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aye robot
22 Jul 14 20:01
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Date Joined: 17 Jan 08
| Topic/replies: 687 | Blogger: aye robot's blog
What happened there on that Ballinrobe market?

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Replies: 19
By:
aye robot
When: 22 Jul 14 20:12
I've been at this game for six years and I've never seen that before. Whether it was internally within Betfair or a private operator something went catastrophically wrong there. We all make mistakes but I can't believe someone could let that happen and not have safe-guards in place to prevent it.

I wonder whether someone confused the win and place markets but it's so easy to prevent that that it's hard to credit.
By:
Ghetto Joe
When: 22 Jul 14 20:13
Be a private individuals loss Betfair would have voided rather than let it cost them money. Think they took out Abou Ben then reinstated it guess that messed up someones algorithm
By:
aye robot
When: 22 Jul 14 20:23
I don't think that could account for it - The market was continually running at 200% and  the rogue bot (assuming that's what it was) was backing all runners. Actually - that makes me think maybe it was a book-making bot that went wrong, it would be quite easy to back instead of lay, then your back bets would push the book percentage up and that would keep you betting.
By:
gus
When: 22 Jul 14 20:25
incredible Robot.

My Bot (which is extremely fussy)  tried to Lay almost everything in the field inRunning, all of 'em under 2.5  and got matched on 4 of them @ 2.36. 2.34 2.5 (on the winner) and 1.86 Happy

more research needed imo !
By:
freddiewilliams
When: 22 Jul 14 21:05
only 4......unlucky gus
By:
gus
When: 22 Jul 14 21:54
yep, i do feel a bit hard done by freddie Sad

tho to be honest, I was just in from the pub,  and my first thought on looking at the screen was 'Oh cr@p, what have you done now Gus?'
By:
cdog
When: 22 Jul 14 23:01
What actually did happen on the Ballinrobe 7:50 market? (as I have been out all evening and didn't see the race or the market in running)
By:
Oceanfinance
When: 25 Jul 14 16:37
So someone does 6 figs and we're none the wiser. I wonder how much premium charge Betfair got from the race?
By:
Dr Syns Bed Chamber
When: 26 Jul 14 19:20
Hmm, didn't see any of that, hope it wasn't me. Off to check............
By:
DivideByZeroError
When: 27 Jul 14 22:36
Very interesting, shame that I missed this.

Looks like BF sent some info indicating Abou Ben was a non-runner but it wasn't and prices were still showing, which messed up the calculations of someone's bot, and someone with a decent balance before the event.

There are a couple of topics in the horse racing section on the subject:

http://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/30310523/i-think-bf-been-exposed-there
http://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/30310491/bot-balls-up-ballinrobe
By:
llama1
When: 29 Jul 14 11:33
Just for the record, the action in the Ballinrobe 19:50 market has been wildly exaggerated......

Watching the re-run on Fracsoft, NOT at one stage does the LAY Market go above 100%......Yes, I C Gold does trade mysteriously at 1.01 close to the end, but just for a few pennies. So all these claims that people were making thousands are just not true.

The give away is the Timeform page which shows the lows reached by the runners and only 3 horses, including the winner, trade under 2.0 for significant amounts.

http://form.timeform.betfair.com/raceresult?raceId=1.201.1140722.5

Some horses trade mysteriously below 1.10 just before the off, but again just for a few pennies.

Strange things were happening during this race, but only for a few pennies.

About £280K was MATCHED in-running, so no one lost their "Shirt" on this occasion......

But the stories make good reading......
By:
Oceanfinance
When: 29 Jul 14 15:10
280k sounds a lot in-running for a mickey mouse race at Ballinrobe.
By:
Oceanfinance
When: 29 Jul 14 19:53
The 7.45 at Galway tonight (16 runner handicap) only had 55k matched IR.
By:
aye robot
When: 01 Aug 14 15:14
It was a very strange market - the lay market almost never shows an over-round, but the over-round on the back side was huge for a very long time. That's extremely unusual.

Also, as has been said 280k is a lot for that market, I would normally expect that sort of race to match 100-150k in the run.

I've been doing this for a long time, all I do is bet in running on horse races and I post a couple of million transactions every year on about 10,000 markets (most horse races) but I've never seen a market go like that.

I didn't make a huge amount of money off it - less than a grand, but that's because my bots limit their exposure when things look weird. If I'd got stuck in I would have made a killing but strange looking markets don't usually turn out well so staying out is the best policy. I'd say someone lost between 50-100k, whether that's your shirt or not depends on who you are.
By:
freddiewilliams
When: 01 Aug 14 16:17
aye .....do u put any money into the daq?
By:
aye robot
When: 01 Aug 14 16:43
I'd like to but I've yet to turn a profit there so no. It's a viscous cycle.
By:
TameTheTiger
When: 02 Aug 14 12:13
*vicious Cool
By:
aye robot
When: 02 Aug 14 16:06
perhaps I meant easy to get stuck in.....Wink
By:
jas1968
When: 13 Jun 16 18:20
.
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