?
Report Coachbuster September 21, 2015 9:40 PM BST
yo-yo'ing isn't really an edge though is it ? 

there are few mathematical edges - why that has become the case i don't know  .
Report ZEALOT September 21, 2015 9:50 PM BST
well there has to be value somewhere along the price movement
Report Coachbuster September 21, 2015 10:04 PM BST
there has  zealot , but when i ever play on here these days it feels like there are only half a dozen players on the board ,and they all seem to know what they're doing  therefore cancelling each other out .

I don't know in which sport or market the edge exists .Who are the winners winning from ?  the losers looked like they fled weeks ago.

Maybe the sharks are losing one by one and can't let go  - it's a  puzzler .
Report somemuppet September 21, 2015 11:10 PM BST
Thats it in a nutshell Coachbuster
Report pxb September 22, 2015 1:40 AM BST
Sports betting is growing around 20% per year in Australia and the numbers are probably similar worldwide.

I'm a cricket trader, but no international cricket at the moment, so have been dabbling in AFL, soccer and rugby. The last 2 I know very little about, but still manage to make money. It's not that hard.

I've traded pretty much every sport there is at some time. I decided early on that with horse racing you are up against insiders and that's a losing proposition.
Report tyco161 September 23, 2015 1:58 AM BST
With you there pxb. I do quite allright out of tennis and rugby when the cricket is not on. That is my speciality. Plenty off liquidity still on here if you are patient enough.
Report pxb September 23, 2015 11:04 PM BST
Tyco, I used to trade pre-play tennis a lot, but the uncertain match start times became too much of a nuisance, and I only trade matches that are on Oz TV now. I'd say tennis (match odds) is the easiest sport to make money on after cricket, but cricket requires a lot of knowledge of the sport.

I decided trading rugby union match odds wasn't for me a few years ago, but enough liquidity in RWC secondary markets (handicaps) to make it worthwhile.

New Zealand short priced to win the RWC. Too short maybe?
Report tyco161 September 24, 2015 12:06 AM BST
Yep Nz far too short to win the RWC, especially over in the UK. That said the other contenders have not looked up to the mark either, with France, SA, England etc looking dire. Once its at the quarters stage though its anyones game. NZ do not do well in dour games which Rugby world cup games tend to be. Look at difference v France in 2011 WC from pool match to Final.
Cricket.... agree with you, you need a lot of knowledge, thankfully I know enough to get by :) Am travelling to Sri Lanka, Bangladesh next year so might be able to keep you guys informed on the weather... (after I have taken my position off course) :) Good luck.
Report pxb September 24, 2015 1:12 AM BST
Am travelling to Sri Lanka, Bangladesh next year so might be able to keep you guys informed on the weather...

Cool. I'm envious. Although, there's chance I may swing a trip to SL when/if my wife goes there on business.
Report cragihol September 25, 2015 7:26 AM BST
pxb agree totally still enough on here to make money i can also add basketball to the list but agree have never touched horseracing.  Only difference i find is there are not so many "mug" bets placed anymore have to be a bit wiser not giveaway money like there was years ago still get the odd one have to work harder for money these days but def still doable
Report Westender September 25, 2015 4:54 PM BST
Even if you do win modest sums consistently, you get clobbered with 22.5% to 62.5% Betfair Taxes deducted on a Wednesday by the Betfair Inland Revenue.

With the exception of the few large BOT players that make it pay, it is no longer worth the effort playing against a few greedy BOTs.
Report mouse muldoon September 25, 2015 7:42 PM BST
So shut up and build yourself a large ****ing bot then
Report Westender September 25, 2015 9:23 PM BST
The Exchange has been run down by Paddy Power Mgt for 3 years now and is likely to be closed within 2 years of the takeover so why waste the time?

The mouse must see the following future developments under the same management:

1. Paddy Power changing their default website page to the Betting Exchange.
2. Paddy Power advertising the existence of the Betfair Exchange to potential new customers.
3. Paddy Power showing the range of live streams found on bet365.
4. The Betfair Forum being opened up to Paddy Power customers.

This place is now officially a dead duck floating waiting to be plucked out of the water and disposed.

Go on mouse - what is the future of the Exchange under the current/future/same Paddy Power Mgt? LaughLaugh
Report mouse muldoon September 25, 2015 10:05 PM BST
No real future here , the future is purple.
Report Westender September 25, 2015 10:13 PM BST
I think so mouse or a new Exchange will take the baton.

Cannot see a future under Paddy Power Mgt given the recent track record over 3 years fully aimed to divert money away from the Exchange.
Report Westender September 26, 2015 12:57 PM BST
jamesdean works for paddypower
Report Ron Pillock September 26, 2015 1:48 PM BST
I trade horse racing markets pre off and since the old site was switched off the betting patterns have changed and I'm on my worse ever run.  If this continues then I'm out of the game and in a funny way I'll be glad.
Report YOMOMMA September 26, 2015 11:06 PM BST
The decline in betfair exchange just magnifies how utterly hopeless bet daq and ladcrooks are. The purple exchange is dead as ever. It was worth a look when they were 3% comm but at 5% they have taken a gigantic step backwards in attracting and retaining customers.
Report Templeton Peck September 27, 2015 8:51 PM BST
Ron Pillock, I trade football markets pre kick off and I'm also on my worst ever run these last few weeks.  Betting patterns have changed and I get the feeling Betfair (or someone somehow related to them) are responsible.  I'm the same, whilst I'm still making money overall, I've all of a sudden taken such a hit in profit that I might jack it in and will also be glad in a funny way.  The constant attacks on people like me are only going to get worse with XMXM across all sports and markets and whatever other profit grabbing schemes management/Paddy Power have in store.

In brief, Betfair are rapidly taking a much more proactive role in taking the profitable bets for themselves.
Report roache September 27, 2015 9:48 PM BST
I am a PC payer have been back for a month now with Betfair after a 6 month exile (long story) and I have always attempted to trade in running football markets after a goal is scored and what I have noticed since my return and with the old site now switched off is that following a goal the markets take an absolute age to re open then the countdown is normally now 12 seconds for most games and the markets always seem almost perfectly aligned in the vast majority of games before I can even get my offer in,i believe this new site with the increased time between a goal being scored and customers being able to get there offer on to the market is deliberate by betfair and they are becoming more and more active in seeding the markets and hoovering up any obvious errors in customers setting odds,also when the market re opens following a goal there is instantly money/odds available yet customers are awaiting another 12 seconds for any trades,i have come to the conclusion that I am now wasting my time trying to beat betfair trading in there own exchange.
Report Darlo Bantam September 27, 2015 9:54 PM BST
Intriguing. I use API software and don't notice that much of a delay for the market reopening, yet have wondered why there's no money in the market for what seems like ages though.
Report Westender September 27, 2015 10:43 PM BST
roache is correct

You can refresh rapidly but I guarantee that the layers of impossible scores get their bets on in 3-4 secs and not the 8-12 other customers wait.

I also think this is Betfair getting in first with laying impossible scores and hoovering up the losing keep bets.

There is little incentive to continue as Betfair take the whole cake now and only leave a few crumbs for the sharks to fight over.

jamesdean and Darlo Bantam think otherwise but I don't think it is worth people continuing on here if they cannot at least earn the minimum wage or better per hour spent on Betfair.
Report spurs to buy big September 27, 2015 11:24 PM BST
it appears da parasites finding more difficult than ever as BF hijacks their M.O.....t would bring a tear to a glass eye
Report Coachbuster September 27, 2015 11:30 PM BST
Laying impossible scores,bettors errors ?
Yeah-  they're not exactly out of Einsteins top 20 betting strategies either .

I am more concerned with the pricing of scores at various times during the games - they seem aligned too 

They have hired someone with knowledge .
Report Rob_The_Bantam September 28, 2015 12:06 AM BST
Isn't it just XMXM deriving prices from other, more liquid markets, Coach?
Report Templeton Peck September 28, 2015 10:58 AM BST
It's a pity they don't highlight which markets have XMXM switched on.  A pain in the backside trying to work out what is Betfair money and which is not as the new site shows XM(XM) money on the chart whereas the old site didn't.
Report roache September 28, 2015 7:49 PM BST
Since my return to Betfair during the last month it is also obvious that the new site is much poorer to use for customers with betfair building in more cunning systems on the new site linked in with the sportsbook and cross matching and all with the aim of maximising profits,how on earth are we now on 12 seconds countdown when the football markets re open after a goal when years ago it was always 5 seconds yet we are now on a supposed better website,there are also times after a goal when I have been waiting up to a minute for the market to re open and it was not because of a near miss/red card etc it was probably so that betfair can seed the market at the correct odds and this is how they are using this extra time after a goal is scored,i am amazed now how perfectly priced the market is following a goal in most games.
Report rink rat September 28, 2015 8:19 PM BST
Betfair is losing its best employees , the market makers who paid a commision on their winnings to the host. Now it appears all profit takers are hampered and discouraged. The ramifications are more employees needed to hire for inspection and seeding of their own markets.
Report Coachbuster September 28, 2015 8:20 PM BST
No Rob - these prices have changed to reflect the true odds , as if someone has discovered they were wrong all along (which they generally were Wink )
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