General Betting
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If i bought 1.3 for £10, then aimed to sell at 1.29 for a green book, what is the percentage chance of it never hitting 1.29?
Also, how on earth did you work it out ?
Also, how on earth did you work it out ?
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Replies: 9
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Not a clue here, mate.
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Impossible to answer as depends on how liquid the markets are and what sport/volatility and whether you mean in play too.
Regardless for that level of profit you'd need it to work virtually everytime so to me it would be equivalent of backing long odds on everytime - all seems fine till you do your nads. |
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You should be aiming for a better than (buying odds)/(selling odds) percentage. Otherwise you'll lose in the long run.
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I worked it out as .76% chance of the price not hitting 1.29 and 99.24% of it hitting it.
My calculation was based on it being a random strategy and so breaking even if you ignored commission. If you bet £100 at 1.3 and layed off at 1.29 you would make 77 pence. 77 pence * 130 = £100 (near enough) so for every 1 time it didn’t happen there would be 130 times it did. 1/131 = .76% (event not happening) 130/131 = 99.24% (event happening) If you did some more exact rounding it might affect it slightly (it isn’t exactly 77 pence profit), but I couldn’t be bothered. Hope that's of some use. |
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UA, if you backed £100 at 1.30 and layed it off at 1.29 you make £1, in my view.
Why 0.77 pence what am i missing plz? |
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If you green all round, it's 77p profit all outcomes. The £1 win comes from the £1 event-wins/ £0 event-loses option.
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Quite brilliant UA and Andriy, could you turn your attention to my topic, Puzzler for brainboxes, nearbye plz.
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Good effort UA
i make it 1/134 =78 percent |