General Betting
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Thats just how i see it, always seems one game stumps you up in accas, the law of average tells me that if you break even in gambling in a day or a week , month or year you have probably done ok, it aint meant to be easy.
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Some say how well they are doing but id say the majority are behind the 8 ball, seems when man utd or barca lose lots of ppl banks take a hiding...........i bet on a match in mexico earlier on over 1.5, started well a goal in first moments of match , sorta sat back waiting for second goal and the profit, never happened, not betting on mexican rubbish again, it aint meant to be easy.
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Their is a way of winning online its called arbitrage, buy some books on it.
All your trades will be winnings ones albeit small profit margins. |
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Yeah that's right, just breaking even over a large number of bets is already something of an achievement.
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Arbing is slow but profitable.
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My account in the last three months, this is made of hundreds of bets, stands at plus 29p.
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its a big effort to achieve that much but at least you aint lost.
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I can make a profit on online poker though! In my opinion it is possible to win on that medium if you have a fair grasp of odds, though in my experience not Betfair poker, because you seem to get a lot of shruddies on here.
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If you are betting accas you'd be doing well to get back 80% of your money
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ive been trying the accas, we call them multis in nz, if i pick , 5 i get 3 or 4 winners, if i pick 7 i get 4 or 5 right, so the 80 percent theory id say probaly fair call, be nice to get 7 fron 7 , with trebles doubles etc but thats why the cashout option being available is good.
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i usually try the accas in the english matches,i like them when they allplay at same time, would just prefer allbets to win
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I remember reading a few years ago that bookmakers had a pretty much 90% take on yankees, I have no way of knowing whether that was an accurate figure, but the implication was that they were a money cows for the bookies.
I have never really won any money on Betfair and I have a reasonable grasp on odds. Its my belief that consulting this forum can give you an unrealistic sense of how difficult it is to gain a consistent profit using the exchange. Your up against 5% commission people with fast pictures Computer programmers Betfair.... skimming the recreational punter on to its other site. People making thousands of bets a day to skim 0.1% profit on them On football they surely can't beat 105% on premiership matches, if you take commission into account; I think if you shopped around you'd do better with bookies |
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another way you can look at things is that bookies like the recreational punters, but then the rich guys with more funds or bigger wins they dont want them , bad for business
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They love the rich guys with more funds !
It's the way people bet rather than the amounts they might win that the bookies scrutinize . Someone can be way up on his account , but the bookies might conclude from the way he bets that he will give it all back and then some. |
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just to reafirm my theory, last week i deposited 30 whole wopping dollars in our local betting agency, since then ive placed over 50 bets, on mainly place bets on horse, small stakes, the odd bet on goals or head to head on tennis, im exactly where i started, havnt lost havnt won, getting ones nose in front aint easy, probably good luck if one was ahead.
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or just luck if one was ahead.
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My account now stands at minus £45 so maybe the plus 29p at the weekend wasn't as bad after all.
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I've said this many times but I'm largely ignored.
 But all you need to do is lay at less than the bookies SP. |
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That's like saying all you need to do is just back winners and don't bother backing losers; ye but how?
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Is it? I thought it meant getting value and that small edge makes a huge difference.
use 2.5% ratchet stake to lay in running all uk favs 'at the off' for about 15% of their bookmaker SP eg 3.0 = 2.7 about 95+% will be matched and then lose. At the end of the month if you lay every one you will be about 400 points up. Well according to the results anyway. Any one brave enough to try? feel free to ignore me if you want, most people do.  |
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Somebody calculated that 93% of runners trade at a shorter price in running but this figure includes horses who are only a couple of percentage points below the Betfair SP, which might still be equal or above bookmakers SP.
I suppose this isn't really the question though, the important thing here must be of the favorites who lost their races have enough traded at below 15% bookmakers SP to make it profitable or are you just laying a large amount of winning favorites? Your theory seems to rest on the fact that in running prices are in some way inaccurate, have you any evidence of this? The whole idea seems a bit simplistic to me if it worked then why isn't everybody doing it already. |
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455 Kemp put a lay of 1.8 on Clondaw Banker BSP 2.07 see if this works
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Well theres one in
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As No Moves says , it works fine when they get beat , but you will lay every single winning fav and won't get matched on enough of the losers to make up the difference
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My post is based on past results going back over 10 years.
I expect that the higher priced favourites are the ones that don't get matched so often, so lay them at SP. The short ones you could lay at say -20% eg the difference between 3.0 is 2.7 or 2.6 But over the long haul its the small differences that add up. Plus youre ratchet staking which gives your edge leverage. You do get a small number of bets unmatched but the percentages I gave iron them out. But its sooooo boring. Click win, click lose, etc etc. when you get bored you do silly bets, and when you back that 1.01 loser 'for fun' you blame the method when in fact it was your own stupid fault. Been there, currently wearing the T shirt. But if you can sit there 4 hours a day and keep to the rules then give it a go. |
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Steamship - bookies SP not Betfair's. never lay horses at Betfair SP you'll go broke.
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I was just reading the thread when I tried it on that 1 race 10% lower than Betfair S/P. I rarely lay horses and it was a bit of fun on a race I had no interest in.
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