General Betting
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Hi Everybody, happy christmas..
While the footy is done with for a few days, lets discuss some strategies.
Which one of 3 is the best would you reckon or feel free to add your own.
a) Laying the draw and greening out after one goal
b) Laying the team opposite to the hot fav
c) Backing 1 1 2 0 and 2 1 to fancied team not neceesarily in the one sided games
d) One ive added and am trying is picking two games in same league at same time then laying both 0 0 s in half time score s or indeed the full time scores when under evens usually around 22 mins in ht and 70 to 74 mins in ft scores. If goal goes in in the first game then you are up and you then red out in second game that remains scoreless. So if you do it for 20 quid you win 20 in goal game and red out in goaless game thus rendering a profit. The faster the goal goes in the smaller the red and you still have around 10 to 15 mins to take a profit albeit small. If no goals are scored in either of the games you obviously lose and if theres a late late goal you break even. Over the space of a large ammount of games I reckon you would come out ahead ?
I also reckon laying teams that are very unfancied but get an early goal fall to a false price and are worth laying based on the fav coming back at them. For example a team like Paderborn take a 1 o lead at Bayern Munich after 10 mins there price falls from 16s say to 6s.. Then Munich equalize and 6s turns into 20s. I know this doesnt happen a lot but over the space of the season across all the leagues i reckon you would finish ahead. Pick the 4 or 5 hot games per week if they dont take a shock lead then forget it and wait until next time.
Am I mad ?
While the footy is done with for a few days, lets discuss some strategies.
Which one of 3 is the best would you reckon or feel free to add your own.
a) Laying the draw and greening out after one goal
b) Laying the team opposite to the hot fav
c) Backing 1 1 2 0 and 2 1 to fancied team not neceesarily in the one sided games
d) One ive added and am trying is picking two games in same league at same time then laying both 0 0 s in half time score s or indeed the full time scores when under evens usually around 22 mins in ht and 70 to 74 mins in ft scores. If goal goes in in the first game then you are up and you then red out in second game that remains scoreless. So if you do it for 20 quid you win 20 in goal game and red out in goaless game thus rendering a profit. The faster the goal goes in the smaller the red and you still have around 10 to 15 mins to take a profit albeit small. If no goals are scored in either of the games you obviously lose and if theres a late late goal you break even. Over the space of a large ammount of games I reckon you would come out ahead ?
I also reckon laying teams that are very unfancied but get an early goal fall to a false price and are worth laying based on the fav coming back at them. For example a team like Paderborn take a 1 o lead at Bayern Munich after 10 mins there price falls from 16s say to 6s.. Then Munich equalize and 6s turns into 20s. I know this doesnt happen a lot but over the space of the season across all the leagues i reckon you would finish ahead. Pick the 4 or 5 hot games per week if they dont take a shock lead then forget it and wait until next time.
Am I mad ?
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Replies: 32
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Back or lay only when the odds are in your favour,
and never discount commission |
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Yes you are a bit mad i'm afraid. Anyone who has any kind of empirical evidence validating any of your strategies or any other ones is hardly likely to discuss it.
By the way when you lay the draw you aren't always able to green out after a goal. |
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I would say that of the five strategies one would work, 3 can work with changes or things added, and b has no chance.
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and if theres a late late goal you break even
How ? |
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By the way when you lay the draw you aren't always able to green out after a goal.
Yeah I know that , its all down to odds , teams involved etc. I think theres merit in this but i often wonder if you lay the draw say in a Real madrid v Vallecano game i think its better to leave it ride and not green out. You would be more likely to win long term than if you greened out. and if theres a late late goal you break even How ? Well one lay wins you 20 and the other cost you 20 as you layed at under evens and remained scoreless. The late goal in one game wins you 20. I think many people have their own strategies but they need a bit of fine tuning. Interesting to discuss. Thats what this form is for. Not just throwing abuse at each other. |
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Sometimes on here things crop up, the welling v ebbsfleet ET market, was showing wild swings on both teams to win in play, very easy to get green,
couldn't back and lay fast enough!! Not sure if this is caused by people chasing after the 90 min result, sadly not enough of these |
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id imagine if people had a bit more discipline and better money management they would do ok, but plenty of punters including myself often bet for the sake of it or to pass time.
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OP, Have you tried backing Home/Draw and Away/draw and lay the Full-Time draw?
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will have to think over that one, wouldent you need to lay the draw into the match to gain an edge and hope it stays 0 0 ?
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No, you need one team to be winning at half-Time , but if it gets to be a draw at some point u can normally green or let it run, if you got ure stakes right
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ah i see , bit slow on that one. The markets are so tight and correct that there must be little scope. Interesting though. You much success with it ? You are on here as long time. Do you just play with footy ?
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Long time, but no Pro, i find this a good bet to layer with other bets on the same match,
Football and Tennis only |
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will look into that one, cheers for input and continued good luck with it. As I said everyone has their own thing going on but its about fine tuning it and of course sticking with it. Did you ever play with correct score market ?
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If under 2.5 goals is a strong favourite and a goal is scored within the first 10 mins
BACK UNDERS - long term profit |
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ZEALOT, I can see the logic, not many bets pro rata
and you would have to be quick, to take advantage of those scrambling in the other direction. |
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ZEALOT, What odds are you talking about at the kick off of these games ? I find the 2.5 market tough to make out.
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don't know what odds tbh , but according to kevin pullein if a match is strongly fancied for under 2.5 goals and a goal is scored in the first 10 minutes the odds of unders are EXACTLY the same as when the game started .
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Sunderland v Hull tommoz, unders 1.64 will go to 2.5 if goal in the 10th min, first goal at around 38mins would return odds to original.
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The only real winner on here, with a few exceptions is Betfair with their risk free high commission rates and huge premium charges taxed on winners between 22.5% and 62.5%.
There are a few pro bot users making money but 99.99% of people on here have no chance of being in profit long-term while being charged between 22.5% to 62.5%. People should not waste their lives spending excess time on here chasing peanuts. Invest your time and spare money betting tax free at the Books/Purple or spend your money on non gambling activities enjoying life. The dream is long dead.  |
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Westender you maybe right but i do beleive lots of small punters here can make a few quid if they fine tune their business here.
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There are much easier ways to make a few quid in the big world out there mate.
The effort expended earning a few quid is simply no longer worth the effort mate. As well as keeping a record of you betting, also keep a record of the hours spent on Betfair every day. Divide 1 by 2 after 12 months and 99.99% of people will make a big loss and/or peanuts not even close to the hourly minimum wage. Spend your time earning a decent wage per hour or enjoy your life on leisure activities. |
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The point is mate that hardly anyone makes money on Betfair, very few make decent money after PC if they are lucky enough to be winners and it is mainly the few super BOT users that are in profits above the minimum wage.
Only a tiny fraction of people can earn above the minimum wage per hour on Betfair so the effort not worth it. 99.99% of people can at least hold signs up in London pointing the public to ticket outlets etc and have a guaranteed pittance instead of a risky pittance at best. |
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Its not that hard to increase bank by 50% each year - starting with £1,000 and compounding each year , it wouldn't take long to grow into a substantial sum .
The main reason people lose on here , is that they want too much too soon . They want to turn £50 into £200 after 3 bets . They want a 150% increase after a £60 turnover . This month my profit so far has been £547 from a risk of £9,600 . a profit on turnover of 5.7% . How many people who play the horses would be happy to win £5.70 for e very £100 staked ??? VERY FEW |
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How many hours mate?
If you are making above min wage per hour then well done. |
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westender , not everyone that uses betfair are using it to try and make a living . of course they all want to win, but even if they break even year on year they are happy .
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Why on earth would people be happy breaking even year on year stuck behind a laptop for hours every week when they could be spending their time enjoying life?
If people don't gamble to win money then what is the point?  There is no fun losing money or breaking even. If you cannot earn at least the minimum wage on here per hour get another job with guaranteed pittance levels. |
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Nice work ZEALOT.. You must be a disciplined individual.
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westender , because some people enjoy having a bet as it makes watching a football game, tennis match , horse race far more enjoyable .
like i said, you are thinking that the mahority are trying to earn a living on here , they are not . |
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Westender -pick my bets the night before , takes about 20 minutes , place bets in morning And update
them at 10am - cancel at in play Takes no more than 40 minutes per day . It's just a laying strategy I use regarding horses age coupled with exposure . Somemuppet - it's the only way to do it , chased my tail for years ha ha I used to look a lot more than I do now and never win . |
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I'm similar Zealot, spend about 20 - 40 minutes every night picking 1 footy game bet for next day, either a lay of 4.5 or under on match odds market or over 1.5 goals 1.30 or over, 1 game a day 2 on saturday/sunday, my naps of the day I suppose. From a 1k starting bank last november using 5% of current bank I'm up to 1248, a profit of 24.8% to date. Of course this can go up as well as down but slowly making steady progress. Patience and selective betting the only way I reckon. I've tried dozens of other betting/staking systems without success, used to get the odd good run but lost overall. I got some advice from a financial investor friend of mine that opened my eyes a bit and realised I was only kidding myself of finding the holy grail of gambling systems and making thousands. Making a steady return can be done on here but 99% of us won't make our fortune on BF.
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