General Betting
It seems even 9 seconds is not enough for African Cup of Nations. After having a look at market behaviour, I'm not touching any of the games.
The graphs above look like obvious hoovering, were these bets voided by Betfair? They should be.
I've told Betfair the games look dodgy to me even with 9 second bet delay. I saw someone smash one of the markets in Over/Unders form about 7.2 to 5 (or something like that, can't remember exact odds, but it was of that magnitude) betting on a couple more goals right on the goal.
Also, how can one tell from looking at the charts that this occurred over that 9 seconds of time?
Any help would be appreciated.
Jan 30, 2015 -- 3:48PM, Darlo Bantam wrote:
Not during a suspension Bubica. It's money matched before the suspension, i.e. depending on the delay of broadcast footage and Betfair's streams, some people can bet on something that has happened before anyone else knows that it's happened.
Thank you Darlo. That makes much more sense. Good looking out. Take care.
Jan 30, 2015 -- 6:34PM, gus wrote:
Genuine question, not being snarky, but couldn't it just be that, some folk
Genuine question, not being snarky, but couldn't it just be that, some folk watching the Match, or some bots monitoring the LastMatched Prices, are better at predicting what's about to happen in 10 seconds time? It's not as if the volumes (3 or 4 thousand) were that enormous?
It's not entirely implausible. For example, look at the tennis or cricket markets particularly when people sometimes incorrectly predict a winning shot or a wicket because of a poor shot or dropped catch respectively. However, it's a big mistake to predict a goal by laying everything from what appears to be a price of around 3 all the way doubled to 6.
Genuine question, not being snarky, but couldn't it just be that, some folk watching the Match, or some bots monitoring the LastMatched Prices, are better at predicting what's about to happen in 10 seconds time? It's not as if the volumes (3 or 4 thousand) were that enormous?
While that is indeed possible, it's extremely unlikely. And seeing it multiple times over a couple of matches in the same tournament makes it even less likely, so basically it makes the answer as close to "no" as it can be without being an absolute certainty.
The key thing here is that you can see what's going on if you know how these markets behave. I trade in many different leagues, and this has sometimes been a problem with the Spanish football. It's possible to recognise the pattern of people being so fast compared to Betfair's feed provider that it's barely worth trading, and African Cup of Nations is such a case this year.
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Reasonable question.
To add to what others have said, the giveaway is the scale of the price movement. You don't really get scenarios where a price move of that size is justified by in play events that haven't yet triggered a suspension, especially on games with that long a delay.
My guess would be, someone at the matches on a phone with virtually no delay to someone at a computer is more than 9 seconds ahead of the delay which is being managed off relayed TV pictures, possibly digital.
Feb 1, 2015 -- 10:01PM, viva el presidente! wrote:
Genuine question, not being snarky, but couldn't it just be that, some folk watching the Match, or some bots monitoring the LastMatched Prices, are better at predicting what's about to happen in 10 seconds time? --------------Reasonable question. To add to what others have said, the giveaway is the scale of the price movement. You don't really get scenarios where a price move of that size is justified by in play events that haven't yet triggered a suspension, especially on games with that long a delay.My guess would be, someone at the matches on a phone with virtually no delay to someone at a computer is more than 9 seconds ahead of the delay which is being managed off relayed TV pictures, possibly digital.
It seems that only Investor is clear thinking person here, and person who knows how market behaves. I know the answer, because I know to which site Betfair is evolving(and probably because of expierience-10 years since I found betfair). I dont want to get banned, as my post were deleted recently so I will stay quiet this time. Good luck.
