General Betting
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What is the probability of getting a bet matched if the odds are 1.5 but you want 2.10 instead. Although i'm sure this is very rare, how often would this actually be traded? And how often could you get this value? Because that's what it is essentially.
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Replies: 13
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STOP DRINKING NOW!
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Unlikely you will get an informative reply to above DK......as far too vague a post......
If HORSES you are referring to then ..... I suggest you check out TIMEFORM "CARDS/RESULTS" on BF.......and do your homework on horses odds IP..... Your post is not clear whether you want pre-race odds or IP...........I suspect you want former....and as favourites before a race can drift, then will happen more than you might believe.... If you also check Sporting Life RESULTS ...... they can indicate what horse opened at at SP , then how odds moved to off.... If IP odds ....then probably the majority of horses will drift in running.....again check RESULTS on TF , as they indicate MAX ODDS IR....etc etc GL |
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EG
2.40 CHELT race yesterday ... 6th 31 11 Keep On Track (IRE) E Bolger 6 10-1 Ms N Carberry 3/1f Tracked leaders, led 11 out, headed 6 out, weakened 2 out opened 11/4 touched 100/30 £2000-£600 £1050-£350 £900-£300 |
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Per TF
LOWEST ODDS IP...BF SP..ISP....PLACE odds 2.1 4.8 / 4 (20%) 1.99 |
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Somebody posted a few months ago that 93% of runners on a previous day had been a bigger price in play than at SP (this figure of course would include every single loser).
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I'm talking about before the game goes inplay, and football specifcally.
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rare before ko imo, the price changes pre ko would reflect change in the team perceived chances. So if you got matched at 2.1 when you think its a 1.5 shot then its most probably you who has the "wrong price". Unless you have an edge of course.
You could have the odd fat fingers mistake, but changes will be gradual overall with most activity in the few hours before kick off, team news injures that might affect the line ups. which are still a reflection of perceived chances |
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Yeh i know what you're saying. The more i have bet the more i have found that the only way to win is to find value. ie a 1.5 shot @ 2.0. Some people would say 1.7 for a 1.5 shot is value but to me it really isn't, because at the end of the day the probability for both odds are similar. It's the dream of being able to find odds of 2.0 when the real probability is 1.2 which is what you want hah!. I did have a good bet the other day though, not on betfair but on paddypower where the majority of bookies priced @ 1.56 and i got it at 2.10. Paddy power were the only bookie offering the odds so if every bet was like that you'd be a millionaire in no time.
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You might get 2 a year Dr kim. If you can put up with the remaining 363 days of non activity then fair play to you.
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how often can you get on at a price significantly bigger than most/average bookies might be a better question then
 . I have no idea but I think its probably rare to |
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You're right but you won't notice a big difference in your winning/losing streaks. For instance if i was to flat bet @ odds of 1.5 over 100 bets only about 60% of them would win. Even if i got odds of 1.60 i would still probably only win 60% of those bets. If i got evens though 60% would hit the mark for profit.
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from what people say on here, if bookies see you at hitting them when they are out of line i think they restrict/ban you. others will know better
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