Jun 30, 2014 -- 2:24PM, TheBaron wrote:
I've been surprised by the number of times I've seen horses backed on Betfair at points below what is available with Bookies, creating an Arb for £100+. Why would someone do this? Some have been gambles and won but I doubt if you would profit by following all of them.I think that there are so few people operating in the early markets that false gambles can be created by bots jumping over each other to join in what they see as a gamble.
Certainly the bot issue is an issue when there's lack of liquidity, but not sure it matters much for the heavier moves later.
Jul 1, 2014 -- 12:07PM, roadrunner46 wrote:
always found the horses that are not gambles the most interesting, the ones that win at big prices and are not backed in the markets.
That could be because the horse is actually slow bt manages to run the race of his life.
Jul 3, 2014 -- 2:25PM, King of Dubai wrote:
Going purely from odds, which horse has the best implied chance to win??4.0 into 2.8or1.9 out to 2.8???
Thats a good (tricky) question there
Of course they should have the same chance, however, we often read price change into chance. Maybe that's not always right of course.
Aug 6, 2014 -- 6:48PM, stu wrote:
Interesting post Shapeshifter - just wondering, was there a reason to pick the 25% figure for movement, or just a choice?
Years ago, put up some flags at 15% through 40% around 12 minutes before the off. Found 25% was the best to get some margin to trade out unless I felt it was a lay then would go in-running on the decision.
This was years ago and the market movement has changed. Haven't done it daily for a while.