General Betting
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
04 Aug 14
11:43
Joined:
Date Joined:
04 Jan 04
A friend of mine had a fair bit of success last season with the following method.
He would select a match where both sides are close together in the betting .
For example : Everton v Arsenal.
He would lay 3 scores : An Everton winning score, an Arsenal winning score and the draw [not 0-0 , 1-1 ,2-2 but the match draw price].
His thinking was that 2 of the lays were going to win and it was then just a case of how many hits he would get on the other outcome.
I was surprised it showed a profit over the season and i'm thinking was he just lucky last season or is there any mileage in this method?
Any thoughts ?
He would select a match where both sides are close together in the betting .
For example : Everton v Arsenal.
He would lay 3 scores : An Everton winning score, an Arsenal winning score and the draw [not 0-0 , 1-1 ,2-2 but the match draw price].
His thinking was that 2 of the lays were going to win and it was then just a case of how many hits he would get on the other outcome.
I was surprised it showed a profit over the season and i'm thinking was he just lucky last season or is there any mileage in this method?
Any thoughts ?
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 11
|
By:
* I should have added the reason why he started laying the draw rather than 0-0. 1-1 or 2-2 was because he got caught out on a couple of 0-0's and 2-2's which ate into his profits.Laying the draw at around 3.75 was obviously not so damaging.
|
|
By:
Just lucky IMHO. Premiership MO and CS markets are tightly and consistently priced, so all he's doing by laying the draw and the two CS outcomes is effectively backing all the other Everton and Arsenal outcomes (including the ones subsumed into Any Other).
There would only be mileage in the method if there were reason to believe those scores were consistently over-priced. I can't see it personally. |
|
By:
Hi Longbridge , thanks for the reply. Although he was betting in Premiership games he was also involved in lower divisions in England and some European divisions. May be interesting to see the breakdown of profits for each division to see where he had a possible edge .
|
|
By:
Usually ignore "a friend of mine" posts.
But one thing I don't understand is how laying the draw is so much better than laying 0-0,1-1,2-2. There is no reason for the odds to be much better after allowing for the slight chance of 3-3 and 4-4. And it's always better to have all your bets on the one market. Longbride's post is spot on. |
|
By:
JML-Thanks for your comments.
He got stung on a couple of 2-2's early on in the season and he just felt more comfortable with laying the draw at smaller odds. I have no strong view on his method one way or the other . I haven't seen all his bets over the season and he hasn't told me why he picks the matches he does[ i wouldn't expect him too]. I would just be interested in people's thoughts on his method- it's not the way i bet on football anyway. |
|
By:
"Usually ignore "a friend of mine" posts"
Ye JML, I'd put the likelihood at about 90%, that this sort of post is in fact the person themselves who they are referring to. |
|
By:
Last season I had a few fun bets on Premiership teams repeating the same score, it seemed to work quite well in the first half of the season. 1-0 and 2-1 seemed to be the most popular.
|
|
By:
With regards to laying the draw rather than 0-0. 1-1 or 2-2 i would expect his mindset is if i lay the draw at say 3.75 and it ends up a draw i would pay out on that but also win 2pts on the other bets so in affect paying out at 1.75. He would then be thinking i can recover that in 1 game plus a bit extra. If he pays out on a 2-2 at say 17-1 then it would take him 6 more games to recover the loss.
I'm only trying to read between the lines with his betting but i could understand that way of thinking. |
|
By:
Just to point out again that this not my way of betting . I have been on Betfair since Jan 2004 and have no need to make up 'a friend of mine ' threads . If it was my way of betting i would say exactly that.
|
|
By:
Point of citing friend rather than themselves:
If the proposition proposed in the initial suggestion sounds a bit daft from a profit making point of view and he gets derided for suggesting it, the person can always distance themselves from criticism by pointing out it isn't them with this dodgy theory, no it is the friend. |
|
By:
Thin and Crispy
04 Aug 14 16:25 Joined: 11 Oct 00 | Topic/replies: 1,060 | Blogger: Thin and Crispy's blog Last season I had a few fun bets on Premiership teams repeating the same score, it seemed to work quite well in the first half of the season. 1-0 and 2-1 seemed to be the most popular. Who was the guy on here last season (and the season before, I think) who backed Arsenal to win EVERY game 2-0? Can't remember his name. Did all games, cups, etc. Was well in front at the end. |