|
By:
Oh, OK. So either
a) It's a secret, or b) no-one understands the question, or c) all 30 people who have viewed this thread are as tick as me. |
|
By:
B = Back Odds
C = Back Stake D = Lay Odds (There is no E) F = Lay Stake G = Lay Liability H = Net P/L (as a percentage of C) R = Commission Rate We can work out F, G & H from known values of B, C, D & R thus: [1] F = B*C/D [2] G = (D-1)*F [3] H = (F-C)*(1-R)/C What I want to do is determine D, F and G from known values of B, C, H & R. Can it be done? Assuming that your exit trade is to an equal profit on all outcomes as implied, then: [4] (F-C)*(1-R) = (1-R) * C * ((B/D)-1) We know that, H = (F-C)*(1-R)/C Therefore, [5] (F-C)*(1-R) = H * C Therefore from equations [4] and [5], H * C = (1-R) * C * ((B/D)-1) H/(1-R) = (B/D)-1 1+ H/(1-R) = B/D [6] D = B/(1+(H/(1-R))) As D is now known, F can be calculated using equation, [1] F = B*C/D As D and F are now known, G can then be calculated using equation, [2] G =[D-1]*F Example: Assume that prior to a coin toss you back 'Heads' @ 2.2 for £100. Strangely you also know that your Net P/L expressed as a percentage of the back stake is 9.5%. The commission rate is 5%. Assume the stated commission rate to be inclusive of any customer discount rate. The applicable commission rate would be known to be 0% if H was negative if the bets were struck on this exchange. B = 2.2 C = £100 D = F = G = H = 9.5% (0.095) R = 5% (0.05) Therefore to find the lay price D, use equation [6], D = B/(1+(H/(1-R))) D = 2.2/(1+0.095/(1-0.05)) D = 2.2/1.1 D = 2 To find the lay stake F, use equation [1], F = B*C/D F = 2.2*100/2 F = £110 To find the lay liability G, use equation [2], G =[D-1]*F G = (2-1)*110 G = £110 |
|
By:
Alternatively you could observe that,
(F-C)*(1-R) = H * C (F-C) = (H*C)/(1-R) F = C +(H*C)/(1-R) Having calculated F, use that value to calculate D using equation [1] and then G using equation [2]. That would be boring though. Early night? If not, you're welcome. |
|
By:
jt45
You were correct in your assumption - (I should have explained that). Yep - all tested in Excel and spot on! That's perfect! Many, many thanks. Steve (Keeping odd hours whilst the missus is away). |