Is it still possible to make a living from Betfair?

Premium Charge, falling liquidity and BF diverting all the casual money to their own sportsbook has finished it for me.

This site is a shadow of what it used to be imo.

no its sh1t and not worth the hassle,betfair greed ruined the site for me.best to get yourself as many bookmaker accounts as possible and punt at the best price available.i do ok at that

it cant be done

if you are experienced and know the markets well already then it is possible to make a living. if you are starting it is quite difficult to learn as most markets now are very tight and efficient. to give an example, the market where i learned most of what i know about betting is super botted now that i doubt i would learn the same from the current environment.

and you are up against experienced market makers

yes your learning curve now will probably wipe your bank out. The ones dominating the markets are dominating because they are better than the rest. Be like learning chess by paying Magnus Carlsen for a game. He doesnt say anything or explain anything just beats you. So dont play for money until you think you have good chance of beating him!

Of course you can make a living, depends what you are doing...look at this fella!

http://caanberry.com/?page_id=18

It is possible to make a living. But it's not glamorous, it's lonely, it can be very stressful and there's no guarantee.

Play small and develop an edge, no point going full time without one.

Nov 24, 2013 -- 4:04PM, Darlo Bantam wrote:

It is possible to make a living. But it's not glamorous, it's lonely, it can be very stressful and there's no guarantee.

this guy is spot on..

Perfectly possible.

Nov 24, 2013 -- 4:04PM, Darlo Bantam wrote:

It is possible to make a living. But it's not glamorous, it's lonely, it can be very stressful and there's no guarantee.

i think that depends on you. you can be disciplined and arrange your schedule and staking to fit your work-rest balance. it gives you more freedom to do what you want with your life

Of course you can make a living, depends what you are doing...look at this fella!

http://caanberry.com/?page_id=18

That's me by the way, of course it's possible and you'd be a fool to think you have to be a rocket scientist to do it. However as some have already said their is risk attatched... might not all happen straight away. But then again it wouldnt be impossible to the right person...

Well you do a splendid job there Caan, and why anyone would put it down making a living the way you do I have no idea, I do a crappy job 10 hrs a day, dont like most of the people I work with....I would love to be able to hit your heights! and lonely? you find the right balance, as you see from caan's blog he isnt sat there 20 hours a day, I would play golf and tennis in the morning (added bonus of quiet in the weekdays) and fit the trading in, + with profits like that nice holidays would follow etc...

Op pops up with his 1st and only post in over 10 years of being on here, then within a few hours there's a link to a subscription service which coincidently gets bumped up again in bold italics by the guy that runs the service the very next day! 


Sharp minds

lol

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Nov 25, 2013 -- 10:53AM, henok wrote:

Nov 24, 2013 -- 10:04PM, Darlo Bantam wrote:It is possible to make a living. But it's not glamorous, it's lonely, it can be very stressful and there's no guarantee.i think that depends on you. you can be disciplined and arrange your schedule and staking to fit your work-rest balance. it gives you more freedom to do what you want with your life

That's what I like about it.

To be honest, the "freedom" can easily be turned into an obsession without a strong discipline. Can you manage that then it´s a very nice life.

Agreed Swedebank...

Op pops up with his 1st and only post in over 10 years of being on here, then within a few hours there's a link to a subscription service which coincidently gets bumped up again in bold italics by the guy that runs the service the very next day!

I found this thread as traffic increased to the site when doridoru posted initially so thought it would be rude not to post... If you think it's im happy for Betfair to verify im genuine.
As others have said, its not always a quick transformation to riches but to the original poster it's quite possible most definately.
Unsuprisingly those with the negative attitude towards it are the ones that don't get all that far. I genuinely wish everyone success with their betting though. :)

Caan

Traffic increased to your subscription site, the op makes one post in ten years then disappears. Op aptly names 'traderswinall' Your site is all about trading. Job done?      Don't doubt you're genuine but I do doubt you don't know who the op is :)

In my opinion when Betfair introduced the premium charge and then the super premium charge they never took into account that they were now making the decision to attempt to go full time on here much riskier. Presumably for every person that made it going full time numerous others would have failed. Now liquidity is non existent and Betfair are wondering "what's happened?". People with a vested interest will tell us premium charge payers are 'bad customers' for Betfair and they can do without them. Well that hasn't proven the case looking at the dire state of liquidity. You need people to go full time to generate the liquidity, some will make it some will fail.

To sum up, you'd be mad to go full time on here when they can change the premium charge rules against you at any moment.

Ahh Jamesdean, i now see your point. However i genuinely haven't a clue who the OP or doridoru are, its not a subscription.. there is a small guide.

I know what your saying too oceanfinance but then again it depends on what your other options are in comparisson. Each to their own.

Ocean good post. We need the new lads  to go comm. free for at least a few months on all or selected markets to get the cash/accounts.

YES HIRE A LARGE TREE AT A RACETRACK NEAR THE WINNING LINE AND TAKE A LAP TOP WITH TELSTAR CONNECTION AND BET IN RUNNING ,
PS DO NOT SIT THERE WHEN THERES THUNDER AND LIGHTENING

If you can win on here and make a living, you can probably make the same money more easily doing something else.

Even as a trader, you would likely find a way to make the forex or commodities or options markets work for you in a context where there's no risk of paying pc.

And most of the things you could do would be more socially useful than betting.

JamesDean I am just a fan of people like Caan, he isnt in it to rip off anyone or sell loads of guides, he loves what he does and I love him for that!

Yeah like trade for the banks aksari1, help the people of the world out eh? most jobs are 5hit and dont benefit anyone...so dont give me that trading for a living isnt for a good cause crap!

How much is a living ?

A decent living is the possibility to afford to drink Lagavulin every night.

Nov 24, 2013 -- 11:43AM, 1.01 Layer wrote:

Premium Charge, falling liquidity and BF diverting all the casual money to their own sportsbook has finished it for me. This site is a shadow of what it used to be imo.

v good point ;)

doridoru
JamesDean I am just a fan of people like Caan, he isnt in it to rip off anyone or sell loads of guides, he loves what he does and I love him for that! SurprisedExcited

Lol, doesn't he run trading courses with that joker Jack Birkhead and sell an ebook for £40 on his site?

GET A PROPER JOB AND GET ON WITH YOUR LIFE

THERES ALREADY TOO MANY DAYDREAMERS WHO THINK THEY CAN WIN X FACTOR OR MAKE A LIVEING ON BETFAIR

surely for a bit of a hobby - making 200 quid a month is ok

good spot James dean. Subtle spam advertising post.

If you can win on here and make a living, you can probably make the same money more easily doing something else.

____________

not true - it depends how your brain functions . many people  are only good at one thing

If your friend made a living on here for last 10 years, he is now paying 60% tax on winnings and has been effectively turfed out of our ecosystem. Maybe making spare pocket money if his spirit is not broken.

It cannot be done sadly

It can be done,fortunately .

artie wins a fortune by backing Thommo's tips

Whoa big aitch.

No-one seems to have maxed out the 'always lay Liverpool' strategy yet.  Pretty sure that one must have worked since the 90s started.

I think becoming profitable on Betfair is a bit like getting reverse swing in cricket.  You have be bowling to get in the game and you have to be working hard on the ball.  Might not work out at all, but if it does the rewards are great.

My ball does not reverse yet but I'll keep polishing away. 

It's re-assuring to remember that most of the money that funds the world's gambling markets comes from people who decide to bet because a team is good at home, player x has lost 3 of 3 meetings versus player Y or a stable has won two previous races on the day.

correct - watch the football markets - correct scores - how the odds react to a player sent off or a goal or a substitution -

Watch how a top 4 team trades in the half hour before a game , playing a team in the bottom 4. The opps are endless but without discipline and an edge you are doomed .

It's easy

The only people who are saying its not possible to make a living on here are the losers.

It's 100% possible to make a living on here.

Some people want everything handed to them on a plate, the information is out there, research research and then more research.

not possible.

Well said Roker_Park, spot on mate.

ditto..of course its possible, im not for one minute saying i make a living on here but i know plenty who do

Yes of course it is possible, the only people who say that it isn't are the ones don't understand the meaning of the word "possible".

The important questions are "Can I make a living from Betfair?" and "what's my back-up plan if I can't or if it stops working?"
Even if you have no idea what the answer to the first question is make sure you know the answer to the second one before you give it a serious attempt.

The answer to the second one is to have enough savings to last a couple of years without an income . Money in the bank is the only safety you can get when doing this.

depends what you call a living ?

good point..somebody on the dole, who makes 30 quid a week on here on top of his giro is making a living, relatively speaking

It's way, way harder than it used to be.  One of the basic laws of economics is you can't make a supernormal profit in the long run, unless you have barriers to entry.  Betfair appeared, lots of people were making money from it, and other people wanted that money (other punters, + Betfair themselves).  So now if you want to clean up on certain markets you are up against teams of PhDs, or teams of people sitting courtside betting with high tech devices.

"It's way, way harder than it used to be."
I agree but also maybe I'm just less disciplined. I certainly wouldn't recommend that anyone who has the intelligence to make a good income from betfair does that full time, they could probably make more elsewhere in a more stable job. If you've a large gap in your CV doing this and then either BF or the government or just someone doing what you do better does a move that removes your inncome ... well that's not good.

Allowed BOT use  makes it harder and opens the window for corruption...

Bots is the biggest threat to the markets. Totally killed set winner in tennis and totalpoints markets in basketball. I would pay my PC gladly if the bots were removed.

If bots are so profitable,why don't you get one ?

would you trust a bot with your bank?

i haven´t said that they are profitable, just that they kill the markets in more than one way.  Visually because you cant watch that jumping figures for very long. Try one total points market in basketball and you will see what i mean.

Totally killed set winner in tennis


yep, all the sub markets in tennis have pretty much died

+1 to that. But not sure you can blame bots entirely for that. In-play there's absolutely no money in them, not even bot money.

True, money is gone and bots is just one of the factors.

Feel your pain swedebank.
Problem is with bot driven markets, like basketball points, everyone knows that the bot prices are crap. So people don't look anymore, any manual layers left go through hell competing against a leapfrogging £15 bot for non existent money.
High profile euroleague games can go entirely unmatched in-play.

Competing against a bot in a total points market is pure pure agony.... Very sad when a former good market goes down the drain. Wonder how runs that fecker...

I wouldn't mind so much if they put the same prices up for £500/£1000, then at least it might stimulate some interest, but annoying the hell out of everyone for £15 is a bit sad.

I have mailed bf about it in frustration but of course they have no plans to do anything. When the lay bot first appeared in the moneyline markets last year i thought that things can go any worser but they sure can. That one is a friend if you compare them.

Of course you can still make a fairly decent living on here. Always the way that the profit gets harder to come by. Just got to work harder than the next person. There are still enough errors, crazy bots, plunges to keep people in clover.

It is possible, however p/c is slowly but surely killing liquidity, as most sport specific traders who carry reasonable size banks bet elsewhere to avoid P/C on their recreational bets, as only a clown would pay minimum 22 percent to a maximum of 60 percent on any profit made from sporting punts whilst losing 100 percent of loses

That doesnt make sense PTTT - losses offset pc winnings, so it is largely irrelevant to recreational bets.

it is possible but it is getting harder, and i believe that the harder it gets the more it is likely to be cause of betfairs demise. betfairs unique selling points aspects of betting which can probably help make a profit for the punter.  their target customers are the ones who are a little experienced and who aspire to make a profit. and as such,word of mouth advertising should be the main strategy of their marketing campaign. just advertising better value( which should theoretically click with potential customers) might raise interest for a few weeks to months but not more than that. what will sustain the interst for more than few weeks is the hard evidence that it might be possible to make a small profit with a little bit of effort. people will hear about it without fancy and expensive tv adverts if it was possible to make money. but the reality on the markets doesnt bode well for this strategy.

gerard 12 Dec 13 20:03 Joined: 28 Aug 02 | Topic/replies: 1,589 | Blogger: gerard's blog
That doesnt make sense PTTT - losses offset pc winnings, so it is largely irrelevant to recreational bets.

There are lots of people who have paid PC in the past and started struggling more recently though.


Let's say I win £500k and pay £150k PC.
Then I lose £300k. The only way I get the PC back is if I win at the level where you pay PC in the future. That can't be taken as a given. In fact, I would even suggest that if you become a very big player, paying PC becomes less likely.

Maybe after this I win £1Million but pay £500k commission. I never get that 'overpaid' PC back.

I don't dispute that - but if you have always paid PC and always will (in as much as you can be sure of these things) then you would not be "a clown" as PTTT suggests, to make recreational bets.

Investor - PC should be paid on withdrawls



the way its paid currently is grossly unfair ,win one week lose the next

Intriguing suggestion. However, I've had periods where I might make two withdrawals a week for a few weeks and then not make another withdrawal for at least a month. And that is because of winning/losing runs.

i win for a yr, get my account up to xxxx thousands, then do a money switch with a 'mate' (no pc) in a quiet market ...who cant believe his luck.

betfair get nothing bar the 2nd lot of com. pc payer saves 15%...  And as a result that wont happen.

As a small time gambler / trader / ferengi flith haha ...whatever....
Id much rather see a sliding scale of pc (weekly basis is fine to me) with a weekly allowance built in, into a sliding scale of profitable weeks. 

if betfair said.... look 25k per year is an ok amount to take out of the system without doing much damage and gave an allowance of 500per week over which i would get charged pc... at a set out rate... then as a small timer...id be much more happier.

win 1000 a week.... 500 allowance..... 500 charged at 25k+ xxx rate.......
win 2500 a week.... 500 allowance..... 2000 charged at 100k+ xxx rate.....

cant see it happening.... but i would like to know tho... what betfair class as someone who is a drain on the system?  is it someone taking out 10k per year?  20k per year? 50k per year?   anyone with a profit?

recreational bets are / should be placed with the view to win, well that is what i do. The point therein, is why would you place transactions in the knowledge that if you are fortunate enough to win you will be paying between 22/60 percent P/C, when you can place these transactions elsewhere at 0 / 3 percent commission on your winnings at relatively similar odds.

whilst assuming most P/C clients are most likely to have the largest banks and are placing their recreational transactions elsewhere, that inevitably is impacting expontentially on less liquidity in many markets.

The clown reference admittedly was a bit strong, however it is a question of choice

PTTT:

whilst assuming most P/C clients are most likely to have the largest banks and are placing their recreational transactions elsewhere, that inevitably is impacting expontentially on less liquidity in many markets.

Two points:

1. PC payers are, by definition, winners. Getting set "elsewhere" is not easy for winners.

2. Maybe Betfair has decided that there are 2 types of liquidity. "Smart" liquidity and "dumb" liquidity. Maybe they've really thought about this and decided that the dumber the liquidity, the more attractive the exchange will be to the dumb punters. Or perhaps I should say, the not-quite-smart but not-completely-dumb punters, such as myself

Then, on the other hand, my second point may be way off the mark, because they've confused the issue by bringing in the Sportsbook and promoting that to the newcomers rather than the exchange.

I dunno. The powers that be in Betfair land have got me baffled

no