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going to try out a system for fun startinh with a mythical bank of 200 points
The plan is to review the days racing and pick out 2 good jockeys at each meeting. I will then dutch both of their mounts if the combined profit is evens or above. Obviously both jocks have to be riding in the same race.
Have looked at this evenings meetings and have picked mccoy and schofield at worcester and hughes and kirby at kempton
winners calculated at sp
1st race at worcester was a losing selection
dutched 4 and 5
3 points
lost
next race 6.15 kemp
The plan is to review the days racing and pick out 2 good jockeys at each meeting. I will then dutch both of their mounts if the combined profit is evens or above. Obviously both jocks have to be riding in the same race.
Have looked at this evenings meetings and have picked mccoy and schofield at worcester and hughes and kirby at kempton
winners calculated at sp
1st race at worcester was a losing selection
dutched 4 and 5
3 points
lost
next race 6.15 kemp
Show More
A decent start to the system which 32.85 points profit
I may modify a few things along the way. Could maybe use some progressive staking instead of martingale but will run with it for time being. Also considering if I reach 5 points then I may stop betting for the day and repeat the next day.
Start bank
200
New bank
232.85
Profit/Loss
32.85
I may modify a few things along the way. Could maybe use some progressive staking instead of martingale but will run with it for time being. Also considering if I reach 5 points then I may stop betting for the day and repeat the next day.
Start bank
200
New bank
232.85
Profit/Loss
32.85
intrestingly had i used 3% of the bank for each bet my profit for this evening would have been 17.73 points
will be concentrating on the chester meeting this afternoon
the jocks are ryan moore and paul hanagan
the jocks are ryan moore and paul hanagan
Tricky race......very open ...but TELESCOPE might be one to win.
GL with thread.
GL with thread.
FAV wins ....no surprise really as strong pattern in results etc etc
ended up at the hospital 2day so couldnt continue with system today. Will hopefully be back 2mro or next day
PugMunter, you will never win money supporting
best jockeys, they are usually over bet in the
market, GL though.
best jockeys, they are usually over bet in the
market, GL though.
the proof will be in the pudding ken
going to trial this until end of month
going to trial this until end of month
very tough race coming up but a winner would be massive here
Mythical bank likely to be halved after 5.00 race....very very competitive with many good jockeys riding,....of your 2.....INTRINSIC might go close to winning.
My 2 guesses are Commanche and Trader Jack........
GL with race.
My 2 guesses are Commanche and Trader Jack........
GL with race.
cheers dfc and yourself
martingale looks to aggresive for this system
a slight progressive staking plan could be the way to go.
Or even just a percentage of the bank each bet
martingale looks to aggresive for this system
a slight progressive staking plan could be the way to go.
Or even just a percentage of the bank each bet
Are you using SP odds for dutching? If so BF odds should be a bonus when wins
using sps just to make it easier. Altho i have managed to get bigger prices than sp when placing the mythical bet
do u know the sp of slip sliding away in that last race? Atr and sporting life on showing the 1st four
do u know the sp of slip sliding away in that last race? Atr and sporting life on showing the 1st four
BF SP odds and SP odds were :-
Intrinsic 17.5 / 11
Slip Sliding Away 20 / 17
WD
Intrinsic 17.5 / 11
Slip Sliding Away 20 / 17
WD
With BF odds on winner being 6.5 points higher than SP odds.....then the stake of 29.14 would give you additional profit of 189.41 points...
Of course commission needs to be adjusted on profit.
Of course commission needs to be adjusted on profit.
if i decide to play with real money then will certainly be using betfair
just using sps so that its in black and white and can be verified
the system will generate even more profit using betfair
will continue doing martingale for time being but i am thinking its far too risky
im not a greedy person. Even 5 points profit a day would be pleasing
just using sps so that its in black and white and can be verified
the system will generate even more profit using betfair
will continue doing martingale for time being but i am thinking its far too risky
im not a greedy person. Even 5 points profit a day would be pleasing
i am just seeing how far it will go
as i mentioned previously i will prob change to a fixed percentage of the bank or use a slight progressive staking plan
as i mentioned previously i will prob change to a fixed percentage of the bank or use a slight progressive staking plan
Hi Pug. I'm interested to see how well dutching the jockeys will do for you. How do you go about picking your 2 jockeys for each day though?
GL
GL
hi cata
i just pick the 2 best jockeys riding at the meeting that day.
If i am confident that both jockey are riding well at the time then i am happy to go with them.
i just pick the 2 best jockeys riding at the meeting that day.
If i am confident that both jockey are riding well at the time then i am happy to go with them.
altho my 2 jocks may be different to someone elses.
Its all about opinions
Its all about opinions
yeah that's what i was wondering, how you came to decide on what two jockeys to choose. i was also curious would you take any other factors into consideration e.g the draw before choosing on the 2 jockeys you are going to select?
i dont look at the draw at all
only other possible factor i can possibly look at is the jockeys record at the particular course
if they have a poor record then thats a negative
but for now i will just blindly back both jocks and just see how successful it may be til end of jthe month.
Afterwards i may refine a few things to help generate more profit.
Good jockeys are always going to ride winners.
For this system we concentrate solely on the jockey and not the horse
only other possible factor i can possibly look at is the jockeys record at the particular course
if they have a poor record then thats a negative
but for now i will just blindly back both jocks and just see how successful it may be til end of jthe month.
Afterwards i may refine a few things to help generate more profit.
Good jockeys are always going to ride winners.
For this system we concentrate solely on the jockey and not the horse
if you read through all my posts u will realise there is 'effort' involved
i am reviewing my system and calculating potential profit using an alternative staking plan.
So there is a lot of effort involved. I am constantly looking at it and thinkin of ideas.
Thanks
i am reviewing my system and calculating potential profit using an alternative staking plan.
So there is a lot of effort involved. I am constantly looking at it and thinkin of ideas.
Thanks
PM1 -
As it is a relatively "simple" method you are using to make selections, it is likely the VALUE in odds will generally be diminished when the popular "good" jockeys chosen for day get a winner. kenilworth indicated this earlier on thread.
There are so many FACTORS taken into account when using a complex "system" to rate a race, and as there are so many "good" JOCKEYS my "system" does not allocate points for a named jockey, but it does take account of claims in weight made. If the "system" ends up rating 2 or more horses to have same points in ratings, then the JOCKEY FACTOR would be relevant to arrive at a top rated horse.
The horse HUGHES won on , INTRINSIC I believe it was called, had some strong FACTORS in its favour for that particular race on the GOING and for distance and type of race at this time in season. There were numerous "good" JOCKEYS in the race and it is likely most of them would have won on that horse had they been given chance to ride it.
The HORSE, and FACTORS other than the JOCKEY are far more relevant to finding VALUE in odds, and if you just go by "good" JOCKEYS at a course for selections, then the VALUE probably is likely to be diminished due to punters who back the JOCKEY.
As you are also DUTCHING 2 selections, you are further diminishing the VALUE by spreading staking over 2 horses. INTRINSIC had better chance of winning IMO, due key factors being more in that horse's favour than the other horse selected. If you can filter it down to 1 horse and back that one to WIN/PLACE or EW, then this has a better chance of working than the method chosen on thread.
It is an interesting thread though.....and from your posts you are well aware that your method is not suitable for MARTINGALE progression in staking, as very likely bank wipe out will happen. So toning down your staking and filtering it down to 1 horse selection might well be very successful for you.
GL with thread.
As it is a relatively "simple" method you are using to make selections, it is likely the VALUE in odds will generally be diminished when the popular "good" jockeys chosen for day get a winner. kenilworth indicated this earlier on thread.
There are so many FACTORS taken into account when using a complex "system" to rate a race, and as there are so many "good" JOCKEYS my "system" does not allocate points for a named jockey, but it does take account of claims in weight made. If the "system" ends up rating 2 or more horses to have same points in ratings, then the JOCKEY FACTOR would be relevant to arrive at a top rated horse.
The horse HUGHES won on , INTRINSIC I believe it was called, had some strong FACTORS in its favour for that particular race on the GOING and for distance and type of race at this time in season. There were numerous "good" JOCKEYS in the race and it is likely most of them would have won on that horse had they been given chance to ride it.
The HORSE, and FACTORS other than the JOCKEY are far more relevant to finding VALUE in odds, and if you just go by "good" JOCKEYS at a course for selections, then the VALUE probably is likely to be diminished due to punters who back the JOCKEY.
As you are also DUTCHING 2 selections, you are further diminishing the VALUE by spreading staking over 2 horses. INTRINSIC had better chance of winning IMO, due key factors being more in that horse's favour than the other horse selected. If you can filter it down to 1 horse and back that one to WIN/PLACE or EW, then this has a better chance of working than the method chosen on thread.
It is an interesting thread though.....and from your posts you are well aware that your method is not suitable for MARTINGALE progression in staking, as very likely bank wipe out will happen. So toning down your staking and filtering it down to 1 horse selection might well be very successful for you.
GL with thread.
Last thought for morning.......Why not allow the market to decide which 1 of 2 you back?
So far the lowest SP odds one has won for you between the 2 horses chosen for race.......this FILTER is a fairly reasonable way to narrow it down to 1 horse for a race.
G M the noooooooooooooooooooooo
So far the lowest SP odds one has won for you between the 2 horses chosen for race.......this FILTER is a fairly reasonable way to narrow it down to 1 horse for a race.
G M the noooooooooooooooooooooo
appreciate that dfc thanks
we were nearly in trouble at ascot as we wese putting on a nearly a quarter of the bank and that just doesnt appeal. I am thinkin of a progressive staking plan. Increase stake by a point if we hit a loser
i will try this 2mro.
Would be farm more comfortable doin this.
Again i wil say that its the jockey we are interested in, not the horse.
Cream always rises to the top
we were nearly in trouble at ascot as we wese putting on a nearly a quarter of the bank and that just doesnt appeal. I am thinkin of a progressive staking plan. Increase stake by a point if we hit a loser
i will try this 2mro.
Would be farm more comfortable doin this.
Again i wil say that its the jockey we are interested in, not the horse.
Cream always rises to the top
As one that follows racing extensively and will take on three meetings a day and find bets, here are some aspects to keep in mind:
- There are riders who win but, at the end of the day, there are some horses they cannot get improvement out of. So despite strong records at a track or in form, they still have to work for the wins.
- Some jockey's are retained, some are paid per ride, etc. They need to work. So come a Monday after a long weekend of rides, they will fill their day with rides on horses that will pay the bills.
- Jockey's will be called by trainers they have good records with to take a horse out that perhaps the trainer has lined up two or three races in three weeks, even over different distances, and wants the jockey to take the horse out and gauge the performance. There is no deceit in this. Just part of an ongoing strategy by a trainer.
Nothing mentioned in this post appear in the stats.
Where I find success is when a jockey is in form at various tracks and has atleast been in the mix on recent races at a track, then this is a plus.
There are no click and win systems on betfair.
- There are riders who win but, at the end of the day, there are some horses they cannot get improvement out of. So despite strong records at a track or in form, they still have to work for the wins.
- Some jockey's are retained, some are paid per ride, etc. They need to work. So come a Monday after a long weekend of rides, they will fill their day with rides on horses that will pay the bills.
- Jockey's will be called by trainers they have good records with to take a horse out that perhaps the trainer has lined up two or three races in three weeks, even over different distances, and wants the jockey to take the horse out and gauge the performance. There is no deceit in this. Just part of an ongoing strategy by a trainer.
Nothing mentioned in this post appear in the stats.
Where I find success is when a jockey is in form at various tracks and has atleast been in the mix on recent races at a track, then this is a plus.
There are no click and win systems on betfair.
will be following paul hanagan and graham lee at doncaster
Something to consider......
If doing 2 meetings....should each meeting not stand on own staking plan?
There is no link between performance of JOCKEYS at 2 different meetings.
If doing 2 meetings....should each meeting not stand on own staking plan?
There is no link between performance of JOCKEYS at 2 different meetings.
dfc for the purpose of the system i will stick to the 1 staking plan
the idea being that at least one of the four jocks will have a winner
the idea being that at least one of the four jocks will have a winner
There are no click and win systems on betfair.
That is totally untrue.
That is totally untrue.
I have Please Let Me Go EW before the two non-runners. Graham Lee's best ride on the day. GL
unlucky there
looked like lee was getting close up until a furlong out
looked like lee was getting close up until a furlong out
Okay. Are we all in agreement we did everything we could?
I'll make the call.
Time of Death - 5:40 PM
Somebody inform the other threads.
I'll make the call.
Time of Death - 5:40 PM
Somebody inform the other threads.
end of this particular system
it hasnt worked
looking at various other systems and will post them here
it hasnt worked
looking at various other systems and will post them here
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