General Betting
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Sorry if this has already been done to death but I've not seen a similar thread on here before so I'll chance it with you guys:
I thought I'd start a thread which hopefully will run for a while, whereby a confident selection or two on any event (regardless of the price) can be included in an on-going accumulator for a few of us to benefit from.
I was thinking of using a starting pot of say £100 and just backing supposed good-things until the roll-up reaches a grand and then to withdraw and start all over again with the initial stake - whatever your outlay, I'd suggest looking for a 9/1 accumulator (maybe even £50 to get £500 for the more ball-less of us) to make it worthwhile and cover the costs of the inevitable, odd stinking result.
It would require a lot of discipline that I suspect most on here mightn't have (myself included) so maybe opening a separate B/F account would be wise, to separate the daily guff we spunk our load on, from what would seem in principle to be a half-decent system.
It's probably been suggested before (though I haven't seen it on here) whereby forumites could nominate their bankers whatever the sport/event and price that they can't see losing - I don't follow many sports so I'd need some assistance in finding such propositions.
I know very little about cricket, tennis, rugby, golf, athletics etc. but I'd expect there'd be 'bankers' available in certain markets on those sports nearly every day for us to consider.
Even some of the obscure stuff like basketball would be appealing if there were some clear stats to back up the reasoning.
I'd be looking at prices that are gonna be odds-on and anything down to about 1/10 would be of interest as three of those virtually make a 1/3 shot.
For those not so conversant with the arithmetic, 1/2 & 1/3 in a double is an even money shot...the numbers multiply out surprisingly well - three 1/6 pokes to kick of a ton accumulator would get the ball rolling with £161.57 to play with on the next selection and I woudn't think that'd be TOO difficult to find with endless betting opportunities every day.
All that's required to make a few quid out of this is the discipline to stick to the system and to be selective in not just backing something BECAUSE it's long odds-on...and of course the advice of the more knowledgeable factions of the forum.
I'd prefer to avoid the Premiership as anything can happen in that - I wouldn't want £900+ rolling onto my last selection only for a rotten upset like Chelsea failing to win at home to the bottom club - that said, I suppose I'd take that chance if the pot was just starting to gather pace and I suppose 0.5+ in the goals market would be a fair idea.
Also, I have little faith in horse-racing nowadays as I very rarely see something I fully EXPECT to win so that's another medium I'd want to avoid, though I would be interested in the place-only market.
Every now & again I can find what I regard as a certainty...in the darts tournament a fortnight ago, Gary Anderson was a 1/3 shot to hit more 180s than Steve Beaton in a best of 19 match which would've been astonishing if it didn't oblige as Gary's one of the best ever max-hitters and Beaton rarely hits any - it was comfortable viewing as there was never any danger from the first leg.
A similar match a few days after that provided another banker 1/5 shot - I don't lay out big money but those two selections were in EVERY combination bet I backed on those particular days and I can't help but feel these 'certs' are going to waste when they're on different days.
I've got SOME discipline so I'll have the patience to hold on for the next sure-fire selection, waiting to pounce like a praying mantis, instead of just backing something for the sake of it.
I think this thread could have a lot of potential for many of us and although inevitably there will be some costly failures, with a 'snakes & ladders' approach like this, it should be remembered that the only real liability will be the initial outlay.
Has anyone tried something similar before and if so, is there a downside I'm unaware of besides Betfair's small cut?
I was even thinking of using the bookies as on the odd occasion they can offer slightly better odds (especially with long odds-on shots) but they'll have your card marked and ban you in no time (online) so maybe using the shops is an option - do they turn down bets like £500 on a 1/7 shot?
Who's gonna get the ball rolling with some objective input and a first selection?
I thought I'd start a thread which hopefully will run for a while, whereby a confident selection or two on any event (regardless of the price) can be included in an on-going accumulator for a few of us to benefit from.
I was thinking of using a starting pot of say £100 and just backing supposed good-things until the roll-up reaches a grand and then to withdraw and start all over again with the initial stake - whatever your outlay, I'd suggest looking for a 9/1 accumulator (maybe even £50 to get £500 for the more ball-less of us) to make it worthwhile and cover the costs of the inevitable, odd stinking result.
It would require a lot of discipline that I suspect most on here mightn't have (myself included) so maybe opening a separate B/F account would be wise, to separate the daily guff we spunk our load on, from what would seem in principle to be a half-decent system.
It's probably been suggested before (though I haven't seen it on here) whereby forumites could nominate their bankers whatever the sport/event and price that they can't see losing - I don't follow many sports so I'd need some assistance in finding such propositions.
I know very little about cricket, tennis, rugby, golf, athletics etc. but I'd expect there'd be 'bankers' available in certain markets on those sports nearly every day for us to consider.
Even some of the obscure stuff like basketball would be appealing if there were some clear stats to back up the reasoning.
I'd be looking at prices that are gonna be odds-on and anything down to about 1/10 would be of interest as three of those virtually make a 1/3 shot.
For those not so conversant with the arithmetic, 1/2 & 1/3 in a double is an even money shot...the numbers multiply out surprisingly well - three 1/6 pokes to kick of a ton accumulator would get the ball rolling with £161.57 to play with on the next selection and I woudn't think that'd be TOO difficult to find with endless betting opportunities every day.
All that's required to make a few quid out of this is the discipline to stick to the system and to be selective in not just backing something BECAUSE it's long odds-on...and of course the advice of the more knowledgeable factions of the forum.
I'd prefer to avoid the Premiership as anything can happen in that - I wouldn't want £900+ rolling onto my last selection only for a rotten upset like Chelsea failing to win at home to the bottom club - that said, I suppose I'd take that chance if the pot was just starting to gather pace and I suppose 0.5+ in the goals market would be a fair idea.
Also, I have little faith in horse-racing nowadays as I very rarely see something I fully EXPECT to win so that's another medium I'd want to avoid, though I would be interested in the place-only market.
Every now & again I can find what I regard as a certainty...in the darts tournament a fortnight ago, Gary Anderson was a 1/3 shot to hit more 180s than Steve Beaton in a best of 19 match which would've been astonishing if it didn't oblige as Gary's one of the best ever max-hitters and Beaton rarely hits any - it was comfortable viewing as there was never any danger from the first leg.
A similar match a few days after that provided another banker 1/5 shot - I don't lay out big money but those two selections were in EVERY combination bet I backed on those particular days and I can't help but feel these 'certs' are going to waste when they're on different days.
I've got SOME discipline so I'll have the patience to hold on for the next sure-fire selection, waiting to pounce like a praying mantis, instead of just backing something for the sake of it.
I think this thread could have a lot of potential for many of us and although inevitably there will be some costly failures, with a 'snakes & ladders' approach like this, it should be remembered that the only real liability will be the initial outlay.
Has anyone tried something similar before and if so, is there a downside I'm unaware of besides Betfair's small cut?
I was even thinking of using the bookies as on the odd occasion they can offer slightly better odds (especially with long odds-on shots) but they'll have your card marked and ban you in no time (online) so maybe using the shops is an option - do they turn down bets like £500 on a 1/7 shot?
Who's gonna get the ball rolling with some objective input and a first selection?
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Hi interesting idea but very dangerous. I think if you decide to go with this you should have a % of stake at certain increments. Example would be withdraw £33.00 once bank gets to £330 £600 and £850. Can be done with discipline but not as easy as it sounds.
I do similar during a football weekend £20 to a £100 doubling up so called bankers and the odd treble across all european leagues but does require discipline. Would not discount horse racing esspecially the place market. Good luck will chip in if this gets off the ground. |
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Thanks mate...hopefully it'll get approval on here and a decent kick-start as I think it has a lot of potential, though as you say, it's not gonna be as easy as it sounds.
Are there any similar threads you can point me towards on here? PS - as for your suggestion about the incremental cuts...that's probably not something I'd do because a £50 stake is not gonna kill me to lose (not that I can afford to) but dropping out near the £500 finishing line really would hurt - I suppose it's all about reaching one's mark (what you can afford to lose compared to the inversely proportional grief of a final leg loser) and I'd say the 9/1 plan would be 'safe ground' for most people's initial stake. |
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not aware of any threads but I followed a system/method and adapted it to suit myself, based on 1.10 betting to 70k which is nearly impossible imo i will see if i can locate the link.
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http://www.nextbet.co.uk/90bets-challenge/
Here is a link to something similar. What I did and do is start with a stake of £20,.00 (bet number 6 in table and try to get to £100, bet number 26 but instead of doing singles would do short priced double and trebles. then you can get there in a few bets then restart back to £20 and repeat, sounds so easy but it is difficult discipline needed. The method/strategy I use is simple and good fun for weekend sports saturday and sunday had many a weekend getting 2/3 runs up grabbing a couple of hundred over two days. http://www.freesupertips.co.uk/10-to-1000-challenge-explained/ another link along the same lines. One market worth looking at is over 0.5 goals in running if the price hits 1.10 plus in play. |
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One way of getting your 1.10 target price would be to look for opportunities
to dutch multiple selections to 'manufacture' an overall price of around 1.10 For example, the first UK Horse Race of the day at 14:00 Nottingham, had the following available back prices at 11:40hrs :- Horse No. 1 2.40 " " 6 5.60 " " 8 7.00 " " 2 7.60 " " 5 11.00 " " 9 40.00 " " 3 55.00 " " 7 100.00 " " 4 non-runner So the Market suggests only 5 horses are likely to win, with 3 big-priced outsiders. Dutching the first 5 in the market gives a return of about £1.77 to a £50 stake,after 5% commission - a ROI of about 3.5% There is a Reverse Forecast market available on this race, & dutching the first 5 horses in the market, at the back prices available at 11:40hrs, would give a return of approx. £6.30, after 5% commission, which equates to a ROI of 12.6% I.e. Dutch back the following Reverse Forecast combos :- 1/2 1/5 1/6 1/8 2/5 2/6 2/8 5/6 5/8 6/8 The new Exchange+ site has attracted a lot of criticism, but the Dutching stake tool is one very obvious advancement over the 'old' site, and makes this sort of betting much easier. This is NOT a specific bet recommendation, merely an example of how you could 'create' an overall event price of 1.126, which isn't immediately obvious when looking at the market. I wish you luck with your venture, and you're going to need plenty of luck, because £50 to £500 going 'all in' at odds of 1.10 is quite a task. |
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Knuckles - thanks for those links mate.
Although I've not seen anything like what I'm proposing before (I'm sure similar systems have been suggested by others) I think the tweaking of my strategy is much better for several reasons: With a separate account (in someone else's hands, for those of us less disciplined) it eliminates temptation to 'contaminate' a system with other more speculative bets. In reality it'll only be a £50 liability, though if things go tits-up it'll feel like a lot more. Considered selections (not confined to football) & frequency to suit - I might be betting on 4 propositions in one day and then nothing for another 4 days but overall, it's the confident selections that'll matter and not just backing something BECAUSE it's 1/8. Hopefully I'll learn from a bit of bad luck I had recently when I backed a football match to have ONE goal in it after about 18 minutes as a 1/7 booster in an accumulator, and having got a 10/1 winner at Ascot, there were 35 minutes left for it to happen (after Postponed got home in the King George) and unsurprisingly, it ended up goal-less - that was painful  Mice - thanks for that squire...that's very helpful. It's something I'd overlooked which is the sort of advice I was looking for when I started the thread. This site is too confusing for me to use with those bets but I like the idea and I might make an effort to familiarise myself with such markets. |
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Mice - I'm not necessarily looking for 1/10 shots but that price is suggested as a ceiling.
PS - did you catch the dividend of that forecast on Betfair? |
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Sorry for the late reply NG - I didn't see what price the winning RFC was trading at near the off-time.
Note that the Market had firmed up considerably by the off-time, and the prices had altered quite considerably from those available at 11:40. However, when you are using the Dutched Staking method, the winning price is irrelevant, since your net profit will be the same, regardless of which of your selections is successful. All I can tell you with certainty, is that if you had placed a total Dutched stake of £50 on RFCs 1/2 1/5 1/6 1/8 2/5 2/6 2/8 5/6 5/8 6/8 at 11:40 this morning, then your return would have been £56.30, give or take a penny, since the dutching tool has to round up or down where necessary. I repeat - when dutching, your return would be the same regardless of which one of those RFC combinations was successful. I don't actually use Betfair much at all these days, the bulk of my betting is on the Purple site, since I bet pre-race, usually in the last ten minutes before the race start-time, when there is maximum liquidity. I have been trialling the S'Meerkats site for a while, and whilst I have had problems getting my bets matched on there, it is a useful alternative market with just 2% commission. My Betfair activity these days is generally limited to bets like I have outlined above, which I cannot place on the other 2 Exchanges, since they don't carry FC or RFC markets. Without the free dutching tool on the 'new' site I wouldn't be placing these types of bets on Betfair either! This is what a real life settled bet looks like :- Horse Racing > Newm (RFC) 31st Jul : Reverse FC Showing 1 - 3 of 3 Selections Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£) 1 - 4 / 4 - 1 9.40 11.36 Back 31-Jul-15 18:00 -11.36 1 - 9 / 9 - 1 8.00 14.12 Back 31-Jul-15 18:00 98.84 4 - 9 / 9 - 4 7.20 14.52 Back 31-Jul-15 18:00 -14.52 *Average odds: On Off Back subtotal: 72.96 Lay subtotal: 0.00 Market subtotal: 72.96 Commission @ 4.8%: 3.50 Net Market Total: 69.46 Profit and Loss is shown net of commission. All times are UKT ? unless otherwise stated. Note that I am looking for a much bigger return from these actual bets than the one suggested earlier, but, of course, bigger returns carry a greater risk. The above bet represents backing a near 7/4 shot in traditional betting odds. |
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"All I can tell you with certainty, is that if you had placed a total Dutched stake of £50 on RFCs
1/2 1/5 1/6 1/8 2/5 2/6 2/8 5/6 5/8 6/8 at 11:40 this morning, then your return would have been £56.30" I WILL have to familiarise myself with that dutching option as that's a fair return for a £50 outlay - that was approximately a 1/8 winner for what looked a certainty. Many thanks again for the advice. |
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Dutching on Gruss is a breeze - not too expensive for a year's subscription. I use it every day. Best thing since sliced .........
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