General Betting
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I know this is the old classic and its probably a hard one to win on. Trying to green out after the fav scores. It works most of the time but in the long term you might do well to break even. I just wonder has anyone tried laying the draw after a goal has been scored by the fancied team and then leaving it ride.
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you would be better off, at the start of the season, picking 1 team, from any league, and backing them to draw every match...
if you say, start with £1, and use the martingale system, eventually they will draw, and you go back to your starting stake... |
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Arsenal went 15 games this season without a draw. How's your £1 Marty looking going into game 16?
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if a game is strong favourite for under 2.5 goals and a goal is scored in the first 10 minutes BACK unders straight away
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why?
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The Martingale system
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@thevis,
I actually meant a typical middle of the league type team...somebody like a Huddersfield/Cardiff...not a team who is gonna be predominately dominant in most of their games...  |
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Panther, a good idea, only trouble
with it is that it doesn't work. |
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of course it does ken...
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Of course it works Ken. You just have to pick the right team... :)
Actually, from the start of the season as Panty Boy suggested, Arsenal drew three of their first four matches, so this proves the system works! |
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Somemuppet
I suspect not many people will know the answer to this because keeping the odds when this occurs is difficult to obtain, unless you pay for it. The number of games (sample size) you would have to obtain data from, to make any sort of meaningful statistical analysis, is not going to be worth the trouble. |
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True Charlie, interesting though.
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It is an interesting idea but difficult to obtain data for.
Similarly, laying the team that has scored the first goal (you need to record the odds when this happens) with the intention of laying off if the other team scores the next goal (and you need to know the odds when this occurs). Who keeps the odds when this happens? If you can get the data, as people out there surely do, then there is a multitude of possibilities. But you need the data and you can't do this manually. |
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you are here a long time Charlie, do you take it seriously or for a bit of fun ?
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When I started I took it seriously and did well.
After two to four years or so commitments meant I couldn't put enough time into it )and winnings were reducing (there's maybe a lot more to it than this though - which I could elaborate on if you wish). After that I have mainly bet for fun, or maybe misery.  I actually find it difficult, with a few exceptions, to watch sport without having a bet on no matter how small.I intend to bet seriously next football season. There's a lot I can add. |
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Any tips on what markets to play with ? Im on here despite my join date since 2003. Ive played football markets mostly and its safe to say i got it very wrong. Discipline and bordeom being a big part. I got into the correct score markets a few years ago and it breaks my heart. I remember going back a good few years that I actually made a nice few quid on the match odds market. I might go back to it for next season. Ive learned a few lessons in last few seasons and am n a better course. This seasons lesson was that low gains add up nicely more so than fast gains !!
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Which markets? Can't give any sensible advice but can state the bleedin' obvious: bet on those you win on.
You do keep records I hope.For years the only footy market I bet on was match odds. And, sorry to report, I didn't keep very good records of what I won on and what I lost on. For the last two years or so I started keeping records but couldn't discern any area where I was particularly good or bad. And during this period profit was non-existent, couldn't beat the commission. I also used to have my own method for rating games. Maybe 4-5 months ago I decided that there were much better predictive models out there than mine and I was going nowhere. So gave up match odds betting. Which left me with no idea what to bet on. I've now found new markets and will explain if you want (but maybe it's getting too boring ). |
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No I could listen to you all day, i tried to keep records but was placing so many bets I gave up. I do know that betting on a Saturday is detrimental to bank. Too many games on and picking the wrong games is a disaster. My best day is Monday followed by Sunday, Saturday and Thursdays very poor. One thing for sure is there isnt any easy formula on Betfair, the markets are very efficient. Planning , discipline and good bank management the key. Im not to bad on planning and assessing games but bank management and discipline my frailties.
I think theres money to be in goalscorer markets , prices can be very short and well worth laying.. |
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The money is made on 'wrong prices' after the first
goal is scored, especially when its the 'wrong one' |
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Not sure what Ken means, probably backing the original favourite when the other team scores first.
Interesting what you say about too many bets to record and Saturdays being bad. I'm convinced that the most important market is Unders/Overs. If you can crack this then it opens up a lot of possibilities. As two, rather obvious examples, if you consider a game to be Unders then you can bet with some confidence on Odd/Even market and correct score market. More to follow if you want but may have to be PM. |
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Charlie, when you have, say an 1/1 chance pre kickoff,
the betting is carved in stone on the subsidiary markets the total goals, half time, first goal, unders/overs etc, etc but the market jumps about after a goal, punters closing positions based on what has happened up to that, it becomes unpredictable while especially on the 0-1, too many situations arrive, too many over reactions to try and give examples on here. Not easy to get things right... |
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Ken, I don't bet in-running.
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Pre kick-off the odds alone do not determine subsidiary markets.
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I find that, in the main, they do.
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They do go a long way to determining subsidiaries but they really aren't the only factors taken into consideration. Hence my comment to somemuppet - find out what really makes Unders unders and Overs overs.
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Overs/Unders prices are, in my experience,
influenced by total goal expectancy and very difficult to beat. |
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Panther 65
Panther65 you would be better off, at the start of the season, picking 1 team, from any league, and backing them to draw every match... if you say, start with £1, and use the martingale system, eventually they will draw, and you go back to your starting stake... You might want to be careful who you pick http://www.xscores.com/soccer/tables/spain/primera_division/2008-2009/l/4/0/ Gijon drew for the first and only time in the 34th game of the season. I think it might have been a problem getting your 8.5bn stake matched. |