Winning day and feeling disappointed

Just to clarify, the wins I missed were not losing races for me either today. But I did stare at a 13.0 horse for a long time before rejecting it, then it wins.

"Enough is as good as a feast" but is never enough for a gamboller.

I hope this clarifies the matter

Jan 5, 2015 -- 3:02PM, stu wrote:

Just to clarify, the wins I missed were not losing races for me either today. But I did stare at a 13.0 horse for a long time before rejecting it, then it wins.

Went through the same thing (psychological).  Often find/found myself going through the days racing and will find myself "overthinking" then passing on a horse.

Recently, when a horse is a decent price, will have a minor flutter on it if I'm still sitting on the fence, something that doesn't affect the day/bank but would be a bonus when it comes in.

It was worse years ago when i used to sit down to find my "four for the day".  The number of times the two or three I passed on from the short-list was really frusterating no matter how the day went.

But, like I said, a minor flutter, even a fifth of what you normally put on, can be the trick, especially with, as the thread mentions, a 13/1 EW play.

And, if you still have doubts come race time and the price has moved in, take the trade and either have a free bet or a touch of green.

Yeah, it's rare I end a day happy with how it's gone. If I win, I usually think about the areas I didn't maximise my winnings.  If I lose, well, I've lost!

I don't mind so not something I've looked to address. Think it's a useful feeling as prevents laziness. For me, the joy of gambling for a living is not the buzz of winning but the not having a real job!

Interesting point about adding on the reduced stake if uncertain - although that always seems to go against the grain a little, with the thought that loose bets are eating into the profits, even if they're small bets. Tricky one indeed.

As Templeton suggests in psychology terms it does always seem easier to see the negatives whether it's a good or bad day.

"You've got to have enough on the winners" - the late John Gough

Easier said than done in the light of bookmaker restrictions. And this place is no better: it's always easy to get enough on the losers, but getting enough on the winners involves hard work, time consumption, cunning and frustration.

Quite honestly I don't think it's ever possible to have enough on the winners. A couple of examples: I followed Flakey Dove through the 1993/4 season and decided to place a chunk of my winnings on her for the Champion Hurdle.

V Chandler laid me &10,000 to £600 ante-post. Eddie Fremantle thought I was being reckless and, for my own good, volunteered to take £2,000 to £120 of the bet, to which I agreed. On the day she powered up the hill to victory and about 10 seconds later I was cursing that I could have won 10 grand instead of "just" eight if it hadn't been for Fremantle's intervention. Just to rub salt into the wound the winning cheque was accompanied by the inevitable account-closed letter.

So in my mind one of the biggest and certainly most inspiring and joyous wins of my life became a list of irritations.

Around the same time I had a phone account with Hill's. One Bank Holiday I rang up to have £90 at 100/30 on a nag at Cartmel. It won and a fortnight later a cheque for no less than 3 grand arrived in the post. The price had been wrongly input as 100/3 and the Hill's computer had done the rest.

And my first thought on seeing the error on the statement? "Why did I only have 90 quid on it? If I'd had £180 on it, I would have won... etc., etc."

Jan 5, 2015 -- 7:11PM, stu wrote:

Interesting point about adding on the reduced stake if uncertain - although that always seems to go against the grain a little, with the thought that loose bets are eating into the profits, even if they're small bets. Tricky one indeed.As Templeton suggests in psychology terms it does always seem easier to see the negatives whether it's a good or bad day.

Stu, really minor plays that really don't carry damage or heavy gains. Maybe 30% of a bet on an EW.  Maybe at most 6 or 7 through a week.

Also find that on a day where the decent bets aren't coming in, a little flutter can be reassuring that, yes, you can find winners.

Just so long as you keep a record of the profits/losses on these minor plays. That way you discover whether to cut them out or, very occasionally, work them into a fruitful source of major plays in the future.

Its all about staking the right amount when you perceive value. Its what the Kelly criterion is based on. However, the process of determining the "right" odds is no easy matter so unless you have that in place a BIG, MEDIUM, SMALL staking strategy is fair enough.

Once you make that call what your stake is you have to live and die by your judgement unless new info comes to light before you pull the trigger.

Totally understand the feeling of being disappointed on winning day in that you feel you missed an opportunity so always ask yourself the question before you finish doing the bet "If this wins am I gonna be disappointed?" If the answer is yes you aren't staking enough.

Much more important to ask yourself the question "If this loses, am I going to be consumed with self-loathing and going on a chase?" imo

If the answer is yes, then you're staking too much.

My solution has always been to keep to level stakes as far as possible, plus keeping a separate Stupid Bets account for those occasions when you spot bets outside your principal method(s) which for one reason or another tempt you to get involved, or for which you feel the urge to take a life-changing punt, such as the Flakey Dove example above. Or for when you go on idiotic chases or you spot a split-second opportunity that demands some sort of interest without the chance to rationalize it

I also use this Stupid Bets account to consign losses from methods or systems which had to be abandoned when betting with real cash proved a lot loss inspiring than it appeared when trading on paper.

My Stupid Bets account goes back to October 1986, when my first attempt a punting for a living foundered one afternoon at Devon & Exeter. It currently stands at +£70,722. It stood at +£74,993 on 31 Dec 2014.

I agree with your point, in that I'm moving a lot more towards the level stake view in everything I do these days - less stress, risk and general blood pressure problems!

After losing rather than winning today, I'm feeling the 'normal' version of disappointment with results! Suddenly my yesterday's disappointment does not feel as bad....

Yes. You have to remember the bad days, and especially the bad days that follow other bad days. At the very least they enable you to enjoy any kind of profitable day, even with only a sense of relief.

I can't over-emphasize how much I owe to switching to level stakes back in 1990. If there is just one piece of advice that could turn a losing punter into a winning one, that would be it.

There are punters out there whose selections show a level-stake profit, yet who face a lifetime of losing because they simply will not bet to level stakes. They have a fiver on a dozen nags they think might have a chance, netting a nice 20/1 winner, and a hundred on a couple of 1/2 certainties, also netting one winner. Level stakes profit +8.5 points. Actual profit on the day: minus £65.