where are the mug punters thesedays

Where do the new exchange punters come from?  18 year old computer programmers are about it.  Yer old school bettor has tried and retired hurt so all thats left is whats been said, bots and sharks in a death spiral.

personally I'm not anti bots, I think for the average punter they create on a low level profitable spots I have £25-£50 staking systems that are affected by bots in no way whatsoever

I'm a little dubious as to whether bf use their own personal sort of high frequency trading bot maybe, I think they might have one

I had a look at winning horses between 2008 and 2014 in GB and IRE, and compared the ISP against the last price available on betfair before the off, this is what I got

race_year	BFSP_min_winning_odds	BFSP_max_winning_odds	BFSP_mean_winning_odds	ISP_min_winning_odds	ISP_max_winning_odds	ISP_mean_winning_odds
2008	1.09	1000.00	10.91	1.00	151.00	7.64
2009	1.01	475.00	10.40	1.02	101.00	7.48
2010	1.01	1000.00	10.31	1.07	201.00	7.36
2011	1.01	447.00	9.68	1.05	101.00	7.21
2012	1.01	804.00	9.80	1.04	201.00	7.12
2013	1.01	548.74	9.32	1.02	101.00	6.88
2014	1.01	816.67	9.01	1.01	101.00	6.76

I guess the mean average would indicate profit margins have gone down for backers?

Feb 19, 2015 -- 1:47PM, pawras wrote:

I had a look at winning horses between 2008 and 2014 in GB and IRE, and compared the ISP against the last price available on betfair before the off, this is what I got


race_year
BFSP_min_winning_odds
BFSP_max_winning_odds
BFSP_mean_winning_odds
ISP_min_winning_odds
ISP_max_winning_odds
ISP_mean_winning_odds


2008
1.09
1000.00
10.91
1.00
151.00
7.64


2009
1.01
475.00
10.40
1.02
101.00
7.48


2010
1.01
1000.00
10.31
1.07
201.00
7.36


2011
1.01
447.00
9.68
1.05
101.00
7.21


2012
1.01
804.00
9.80
1.04
201.00
7.12


2013
1.01
548.74
9.32
1.02
101.00
6.88


2014
1.01
816.67
9.01
1.01
101.00
6.76

I guess the mean average would indicate profit margins have gone down for backers?

You need to factor in the fact that the average field size has been dropping year on year...

http://www.britishhorseracing.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2015-Fixture-List-Industry-Consultation.pdf (see page 14).

The ratio of BFSP_mean_winning_odds/BFSP_mean_odds (or BFSP_mean_winning_odds/Mean_field_size) is what you need to look at.

Some of my systems (automated) work but once I filter out down to what seems to be the key criteria, the volume shrinks to just a few bets per day often in fairly thin markets.  This is sort of worth doing but then it takes months to get the history to really know if there is a genuine edge or to spot shifts in the market.  Then if you increase the bet size to exploit your little niche you tend to get spotted and more likely to have your good bets jumped in front of and not taken and your poorer ones snapped up.  So all the work to spot the niche seems a little pointless in terms of long term profit.  The thick markets are much more efficient and harder to gain an edge.  UK racing virtually always performs worst for any of my systems.  Good on those who are cleaning up on here but I think you are becoming a rarer and rarer species.

Back to casual bettors.  The key thing is that most on BF think like me - they actually genuinely want to make money (not just have a flutter) and if you don't are highly likely to leave or spend time elsewhere doing other stuff.  Made more money from the stock market by far in recent years - better use of my time.

The recreational bettor would feel more comfortable battling the bookies where deep down they expect to lose and can justify in their minds that it is not surprising when they are against the might of a serious bookmaker.  On betfair, it is more complex but also in their gut they would not like the concept that some other guy sitting in front of a computer in their underpants has beaten them - the concept of a loss is more personal.

I used to watch a guy I worked with put on some bets in his lunch hour.  Look at the form for 15 minutes, place a few bets and that was it.  From our conversations I could tell he did not expect to win overall but loved the occasional good day.  BF would have been more of a hassle and he would have felt that he should be doing a heap of stuff to get an edge to beat the other guys. I imagined him on BF and thought it would upset his equilibrium and possibly take the fun out of it.  So the exchange is a shark pool with not many little fish wanting to venture in.  Used to be much easier.

"Yer old school bettor has tried and retired hurt so all thats left is whats been said, bots and sharks in a death spiral"

Rarely a truer word spoken on this forum. Impossible to make the kind of money these days that you could make 5-10 years ago regardless of how good you are because the markets are vastly more accurate. Betfair has consigned the exchange to a slow, painful death by the introduction of the sportsbook and effectively shepherding the new customers on there to bet with them direct.
I have withdrawn over 95 percent of my balance in the last year and I think the 2015 Flat season might be my last year of serious punting on here.

Juk made a very valid point here I go again for GB and IRE racing 2008-2014

race_year	BFSP_minwinodds	BFSP_maxwinodds	BFSP_meanwinodds	ISP_minwinodds	ISP_maxwinodds	ISP_meanwinodds	mean_no_of_runners	AVGBFSPdivRUNNERS	AVGISPPdivRUNNERS
2008	1.09	1000.00	10.91	1.00	151.00	7.64	11.05	0.987	0.691
2009	1.01	475.00	10.40	1.02	101.00	7.48	10.68	0.974	0.700
2010	1.01	1000.00	10.31	1.07	201.00	7.36	10.26	1.005	0.718
2011	1.01	447.00	9.68	1.05	101.00	7.21	9.95	0.972	0.724
2012	1.01	804.00	9.80	1.04	201.00	7.12	9.82	0.998	0.725
2013	1.01	548.74	9.32	1.02	101.00	6.88	9.54	0.977	0.721
2014	1.01	816.67	9.01	1.01	101.00	6.76	9.19	0.980	0.736

I'm def pretty old school in my approach compared to some of you guys but I 'seem' to be doing ok, but then I don't do huge volumes or have huge stakes.

Eg last year I backed 315 horses at evens or less and made 7% roi, so there must be 'value'/and edge in the picks I make at those sort of odds. Many of those bets weren't on betfair because I could get better odds and bog elsewhere.

oh yeah strike rate was 67.5%

That's really good but what the ROI be if you had to place them all on betfair and were playing at volumes that meant you effectively had to take SP?

where as above evens my strike rate is less than half but my roi is double so I'm obv getting better value on the bigger prices but I hate losing runs so I do the shorties as well as they make a profit

I know part of my edge is down to beating isp

I think I'd have to be putting on pretty big sums to be stuck with isp or at least bsp because I can still get bog in lots places, although centrebet closed my account and betvictor took bog off me

Take them for as much as you can while you can. Maybe if you are spreading your bets out you can stay under the rader for a while!

All that trading stuff seems like a lot of work for a couple of % , I dunno how anyonecan ar&ed with that unless they're using a bot cos the effort/gain ratio just wouldn't be worth it to me otherwise.

I would find it very tedious, it is not for me either.

I dunno how anyonecan ar&ed with that unless they're using a bot cos the effort/gain ratio just wouldn't be worth it to me otherwise.

I'd also find it dull, but I can understand the appeal over a commute to do a job that you don't like every day.

Personally I think something like this happened, the old boys found it super easy to make money off a wave of less knowledgeable people chasing an easy buck in the early days thought it would last forever and are now bitter the crowd have sharpened and their dreams of milking an infinite cash cow have vanished from in front of their face

Unwilling to invest time and effort altering their systems they simply wish that the easy money would come back

Betfair has undoubtedly gotten sharper but unless premium is killing you on here you're doing it all wrong

Forgive my stupidity but it’s not my thing and I’m curious, as the trades are often worth no more than a couple of % (e.g. it seems backing at 6.0 then laying at 5.5 only gives a 1.54% roi before commission) , are they trading many horses per race and/or the same horse many times? Then you have the instances where the price doesn’t go the direction you thought it would.

Many styles of trading - check out youtube. It can be  follow big trends, predict big trends, grab small bites, frenetically back and lay, combine form knowledge to take a position with trading etc.

The best thing about it is that you have a rough idea if you have some hope of making money from your approach within a day or two (if you avoid mistakes and chasing which most people do not).  Whereas with straight betting it can be months before you discover (or think you discover) that the gains you were making were just random patterns in the win / loss ratios.  Trading used to be more fun, even exciting, as you could trade with more confidence in the signals.  In the very early days it was almost as simple as putting a bet in front of any big amount and you'd win.
These days there is so much faking, spoof bets and traps set for the unwary that things often seem to do the opposite of logic.  But if you fade the fakers you can end up catching really bad moves.  Snakes and ladders is the simple analogy. You can still make money but for the average trader it can be like the worst paying, most frustrating job you will ever do.
There are still plenty of people doing okay and some very well trading though. But a guy I know who lived off it for 5 years very well now has a 9 to 5 job

I guess the issue is how much time do you put into an opportunity that seems to be trending towards smaller and smaller ROI.  Enjoy your life or put time into it into something else.  Niche opportunities are often where the money is made.  These are small and shrinking in BF - not enough volume to exploit without shifting the market and ruining the edge.   In the stock market, in contrast, for example, niche opportunities have more than enough volume for any recreational punter to find an edge(s)with solid volume and never be noticed or targeted.  On BF I've had plenty of things work till I scaled up a bit and then either got hit or jumped in front of.
BF had a buzz to it in the early days - bees to a honey pot. Now recreational punters and "sharp minds" can sense that the hive is struggling and full of wasps.

The Exchange is now basically bot vs bot vs serious traders

I doubt many people are making a lot of money off the exchange nowadays because if they are, theyre making it off other traders and bot users (not off the recreational punter like they all used too).

Therefore, for every bot/trader winner, there's now a bot/trader loser. And if youre doing it for a living, and sometimes losing now, youre going to give up, and liquidity is going to just get worse and worse.

It really doesnt look good for the exchange, does it?

The truth of the matter is there is virtually no volume in any of the markets until just before the off when they tend to be very accurate. So unless you bet in sufficiently small stakes, you can effectively only bet at or around the betfair SP. The larger your bets are the more you are actually driving your own prices down (or up if you are laying). It will reach (for most people) a stage where it is not worth doing it any more unless the exchange is freshened up with new custom (eg from overseas). The pushing of new customers on to the Sportsbook means that the only ones who make it on to the exchange are the ones that win/beat the prices and are effectively not allowed to bet on the Sportsbook. Therefore they are likely to be fairly clued up. Some will be able to cope on the exchange and some will not but effectively only winning customers (of whatever method) are left betting against each other on the exchange.
Hence my decision to withdraw the vast majority of my profits and bet in smaller stakes.

Soup is correct.
Eventually there will just be a few big players left betting against each other. They can then either fight it out to the death, or take their money and walk. It really depends what type of characters they are but the exchange is on the way out.

Not having a go, but I do sometimes wish people on here would refrain from the doom and gloom approach.

It's similar to when the UK economy was doing worst, and pundits kept reminding everyone. Psychology is a big issue when looking the health of markets, and people reading on here will only see negatives much of the time.

I agree that PC at heavier ends may well have stopped successful players of the past, but new players entering have a decent chance on BF (until they become very successful).

No reason for any new (non-PC players) to not join the game, as it's still beatable.

Some say doom and gloom, others say realism!
Too some degree you are right to say there is no reason for any new players not to join the game, but the fact is they don't come to the exchange now, they go to the sportsbook in the main.
I don't think my view of the markets is to do with psychology, they have been in gradaul decline since about 2008.

Hi stu,

The biggest doom and gloom isn't coming from us, its coming from Betfair itself. They don't even advertise the exchange anymore, do they?

When the owners dont push it, but push another product heavily (the Sportsbook) , then the Company itself is the biggest doom and gloom merchant for the exchange, surely?

Whilst this debate was ongoing yesterday evening, I saw two betfair adverts on TV. Both featured the Sportsbook layout for betting on mobile phones and didn't mention the exchange in any way. This typifies their current approach. I am not convinced they have got it right to be honest though only time will tell.

Not saying everything is perfect, of course, and I agree about the current pushing of the sportsbook. I still think some major markets are quite healthy on here however, despite the gloom about sportsbook-bias presented on here.

I just think that this forum in particular is guilty of constantly presenting a bad picture for anyone reading about the exchange. If I was new to the place and read this forum I'd do a swift about turn and look elsewhere. Can't exactly help the issue.

But how much option do they have, BB?  How many domestic gamblers do you reckon have never heard of the betting exchanges?  The only way they are going to increase the exchange client base significantly is to expand into new markets, but that is proving increasingly difficult, and even some of those in which they already operate(d) have seen regulation changes which have prompted them to withdraw completely. 

I do still think there is scope for the Sportsbook (they have, IMHO, at least targeted the right group of people) to feed significantly more money through to the exchange, but my concern is that the evolutionary process is taking far too long for most markets, and once they're dead, it's very difficult to reinvigorate them, and you run the risk of losing more and more client accounts along the way, thus exacerbating the situation even further....

International (as suggested above) seems the obvious exchange expansion plan. If you fed in some of that asian based money for example, the markets could fill up. US of course another issue in that aspect, if they stopped being an idiotically nanny nation in terms of gambling.

I am yet to be convinced that the sportsbook really offers punters (even the ones who can get a bet on it) anything that is not already offered by umpteen traditional bookmakers and am therefore struggling to see why it will really take off in an already saturated market. The exchange effectively has a monopoly, it offers something different and I think in the long term they would be better off protecting it.

I think Price Rush could be seen as a big draw to your average betting shop punter, and the figures BFSB posted recently suggest they're doing quite well with market share and growth.

There are a hell of a lot more recreational punters out there than pro ones, and Betfair as a brand name is well know (even if it was primarily because of the exchange) so attracting a good share of recreational punters to a sportsbook makes good market sense. They even make use of an exchange type feature to attract them to the sportsbook - Cash Out.

I think the sportsbook makes far more money for betfair than the exchange. In fact I'm sure it does, Hence why they push it.

how much do the course and small independent bookies push money onto the exchange I wonder?

Sure there's some bookie money, for hedging purposes. Prob a substantial amount in fact.

Along with a few posters on here who have also been here more or less from the start of BF,the future for the BF exchange model was accurately predicted in the early years.

1. Unlike shares, property markets, this model is a negative sum game (because of commission and PC) whether you are a backer, layer, trader.There is no inherent investment growth which can overcome poor play, bad luck.

2. Consequently, it is axiomatic that players/liquidity will diminish over time unless losing players continue to introduce new funds and/or new players/funds are introduced.  Without these new funds, the market must eventually burn out.Unfortunately,there appears to be limit to the number of players who prefer the exchange concept and BF have gone from being the new kid on the block with the promise of becoming the major player, to a mature entrant, in less than 15 years.Losing players will eventually cease to play.

3.As in a game of poker, the less skilful/smaller players will leave first, leaving behind them the better players who because of their skills may prolong their demise but eventually commission/pc will grind down every player. As public company, BF management unsurprisingly, looked to overseas markets hoping to repeat the early UK years. They met resistance and finding that a grind, they have turned to the proven bookmaking model for future growth. It would have been surprising if they hadn't taken that route.



4. Like many others, I had all my bookmaker accounts closed years ago so the exchanges are the only game in town for me.Being able to get on, plus the convenience of playing and ease of record keeping makes exchanges a great place to be. As BF increase their sports book business, so the exchange will diminish in importance but there will be enough players (of all types) to keep it going.

At least, that's what I hope.

A good summary sandown, with some key aspects.

But was the downturn really happening before PC came into play? I personally don't think so.

1. Unlike shares, property markets, this model is a negative sum game (because of commission and PC) whether you are a backer, layer, trader.There is no inherent investment growth which can overcome poor play, bad luck.

While this is in theory true, the same could be said for the betting markets themselves. Eventually most punters lose to bookies and offset by some distance the money won by the few shrewd punters. The investment comes from new players. Unfortunately Betfair now seems to be preventing new players from arriving at the exchange, so the exchange will become even more of a negative sum game.

Stu

Hard to be confident about that but I think that writing was already on the wall when BF management looked hard at the business leading up to flotation and concluded that without higher income and reduced overheads, they couldn't meet market expectations.

I don't agree with the principle of taxing winning players but the economic argument was pretty strong I would have thought. The irony is that I would guess that the PC was aimed specifically at big traders, the very group that BF set out to attract in the first place. As an opinion player, I enjoy the irony of that.

Darlo Bantam
Running an internet sports book has proven to be a huge success for companies like Bet  365 so it's easy to see why BF would rather have a sportsbook player to an exchange player. It really is a very sound strategic move on their part, imo.

Sandown, an excellent summing up of the situation.
When was the premium charge introduced? I can't remember. I reckon liquidity began to decline from 2008 onwards and sharply from about 2011/2.

I suspect that part of the reason for the introduction of the PC was to try and hamper some of the sharks who were eating up the smaller fish on the site. Did it achieve that? Probably, yes? Has it benefited the exchange as a whole? Surely not.

Barton Bank

Can't remember the exact year PC was introduced but it would be easy to find out by googling it or looking at historic BF accounts. At the time, BF argued that the extra tax levied would be used to attract new players but I recall the analyses that some did at the time which showed that never turned out to be the case.It was probably a bit of obfuscation by BF management who didn't want to reveal the real reasons for it.

I suspect that part of the reason for the introduction of the PC was to try and hamper some of the sharks who were eating up the smaller fish on the site.

100%.

Feb 20, 2015 -- 11:53AM, Barton Bank wrote:

Sandown, an excellent summing up of the situation.When was the premium charge introduced? I can't remember. I reckon liquidity began to decline from 2008 onwards and sharply from about 2011/2.

20% came in Sept 2008, and the 40-60% band at 250k  in June 2011.
However in Feb 2008, the cross-matcher also made it's first appearance (covertly), so 2008 would have seen the first liquidity drop.

A small number of players, especially in-running had been making massive sums in the years leading up to 2008.  I think PC just accelerated the decline which was effectively well under way before then with much casual money have been taken out of the markets never to return.

Remember the old horse markets the night before racing?  That was a classic example of where lots of casual money also got gobbled up.

At one point you could get a couple of grand on the night before, now you would be lucky to get twenty quid at over about 2-1.

It's not liquidity/turnover dropping (I think overall it remains steady so is not dropping) that has made the markets more efficient.  There is less good value liquidity, which is different from less liquidity.

Liquidity has dropped though the figures might suggest otherwise because they include all the robot activity shaving a few quid moving in and out of bets.
That said, you are correct that it is not the cause of the markets becoming more efficient.

pages 2 and 3 of this thread are excellent, the info between Barton and Sandown will give any reader an accurate picture of the exchange betting model and its future..........well done boys agree entirely

I agree page 3 especially will be brilliant :)

The OP uses the term "mug punters" which I take to mean those players who know little or nothing about form, are not price sensitive and do not embrace the concept of "getting value", back horses (or football teams)for entertainment or loyalty rather than profit, do not keep records from which they can check performance, select on the basis of irrational factors such as name/number/colour (of horse),follow media tipsters or even dreams. There are probably other reasons to play but that probably covers most.

I would guess that not many of these have found their way onto the exchanges either because they are not IT comfortable, have no understanding of the mathematics of betting and are unable to put the time into the game to stand any chance against players who may be semi-pro, full-time pro, robots, hedging bookmakers, fast picture merchants (in-running) and insiders.

If they have found there way here, they will have learned that there are no easy pickings here - not any more at least - as many who made money in the early years have now found out. The game has changed and how.

As ever with gambling, to last you must develop one or more "edges" and be on the alert constantly to see when (not if) the "edge" vanishes and has to be replaced.

The exchange market replaced the need for bookmakers to hire odds compilers as the market proved to be more accurate and less costly. However the market can be very unreliable as it is open to manipulation (especially in thin markets) both by owners/trainers and bookmakers who seek to reduce their SP liabilities. And, of course, bookmakers continue to get their cards marked  by trainers and owners.

On big racedays, the market is still strong enough to take reasonable size bets although it is true that it is almost pointless playing outside the final 5 minutes to race time and of course in-running still offers opportunities even though I suspect that much of the money is now for canny insurance bets rather from fast pic /courtsiders.

In some ways, there is more pleasure to be derived from the knowledge that you are up against good players even if the days are seemingly long gone of exchanges being a source of easy money.

I forgot to include "arbers" who I believe are finding life much harder these days as bookmakers have tightened up on their security, improved their technology with virtually instantaneous price changes resulting in minimal price differences both on an off-course. I guess its all about offers and promotions for arbers these days.

I for one believe that arbers have helped exchanges enormously in providing liquidity and for a small "take" provided the means for people like me to get on reasonable size bets without having ever to visit a shop.

We mustn't forget market-makers either who help to kickstart markets in return for volume discounts from the exchanges which contribute substantially to their profits. Have they become fewer in numbers, I wonder?

Personally, I would welcome the very big international pro players like the one's who dominate Hong Kong coming here. I understand that they are present but on what scale I don't know.

So, there are some positives for the future even if the markets are much more competitive today.

There is almost certainly a huge Asian market that can be picked into Sandown.

The truly recreational punter is not a realistic market to get much growth from for the exchange.  But the pool of more analytical people who have been the core of BF from the start could come back or grow if commission was in the vicinity of 3%.  This would place many approaches just a sniff away from profit or in profit.  People would stick around and word of mouth would swing back into action.  But for BF the loss from lower commission may not outweight the gain from new people / money.  Same if they removed crossmatching - this would open up opportunities that have been pinched of the punters. But same quandry with gain / loss. New markets such as the USA obvious would create a surge. 

Overall though, the exchange has allowed large numbers of people to understand the dynamics of the sports betting markets like never before.  This is a one way path to high levels of efficiency.

It would be interesting to see what some of the horseracing markets would be like if they didn't allow bots on them.

Some great posts and well done to Sandown especially-good summary .

For those that are discouraged ,i didn't start full time on here until 2009 - at that time i recall threads where the 'good years had gone' and the markets were too efficient for the newbie to do much good.

Well, i'm of average intelligence and made it work for me and still do although it is getting hard - so don't be put off by ne'ersayers ,there is still scope to make a  modest living .

It's very difficult to get an edge for the reasons already mentioned  ,but you just need to think up a good strategy that gives you a piece of the pie .

The term 'mug punters' is horrible .

Not all recreational players  are looking at  making a profit long term ,most of them bet for fun -  they probably have a more balanced life than the rest of us tbf

has the api for bots always been there? if not what was the before and after like?

I don't think there were any bots in 2003 and also there were
no percentage figures above the list of runners.

I logged in on the day the us open golf was due to start.

The percentages on lay side were about 105% and as quickly as
I took bets there was new money waiting to be taken.
About 2 hours later I was guaranteed to win £5K+ and hadn't taken a bet on about 70 players because they weren't
even listed.

Only a few weeks later,I had to spend about 50 hours on
the Open to find myself in a similar position.

By the time of the US PGA to was about 50 hours for £2.5K.

But luckily both were won by unquoted players and if I hadn't
balanced the books before,and during,the last round,I would have won over £100K on each tournament.

Does all the above relate to 2003, JML?

yes June,July and August.

Around that time I used to be able to lay a decent ante post book at Cheltenham. I would be prepared to lay horses for a few grand generally when they had just won and build a book around them. Nowadays those markets are moribund so I rarely bother.

The golf mmajors are still very busy but the prices are
very competitive.

If I do get involved it's only for half a day.
I'll deposit about £50K and it's years since I've
started with an all green book.

But being a PC payer it's slightly better to win £8K and lose £4K than to win £2K twice.

And if I only have winning markets I'd soon be on 50%.

I think this thread might be making a fundamental mistake in assuming that missing mug money is the result of an absence of a large number of small-staking punters rather than a tiny number of high rollers.

If you're an overall loser and betting small, then you're not really a mug in my eyes. You know your limitations and you're not going to give away too much to the shrewdies. Even if thousands of such punters were suddenly to begin or resume playing here, their money would be spread too thinly over too many markets to make a difference.

But if you're an overall loser and betting big, then you really are a mug and precisely who we're looking for. But such mugs have only very rarely appeared in the exchange markets, and Betfair as a company has done nothing to encourage them. In fact, five years ago, Betfair trialled a specialist High Rollers telephone service, which took something like £25 million in three months, with Betfair netting a £7 million profit. Betfair claimed that a fraction of this turnover was hedged into the exchange, but they stood most of the business themselves, hence the profit. They also said that they discontinued it owing to the volatility, but I guess it's now reappeared in the guise of the Sportsbook. Either way, the exchange is still seeing just a tiny fraction of this REAL mug money.

It's odd that the Betfair markets set the odds now for the world, yet the money traded here is small change compared to what passes among the various legitimate and illegal books and some of their punters and money-finders. You go back to the loadsamoney 1980s and there was Australian art dealer Wayne Heathcote standing next to Terry Barfoot or Wayne Heathcote on the rails at Plumpton laying a £50,000 to £40,000 on an amateur riders' chase. At the same time the Milkman was fixing races to win £100,000 and losing more than that on the races he hadn't fixed.

Into the 1990s and Ladbr0kes had its shadowy High Rollers division, where the fortunes of no more that half a dozen mega punters made or broke a year for the company. For years the firm was whispered to have a Middle Eastern punter who was allowed to have whatever he liked on as long as it was at SP. It all came out into the open one gloomy afternoon at Folkestone when Laddies levered some Gifford-trained chaser that couldn't jump or stay the trip into odds on from the forecasted 10/1.

We get hints of this sort of proper mug money only very tantalizingly on the exchange. There was a whiff of it in the 8.35 at Dundalk on Friday night, when the well backed Excelli went off 3/1 joint favourite, with no more than the usual sums matched on here. But when the gates opened, an offer of £30,000 to back the horse at 4.8 in-running appeared on the screen, and stayed there until it was all taken (the horse finished 4th). I don't know whether this was one bored individual's mug bet, or perhaps some independent bookmaker trying to lay off a mug bet. Whatever, THIS is the kind of money that's been missing from the exchange for as long as I've been here.

What really upsets me is that this is also the kind of money which dictated prices in the happy days before Betfair, when bookmakers set the odds in line with what they were taking from these high-rolling mugs. It's been so much harder in the last decade, now that you're having to play in a market where the odds are set in their absence.

*typo: ... Heathcote standing next to Terry Barfoot or John Pegley on the rails ...

I think this thread might be making a fundamental mistake in assuming that missing mug money is the result of an absence of a large number of small-staking punters rather than a tiny number of high rollers.


Exactly. And it's these very rare punters that the exchange is perfectly set up for, because there are few bookies these days who will take their bets, however likely the bookie are to take the mug money overall.

Depends on the event, shirley?  If Mr M Punter wants 100k on Liverpool tomorrow at 7/4, most of the high street firms would lay the lot quite gladly.  If he's after a competitive price then I agree, they'll probably offer £500 win or something, unless he's such a complete mug that it's not financially sensible to piss him off by rejecting the bet.

If Mr M Punter wants 100k on Liverpool tomorrow at 7/4, most of the high street firms would lay the lot quite gladly



which shops are these then ?

You cant get £100 on a dog race or even £600   on a tennis match

so for you to say they would take £100,000 on a football match sounds like pie in the sky to me

I suspect the above Dundalk example was someone trying to place a bet and missing the start because ATR pictures are behind and the horse were still in the stalls. Don't know why it was left up, but maybe a computer crash. It happened to me once, I placed a bet just as they were jumping off and missed the start (ATR), the bet was left up and taken because my computuer crashed and I was unable to cancel. Fortunately it was for 2.5k rather than 30k but I reckon the same thing might have happened there.

I would be very interested to know what sort of stakes big hitting losing punters are allowed to have on the Sportsbook? Might be very revealing.

Whatever the circumstances of that £30,000 bet at Dundalk, the important point is that it demonstrated the sort of real mug money which is out there, but so very rarely makes it onto the exchange.

I too would like to know whether Betfair is diverting it into their Sportsbook. After their phenomenal success taking high-rolling telephone bets in 2010 it would be surprising if they were not. People who think Betfair established the sportsbook in a vain attempt to compete with B365 may be missing the point. I think it has been an attempt to formalize their 2010 success taking on high-rolling mugs in a way which manages the volatility that caused its perhaps temporary suspension.

if they found they had guaranteed profit from high roller mugs why direct them to the exchange for a smaller profit?

Exactly.

Yep, none us are here for altruistic reasons including betfair,  so no point anyone complaining if they pursue a strategy which is more profitable for them.
If they’re directing large chunks of money to the sportsbook and whether it’s a good long term strategy is another matter. But betfair is no doubt like any other plc in that those making commercial decisions are only really interested in the balance sheet/dividends during their tenure before moving on, which from what I’ve seen tends to be generally < 5 years.

It would be interesting to know what % of the money on the exchange comes via the api , i.e. is it really going to end up being robot wars last bot standing?

Are large chunks of money really going to the BF sportsbook? Why not any of the other bookies that advertise or have more established names in betting markets?

I don't see why a so called 'mug' big player would prefer BF over any of the large number of alternative places they can bet.

Because Betfair have established a reputation for having the best odds available - they persistently advertised as such for a few years. Now they're attracting punters to the Sportsbook based on that reputation.

BF only best price on outsiders i find after comms

I agree BF is def not the default choice for the fav end of the market, especially if you're not backing in that last 30 mins before the race

Probably right. But the adverts never said that - as you'd expect. They simply compared BF's odds to the likes of Hills, Coral, L'brokes, etc, often well-placed so tennis during French Open, horse racing etc, and said "we were better odds on 90% of odds last year". Hence, they build a reputation of best price with your average punter. They don't know the difference between sportsbook/exchange. I feel to some extent that the sportsbook is now riding piggyback on the exchange's reputation of getting good odds.

Here’s a case in point. I was looking at Nomadic Storm in the 1435 at Plumpton tomorrow.
On the exchange 3.2 with £23 available , on the sportsbook 2.75 with £53.62. On bet365 3.25 with £444 available.
And people here wonder why money isn't coming onto the exchange. I can’t be the only one that’s very much a backer and reasonable at, I might not be putting 1000s on but my turnover last year was still 6 figures. For me to back on the exchange the price has to be above, after commission, what I can get at BOG elsewhere ergo the exchange doesn't see that much of my money unless it's the bigger price horses.

My money might be relatively small potatoes but those out there like me will have a cumulative affect I’m sure.

Yep. And it creates a vicious circle.

Here’s another example, a real shorty, I’m considering Duke of Navan in the 1450 Ayr. This exchange 1.32 with £6 available , sportsbook 1.36 with £686 available, bet365 1.33 with £3000 available.
Again if I back it the exchange won’t get a whiff but this time the sportsbook will.
I don’t back the day before but from my experience it’s not likely to be that much different in the morning.

I can’t say what it was like in the past but for whatever reason at times there seems to be a distinct lack of layers willing to take a position for more than a few quid until later in the day and thus the exchange loses a lot of early backers money I imagine.

stu 22 Feb 15 19:38 Joined: 12 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 9,063 | Blogger: stu's blog
Are large chunks of money really going to the BF sportsbook? Why not any of the other bookies that advertise or have more established names in betting markets?

I don't see why a so called 'mug' big player would prefer BF over any of the large number of alternative places they can bet.

I've already posted why we know they come to Betfair, but not the Betfair exchange. I'll have to do it again. From 2010:

"During the first quarter of the year, Betfair ran a trial service with a small number of ‘‘High Roller’’
customers. The size and scale of the betting patterns of these customers is too large to be fully hedged
through the Betting Exchange and so Betfair has necessarily accepted proprietary risk on these bets.

The trial with High Roller customers proved to be profitable, but the volatility of returns from such
customers is such that Betfair has now decided not to proceed with this product offering for the
foreseeable future.

Revenue from the High Roller segment during the first quarter was approximately £25 million and
EBITDA(2) was approximately £7 million. The results will be reported as a separate segment in FY11 and
have been excluded from the Core Betfair revenue for the quarter stated above."

http://corporate.betfair.com/investors/fy-2010-financial-results/~/media/Files/B/Betfair/pdf/results-announcement.pdf

And then, lo and behold, the Sportsbook appeared.

Many layers have tried but failed.
1.36 and 1.33 will only be available to selected customers,
but anyone offering prices on the exchange will just get
picked off by shrewdies or those in the know.

Laying competative early prices on crooked sports is never
going to be profitable.

Screaming from beneaththewaves

The exchange model is risk free but requires big up  front investment in IT/interface. The people they employed at the timewere without bookmaking experience.

In comes a man with experience of bookmaking PP and no doubt he has hired people with that kind of experience too so they are better able to manage a book, compete and control risk. Maybe that's why they felt uncomfortable at the time with their "experiment."

Anyway, that's the  way they are heading if advertising/interface is anything to go by.

You cant get £100 on a dog race or even £600   on a tennis match

so for you to say they would take £100,000 on a football match sounds like pie in the sky to me

As long as your account hasn't been restricted, there's no reason to think a big book wouldn't take 100k on Liverpool at 2.75 when the exchange price was 3.1, is there?  You might have to ring up for it, but still.  They'd just take the bet and then back it at the exchanges themselves.

I particularly enjoyed screaming beneath the waves post on high rollers, but I have to disagree with the point that what the exchange is missing is a "tiny number of high rollers".

These high rollers might inject money , but it will be large amounts on a few events, all of which will be snapped up by a few high tech bots and a few pro's if youre lucky enough to be around on the few markets they inject their cash into.

What the exchange needs is lots of recreational players again. Players directed to the exchange by advertising and who are attracted by the higher prices you can get. Then the exchange might start feeling vibrant again?

You know what you're up against when you see your bet taken in a few of dozen £1.97 slices.

I wonder if the average recreational player knew they were going to lose £5000 and upwards over the average betting lifetime, would they commence betting?

I don't think the average recreational punter thinks about their gambling in terms of profit and loss - it's entertainment and the 'thrill' of it is what sustains the endeavour.

Think about this: would the average smoker give up the habit if they knew they were going to burn 100k on the things in a lifetime?

The win on Nomadic Storm in 1435 Plumpton, I mentioned last night, is a prime example of why I think BOG is a contributing factor for decreases in liquidity on the exchange.
I had my money on early, because my winners shorten more often than not, but it was on at BOG so I didn’t lose out on the bit of a drift (wasn’t enough for me to start laying off)
Where as Duke Of Navan in the 1450 Ayr. I also mentioned last night, shortened up a little bit from the price I took this morning, but that one lost.

So while someone like me who is primarily a backer can still get BOG the exchange doesn’t have much of a pull for lower priced horses.

Thanks for the appreciation, Soup.

Oddly enough the £30,000 available to lay Excelli at 4.8 took a long time to be taken (in terms of the fractions of a second it usually takes for a beaten horse to be laid). I suppose it was something novel, and even those with access to fast pics and/or bots weren't capable of exploiting the opportunity offered by the sudden appearance of a heavy hitter in an unexpected place.

Some very insightful posts on this thread sort of stuff sadly missing elsewhere on the forum's
My own view is it is more challenging these days but for all new people reading this it can be done.
I started on Betfair early 2002 and was full time for just under 2 years,it paid my mortgage and bills and the
usual stuff but would not call myself well off,over the next lot of years i used betfair to fund my additional wants, holidays etc.
In 2012 I found myself out of work for a while and on a very very low bank managed to just about get by for a couple of months.
This time around I have been at it again full time ie my only source of income since Dec 14.
The odds are tighter no question so getting my positions right can be a pain in the ar5e that said if I stick to markets I know and read them properly I am managing to get it right more often than not.
I like the exchange even though we all have reason to complain about it at times(like the Saturday outages or suspended markets) and as long as it stays at least like it is now I think it has a future

Barton Bank    ... It happened to me once, I placed a bet just as they were jumping off and missed the start (ATR), the bet was left up and taken because my computuer crashed and I was unable to cancel. Fortunately it was for 2.5k rather than 30k but I reckon the same thing might have happened there.

I would suggest to use new betfair api method "heartbeat" if you want to avoid situation when your unmatched bet/s are left without managing your bet position by your api software.

When building my api backed last year I tested it and it works fine.

Probably well over my level of technical aptitude tbh. Would that work if the computer crashed? I am generally unable to input my bets until just before the off anyway due to liqudity issues, which is one of the reasons I dropped my stakes down recently.

Just read api documentation for more details. In short, once registered heartbeat when not occurring at preset timeout will cause cancelling all your unmatched bets on betfair.

if there's loads of people sitting there scalping with ladder programs some people must be losing a lot somewhere along the line

neworder69 23 Feb 15 19:10 Joined: 17 Jul 11 | Topic/replies: 393 | Blogger: neworder69's blog
Some very insightful posts on this thread sort of stuff sadly missing elsewhere on the forum's
My own view is it is more challenging these days but for all new people reading this it can be done.
I started on Betfair early 2002 and was full time for just under 2 years,it paid my mortgage and bills and the
usual stuff but would not call myself well off,over the next lot of years i used betfair to fund my additional wants, holidays etc.
In 2012 I found myself out of work for a while and on a very very low bank managed to just about get by for a couple of months.
This time around I have been at it again full time ie my only source of income since Dec 14.
The odds are tighter no question so getting my positions right can be a pain in the ar5e that said if I stick to markets I know and read them properly I am managing to get it right more often than not.
I like the exchange even though we all have reason to complain about it at times(like the Saturday outages or suspended markets) and as long as it stays at least like it is now I think it has a future

Nice to hear a more positive story. Hope it goes well. I guess the question on most people's fingers would be how you're coping with the PC issue. You certainly sound successful enough for that one.

My own view is it is more challenging these days but for all new people reading this it can be done.

Echoes my earlier point, which I think is important, especially as so many moan about lack of liquidity on here.