General Betting
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16 Feb 14
22:09
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Date Joined:
16 Sep 02
IF 1.01 was the only avaialble bet in running, would you win over the long run laying 1.01 at even stakes or,conversly.
Back at 1.01 when only that price was avaiable in running.(even stakes)
Who would win? the layer or the backer or neither.IN the long term.
Or could the answer be neither?
Back at 1.01 when only that price was avaiable in running.(even stakes)
Who would win? the layer or the backer or neither.IN the long term.
Or could the answer be neither?
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Replies: 15
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only one way to find out chap....
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About a month ago there was a race at night on the all weather where the announcer was calling out the wrong horse.
The horse he was calling out wasn't the horse he was suggesting it was I.e. the runaway leader, but another quite different horse. The name of the horse the announcer called out got backed down to 1.01,thousands were bet at that price, but horse was never ever at any point in the top ten |
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if you backed at random at offered odds i think you may as well wander down the casino
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Watching on tv on delayed coverage (pictures are always a few seconds behind the live event) would be an unfortunate choice of betting on, 1.01, bets in play in my opinion.
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If your at the track or at the event possibly, in these situations when the contest may even be finished, the idea may possibly have legs.
This year in a golf contest they were still offering odds for about a minute after you could quite clearly see on television the event had finished. |
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no one has yet addressed the question, who wins backer or layer,from views expressed i guess layer.
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betfair would win
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if your first in the queue to back at 1.01 u are a winner in horse racing. even 1st in, your are a loser at every other sport.
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I think I'd rather lay than back at those sort of odds; for instance i have noticed from my own observations very short priced favorites in running get beaten on particular tracks than is normally expected.
On Saturday I backed a tennis player at slight odds against before the contest started my man went into 0.02 in running but still lost. Querry in the Davis cup a couple of weeks ago against a British guy was 1.01 in running but lost. Its my opinion that there's a lot of over reaction in tennis odds in running. |
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As Gnasher says
The first money bet on 1.01 in a race is the best value for a layer as it could be a horse 3 lengths up with half a furlong to go .That might get best once in 40 or 50 times . The last money layed @1.01 in a race will be against 3 lengths up with 25 yards to run , maybe lose once in a 1000 . Not sure though that the same doesn't apply in football . Seems to me that at least 3 or 4 1.01s get beat every season in the premier league , out of maybe 200 games where 1.01 is matched before the last few seconds . Again the ones that go down are usually when it hits 1.01 with a good while to go ; 2-0 up on 80 mins type situation for a fav . So again the early layers profit |
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this is not really a puzzle. there is no instrinsic value in one particular price on the odds ladder.
you could equally ask the same question about even money, or 1.43, or 1.92 shrewdies would win, everyone else wouldn't |
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A couple of months ago i thought about laying 100/1 shots on here for small stakes (£20 liability), got fed-up after about 6 bets chasing 20p a time. My main motivation was to have an interest and not suffer too many downers of a loser, it didn't have a great level of sophistication about it but then it would probably have taken a while for a loser to kick in
Most people like me aren't ever going to gain an income out of Betfair to the vast majority of us they are 'just having an interest bets' breaking even is a goal to be coveted. |
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laying 100/1 shots on here when the reality is its roughly 50/1 on course is a sure path to the work house.
The big hit will hit sooner or later to wipe out minimal profits and far more. |
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DStyle answered the question.
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