Undern's next challenge

Far too ambitious undern....why not £400 to £1,200......then bank profit and start again say with £500.

The way you bet ....numerous bets etc....you can make £800 today!

Well there you go ... bitterly disappointed in myself .... built up the bank to around £930 in a nice fairly controlled day but then pushed a bit to try and hit £1K .... but then the big hit came in that I got notified about someone I know who has missed out on a Commonwealth Games selection .... despite getting better results than others that have been selected ..... gutted ... and while typing up some tweets proceeded to lay (with some abandon) favs in the greyhound and effectively busted the bank .... yep sure did ..... my own completely stupid fault.

I have loaded the challenge bank with another £600 to make it a round £1K (starting bank) .... will carry on and see how I get on but must admit I have been slightly thrown by my mates non-selection ....

Yeah, I don't see how requiring a 10x multiplier makes any sense. That's a hell of an increase Undern is going for, and something of a far-off get-out price.

But you see DFC, that's why I took slight issue with you saying Undern should start with £300. I just don't think a 3x multiplier on that is enough to satisfy Undern. £3K, on the other hand, he might see as an adequate return.  £1K to £3K ought to be quite possible every other time for him.  £300 to £900 or £1.2K, on the other hand, may not interest him, and would have him charging away as quickly as he could - with predictable results.

I am afraid the £1K bank for this challenge has now completely gone .... amazing how distractions can be a great big negative .... but then again it is my own fault ..... Challenge Over.

Probably will play on here (in private) and perhaps look to start a new challenge on Tuesday .... when I have got rid of the family and have some peace and quiet. Bit gutted by this evening but hey go in heavy you can lose heavy ...

Challenge Summary:
No comment .... well other than "it could have been so good ... it could have been wonderful" .... but hey this challenge is over ...

Aussie: Greyhound Racing: £389.25 | Horse Racing: £11.53 Total P&L:  £400.78

UK: Cricket: £15.85 | Greyhound Racing: -£1,377.08 | Horse Racing: -£68.86 | Tennis: £29.10 Total P&L:  -£1,400.99

Greyhound Racing    Showing 1 - 6 of 6 markets

Market    Start time    Settled date    Profit/loss (£)
Greyhound Racing / AnPk (AUS) 17th Apr : R11 515m Gr5
17-Apr-14 13:44     17-Apr-14 13:45     17.11
Greyhound Racing / WPrk (AUS) 17th Apr : R10 520m Heat
17-Apr-14 13:40     17-Apr-14 13:41     117.19
Greyhound Racing / SPrk (AUS) 17th Apr : R7 715m Gr5
17-Apr-14 12:11     17-Apr-14 12:13     21.21
Greyhound Racing / APrk (AUS) 17th Apr : R8 520m Final
17-Apr-14 12:08     17-Apr-14 12:09     61.50
Greyhound Racing / AnPk (AUS) 17th Apr : R5 515m FFA
17-Apr-14 11:38     17-Apr-14 11:39     145.69
Greyhound Racing / AnPk (AUS) 17th Apr : R4 600m Final
17-Apr-14 11:14     17-Apr-14 11:15     26.55

Horse Racing    Showing 1 - 1 of 1 markets

Market    Start time    Settled date    Profit/loss (£)
Horse Racing / Ball (AUS) 17th Apr : R5 2200m Pace M
17-Apr-14 11:30     17-Apr-14 11:35     11.53

Cricket    Showing 1 - 1 of 1 markets

Market    Start time    Settled date    Profit/loss (£)
Cricket / Delhi v Bangalore : Match Odds
17-Apr-14 15:30     17-Apr-14 18:47     15.85

Greyhound Racing    Showing 1 - 20 of 23 markets

Market    Start time    Settled date    Profit/loss (£)
Greyhound Racing / Hove 17th Apr : OR 475m
17-Apr-14 21:40     17-Apr-14 21:43     -229.19
Greyhound Racing / Hove 17th Apr : OR 515m
17-Apr-14 21:24     17-Apr-14 21:28     -267.00
Greyhound Racing / Henl 17th Apr : A6 460M
17-Apr-14 21:15     17-Apr-14 21:19     30.16
Greyhound Racing / Hove 17th Apr : OR 695m
17-Apr-14 21:06     17-Apr-14 21:09     -70.00
Greyhound Racing / Henl 17th Apr : A7 460m
17-Apr-14 20:58     17-Apr-14 21:01     36.03
Greyhound Racing / Hove 17th Apr : OR 695m
17-Apr-14 20:50     17-Apr-14 20:56     -250.00
Greyhound Racing / Newc 17th Apr : OR 480m
17-Apr-14 20:47     17-Apr-14 20:50     14.55
Greyhound Racing / Henl 17th Apr : A8 460m
17-Apr-14 20:42     17-Apr-14 20:45     48.76
Greyhound Racing / Hove 17th Apr : OR 695m
17-Apr-14 20:34     17-Apr-14 20:37     242.50
Greyhound Racing / Newc 17th Apr : HC 640m
17-Apr-14 20:31     17-Apr-14 20:35     19.56
Greyhound Racing / Hove 17th Apr : OR 515m
17-Apr-14 20:18     17-Apr-14 20:22     -300.00
Greyhound Racing / Hove 17th Apr : OR 515m
17-Apr-14 20:02     17-Apr-14 20:05     -200.00
Greyhound Racing / Henl 17th Apr : A10 460m
17-Apr-14 19:54     17-Apr-14 19:57     -276.00
Greyhound Racing / Hove 17th Apr : OR 285m
17-Apr-14 19:46     17-Apr-14 19:49     -155.70
Greyhound Racing / Henl 17th Apr : A10 460m
17-Apr-14 19:39     17-Apr-14 19:43     155.23
Greyhound Racing / Crayfd 17th Apr : S7 540m
17-Apr-14 18:04     17-Apr-14 18:07     19.40
Greyhound Racing / Crayfd 17th Apr : A7 380m
17-Apr-14 17:47     17-Apr-14 17:50     27.71
Greyhound Racing / Romfd 17th Apr : A2 400m
17-Apr-14 14:47     17-Apr-14 14:54     18.65
Greyhound Racing / Sund 17th Apr : A5 450m
17-Apr-14 12:18     17-Apr-14 12:20     22.03
Greyhound Racing / Sund 17th Apr : A7 450m
17-Apr-14 12:04     17-Apr-14 12:05     20.21

Greyhound Racing    Showing 21 - 23 of 23 markets

Market    Start time    Settled date    Profit/loss (£)
Greyhound Racing / Sheff 17th Apr : A6 500m
17-Apr-14 11:42     17-Apr-14 11:45     -176.92
Greyhound Racing / Sund 17th Apr : A3 450m
17-Apr-14 11:34     17-Apr-14 11:36     18.94
Greyhound Racing / Sheff 17th Apr : HC 280m
17-Apr-14 11:28     17-Apr-14 11:30     -126.00

Horse Racing    Showing 1 - 20 of 25 markets

Market    Start time    Settled date    Profit/loss (£)
Horse Racing / Aque (US) 17th Apr : R6 7f Mdn
17-Apr-14 20:55     17-Apr-14 21:08     -175.55
Horse Racing / Tipp 17th Apr : 1m4f Hcap
17-Apr-14 19:35     17-Apr-14 19:40     16.49
Horse Racing / Aque (US) 17th Apr : R3 6f Mdn
17-Apr-14 19:22     17-Apr-14 19:32     46.12
Horse Racing / Tipp 17th Apr : 1m1f Hcap
17-Apr-14 19:05     17-Apr-14 19:10     -50.00
Horse Racing / Ripon 17th Apr : 1m Mdn Stks
17-Apr-14 17:25     17-Apr-14 17:29     48.50
Horse Racing / Newm 17th Apr : 7f Mdn Stks
17-Apr-14 17:10     17-Apr-14 17:17     14.55
Horse Racing / Chelt 17th Apr : 3m1f Hcap Chs
17-Apr-14 17:00     17-Apr-14 17:07     12.12
Horse Racing / Ripon 17th Apr : 5f Hcap
17-Apr-14 16:50     17-Apr-14 16:52     48.50
Horse Racing / Newm 17th Apr : 1m1f Grp3
17-Apr-14 16:40     17-Apr-14 16:44     21.82
Horse Racing / Tipp 17th Apr : 7f Stks
17-Apr-14 16:35     17-Apr-14 16:39     -122.00
Horse Racing / Chelt 17th Apr : 3m Hcap Hrd
17-Apr-14 16:25     17-Apr-14 16:32     12.12
Horse Racing / Ripon 17th Apr : 1m Hcap
17-Apr-14 16:15     17-Apr-14 16:19     12.12
Horse Racing / Chelt 17th Apr : 3m1f Hcap Chs
17-Apr-14 15:50     17-Apr-14 15:58     33.95
Horse Racing / Ripon 17th Apr : 1m2f Hcap
17-Apr-14 15:40     17-Apr-14 15:43     24.25
Horse Racing / Newm 17th Apr : 6f Grp3
17-Apr-14 15:30     17-Apr-14 15:38     16.97
Horse Racing / Chelt 17th Apr : 2m5f Hcap Hrd
17-Apr-14 15:15     17-Apr-14 15:21     26.22
Horse Racing / Ripon 17th Apr : 6f Hcap
17-Apr-14 15:05     17-Apr-14 15:11     14.55
Horse Racing / Newm 17th Apr : 1m2f Stks
17-Apr-14 14:55     17-Apr-14 15:11     121.25
Horse Racing / Vaal (RSA) 17th Apr : R6 1200m Hcap
17-Apr-14 14:45     17-Apr-14 14:54     13.46
Horse Racing / Chelt 17th Apr : 2m5f Listed Chs
17-Apr-14 14:40     17-Apr-14 14:46     -210.00

Horse Racing    Showing 21 - 25 of 25 markets

Market    Start time    Settled date    Profit/loss (£)
Horse Racing / Ripon 17th Apr : 6f Hcap
17-Apr-14 14:30     17-Apr-14 14:32     21.82
Horse Racing / Newm 17th Apr : 1m Stks
17-Apr-14 14:20     17-Apr-14 14:26     18.88
Horse Racing / Chelt 17th Apr : 2m1f Listed Hrd
17-Apr-14 14:05     17-Apr-14 14:10     24.25
Horse Racing / Ripon 17th Apr : 5f Mdn Stks
17-Apr-14 13:55     17-Apr-14 13:59     -66.82
Horse Racing / Newm 17th Apr : 5f Mdn Stks
17-Apr-14 13:45     17-Apr-14 13:52     7.57

Tennis    Showing 1 - 1 of 1 markets

Market    Start time    Settled date    Profit/loss (£)
Tennis / Dimitrov v Ferrer : Match Odds
17-Apr-14 12:14     17-Apr-14 14:06     29.10

You seem to look for excuses when you lose. I don't get it.

Was it really a case "oh crap my mate hasn't qualified for the commonwealth right in that case i'm going to lay some favourites on the greyhounds." Do you honestly believe that you would have bet differently and not lost your money if you hadn't found out about your mate.

When you loaded up with the extra 600 did you bet with the intention of trying to make up the 400 you had just lost or did you bet in exactly the same way as if you had started a new challenge and not lost any money.

Undern,

before having another challenge (translated, gamble), reread your own words from all the threads.  YOUR OWN WORDS

a) distractions: one time betting while looking at your watch with a picnic hamper being packed.  Another time, no sleep.  Another time, your own words., 'too many distractions'. Another time, not feeling well (a tooth ache, I believe).  WTF.  If you were a football manager, would you let this guy play?

b) faves: you are blindly laying faves.  Bookmakers don't do that.   That is a headline created by lay tipsters.  You are simply gambling odds on when you do that.  There is no value or edge.  If you are going to lay faves, then you might as well dutch two or three horses that you think will beat it.  From personal experience, the satifaction of doubting an odds on horse then looking through the runners and finding the 4 or 5F that beats it to the line is 10 times more satifying. Value leads to profit.  Not strike rate.

c) You doubled your bank.  Stop at 600?  Take 30 quid, go to the pub and say 'job well done'?....no, "I need to get to £1,000".  Why? The goal was £4,000.  The £1,000 was nothing.  The 900 (not 400) lost was something. 

d) Dogs: your words "But I like dogs".  This comes down to the 'quick fix' of a 30 second gamble.  But every pence you made on dogs you have given back and more.  Simple.  It is a waste of time.  Value time.    

e) you can't walk away with a win or a loss. You don't even seem to take a break when you are up or down.  Not even doubling your bank makes you stop.  I'll leave it to you to decide what this means since I'm only able to interpret what I see through the posts. 

f) you reloaded while in the wrong frame of mind.  You had just lost over 900 pounds (not 400, you had 900).  And you reloaded with more.  That simply means chasing.


My only advice:

a) rent the movie 'Ground Hog Day' with Bill Murray.  Until he changed his ways, he was caught in a cycle.  But, in the end, got the girl.

A lot of sense in there. Value, though, isn't a matter of laying the fave or not laying the fave. You can find value by laying faves, just as you can find it by backing genuine shots dismissed by the betting public.    However, you can't just lay fave after fave and believe that you're getting value.

I scrutinise almost every US horse race (we're talking 50-80 races here), and I typically find just two or three a day where laying the fave gives you genuinely strong value. Many are going off at around fair value, and a good chunk are borderline. But once you take into account the commission rate, and allow for a certain margin of error, the vast majority of faves are simply not lays.

Now, maybe Undern is just an exceptional punter who, somehow, can find value in laying the fave in almost every race. But somehow I doubt it. Undern needs to work out what sports and what situations within each sport he's good and isn't good at. He then needs to have some sort of target to aim at.

He's been posting these challenges for several years now. And these challenges crash into the dust with just as much frequency as they always did.