General Betting
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After 5 years since going online my conclusion about betting is as follows.
A.......There is no system that is full proof , simply because........
B......... Its basically luck , not skill, pure luck because........
C........I have tried all ways and i believe if you break even , then in reality you have probably done ok.
Some examples from the last few days............last tuesday i bet on a match,in south america...........american de cali playing some other team,after 63 mins i bet on over 0 goals to double my bet stake, got to 86 min then i cashout, sure its my own choice but it seemed no goal was coming then the next min bang a goal , then a couple of mins later another goal,,,,,sure i cashed out , that my fault but i still was unlucky, making a bad decision.
Example 2..........yesty Motherwall , Dundee match.....i take 2 bets,one a first half goal, and 2, 1.5 and over,well first goal was straight after halftime, second goal never happened despite heaps of trying but basically out of luck.
Then i decide to back LEON V PUEBLO in match after 20 mins for just 1 goal, well same luck as earlier match , 60 mins to score a goal and despite LEON getting 14 plus corners and Pueblo getting a penalty and despite the fact that most penalties are scored they miss and score remains zip.......again no luck.
What im getting at is the fact is that theory and reality simply dont match.....if you back the short odds you get lots of wins but one loss under those systems send you bacjk to the start so once again out of luck.
I Dont believe any strategy is guaranteed..and most of us get undone by the odd bad result, say for instance Real Madrid only scoring once against Liverpool, or the Irish match v Germany,germans leading at 94 min then drawing, bet that stuffed a lot.
It look easy on paper but every system ive had a go at comes unstuck and probably most here probably have the same luck.......thats betting,.i would stress im not complaining or moaning or anything , just telling as it is,ive given this a feely good go and this, i still enjoy the challenge but this is my conclusion, it aint meant to be easy,how do others fare here
A.......There is no system that is full proof , simply because........
B......... Its basically luck , not skill, pure luck because........
C........I have tried all ways and i believe if you break even , then in reality you have probably done ok.
Some examples from the last few days............last tuesday i bet on a match,in south america...........american de cali playing some other team,after 63 mins i bet on over 0 goals to double my bet stake, got to 86 min then i cashout, sure its my own choice but it seemed no goal was coming then the next min bang a goal , then a couple of mins later another goal,,,,,sure i cashed out , that my fault but i still was unlucky, making a bad decision.
Example 2..........yesty Motherwall , Dundee match.....i take 2 bets,one a first half goal, and 2, 1.5 and over,well first goal was straight after halftime, second goal never happened despite heaps of trying but basically out of luck.
Then i decide to back LEON V PUEBLO in match after 20 mins for just 1 goal, well same luck as earlier match , 60 mins to score a goal and despite LEON getting 14 plus corners and Pueblo getting a penalty and despite the fact that most penalties are scored they miss and score remains zip.......again no luck.
What im getting at is the fact is that theory and reality simply dont match.....if you back the short odds you get lots of wins but one loss under those systems send you bacjk to the start so once again out of luck.
I Dont believe any strategy is guaranteed..and most of us get undone by the odd bad result, say for instance Real Madrid only scoring once against Liverpool, or the Irish match v Germany,germans leading at 94 min then drawing, bet that stuffed a lot.
It look easy on paper but every system ive had a go at comes unstuck and probably most here probably have the same luck.......thats betting,.i would stress im not complaining or moaning or anything , just telling as it is,ive given this a feely good go and this, i still enjoy the challenge but this is my conclusion, it aint meant to be easy,how do others fare here
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it was interesting reading all the experts comments and picks before the Melbourne cup last week no one was right and the horse that everyone said was gunna win finished last and died........so all the expertise still didnt make much difference, every horse race is the same, there are hard luck and bad luck stories.
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no such thing as luck in this game, it's all in the numbers.
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FOOTBALL is a TEAM game ........HORSE RACING is individual horses racing against other horses.
FOOTBALL is "simplistic" game compared to the complexities of a horse race. REFEREES often effect the outcome of games........and so LUCK does come more into FOOTBALL games. Should the German goal-keeper been sent off in World Cup Final? Should the German who grabbed Naismith around neck, being last player other than keeper in their defence , have been sent off? Should Maradonna's goal , scored using hand, been booked and goal not allowed? Should a penalty been given re block yesterday by Chelsea defender ? LUCK does exist more in FOOTBALL than in horse racing........... Of course LUCK , like Stewards decision in Breeders' Cup to allow reckless riding in first stage of race to go unpunished, will effect outcomes now and then. It was as bad an incident as MARADONNA's "hand" goal, but generally FOOTBALL , being a TEAM game, controlled by Ref etc, is more prone to their decisions being "wrong" frequently. Therefore, where a sport is substantially prone to REF decisions being "wrong", then perhaps HORSE RACING is where you should specialise in, as there is more skill required with that sport. |
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Take the 3 spanish games that were scoreless draws, betting on just one measley goal and what did that produce, nought, those are the sort of games that the only goal bet is bread and butter, no set rules.
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if you look at say for instance any of the big acca winners , most of the picks they take are usually picks you probably would not bother with normally, just now and then you hit the jackpot...........as for the horses basically a waste of time really.
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You'll never win if you think you are betting on luck.
Why did you make those bets? Short prices? Have an edge? Bored? If you can consistently justify why are you are putting money on a certain price you will win long term. |
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then to cap that off , heaps of goals in match on now, same for games in italy.
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i simply believe no system or scheme is guaranteed.
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ok im just gunna take a bet on boca juniors playing tigre, for the first goal at 1 .26, now bocas are feely warm favourites, will they score one goal or not can anyone tell me , id like to know.
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six corners by home side, doing all the attacking, what do you think, seems its only a matter of time but is it, noone knows.
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could play for two weeks and still remain scoreless.
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heres a match in brazil, cruzero or whatever their name is , first goal inside 2 mins, will the remaining 88 mins be just a snorefest , can anyone tell me.
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If you don't know, don't place the bet.
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I wouldn't dream of placing a bet tonight as I have no idea on the leagues and I'm not in the right mind to do anything.
Here is the bets I've placed today. Not all are winners but I would place exactly the same bets again. Less is sometimes more. http://gyazo.com/f00b683a662443fddf3cbb50bd8e67c2 |
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i read the football forums , it happens to everybody it seems,what looks easy aint so ,trying to predict the future is something noone can really do acurately , perhaps predicting the sun coming up in the morning might be an exception.
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ive studied a lot of these leagues,i predict based on what i think i know and i say think i know that bocas will probably score a goal sometime later on in the 2nd half..........that game yesty in mexico with leon, they attacked most of the match, got 14 or 15 corners , gee if i had of known that the other were gunna miss a penalty after 90 mins , and lets face it most penalties go in woudnt have bothered, nor the celta vigo match yesty
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be pretty hard doing this betting fulltime for a living, anyone that does and survives , i say good [luck] to them.
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MLS matches are great for goals but now we are into playoffs,thats awhole different mindset from regular games.
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and add that to the bocas match , if say no goal after 80 mins what to do, maybe cashout thats the next option.anyway gotta go , need to work now be back later.
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You are placing money with a mindset that you won't win. If I were you I'd stop as you can't possibly win in the long term with that attitude.
You are in a self-defeating circle of your own making. |
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well i was right about the Bocas match, MLS matches have produced 4 goals each and one aint finished yet, and the American De Cali match has produced the goal i wanted plus another, i do folow these leagues very closely, ive had plenty of time to do it, what gets me is the way things **** themselves every now and then, as i say on paper it lookseasy , in reality not quite so, but thats betting for ya.
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making plenty of money is so easy nowadays...
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Hi mikenz. You say you have spent a lot of time studying certain football leagues. Why not spend that time instead studying how the football markets work on here whether it's pre off or in play! You can spend your life studying how many games go over 1.5 goals in a certain league but how to make consistent winnings from it is a different kettle of fish. Making profits before matches kickoff is a good base to start from you get a much better understanding of the primary markets over/under , correct score and match odds rather than spend hours on end looking at stats that could mean nothing useful!
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Why not bet on football games you know about?
Take the guessing out of it. How many of the players could you name from the South American game? what was the weather? the referee? anything unusual etc about the build up to the game? You'd know all this betting on local sports but you blame blind luck for losing on a South American football game! You are the problem and until you can accept this you'll continue to lose. You have to understand what you are betting on and possible reasons why you lost. It can't be bad luck every time. |
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As someone else said, 'it's all in the
numbers', and the layers get that right 90% of the time,... not 100% though. |