Trading TOOLS

Thought this was a post about betfair users

Personally, I trade but I'm manual myself - never believed in using software when it's the brain that matters more (IMO). But sure there are loads on here who'd disagree.

Hi stu, thanks, I am actually looking for something like calculator for money ratio when closing trade, or some quick overview over what is more valuable - eg (ht/ft: 1/1 + x/1 + 2/1) vs 1..
I'm looking for a useful tool to help me in trading decisions.. any suggestions? When I stumble on something I will tell.. cheers

I'm actually a little surprised that this subject is so marginalized, because in my opinion tools that would "hold" the whole picture and quickly signal for an opportunity (quicker than anyone's brain) would be a necessity for serious trader.. I certainly am looking for one like that..

Guess it also depends what market (horses the more usual trading one of course)?

You are right. It surely depends..
I started using betfair as an arber, combined it with local bookies for nice avrg. 2% arbs.. but later moved to BF solely.. Any market is fine (football, tenis, horse race..) wherever money flows.. :) ..so the tool can be universal or exact - as long as it serves the goal.. (although, I guess football made majority of my bets)

So far it predicted good where majority of trades will end.
I got to say, this is very good work..

ahh, a thinly-veiled SPAM thread...must think we're idiots, these people

The betfair mods *are* idiots tho

Yep it's spam - and Mickey Mouse!

Just checked - one of the tabs on this very amateur website gives a runtime error!

But you never know - the calculator might work swimmingly even if they can't build a website.

The Three Stooges - LOL

Calling me "spammer" and moderators "idiots".. shame on you ccc..

There is a saying: pearls before swine..

(to everybody else: this calc helped me a lot, so i just wanted to share it with you.. cheers and good luck)

I traded the NASDAQ for several years, in and out with 50,000 including margin. 

I had done the reading, had all the indicators, and a myriad of filters in front of me.

I spent more time watching than trading.  I had a partner so while he monitored, I researched to look for the next move, etc.

The realization that EVERYONE has the same indicators was obvious and as stocks moved, the masses hovered over their day trading fingers.

I spent months developing my own filters.  A combination of weights and measures of times, etc.  I took the filters a step further, removing certain parameters from the trading data, understanding where the money was coming from, etc.  It wasn't simple but suddenly, we found ourselves a few seconds and, in some cases, minutes ahead of the other traders. 

On betfair, years ago, Ed Murray (djsunset) talked of learning about spotting mistakes in the market based on where the odds should be.  Simply put - in-running value.

With calculators and common strategies, the graphs smoothed out.  An example: in football, when the favourite was scored against, the odds would shoot out on the team and the draw would spike out.  It as incredible; Chelsea 0-1 because of a fluke goal by an inferior team were treated as though they were up against a top 4 team.  Value on the draw.

Now, the same scenario and sometimes the draw doesn't even move out and remains flat for the longest period before creeping out.  Hundreds using the same data squishing the market.

I remember watching tennis and the moment Andy Murray smashed his racket, I would lay him.  Sometimes a short trade but he would screw up more points because of one point than most players.  Unfortunately, anger management has hidden that 'tell' but it was an easy one.

Janowicz still is worth laying when you see his eyes trying to remember if he had packed his suitcase and if he still had time to get to the airport or would have to do it the next morning. 

Calculators can't see a racket getting smashed or, in the case of yesterday, Jelena Jankovic's returns slowing down bit by bit against Cornet.

The trader that wins?  The one that knows their tennis, knows their players, knows how they will react, knows if they played three days of tie breakers and are running out of steam.

The guy with the calculator:  Simply a sheep with hundreds of others following.

Thanks Shapeshifter, nicely said. I agree with you and appreciate that you share your knowledge and experience. It is rare nowadays :)

The thing is, I read on this forum a question that some new trader asked - he wanted to know how to calculate backer's.. Man didn't know..

I was asking myself what was the equation for determining 1st set odds from correct score odds data..

Taking i consideration that market is a place where you can find all kind of people with more money than brain, I thought that having some "already made help" could go far.. The proof came from you. You use "homemade filters which took you months to build".. I was maybe naive to ask "if somebody can share some useful tool.." but I got at least a valuable info from you and despite your own opinion - an confirmation that good tool matters..

How stupid do you think we are Keco or should I say Jurica.  You start a thread stating you are looking for a tool, then hey presto, you find this great website and feel the need to tell us all about it.

If you came str8 out and said you designed something it would still be spam but at least honest an straightforward.

It was 14 days between question and posting.

Most spammers can wait 1, maybe 2 hours before answering their own question ;)

The trader that wins?  The one that knows their tennis, knows their players, knows how they will react, knows if they played three days of tie breakers and are running out of steam.

The guy with the calculator:  Simply a sheep with hundreds of others following.

The guy with the fastest calculator will make a killing though.
http://www.amazon.com/The-Wrong-Answer-Faster-Trillions/dp/1118133404

There are also very simple strategies, that lots of people know about, but very few can exploit because it relies on speed and efficient execution, and the profits will tend to concentrate, and those people can then keep investing to make sure they stay ahead.

When there is a relatively easy and widely known way of making supernormal profits, it will attract a lot of competition. That doesn't always mean margins go to zero though, in some cases it can be dominated by very few who can shut others out with better tech and network effects etc., also staying ahead consistently in the ensuing arms race and widening their lead.