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CASHINVEST
24 Aug 14 16:58
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Date Joined: 06 Jan 11
| Topic/replies: 1,460 | Blogger: CASHINVEST's blog
IS THIS THE END??
Pause Switch to Standard View LIQUIDITY IN BIG DECLINE ON BETFAIR
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Report Westender September 29, 2015 1:39 PM BST
The car started rolling backwards in 2008 and was moved to a very steep hill with handbrake released in Nov 2011.
Report pablo-fanque September 29, 2015 1:53 PM BST
I see, thanks
Report Westender September 29, 2015 2:23 PM BST
Car expected to hit the bottom of the hill by the end of 2016.

The relentless decline in liquidity quickly accelerating by the month.

Of course the man in charge of Betfair and soon to be back in charge at Paddy Power may have a change of heart but cannot see it.
Report jamesdean September 29, 2015 3:17 PM BST
Yet westbender is still here 24/7 posting fantasy figures plucked from the Beano. Instead of channeling his negativity and moaning into adapting or something positive, he continues to moan from dusk til dawn.

Liquidity is well down, no doubt. There is however still plenty to be made in the right markets. The glory days may well be over, liquidity is way down, it is a lot harder than it was. The people here the longest (and still winning) will be the ones who adapt the best, as is the case in most walks of life.

Westbender's posts smacks of, he can't make it pay so no one can.

I've highlighted the bullet points especially for you, wb.
Report Cardinal Scott September 29, 2015 3:29 PM BST
Just under 9 Million matched on a tuesday Zimbabwe Pakistan T20 fixture shows this place has not gone to the dogs despite what the moaning minnies say, I see from Alexa Brazil is now a big player here now & I'll be looking out to see if the India figure bounces up as the Ind Saffer series starts later this week, web traffic from there currently at 6.1% was 14% around spring time, IPL time.
Report Westender September 29, 2015 6:33 PM BST
jamesdean in denial and seething LaughLaughLaughLaugh

He is doomed.

Doomed I say. LaughLaughLaugh
Report Westender September 29, 2015 6:46 PM BST
If I am incorrect jamesdean post the correct figures Wink

Who's kidding who - is it me,  or is it you? (Your sister Hazel Dean)

What % on here earn the minimum wage per hour spent on Betfair?

LaughLaugh
Report jamesdean September 29, 2015 6:47 PM BST
Ah there she is, westbender just finished her shift at KFC Laugh

Where have you been, no wifi at work? Wink
Report Darlo Bantam September 29, 2015 7:49 PM BST

Sep 29, 2015 -- 6:26AM, Westender wrote:


Melbourne City Cup Match£0 yes not a penny on the correct score market£2,452 on the match oddsPaddy Power Mgt working wonders in Exchange DestructionNo doubt Darlo Bunting and jamesbean will be on soon telling us otherwise


You still haven't completed that challenge of finding a single post of mine where I believe liquidity is still on the up.

Then again, I don't know why you expect any sympathy from anyone when you admitted you can't make money because you're not first to lay scores that are no longer possible.

Report Westender September 29, 2015 10:11 PM BST
Here they come Darlo Bantam and jamesdean - the forum's Richard and Judy LaughLaugh

Both Trolls that people see a mile away with common characteristics:

1. Start making things up.
2. Changing usernames.
3. Post abuse.
4. Avoid the issues.
5. Fail to answer questions.

Two cheeks of the same arris who think the future is bright under Paddy Power Mgt LaughLaugh

Both on suicide watch when Betfair disappears as neither have a job or life. LaughLaugh
Report romfordiron September 29, 2015 10:25 PM BST
Westender, your bitterness and petulance astound me. I keep checking these threads to see if there's some serious discussion, and all I ever read is you spouting rubbish and throwing your toys out the pram.
Report Darlo Bantam September 30, 2015 1:07 AM BST

Sep 29, 2015 -- 4:11PM, Westender wrote:


Here they come Darlo Bantam and jamesdean - the forum's Richard and Judy Both Trolls that people see a mile away with common characteristics:1. Start making things up.2. Changing usernames.3. Post abuse.4. Avoid the issues.5. Fail to answer questions.Two cheeks of the same arris who think the future is bright under Paddy Power Mgt Both on suicide watch when Betfair disappears as neither have a job or life.


Bit rich ain't it. I issued you a challenge (several times) and you've yet to even try and come up with an answer, instead you just resort to avoiding the issues, making things up and name calling. Just because more than one person disagrees with you, doesn't mean they're in cahoots - it's called reasoned debate. I wouldn't mind some reasoned debate but I fear it's a lost cause where you're concerned. As for suicide watch, I'm not the one who constantly complains about the drop in liquidity, constantly complains about some non-descript match not being in-play on the exchange or constantly complains that it's not possible to make a minimum wage from Betfair.

Anyway, mr romford summed it up far more succinctly.

Report Westender September 30, 2015 9:38 AM BST
I am not the one who relies on Betfair for an income or life LaughLaughLaugh

As said before, huge numbers of people have adapted to the Paddy Power Exchange destruction - they now bet elsewhere or spend their money on the plethora of non betting activities adding some value or pleasure to their lives.

I accepted Betfair was finished over 2 years ago so I suggest jamesdean/Darlo Bantam do the same as the sea of empty boxes grows by the week. LaughLaugh
Report romfordiron September 30, 2015 9:49 AM BST
If you don't make money on Betfair and have no aspiration of doing so in the future, why are you always on these sorts of forum threads? Stick to the 'double your money', 'all in on XY or Z' or 'so and so cannot lose' threads if it's just a social outlet.

Why do you even care if liquidity is down and punters are leaving if you don't rely on the exchange for income?
Report Westender September 30, 2015 9:56 AM BST
Responding to others who care and looking for answers Wink

I have the odd bets here but only about 1% of what I was betting 3 years ago.

Accept and move on.

Get on other thread with your positive changes to the Exchange
Report Darlo Bantam September 30, 2015 10:10 AM BST
I have the odd bets here but only about 1% of what I was betting 3 years ago.

Yet, it's you, not anyone else, who complains that really rather random matches aren't in play, like Zenit Under 19s and a Melbourne Cup match; strange matches to complain about if you're only having a random bet. And secondly, someone only having an odd bet shouldn't really be too bothered that he can't lay impossible scores any more - unless your only odd bets are simply hoovering up impossible money.

Accept and move on.

Bit rich, given your own complaints. I suggest you do the same, accept what has happened and move on, and stop complaining and complaining and complaining. Because those complaints are achieving nothing.
Report Westender September 30, 2015 4:21 PM BST
Here comes Judy again

I pointed out certain matches are in-play exclusively on the Spudsbook and not the Exchange given examples of this happening more and more as people don't notice or believe it. The Darlo Bunting somehow thinks I am betting on them as well as laying impossible scores at 1000/1 when I stated the layer does not have the 12 second delay and likely to be Betfair at work in response to another post. LaughLaugh

This forum is dead as people no longer waste their energy on Betfair - they just leave Betfair altogether and spend their money elsewhere.

Given I started another thread about IMPROVEMENTS to the Exchange under Puddy Flower, I expect to see hundreds of posts from you pointing out the improvements.  How many so far - the square root of zero and it will be the same 1 year from now if forum not closed as expected. LaughLaugh

There is more chance that the Queen goes on the pitch before a match at Bradford and farts into a microphone.

Paddy Power eat the whole cake now and throw the crumbs on the floor for the BOTs to argue over.

Accept it is all over and move on. LaughLaugh
Report Westender September 30, 2015 6:01 PM BST
I will bump my thread on the general forum on 30 Sept 2016 and leave jamesdean/Darlo Bantam to fantasise about Paddy Power returning the BETTING EXCHANGE to the glory days.

I have moved on and Betfair in a coma is really not worth arguing about these days - it is a dead duck floating waiting on the pond drying up completely before removal.

Good luck all.
Report rink rat September 30, 2015 6:40 PM BST
Baseball 1 and 2 teams in prime UK timeslot, 2455 USD matched. Seeders must be on reduced hours today.
Report fixed September 30, 2015 9:06 PM BST
meaningless game one week from playoffs as part of a doubleheader that had been scheduled on the fly last night...so basically nobody knows there even is a game right now


absolutely stunning to see how even half-smart people can constantly get this sample size thing completely wrong
Report henryluca October 5, 2015 5:25 AM BST
Yet westbender is still here 24/7 posting fantasy figures plucked from the Beano. Instead of channeling his negativity and moaning into adapting or something positive, he continues to moan from dusk til dawn.

Liquidity is well down, no doubt. There is however still plenty to be made in the right markets. The glory days may well be over, liquidity is way down, it is a lot harder than it was. The people here the longest (and still winning) will be the ones who adapt the best, as is the case in most walks of life.

Westbender's posts smacks of, he can't make it pay so no one can.


Jamesdean

Agreed..actually think he is the former poster starting with Z
Report Cardinal Scott November 20, 2015 5:57 PM GMT
With £28 million and counting matched on today's Pak v Eng 1dayer looks like cricket markets are still liquid but I remember this time last year Pak v NZ 1dayers were drawing £50 million+
Report Westender November 21, 2015 9:39 PM GMT
Thick henryluca has failed to see that the crumbs left on the Exchange are no longer worth the effort.

Q What % of people on here now earn THE MINIMUM WAGE PER HOUR ON BETFAIR?

A After winners taxed between 22.5% and 62.5%, Betfair BOTs skimming, increases in commissions, Sportsbook the default page and customers leaving in droves by the month - less than 0.02%.

The other 99.98% would spend their time better flipping burgers on the minimum wage as they would earn more money.

Paddy Power Mgt has strangled the Exchange of liquidity and it will disappear 2 years post takeover by Paddy Power.

Adapt to that henryluca as your Exchange Betting days are numbered. LaughLaugh
Report Senyatta November 22, 2015 1:51 AM GMT
its a joke. even now the premier league markets aren't worth a bet until a couple hours before televised game. theyve put up a few future markets such as the 2019 rugby world cup so they must have some sort of plan in store.

cant understand how no competitor has emerged in the last few years.
Report Drive_Blind November 22, 2015 6:22 PM GMT
"cant understand how no competitor has emerged in the last few years."

Costs of startup are astronmical, plus marketing, mean only established bookies could afford a decent exchange offering.  Why would they, much more money to be made with a sportsbook ?
Report Westender November 22, 2015 10:41 PM GMT
That did not stop Betfair, Facebook, Ebay, Amazon etc and won't stop new entrepreneurs making a move in the betting industry when the market is ripe for change.

This day becomes closer with each passing day as Betfair Mgt grinds a risk free profitable business into the ground.
Report pxb November 23, 2015 12:47 AM GMT
I see challenges coming from 2 directions.

One is India, where some states are moving to legalize sports betting - illegal gambling in India is huge and almost all on cricket. If a viable cricket betting exchange comes out of India, liquidity would move very quickly. I'm a pretty big cricket trader and I'd have no problem with an India based exchange with credible backing.

The other challenge is from Sports fantasy betting, which is rapidly globalizing from it's USA base. For legal reasons, it's not properly p2p in the USA nor is betting on actual matches allowed, but just a small changes to their model in juristictions where p2p is legal.
Report Cardinal Scott November 23, 2015 1:39 PM GMT
I wonder if this is a New Dawn for the Exchange model or a False Dawn http://www.sbcnews.co.uk/europe/uk/2015/11/23/betfair-gains-first-new-jersey...
Report Senyatta November 23, 2015 7:52 PM GMT
the sportsbook cant make them much though can it? no serious better can get a bet on. im a small punter but even im restricted to "no bet" with the book.the big guys are whats needed on the exchange. hopefully the charges get put back to just commission and everyone will be happy in the end.
Report seaside November 24, 2015 7:19 AM GMT
Not had a bet for over a year on Betfair
Report Templeton Peck November 25, 2015 11:11 AM GMT
"its a joke. even now the premier league markets aren't worth a bet until a couple hours before televised game."

When I started in 2009, most of what I did involved Premier League side markets the Tue-Thu before a PL match.  Now these markets aren't even loaded until Thursday and you'll literally see £0 matched until a few hours before kick off. I've now all but given up on Sat 3pm football as their side markets see peanuts matched.
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 25, 2015 12:45 PM GMT
what is "sports fantasy betting"?
Report Gin November 25, 2015 2:48 PM GMT
http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/12380815/the-skills-required-succeed-dai...
Report Johnny The Guesser November 25, 2015 3:07 PM GMT
Plenty love the way the business is being run. Squeezing out the juice for the shareholders and not the sharp minds. Share price hits £36. Company valued at well over £3bn.
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 25, 2015 6:48 PM GMT
Cheers Gin.  I actually had a look at a football version called mondogoal.  Thought it was ridiculously complicated.  It made the premium charge look like something you'd find on Sesame Street
Report DIE LINKE November 25, 2015 7:20 PM GMT
Backers have gone AWOL on quite a few of the sub markets on football and it starts in 25 mins. Man Utd v PSV champions league £511 matched on shown a card, not one single request for a bet.
Report Templeton Peck November 25, 2015 8:17 PM GMT
Johnny, you're confusing the exchange with the business.  There's a reason they no longer report on the exchange...
Report Johnny The Guesser November 26, 2015 6:43 AM GMT
All we get is "sports book is rubbish",  "exchange is finished" forum moans.

Meanwhile, Betfair is the darling of the City. Shareholders loving it.

Who do think is right?
Report Westender November 26, 2015 8:48 AM GMT
The forum as Betfair is finished - the takeover by Paddy Power has been approved.

BETFAIR NO MORE
EXCHANGE NO MORE
VALUE NO MORE
FORUM NO MORE
Report Senyatta November 26, 2015 6:49 PM GMT
is it fair to say that anyone out there who bets regularly(not peanuts) and still has a sb,paddy,365 acc open is a mug?

wonder what percentage of those are happy and see it as the equivalent of a pack of cigs,pint etc. these are the desired customers it would appear. and better than these are big punters who chase and bet on anything that moves. they will never be restricted. in fact i knows a few mugs who regularly get freebets and offers when they take a week or two off betting.

its a no lose situation really for these firms but still they are not happy. even guys like me who like a small bet but like to take a bit of value say back a tenner on a 3/1 shot at 4/1 if i can find one are frozen out. i wonder what amount tax these firms pay it must be as easy as being a big drug dealer with no chance of being caught. i hope they are being taxed enough for printing money
Report ZEALOT November 27, 2015 4:28 PM GMT
it amazes me how people say you cant get value no more !!!
Report Coachbuster November 27, 2015 4:55 PM GMT
Westender - which markets are you playing ?
Report Coachbuster November 27, 2015 4:57 PM GMT
bets do get taken these days and extremely quickly  ,but at more generous odds  - for example  in football,  i used to lay the half time 3-3 score all day on here for 400-500/1 and got many takers ,but in 2015 there is a queue ready to lay at 1000  after around 35 minutes.

How times have changed
Report Coachbuster November 27, 2015 4:59 PM GMT
as time has progressed ,those in the know have adjusted the prices  to realistic levels (and there are some  that are also more  inclined to take greater risks to part recoup staked funds ) 

it can only end in tears  for those layers  - every dog has it's day
Report longbridge November 27, 2015 5:04 PM GMT
@Westender

Just on a matter of fact: "the takeover by Paddy Power has been approved."

Not only not approved, not even been put to shareholders (off PP & BF) yet.
Report Coachbuster November 27, 2015 5:13 PM GMT
it's hard when you see every edge you ever had on here disappear before your eyes , but you have to keep looking for new areas - different strategies  -this is what Westender and (most ) of us   must do .
Report Westender November 27, 2015 9:22 PM GMT
There was life before Betfair and people will survive no problem when Paddy Power close the Exchange after continuing to strangle the liquidity out of it.

Paddy Power Mgt at Betfair eat all the cake now and leave people to fight over crumbs.

Who is going to fart about betting when people lose and the few winners are taxed between 22.5% and 62.5% of winnings?

That is why liquidity is declining relentlessly week by week - people simply spend their time and money elsewhere on non betting activities.

There is a plethora of business opportunities outside Betfair and a plethora of leisure activities for people to enjoy.

That is the real competition for Betfair.
Report Westender November 27, 2015 9:22 PM GMT
There was life before Betfair and people will survive no problem when Paddy Power close the Exchange after continuing to strangle the liquidity out of it.

Paddy Power Mgt at Betfair eat all the cake now and leave people to fight over crumbs.

Who is going to fart about betting when people lose and the few winners are taxed between 22.5% and 62.5% of winnings?

That is why liquidity is declining relentlessly week by week - people simply spend their time and money elsewhere on non betting activities.

There is a plethora of business opportunities outside Betfair and a plethora of leisure activities for people to enjoy.

That is the real competition for Betfair.
Report Lex November 29, 2015 1:22 PM GMT
All this talk of Betfair exchange is finished is absolute nonesense. Of course its not. Far from it. Its just evolving as most things do.
This exchange will be around for as long as there isnt a viable competitor.
Report Westender November 29, 2015 3:24 PM GMT
The Betfair Exchange is formally finished soon when the takeover by Puddy Flower is completed early next year.

That is the formal end of the Betfair Exchange and the end of an era.

Puddy Flower is a bookmaker run by the current Betfair bookmaker solely for the benefit of shareholders.

What do you think is going to happen - Paddy Power change their home page to the Exchange or advertise the Exchange LaughLaugh

People think it is all over - hard to argue.
Report Lex November 29, 2015 3:51 PM GMT
To say its the end implies the exchange's doors will be shut and bolted.

considering the money it makes do you honestly think that will happen?
Sure, the commission system et al is keeping the market makers and big hitters away but you and me will me here for years to come until xyz exchange takes its place.
Why hasnt betdq folded by now and thats owned a bookie.? cos it's paying its way.
Report Westender November 29, 2015 5:14 PM GMT
There is a thread outlining numerous actions of what current Paddy Power Mgt has done to strangle the Exchange.

Let us know what Paddy Power intend to do to address the relentless decline in liquidity.

The back of the Postage Stamp awaits your response.
Report Westender November 29, 2015 6:05 PM GMT
How long does it take mate?

The forum and postage stamp rear awaits your response
Report Johnny The Guesser November 29, 2015 8:39 PM GMT
Nobody is going to let a £3bn business slowly die.

Management now have a near perfect business model. Mugs directed to sports books ..Shrewdies grinding themselves to dust on the exchange. Throw in In house risk management through the exchange. What's not to like  ?

The price sensitive recreational punter can still dip in and out of exchange / fixed odds at near to 100% books. Nothing much changes for him. If he can no longer get a fair price on some of the more obscure markets he shrugs and moves on.
Report Westender November 29, 2015 9:13 PM GMT
They thought they had a near perfect business model but they did not factor in the mass loss of liquidity and customers.

This has manifested itself in a sea of empty boxes as the dust cloud gathers by the week.

It is a continual cycle of decline until the last Bot has no money to bite.

Without a continual supply of customers and liquidity - there is no future for this particular Betting Exchange.

It will get to a point where it is no longer viable and Puddy Flower will turn it off when it starts costing them money.
Report Johnny The Guesser November 30, 2015 11:06 AM GMT
You can short the June share price at £37 right now

I assume you have a monster position ?

Or maybe you are just spouting hot air because the business goes from strength to strength whilst squeezing you out ?
Report DOUBLED November 30, 2015 1:36 PM GMT
Johnny run along and spout your Corporate sh1te on another thread cos people who have used the exchange since the early days know the truth and dont give a flying **** about the share price or what "the city thinks"
Thanks for your input though
Report Johnny The Guesser November 30, 2015 4:56 PM GMT
Did you naïve souls really think you would be allowed to piggy back your business through BF for ever?
Report pxb November 30, 2015 10:05 PM GMT
BF's problem is that it neglected the cashcow exchange, and spent a large slice of the profits on stuff that always lost money. They have been lucky that a viable competitor hasn't come along. But there will be sharp minds with access to deep pockets eyeing the betting exchange business in Silicon Valley, Bangalore and elsewhere.
Report NorwichRob December 4, 2015 10:51 PM GMT
BF had a unique position in the early days, which we all enjoyed as the tech punting shrewdies Mischief, however the shift is evermore towards the footy punting mobile 20 something for the next stage...these guys have no interest in horses its all about instant punting
Report Darlo Bantam December 4, 2015 11:04 PM GMT
Hence the award-winning "tap, tap, boom" promotion.

Seriously though, it's a very good point. That very generation will have little interest in disembowelling the exchange for their price and punts. The exchange still has a part to play, but mobile technology can only have helped push it aside, along with a range of other well-debated factors.
Report roychristie1 December 5, 2015 12:01 AM GMT
What I find quite interesting that given their amazing pr exercise to cosy up then completely take over the the horse racing industry from 2001-2015 . The pr on the exchange is very poor . The chief executive recently admitted to not being sure when liquidity providers would refuse to continue or knowing what to implement to keep providers continuing.
Report NorwichRob December 6, 2015 9:03 PM GMT
Can't see the liquidity coming from the youngsters, the exchange has been funded by hedge fund managers with huge pots, the dough will dry up soon..
Report Cardinal Scott December 7, 2015 10:26 AM GMT
If this continues Dear Old Blighty will be surpassed by Brazil as No 1 in Web Traffic to Betfair. http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/betfair.com
Report pxb December 8, 2015 4:54 AM GMT
This shows bf traffic went off a cliff around the start of the year. You'd have to say the new site is to blame.

http://www.trafficestimate.com/betfair.com

Traffic probably correlates poorly with trading volume. But probably correlates well with bets by casual punters.

On the web, simplicity is everything.
Report Lex December 9, 2015 11:59 AM GMT
Using the same site comparing daq hills ladds sky etc is also quite enlightening.
Report longbridge December 9, 2015 12:52 PM GMT
I don't believe that graph is showing what it's being interpreted as.  Like or loathe the new site, BF in general etc there's no way that BF usage dropped by a third between Jan and Feb 2015 and then flatlined thereafter.

Would be interesting to work out what the actual underlying cause is.
Report Lex December 9, 2015 1:43 PM GMT
look at paddy, hills and ladds. they all did the same.
Report Darlo Bantam December 9, 2015 4:59 PM GMT
Traffic probably correlates poorly with trading volume. But probably correlates well with bets by casual punters.

Very true and important to note. I doubt that API usage will be calculated by the likes of Alexa or similar services. But API users will provide a different type of liquidity to the casual punters.
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH December 13, 2015 6:53 PM GMT

Nov 29, 2015 -- 2:39PM, Johnny The Guesser wrote:


Nobody is going to let a £3bn business slowly die.Management now have a near perfect business model. Mugs directed to sports books ..Shrewdies grinding themselves to dust on the exchange. Throw in In house risk management through the exchange. What's not to like  ?The price sensitive recreational punter can still dip in and out of exchange / fixed odds at near to 100% books. Nothing much changes for him. If he can no longer get a fair price on some of the more obscure markets he shrugs and moves on.


well put !!!!!!

Report pxb December 13, 2015 7:27 PM GMT
What's not to like

They have left the barn door open for a competitor, and once that horse has bolted, it aint coming back.

If you pitched a bf like strategy at Amazon or Goggle they would fall about laughing.
Report Westender December 28, 2015 9:38 PM GMT
.
Report iprefertolay December 29, 2015 12:23 AM GMT
i agree with westerner see other nearbye posts
Report Coachbuster April 16, 2017 9:39 PM BST
whatever happened to Westender ?
Report Cardinal Scott April 16, 2017 10:23 PM BST
I assume Westender was banned as when I click on his name it doesn't show his forum posts history as it does when I click on Coachbuster or PXB.
Report pxb April 17, 2017 6:44 AM BST
I had another look at Alexa stats. bf traffic still declining relative to internet traffic overall. But a perhaps surprising high proportion of highly educated people.
Report Barton Bank April 18, 2017 4:41 PM BST
The inorexable decline continues.
Report TheFear April 19, 2017 5:17 PM BST
place markets with only just over 20k matched is becoming a regular occurrence even at big tracks like Kempton yesterday.
Report Coachbuster April 20, 2017 3:34 PM BST
Fewer folk on each market all knowing exactly what they are doing . Activity becoming more and more concentrated too . 

Like a late summer wasp , dying on it's ar$e .

Bookies may be finding it useful to offset liabilities .

Cardinal - yes , i would assume so . Grin
Report Coachbuster April 20, 2017 3:35 PM BST
'and a sea of empty boxes'    to quote the great man  Laugh
Report Barton Bank April 21, 2017 4:57 PM BST
There is a race at Kilbeggan (not one for me thank goodness) and with 3 minutes to go before the off less than 25k matched in the WIN market and less than 2k in the place!
Report Barton Bank April 21, 2017 5:03 PM BST
Fontwell two minutes to go before scheduled off time, win market barely reached 50k and place market around 5k matched. Dying a slow painful death.
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH April 22, 2017 12:11 PM BST
one reason only for the decline and we all know it !! premium charge !! I trade cricket exclusively now as a consequence only due to the liquidity, and place my opinion bets elsewhere & why bet or trade any other sports when you can pay 2% in most other places. I used to punt some of my cricket winnings back through other sports on betfair as did most other now premium charge payers. Personally I think we will see a restructuring of premium charge this year as Paddypower will not want to see the billions they paid for betfair diminish rapidly. Paddypower has been recruiting for betting exchange senior staff most recently to turn it around, so we will live in hope Happy
Report Barton Bank April 22, 2017 5:42 PM BST
There really is not only one reason. I don't dispute for a second that the premium charge has been one of the key reasons. Number one for me is the promotion of the sportsbook ahead of the exchange.
Report Coachbuster April 22, 2017 8:01 PM BST
spot on Barton  . There are too many layers and not enough takers imo  which indicates a lack of recs
Report pmbets April 23, 2017 2:20 AM BST
There is very little liquidity and zero volatility both are required to make a market.
Betfair the exchange has lasted 17 years and the end is nigh unless senior management remove the
virus that is destroying the exchange.That been the Premium Charge.The clock is now ticking.
Report pmbets April 23, 2017 2:51 AM BST
In US racing almost every race the US track tote pays higher than the Betfair SP and the US track tote is poor value.
Imagine been a US Betfair SP backer or layer and receiving poorer value that the US track tote,rare after race.
You know it's game over for the Betfair exchange once you experience that.
Betfair is eating itself.
Report pmbets April 23, 2017 2:52 AM BST
The Betfair exchange is about to become a ZOMBIEDevil
Report Woodchip April 23, 2017 5:27 AM BST
Got a phone call last november saying i would have to pay 60 percent preminum charges from december onwards.Withdrew my funds and havent used the site since.Then got an email in march saying they were restricting and delaying market data on my account saying i was a commerical  user whatever that means.Remember when first joining this site getting a phone call asking how i was finding the site and betfair putting an extra few quid on top of my deposit.Two years later made a withdrawl by cheque and received two cheques by mistake rang them up returned one of the cheques and received 100quid into my account.Used to recommend this place to anyone who would listen thoes days are long gone.
Report pmbets April 23, 2017 8:43 PM BST
Woodchip I gave over 20 grand on a massive winner I had on winning distances.But because they had a drop down box and the distances
included all races when most people thought it was for one race.So I backed thousands over say 10 lengths.This was very early in the Betfair/Flutter take over days.
Betfair rang me and asked if I would hand over the cash back as they had made a massive mistake.
I agreed as I loved the exchange and thought I saw the future.By the way this is when Betfair has very little money and over 20K was a lot of money for the business
considering they would had lost a lot of horse racing punters if they wouldn't have voided the whole market.
Also countless hours of my time I gave up for free to build betfair in the early days and I was instrumental in the uptake of the fruit machines etc and international racing.
Wish Diamond Mick(greyhound pro,forget his surname) still worked there from the early days.He told me everything and we could have great discussions about the betfair future.Miss Mark Davies too.

Never mind I have a clear conscience.
Report Bud April 24, 2017 4:04 PM BST
I have looked at the average turnover per race over the last 11 years for UK and Irish horse races. Here are figures...

         Win      Place    IP Win    IP Place     
2006   474,459    74,569   104,930     7,130
2007   539,316    91,140   140,781    16,064
2008   553,260   102,548   161,802    18,110
2009   575,579    98,218   172,713    16,000
2010   517,277    88,954   182,314    14,456
2011   577,626    87,246   252,208    17,386
2012   561,480    87,636   189,868    15,076
2013   522,020    84,516   175,342    11,860
2014   549,913    86,235   177,509    11,035
2015   555,217    74,945   176,992     9,886
2016   566,287    68,217   185,156     8,641

The place markets seem to be in decline (from a high in 2008) but the win markets seem to be holding up?
Report Just Checking April 24, 2017 5:31 PM BST
I'd be interested to know what % of exchange bets are normal people and what % are now just bookies etc and even betfair themselves moving liabilities about from the rest of their site.
Report longbridge April 25, 2017 11:38 AM BST
@Bud is your 'Place' figure just the main 'Place' market or have you added in the extra TBP markets BF have been offering in the last year or two?
Report Wicklow April 25, 2017 11:57 AM BST
Interesting numbers there Bud - The win markets have definately held their own, but as you demonstarted the Place markets are going one way. As bad as the place markets were last year (2016), so far this year they have falling off a cliff. Even allowing for the extra place markets the average is going to be 10-20% reduction.

In running wise its even worse - the bot has taken over the market and place market players like myself have been pushed out of the market by the constant jumping. I still play abit on the market, but its a ghost town now - and it can only be put down to the frustration of players like myself constantly getting pipped by the bot.
Report Total Bosman April 25, 2017 3:57 PM BST
it's hard to see what PC is for any more.

The initial justification was that the winners were winning too quickly from the losers, and so the losers were being scared off.  Fair enough, but the PC did nothing to lessen the rate at which the losers were losing, so it didn't solve the problem.  Nor did it go towards recruiting new blood to the exchange, so that didn't solve the problem either.  So you not only lose the losers at the same rate, but you also lose the winners, who bet less, elsewhere or just chuck it, in the face of unjustifiable charges.   You hasten the decline you were trying to arrest.

Left to it's own devices surely the markets would have sharpened, and over time the losers lost less and the winners won less, which is ideal for Betfair.  It's hard to see how the meddling helped, and certainly to see what function it has now as things choke to death.
Report Coachbuster April 25, 2017 5:28 PM BST
The markets  have sharpened already as a result of the declining recs population . There are more than enough layers already - we don't need any more so the pc is an irrelevance from that angle .

We need buyers - they're hard to find  -  they've all been directed to the sportsbook . Cry

the only value now seems to come from buying bets at a price you consider to be value   and then taking your chances on the outcome  Laugh
Report Coachbuster April 25, 2017 5:30 PM BST
and then when the smaller sharks start to see  their profits wane at the expense of the larger sharks you will then see 'seas of empty boxes'
Report fixed April 26, 2017 5:49 AM BST
if only the boxes here were empty.


bud has a relevant stat, pretty much everything else is just the same endless, meaningless, drivel.... over and over again, at least 5 years running now


average turnover per race past 11y   816k
average turnover per race 2016       827k
Report Bud April 26, 2017 8:03 AM BST
The figures are just for the normal 'to be placed' market rather than the extra TBP markets that Betfair have introduced over the last few years. I suppose the turnover in the main place market could be less because of punters playing on the other place markets rather than just the main one.
Report longbridge April 26, 2017 10:04 AM BST
@Bud - that was my thought - they sometimes match sums not hugely smaller than the main Place market (and sometimes match buttons, I should look for trends).
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