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sheppy123
28 Oct 13 18:51
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Date Joined: 28 May 12
| Topic/replies: 2,522 | Blogger: sheppy123's blog
Phew! I just hate it when this happens...

OK, like a lot of people I keep trying different systems. They've all failed so far but hey, I'll just keep trying till I've no money left in the bank!

Anyway, this isn't a system but this morning I noticed that "On His Own" was running at Naas. I thought that with it being the fav to win the 2013 National, and the fact Ruby was onboard the price would contract before the off, so I got on it @ 8.
About an hour later it was 9's which pissed me off, so for psychological reasons I bet on it again. And then to my absolute horror I found it @11's. Now this is how dumb I am. It could've been injured for all I knew but I just had to back it again. Things were getting very psychological! And then just before the race it was about 17! I backed it 5 times altogether! My intention was always to lay it off a few notches down, but now I just wanted my money back. Fortunately I did, but I'm hoping that I've learned a lesson from this??? Phew! Where do you draw the line!?!

So can somebody tell me why this horse drifted so much???
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Report BJT October 31, 2013 2:28 PM GMT
I am not a boxer bilbo.  Or a fighter of any kind.  Not sure where I said I was...
Report DFCIRONMAN October 31, 2013 2:35 PM GMT
What Factors Affect Price Movement On The Betting Exchanges?
    Form
    Horse condition & behaviour in paddock before race
    Change in weather conditions
    Going change
    Jockey changes
        People in the know (owners/trainers etc.)
==================================================================================================================


The above are the main factors......whether ....or weatherTongue Out...you like it or not......
Report BJT October 31, 2013 2:39 PM GMT
And you have people in the know listed there too. 

Starting to realise you are a few stubbies short of a slab.  You want to argue against my opinion of multiple factors could be the cause of a drift including people in the know, by claiming there are multiple factors including people in the know?

I may have had you wrong.  Seems you are actually arguing my point for me.  Not sure how I missed it....


CrazyCrazy
Report DFCIRONMAN October 31, 2013 2:41 PM GMT
MAIN FACTORS are still the ones in bold.......................


Whether it's a drifter or steamer - whatever they may be - is irrelevant: no bet should be placed unless you are certain it represents value. And that's something you need to decide for yourself.
Report BJT October 31, 2013 2:43 PM GMT
Yes, but you put them in bold.  lol...

http://www.juststarthere.com/

They aren't in bold from your source....


What Factors Affect Price Movement On The Betting Exchanges?

    Form
    Horse condition & behaviour in paddock before race
    Change in weather conditions
    Going change
    Jockey changes
   
People in the know (owners/trainers etc.)











Punters acting on this information causes the prices to fluctuate on the betting exchanges. Significant price fluctuations often indicate that something has happened to improve/reduce the chance of a horse winning.

The JustStartHere price movement service allows users to easily follow where the money's going on the betting exchanges and clearly identify the steamers and drifters in all UK and Irish horse racing betting markets.



   
Key Features Of The  JustStartHere Service:     

   


All UK and Irish racing covered - follow every race live



Betting exchange prices & price comparisons updated automatically every minute

    Full results service
    Access to the Cherry Picks horse racing ratings
    ***New Tips Feature*** Tips from all the major daily UK and Irish newspapers and racing publications collated and displayed on the live price movement pages


Colour coding and star ratings to help identify the steamers and drifters in the market



Historical price movement data  available to download (great for testing and analysing betting approaches)



Access to detailed daily racecards containing information on every UK and Irish race (going, prize money etc.) and every runner (trainer, jockey, recent form, no. days since last race, weight, course & distance wins etc.)



Subscription

Subscription to the service costs just £6 per month via PayPal. There is no long-term contract - subscribers can cancel or reactivate their monthly membership payments direct from their PayPal accounts at any time.

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They all seem to be in italics there....  rotflmfao
Report BJT October 31, 2013 2:45 PM GMT
Only 6 pounds a month.  Wonder if they will sue you for plagiarism to get more than your subscripion payment out of them....  LaughLaugh
Report DFCIRONMAN October 31, 2013 3:01 PM GMT
The BOLD is the practical stuff....................and all that counts for someone like sheppy to grab hold of.....


Your stuff is so convoluted....and intangible for someone like sheppy to grab hold ofGrin


I suspect a rainer is possibly considering action on some of your comments BJT re F horse!!!!!! Tis you that is more likely to be sooooooedddddddddddddddddDevilLaugh
Report DFCIRONMAN October 31, 2013 3:08 PM GMT
LISTEN BOY likely to drift...and Danandy to shorten.....watch this space......................Cool
Report BJT October 31, 2013 3:12 PM GMT

Oct 31, 2013 -- 4:08PM, DFCIRONMAN wrote:


LISTEN BOY likely to drift...and Danandy to shorten.....watch this space......................


Listen Boy WAP 2.70, SP 2.67 Danandy 7 and 6.8SP......


Well done.

Report DFCIRONMAN October 31, 2013 3:16 PM GMT
Just a lucky guess........Devil
Report DFCIRONMAN October 31, 2013 3:20 PM GMT
3.20

Lalandia interesting one....may well shorten IR..
Report DFCIRONMAN October 31, 2013 3:25 PM GMT
3 you winner.....no surprise.....lightly raced from good stable...

Only 1 point movement IR on L.....Cry
Report BJT October 31, 2013 3:25 PM GMT
The sun is going to shine hard as soon as the race starts?  Guess a pesky cloud got in the way and ruined your plans...
Report BJT October 31, 2013 3:26 PM GMT
Will that cloud get out of the way for the next race so we can get on the shortener?
Report DFCIRONMAN October 31, 2013 3:27 PM GMT
Time of day relevant as well.........................don't forget that!
Report DFCIRONMAN October 31, 2013 3:28 PM GMT
3.30 with in between going ...makes guess harder...........................PASS.
Report DFCIRONMAN October 31, 2013 3:29 PM GMT
WIND at CLONMEL and on this threadDevil
Report BJT October 31, 2013 3:29 PM GMT
Oh damn.  Does that mean the price is going to go sideways?
Report BJT October 31, 2013 3:31 PM GMT
Turf Trivia 14.9 WAP 18.8 SP.  What happened?  Was there a solar flare?
Report DFCIRONMAN October 31, 2013 3:33 PM GMT
3.40 ARTIC WINGS likely to drift
Report BJT October 31, 2013 3:37 PM GMT
Did the cloud move over the form book?
Report BJT October 31, 2013 3:38 PM GMT
You need a refund.  That 6 pounds could be used to print your own off.
Report BJT October 31, 2013 3:41 PM GMT
Bennys Mist WAP 18.5 SP 23.

Weather in its name.  Should have guessed.
Report DFCIRONMAN October 31, 2013 3:46 PM GMT
Never in doubt!Devil
Report DFCIRONMAN October 31, 2013 3:48 PM GMT
3.50 ...fav likely to threaten to win ...so likely to shorten IR
Report BJT October 31, 2013 3:48 PM GMT
What wasn't?  Has the race been?  Couldn't find Artic Wings anywhere in the field.  You must be betting somewhere else...
Report DFCIRONMAN October 31, 2013 3:49 PM GMT
ARABIAN STAR drifting out .....mat come back in again IR
Report BJT October 31, 2013 3:49 PM GMT
In approximately 3 minutes from now, there will be cloud movement, shortening the favourite odds.  I like it.  I am in.
Report DFCIRONMAN October 31, 2013 3:50 PM GMT
3.40 race was SIMPLY WINGS ....oooopssssssssssssssssssss
Report BJT October 31, 2013 3:51 PM GMT
Whoops.  Went the wrong way then.  Arctic Ben was actually the one that drifted.....

Not even any good at aftertiming?  Weird.....
Report DFCIRONMAN October 31, 2013 3:54 PM GMT
SIMPLY WINGS was clearly the selection ...as I gave the correct time..........
Report BJT October 31, 2013 3:54 PM GMT
Dried the track out good and proper.  Must have been some flare...
Report BJT October 31, 2013 3:55 PM GMT
Arctic Ben was in the same race.  Clearly schmearly...
Report DFCIRONMAN October 31, 2013 3:55 PM GMT
What are you moaning about ....the 2 shortners won...and a high odds one shortened to 12.50......and SW drifted after post from 11.5 to 13.50.....eventually to 1,000 IRLaugh

G'day...
Report BJT October 31, 2013 3:58 PM GMT
Was a dead heat?  And I am not moaning at anything.  I am learning a bunch.  Your weather is all up to siht.  Drifters everywhere....
Report DFCIRONMAN October 31, 2013 4:01 PM GMT
15:50 Lingfield Park
Full result
1st     2 Modernism     3/1 f
                SHORTENED TO WINCool
2nd     11 Red Warrior (IRE)     10/1
3rd     8 Hector's Chance     8/1

    Winning TrainerD Simcock
    Winning JockeyJ Crowley
    Runners 12 ran
    Non runners10, 13
    Withdrawn14
    Distancesnk, 1
    Result

15:40 Stratford
Full result
1st     7 Mart Lane (IRE)     5/1
2nd     4 Simply Wings (IRE)     10/1  prior to race drifted from 11.5 to 13.5 after posting .....and LOSTCool
3rd     6 Harry Hunt     15/2

    Winning TrainerD Newland
    Winning JockeyS Twiston-Davies
    Runners 9 ran
    Unpl. FavThe Druids Nephew (IRE) 13/8 F
    Distances3, 2 ½
    Tote Win £5.90
    Pl £1.70,£3.40,£1.50
    EX £60.10
    SF £51.97
    Tricast £371.06
    Swingers 1&2 £5.70, 2&3 £5.60, 1&3 £8.90
    Weighed In

15:30 Sedgefield
Full result
1st     6 Cavite Eta (IRE)     25/1                        NO SELECTION GIVEN
2nd     12 Think Its All Over (USA)     5/2 f
3rd     3 Talkin Thomas (IRE)     11/4

    Winning TrainerF Murtagh
    Winning JockeyH Brooke
    Runners 12 ran
    Distances½, ½
    Tote Win £40.20
    Pl £9.20,£1.70,£1.80
    EX £131.70
    SF £87.01
    Tricast £237.20
    Swingers 1&2 £18.50, 2&3 £3.20, 1&3 £22.40
    Weighed In

   

15:20 Lingfield Park                  lalandia shortened prior to racing....after posting.
Full result
1st     14 Speckled (USA)     10/1
2nd     3 Livia's Dream (IRE)     100/1
3rd     12 Phiz (GER)     8/1

    Winning TrainerC Appleby
    Winning JockeyS Sousa
    Runners 13 ran
    Non runners4
    Unpl. FavPhaenomena (IRE) 11/4 F
    Distances1 ¾, hd
    Tote Win £11.80
    Pl £3.40,£14.20,£1.90
    EX £960.60
    SF £802.59
    Swingers 1&2 £54.30, 2&3 £118.20, 1&3 £12.60
    Weighed In

15:10 Stratford
Full result
1st     7 Danandy (IRE)     5/1              Shortened to WINCool
2nd     8 Cornish Ice     16/1
3rd     1 Listen Boy (IRE)     6/4 f     DRIFTED IR and LOST

    Winning TrainerP Hobbs
    Winning JockeyT O'Brien
    Runners 8 ran
    Non runners9
    Distances9, 1 ¼
    Tote Win £7.20
    Pl £1.80,£3.60,£1.20
    EX £107.60
    SF £70.87
    Tricast £174.54
    Swingers 1&2 £10.00, 2&3 £7.70, 1&3 £3.40
    Weighed In
Report DFCIRONMAN October 31, 2013 4:03 PM GMT
They drift after I postTongue Out
Report BJT October 31, 2013 4:08 PM GMT
You are an absolute clown.  rotflmfao

3:10 neither moved when you suggested they would.  Lalandina you said would in running, can't claim pre race.  Simply Wings, which you didn't even pick, had a WAP of 12.21, so hardly a drifter and Modernism was a favourite that won.

Either way, the weather must be causing havoc today, since that is the main reason a horse will drift or shorten....
Report DFCIRONMAN October 31, 2013 4:11 PM GMT
2 winners and you moan from 3 shortners given....Tis you that are the clownTongue Out
Report BJT October 31, 2013 4:18 PM GMT
So explain to me then, what part the weather played in the price movement then.
Report sheppy123 October 31, 2013 4:52 PM GMT
Just signed in... 70 new messages!!! I'll be back in about 55 hours when I've read them all!Laugh
Report BJT October 31, 2013 4:54 PM GMT
Don't bother lol.  Most of them are from gooses that have no idea what they are talking about...  Wink
Report DFCIRONMAN October 31, 2013 5:02 PM GMT
GOING suited the two winners as well as having a number of factors in favour......


One of them won on a AW course.....as it happens RAIN probably would not have lessened it chances today .....HIGH WING may well have stopped it...so conditions suited AW winner.

GOING suited winner on NH, as well as other factors in favour. As it was a NH race type.....had it RAINED heavily, then it probbaly still would have won. Had the sun been shining and it was WINDY, then going may well have changed to GOOD TO SOFT......or GOOD in this country.....and this probably would have given it a far less chance of winning today......As it happened the GOING stayed SOFT ....so was fine for horse today.


LISTEN BOY chances of winning would have increased had GOING dried out.....never happened , but market still made it favourite...they got it wrong as usual.Devil
Report DFCIRONMAN October 31, 2013 5:02 PM GMT
HIGH WIND ....
Report BJT November 1, 2013 12:00 PM GMT

Oct 31, 2013 -- 6:02PM, DFCIRONMAN wrote:


GOING suited the two winners as well as having a number of factors in favour......One of them won on a AW course.....as it happens RAIN probably would not have lessened it chances today .....HIGH WING may well have stopped it...so conditions suited AW winner.GOING suited winner on NH, as well as other factors in favour. As it was a NH race type.....had it RAINED heavily, then it probbaly still would have won. Had the sun been shining and it was WINDY, then going may well have changed to GOOD TO SOFT......or GOOD in this country.....and this probably would have given it a far less chance of winning today......As it happened the GOING stayed SOFT ....so was fine for horse today.LISTEN BOY chances of winning would have increased had GOING dried out.....never happened , but market still made it favourite...they got it wrong as usual.


You don't even know what you are arguing any more.  Now you are arguing that if a horse likes a certain type of going, it is more likely to run well?

If the conditions didn't change, that is all irrelevant.  The market has already taken into account what the weather is doing, what it is likely to do, what the ground conditions are, and what they are likely to do.  The market will react to said conditions, when the unexpected happens.

For the going to be the main reason horses drift and shorten, means the unexpected happens, in most races, every day.

For the example you mention, LISTEN BOY, you state, the conditions DIDN'T change nor was it expected too.  The race was run as expected.
In this race, I have 4 horses that traded significantly higher than their weighted average price.
Arctic Ben
Bennys Mist
Rouge Et Blanc
Harry Hunt

Arctic Ben, had an WAP of 11.95.  It was trading at 14s+ around start time. Beaten 9 lengths.
Bennys Mist had a WAP of 18.45.  It was trading at 23+ around start time. Beaten 55 lengths.
Rouge Et Blanc 28.94 trading at 36.  PULLED UP
Harry Hunt 10.01 trading at 12.  3rd beaten 5.5 lengths.

Now there are 4 significant drifters in this race, where the going played zero part.


The 2 winners.
Modernism.  WAP of 4.54, trading there at start time. 
Danandy.  WAP of 7.1 trading at 7s. 
There was no move for either of them.


Danandy, for the record, at its previous start, shortened significantly.  About a minute before jump time, had a WAP of 6.82 where it was trading at 5.9.  WAP came into 6.63.  Fair move on it.

The conditions for that day.
GOING: GOOD (Good to soft in places; 7.7). Weather conditions: sunny; 12 degrees.

For a start, I am not sure when sunny has ever equalled 12 degrees, but another story.  The move on Danandy, happened on a day when the weather was consistant, the track condition was unchanged for all races.

Yesterday, his price was unmoved, yet the track condition was:
GOING: SOFT (Good to soft in places) changing to SOFT after Race 3 (2.10) changing to SOFT (Heavy in places) on the Hurdle course after Race 4 (2.55). Weather conditions: Overcast.

It won race 5 and the track conditions had changed officially twice previous to that, from good to soft, to soft, to soft to heavy.


The race there was a move for him, he was pulled up, after big money came for him, after constant weather/going.
The race there was no move, he won, after the track got significantly heavier as the day went on, obviously suiting him, yet no move. 


Please explain how this completely goes against what you are trying to argue with me.

I will have a go.  The market already had taken into account the likely condition of the track for his race.  Nothing unexpected happened.
The big move with constant going, and zero movement with big changes.  Sort of knocks your theory right on the head.  Why you have included these as your examples to prove your point are beyond me.  They do the exact opposite.


Happy punting.

Report BJT November 1, 2013 12:29 PM GMT
And for the record the race where Danandy shortened, there were 8 starters:
Ringa Bay WAP 4.15 trading 4
The Rockies 5.96/6
Western King 5.11/5.1
Rocky Bender 11.55/13
Raduis Bleu 15.05/15.5
Grey Soldier 20.42/21
Michigan Assassin 20.66/19.5
Danandy 6.63/5.9


As you can see, the only real move in the race, was for Danandy.  He didn't shorten due to a big drifter.  The others were all pretty spot on, just shared the drift required to bring Danandy in about 15%.....

It wasn't the weather that caused it, and it certainly wasn't to make up for the move of another.  To back this up even further, the traded volume ratio went up from 106% to 110% in the last minute.  There was only 1 other horse that increased in the final minute Michigan Assassin from 78-83%.  Was significantly more money for those 2, and they were the 2 that were trading shorter than their WAP but MA was only about 6% shorter whereas Dan was about 13% shorter.


Thanks for trying, but I think I am going along ok....WhoopsWhoops
Report DFCIRONMAN November 1, 2013 1:00 PM GMT
I never posted the shortners/drifters to PROVE a point re GOING CHANGES being main reasons for DRIFTING or SHORTENING.

It is yersel that is against this opinion....not me.

Most of your points are irrelevant to the fact that I put up

LISTEN BOY as likely drifter ......it went out to 1,000BF............finished 3rd...never won.

DANANDY ....was posted as likely to shorten.....it did ...it WON so 0 at finish.

BTW ....the odds did go the way I said they would at time of posting them.....

LISTEN BOY was sitting at 2.66 and went out to 2.92 before coming back in again at the off.

DANANDY was 6.8 when I posted it would shorten...it shortened to 6 bf just after I posted it.

I was not going on about the GOING at time of posting them.......and as there was no GOING CHANGE for this race prior to off, then I was just indicating what was likely to happen to both horses AFTER I POSTED. You might have thought the post was linked to GOING CHANGE and how this affects odds......however, it wasn't.

DANANDY was the likely winner........and perhaps I should have said that on post.....however, I was convinced it would probably win ( though never said that) on GOING as stated by SL......and it did shorten prior to off and IR.....so where did I go "wrong"????Tongue Out
===========================================================================================

LALANDIA was posted as MAY  shorten IR ......it did shorten after I posted by 1 point......but not IR.....so got that one correct at time of post ...but the MAY shorten IR was "wrong".....

Once again I was not making the suggestion it would shorten based on GOING CHANGE .....as there was no GOING CHANGE......The likely 3 yo won the race.....so I "guessed" that one wrong....so what!
==========================================================================================

The 3.40 race I did get name wrong when posting SIMPLY WINGS likely to drift....which it did after I posted from 11.5 to 13.5....before coming back in again.....it also went out 1,000 as never won! I did post correct time for race...and clearly it was the horse I meant to post ....only one with WINGS in name.

IT did threaten to win...but drifted out to 1,000 BF ....so where did I go wrong?
============================================================================================


3.50 race.....Modernism     3/1 f ....I said was likely to shorten IR ...WON.......It did shorten from 4.5 BF to 4.2 after I posted....and did shorten to 0 IR ....so again where did I go wrong?


I also indicated ARABIAN STAR may shorten IR in same race.....it finished last ...but did shorten from 40 BF to 12.5 shortly after off........so where did I go wrong?
======================================================================================



2 winners and 1 clear shortener from 4 selections likely to shorten ain't that bad ...is it?


On the 2 drift selections ....SIMPLY WINGS and LISTEN BOY went out to 1,000 IR.....so perfect guesses there......Terrible guessing ...isn't it!Devil

==================================================================================


You state ..." The market has already taken into account what the weather is doing, what it is likely to do, what the ground conditions are, and what they are likely to do.  The market will react to said conditions, when the unexpected happens."


So why do 66% favourites get beaten if the market is so perfect?


The market is only "perfect" re ensuring there is a BOOK profit to be made from odds set......it is not perfect re ODDS set.....for conditions for race.


I don't need to justify my point re the fact that GOING CHANGES and WEATHER CONDITIONS CHANGING does cause horses to drift and shorten.........it is already well known.

You are the one who is scathing about this well known fact.....so you prove otherwise.
Your list of reasons why horses drift I accept as being some of the reasons why they drift........BUT, as i have already stated....sheppy can see RAIN falling or HIGH WINDS blowing.......and it is something practical he can note when considering whether to back or lay.....whereas most of your points are not practical for sheppy to take account of...as he/she is not at course to observe them, and technically he/she is probably not experienced enough to know what is relevant or not.



GL with betting in BRITAIN.........
Report BJT November 1, 2013 1:45 PM GMT
Do you even buy into half the crap you write?

Your comment, was that the majority of horses that drift or shorten, is because of going changes.

Did you not?

Out of all your miraculous drifters that drifted out to 1000 IR (are you for real?), how many of them, were based on going changes?
How many of the ones I showed you are based on going changes?  You are yet to show me 1 drifter that drifted because of a going change, and I have seen at least 100 decent drifters since you started your dribble.
Report DFCIRONMAN November 1, 2013 1:58 PM GMT
Your comment, was that the majority of horses that drift or shorten, is because of going changes.


Show me where I posted that........You are just making it up as you go along.

I said it was the MAIN reason why there are drifters ......or shorteners....and linked to weather conditions too.

Anyway ....you stick to what you believe .....I don't care what that is...as you appear to be someone obsessed re market moves...whereas, I am obsessed re the horse most likely to WIN....

Bye the noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Report BJT November 1, 2013 2:35 PM GMT

Nov 1, 2013 -- 2:58PM, DFCIRONMAN wrote:


Your comment, was that the majority of horses that drift or shorten, is because of going changes.Show me where I posted that........You are just making it up as you go along.I said it was the MAIN reason why there are drifters ......or shorteners....and linked to weather conditions too.Anyway ....you stick to what you believe .....I don't care what that is...as you appear to be someone obsessed re market moves...whereas, I am obsessed re the horse most likely to WIN....Bye the noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo


DFCIRONMAN • October 31, 2013 12:09 PM GMT
Change in GOING is probably the main factor in BRITAIN why horses can drift................not corruption!


There.

Out of the 100 that have drifted since yesterday, how many were because of sudden weather changes?  Simple question really.  If it is the main factor in horses drifting, then lets see some examples...

Anyway ....you stick to what you believe .....I don't care what that is...as you appear to be someone obsessed re market moves...whereas, I am obsessed re the horse most likely to WIN....
So go and find a thread in regards to that and keep out of the one specifically about market moves.

Report DFCIRONMAN November 1, 2013 3:20 PM GMT
Down to daft tradersExcited
Report DFCIRONMAN November 1, 2013 3:21 PM GMT
and what you said that I said is totally different from above bold post which you dragged up......Gotta be fairly thick not to note the difference!
Report DFCIRONMAN November 1, 2013 3:27 PM GMT
DFCIRONMAN 31 Oct 13 15:35 
What Factors Affect Price Movement On The Betting Exchanges?
    Form
    Horse condition & behaviour in paddock before race
    Change in weather conditions
    Going change
    Jockey changes
        People in the know (owners/trainers etc.)
==================================================================================================================


The above are the main factors......whether ....or weatherTongue Out...you like it or not......
===============================================================================================================



You will note that in others opinion that 2 out of the 5 factors are the ones I suggest are the MAIN factors......and as they are appropriate to thread ...you go bile yer heid !
Report DFCIRONMAN November 1, 2013 3:27 PM GMT
2 of the 6 factors....too busy working just now ...
Report BJT November 1, 2013 3:34 PM GMT
2/6 but they are both the same thing.  The change in weather doesn't matter in the slightest if it doesn't affect the track.

Big difference between A factor, and THE MAIN factor.

How are your examples coming along of all these drifters, and how 2/6 of the contributing factors were simply down to the going in the track?
Report BJT November 1, 2013 3:38 PM GMT
I count 105 decent drifters since the 30th.  So no doubt, you could name plenty.  Why don't you?

And seriously.  How often does a jockey swap rides in the race about to start?  You want to put that in is one of the main reasons for price movement?

How many jockeys today, for example, have changed jockeys, even from what was listed this morning?  Any?
Report BJT November 1, 2013 3:40 PM GMT
There is what, 100k horses run in total in the UK in 1 year.  Around 10% of those will drift significantly.  That is 10,000. 
Out of those 10,000, you are going to tell me, that 1 of the main reasons those 10,000 horses drifted, was because the jockey change?

rotflmfao  Absolute goose.
Report DFCIRONMAN November 1, 2013 3:43 PM GMT
BJT 01 Nov 13 16:34 
2/6 but they are both the same thing.  The change in weather doesn't matter in the slightest if it doesn't affect the track.


========================================================================================================================

Just shows how much of a perfectionist you are ...NOT!


Think about it........If you believe they are the "same thing".......they are not.
Report BJT November 1, 2013 3:51 PM GMT

Nov 1, 2013 -- 4:43PM, DFCIRONMAN wrote:


BJT 01 Nov 13 16:34  2/6 but they are both the same thing.  The change in weather doesn't matter in the slightest if it doesn't affect the track.======================================================================... shows how much of a perfectionist you are ...NOT!Think about it........If you believe they are the "same thing".......they are not.


You don't like answering questions do you.

Based on your copy/paste of your subscription service opinion on factors affecting price MOVEMENT, you are going to claim the change in going is the main factor, because it covers 2 of the 6 factors.

Right?  That is what you did.  So when I suggest it is the same thing, you change your mind just so you can argue against me.  Right?

Even forgetting that.  Are you suggesting that all of those factors are equally weighted, to be able to claim the main factorS are the weather, and the change in going?

At the very least, 1/6 horses are drifting/shortening because it has changed jockeys in the moments leading up to the race?


DFCIRONMAN • October 31, 2013 12:09 PM GMT
Change in GOING is probably the main factor in BRITAIN why horses can drift


You will note that in others opinion that 2 out of the 5 factors are the ones I suggest are the MAIN factors

Think about it........If you believe they are the "same thing".......they are not.

Realistically, you are arguing with yourself more than you are with me.  You have no idea what you have even written in the thread previous, and are really just making yourself look like a fool.

Report DFCIRONMAN November 1, 2013 3:54 PM GMT
Main changes to GOING are caused by RAIN........................



Weather conditions can be more than just RAIN.....WIND being the one to watch for at sea-side courses especially.


The point being made you seem to be indicating that CHANGES IN GOING are not relevant to thread......when you say "So go and find a thread in regards to that and keep out of the one specifically about market moves."


You are just being blinkered by your own opinion....
Report DFCIRONMAN November 1, 2013 4:00 PM GMT
You are just fishingggggggggggggggggggggggggg


You are learning me nothing new .......so G'day........I'll leave you to believe that all you say is all that counts re DRIFTERS.......the fact you omitted GOING CHANGES  from your list.....you might have mentioned it ....but not much emphasis on it ...so not worth noting. 


I initially reacted to your biased comments and dodgy comments re FRANKEL ...and trainer.........but GOING CHANGES are relevant to thread...so no more to be said.


GL with bets.
Report BJT November 1, 2013 4:05 PM GMT
Of course going changes are relevant.  When they are unexpected.  Which happens SFA.  Hence why you can't link it to any of the 100+ drifters in the last 2.5 days racing, let alone most of them.

You are the one that made the statement, so shouldn't be too hard to back up.  I backed all my statements up.  Nothing bias or dodgy at all.  100% facts.
Report sheppy123 November 1, 2013 8:08 PM GMT
Hi guys! Great debate/argument - which ever is the correct word!

I've had a terrible 2 days punting! In fact, I need to take a break from horse racing cos I keep losing money. The stupid thing is, I hardly watch any racing, just loads of odds on my computer screen which always seem to go against me! I'm starting to realise that you need some knowledge in this game which I haven't got much of.

I keep trying out different strategies such as backing horses that have drifted a lot thinking that they'll come down, like they've over drifted etc.

You need a good head for gambling which I definitely haven't got. My nightmare started on the 1.40 @ Stratford yesterday. I'd backed "Mister Fantastic" and after about 10 seconds into the race his odds jumped up to 1000. I knew it was all over. I couldn't lay "Advisor" off either, so it was a bad start to the afternoon! I broke the golden rule by trying to chase my losses with bigger stakes and horses that I wouldn't normally have backed. I really lost the plot! It didn't get any better, and around 6pm I went for a walk with the intention of getting my head together and repeatedly said that I was gonna give up on horse racing.

Today, I felt the need to make up for yesterday and it went completely pear-shaped!

The problem is, I enjoy trading on the horses, that's why I do it! But, I don't enjoy losing money so I need to do some serious thinking.....
Report BJT November 1, 2013 10:47 PM GMT
Try sports.  They are governed by things you can see and hear live.  You already know what will move the market, and which way.  Still speculating somewhat on the game, but definitely  a good place to be if you are having trouble on the horses.
At the very least, it may give you some confidence back.
For mine, cricket is by far the best sport to trade.  Can go for longer trade periods which is good for those that have to ring up, or if you are able to scalp it, even better.  Tennis would be a reasonable sport to trade I think but would need much shorter term strategies.

Is good that you have recognised an issue though.  Something that really needs to be sorted.  I have been doing this for 10 years, and there are still moments where you are like WTF just happened, and why did I do that.
Once you can accept that you are a winner, you can start accepting that sometimes that means you will lose.  If you can't believe you are a winner though and your opinion is that you will blow up and dump everything, you probably will.
This is all in the head this lark and you really need it on your side.

GL.
Report sheppy123 November 2, 2013 9:15 AM GMT
Thanks BJT. Yes gambling is very psychological isn't it???

I've noticed that when I start winning, I feel invincible and get other winners. But, when I start losing, it gets worse and worse!

I like betting on golf. I'd have won a fortune if it wasn't for laying my selections too much! I've often had selections which have been masssive odds that haven't won, but have ended up being less than 5s. I definitely think I trade out too early???

Anyway, after losing close to £100 this week I need to do some serious thinking...
Report no moves November 2, 2013 10:54 AM GMT
85% of us are losers on here sheppy don't believe all the bullshit about professional gambler after professional gambler coming on here telling you he only made a grand this week.
Report sheppy123 November 2, 2013 1:14 PM GMT
Thanks no moves. Yes, it's strange how I get a picture in my head that everyone's winning and I'm losing!

It seems quite common though for a lot of gamblers to spend more time talking about their winnings than losings which can give you the impression they're some kinda gambling god!

Why do most of us lose so much but still come back to lose more! We must be gluttons for punishment!
Report DFCIRONMAN November 2, 2013 1:20 PM GMT
BJT 01 Nov 13 17:05 
Of course going changes are relevant.  When they are unexpected.  Which happens SFA.  Hence why you can't link it to any of the 100+ drifters in the last 2.5 days racing, let alone most of them.

You are the one that made the statement, so shouldn't be too hard to back up.  I backed all my statements up.  Nothing bias or dodgy at all.  100% facts.


====================================================================================================================

BJT you ae so perfect in all you do and say.........if you believe the under noted ststements by you are FACTS, then I rest my caseDevilLaugh


=====================================================================================

BJT 30.10.13   2.43
Hence a drift in the odds.

OPINION

BJT 30.10.13  2.43
There are 2 reasons why most of the drift happens on the day.

OPINION

BJT  30.10.13    13.52
Technically, it isn't illegal in the wording of the rules, but it isn't policed at all and even if it was, the jockey would be suspended for around a week.

OPINION

BJT  31.10   2.50
I think UK is probably worse than anywhere to be honest

OPINION

BJT 31.10.13  11.07
The biggest reason a horse will drift and the reason a horse will drift so much, has alot about how it is expected to run.

OPINION

BJT   31.10.13   12.37
When Jan Vermeer went around at 28/1, and was sent out to try and kill the horse, how did it run?

OPINION....AND SOOOOOOOABLE WOULD HAVE THOUGHT!

BJT 31.10.13  13.23
Change in going is certainly not the main factor

There are 2 reasons why most of the drift happens on the day.

OPINION

BJT 01.11.13   13.29
It wasn't the weather that caused it

OPINION
========================================================================================================


I expressed my OPINION that GOING CHANGES and weather conditions changing can cause drifting .......I don't have to "prove" it....it is just an opinion.


It is something that sheppy could have taken into account on considering why a horse drifts....as he/she can observe RAIN falling or HIGH WINDS on screen......they don't have to be at course to pick up on some of factors you listed, omitting CHANGE IN GOING from your list.


At least I know that my opinion is just an opinion...whereas, you are so obsessed re MARKET MOVES ( suspect this is the main way you bet) that you believe that all you say is FACT.

It is a FORUM where people express opinions ....and sometimes FACTS......It is not a COURT OF LAW where you must prove your case.

It is already well known that GOING CHANGES/WEATHER CHANGES can cause a horse to drift.......especially in BRITAIN. However, I suspect the average punter, whoever they are, has not given much consideration to the effect of sudden HIGH WINDS at certain courses that can change GOING with a delay in GOING CHANGE being mentioned by TV commentators......It might be useful for some punters to note this........if they don't believe it is a relevant comment re drifting horses ....then so be it.


G'day...and GL with your MARKET MOVES.
Report BJT November 4, 2013 12:09 AM GMT
Not sure what you are trying to achieve there, but seems you spend a lot of time, for no result.

Instead, why not simply go through all the drifts, and show us how the weather affected them all. 

You are sadly just another on here that wishes to attack the person and can't back up anything you say with anything but trying to show the other person up.  Even if I was wrong, it certainly wouldn't prove your point and suddenly make you right.

But stating how I said "I think"........, as me claiming a fact, is just ridiculous.  Of course it is an opinion.  Then I show how I come up with my opinions, with 100% facts.

Most of the others, I have no idea or motivation to go through and find out the context of where it was written, so it really means very little.

You really don't have the ability to create valid arguments, so you are a waste of my time.  You don't even know what you are arguing about, your whole strategy is simply to try your best to take the focus off yourself.

You seem to have an obsession with me, and it is not healthy.  So I bid you good day.
Report DFCIRONMAN November 4, 2013 11:24 AM GMT
BJT 01 Nov 13 17:05
Of course going changes are relevant.  When they are unexpected.  Which happens SFA.  Hence why you can't link it to any of the 100+ drifters in the last 2.5 days racing, let alone most of them.

You are the one that made the statement, so shouldn't be too hard to back up.  I backed all my statements up.  Nothing bias or dodgy at all.  100% facts.
========================================================================================================================================================

So now you say ...."But stating how I said "I think"........, as me claiming a fact, is just ridiculous.  Of course it is an opinion. Then I show how I come up with my opinions, with 100% facts.

Just don't like someone making out their opinion is suddenly FACT.

All the statements above ( in my post on 01.11.13 at 15.20) made by you are not FACTS. Just opinions.

You do not know for certain why a horse drifts.......there are many reasons and you just say ........

  "BJT 31.10.13  13.23
Change in going is certainly not the main factor

There are 2 reasons why most of the drift happens on the day." etc etc


You just don't know for certain why drifts happen on horses......so as you made such a statement , as above, then you can do the impossible and  " Instead, why not simply go through all the drifts, and show us how the weather affected them all".

After all, you say that "I backed all my statements up.  Nothing bias or dodgy at all.  100% facts."........It was one of your many sweeping statements that you made and did not supply  "proof"......as you can't do so.


You have put forward many reasons why a horse drifts......and I am not saying you are "wrong" on such opinion.....You just omitted GOING AND WEATHER CHANGES from your list
and I posted to the thread that IMO in Britain when such conditions change....and they do frequently....then this is the MAIN REASONS why horses drift.

It is just an opinion, and I do not have to do any more than give sheppy my opinion .....just as you have done. Only difference is ....my opinion is something that sheppy can practically use in considering why a horse might drift. Your list cover many factors that sheppy just can't use in weighing up why a horse has drifted.

Both of us made the point that just because a horse drifts it does not mean the horse will not win.

You have made many personal attacks on me on this thread....and "Whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap."............

I've just set out all the so called FACTS above that are just OPINION............so your sweeping statement that "I backed all my statements up.  Nothing bias or dodgy at all.  100% facts." is highlighted on thread ......


You clearly do know much about market moves and horse racing, I am not knocking you on your knowledge......just putting your statements into perspective in case you mislead someone re your so called FACTS. The statement re the horse F and the connections to horse , as well as on a jockey allegedly riding a horse dead, were outrageous, and you may get bitten on bum re such scurrilous statements.

G'day.
Report BJT November 4, 2013 12:34 PM GMT
So you are saying Bullet Train was in the race to win and it was fluke that he generally wound up slipstreaming his main rival? 

Twice now you have made ridiculous statements concerning my comments.  Reporting the obvious, widely known, and public information, can not possibly get anybody into trouble.

As for all this opinion rubbish.  I back my opinion up with facts.  Simple as that.  You want to sit here and respond with incoherent garbage, then go ahead.  I certainly don't have the time to decipher what you are actually saying, and what is supposed to be quotes.

When somebody doesn't even know how to use a quote button, they generally don't deserve too much in the way of respect.  Certainly don't deserve my time trying to decipher the dribble.

Time to give your dad back his computer little boy...
Report DFCIRONMAN November 4, 2013 1:45 PM GMT
FRANKEL's race record

Flat placings 1111/11111/11111-


So you pick on BT .......and what about all the other horses defeated by F........??? Were they in race to win??????

Just accept the FACT....FRANKEL has won every race.................perfect record.....This is not opinion.......

BT just another defeated horse......

I suggest you look in the mirror and see yersel as others will see you.....You are getting wilder and wilder re your hyperbolic statements of so called FACT.....
Report BJT November 5, 2013 3:26 AM GMT

Nov 4, 2013 -- 1:45PM, DFCIRONMAN wrote:


FRANKEL's race recordFlat placings 1111/11111/11111-So you pick on BT .......and what about all the other horses defeated by F........??? Were they in race to win??????Just accept the FACT....FRANKEL has won every race.................perfect record.....This is not opinion.......BT just another defeated horse......I suggest you look in the mirror and see yersel as others will see you.....You are getting wilder and wilder re your hyperbolic statements of so called FACT.....


15 MAY 2012 | GBI RACING
The world's best horse, Frankel, makes his eagerly-anticipated reappearance in the JLT Lockinge Stakes at Newbury on Saturday and is likely to be joined in the field by stablemate Bullet Train.

He will act as pacemaker for Sir Henry Cecil's brilliant and unbeaten colt who confirmed his wellbeing with a good piece of work at Newmarket on Saturday.

No opinion. Reported facts before race. Reported facts during race. Reported facts after the race.

Report DFCIRONMAN November 5, 2013 12:24 PM GMT
GBI RACING .......before race.

==================================================================================================================

JLT Lockinge Stakes

With the Newmarket Classics out of the way, milers aged four years or older take centre stage in the Group 1 JLT Lockinge Stakes, the second of the QIPCO British Champions Series races in the mile (1600m) category.

This top class contest has been won by the likes of Russian Rhythm and Rakti and many of this year’s field will be looking to build a solid platform on which tobase their season. Indeed, last year’s winner Canford Cliffs won the race en route to a thrilling Royal Ascot Victory in the Queen Anne Stakes. The greatest miler we’ve seen for some time; Frankel makes his seasonal reappearance here, with a view to targets over longer distances later in the season. Regarded by Sir Henry Cecilas the best he’s ever trained, the highest rated horse in the world is unbeaten in all of his nine starts to date. His form, ability and scope to improve further as a four year old, will be factored in his skinny price in this renewal of the Lockinge His main rival, Excelebration comes into the race with a fitness edge,but Frankel is one of the most talented racehorses of all time, and should begin an exciting season with a victory here.
==================================================================================================================================================

The comment made by JBI RACING in your quote......is just that .....Their opinion.....

It is clear from theri opinion in the quote I post above, that they believed F would win.......and in their opinion the MAIN RIVAL was Excelebration....not Bullet Train.


According to RACING POST comment AFTER the race ....

    Excelebration (IRE) 100/30     4     9-0      A P O'Brien     126     *     *     »
    Joseph O'Brien
     
Disputed 3rd until driven and quickened to go 2nd approaching final furlong, kept on well but never any chance with easy winner


===========================================================================================================================================================



It is a prestigious race , and the owner of BT and Frankel was the same person.......so what! One horse was a 5 yo ( BT) and the other a 4 yo (F). Of course the expectation of the owner would be that F would win......but in case it had an off day, they also ran another horse that possibly could win.....if race conditions were in its favour.....which they were4 not IMO.


Horses are not machines, and F could have had an off day.....or pulled up injured etc.... BT did set the pace for race......but when F took it on .....as well as the other horses ...according to RACING POST ....it was "an easy winner"


BT tried to win from front ...and failed.....as did all the other horses in race...except FRANKEL.


Give credit where it is due.....the best horse in race won....... FACT
Report BJT November 5, 2013 12:49 PM GMT

Nov 5, 2013 -- 12:24PM, DFCIRONMAN wrote:


GBI RACING .......before race.=======================================================================... Lockinge StakesWith the Newmarket Classics out of the way, milers aged four years or older take centre stage in the Group 1 JLT Lockinge Stakes, the second of the QIPCO British Champions Series races in the mile (1600m) category.This top class contest has been won by the likes of Russian Rhythm and Rakti and many of this year’s field will be looking to build a solid platform on which tobase their season. Indeed, last year’s winner Canford Cliffs won the race en route to a thrilling Royal Ascot Victory in the Queen Anne Stakes. The greatest miler we’ve seen for some time; Frankel makes his seasonal reappearance here, with a view to targets over longer distances later in the season. Regarded by Sir Henry Cecilas the best he’s ever trained, the highest rated horse in the world is unbeaten in all of his nine starts to date. His form, ability and scope to improve further as a four year old, will be factored in his skinny price in this renewal of the Lockinge His main rival, Excelebration comes into the race with a fitness edge,but Frankel is one of the most talented racehorses of all time, and should begin an exciting season with a victory here.=======================================================================... comment made by JBI RACING in your quote......is just that .....Their opinion.....It is clear from theri opinion in the quote I post above, that they believed F would win.......and in their opinion the MAIN RIVAL was Excelebration....not Bullet Train.According to RACING POST comment AFTER the race ....     Excelebration (IRE) 100/30     4     9-0      A P O'Brien     126     *     *     »    Joseph O'Brien      Disputed 3rd until driven and quickened to go 2nd approaching final furlong, kept on well but never any chance with easy winner ============================================================================... is a prestigious race , and the owner of BT and Frankel was the same person.......so what! One horse was a 5 yo ( BT) and the other a 4 yo (F). Of course the expectation of the owner would be that F would win......but in case it had an off day, they also ran another horse that possibly could win.....if race conditions were in its favour.....which they were4 not IMO.Horses are not machines, and F could have had an off day.....or pulled up injured etc.... BT did set the pace for race......but when F took it on .....as well as the other horses ...according to RACING POST ....it was "an easy winner"BT tried to win from front ...and failed.....as did all the other horses in race...except FRANKEL.Give credit where it is due.....the best horse in race won....... FACT


Are  you all there?

and in their opinion the MAIN RIVAL was Excelebration....not Bullet Train.
Ummmm,, obviously they didn't think BT was a rival, because they knew he was in there with the sole purpose of both setting the pace for his brother, and clearing a path wherever possible.  He wasn't in it to win it, so how the fcuk could he be a rival?


One of the thickest arguments I have seen on the BF forum.  Congratulations, took some doing.

Report BJT November 5, 2013 12:50 PM GMT
And there is no "race pacemaker", he was Frankels pacemaker, pure and simple.
Report BJT November 5, 2013 12:57 PM GMT
Frankels last 6 starts:
    DATE    RACE CONDITIONS    WGT    RACE OUTCOME    JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR
Video    20Oct12       Asc 10Sft C1G1 737K    9-3    1/6 (1¾L Cirrus Des Aigles 9-3) 2/11F    Tom Queally    140    *    *
Video    22Aug12       Yor 10GF C1G1 411K    9-5    1/9 (7L Farhh 9-5) 1/10F    Tom Queally    140    *    *
Video    01Aug12       Goo 8Gd C1G1 179K    9-7    1/4 (6L Farhh 9-7) 1/20F    Tom Queally    140    *    *
Video    19Jun12       Asc 8GS C1G1 198K    9-0    1/11 (11L Excelebration 9-0) 1/10F    Tom Queally    138    *    *
Video    19May12       Nby 8Gd C1G1 99K    9-0    1/6 (5L Excelebration 9-0) 2/7F    Tom Queally    136    *    *
Video    15Oct11       Asc 8Gd C1G1 567K    9-0    1/8 (4L Excelebration 9-0) 4/11F    Tom Queally    135    *    *


Bullet Train last 6 starts:

    DATE    RACE CONDITIONS    WGT    RACE OUTCOME    JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR
Video    20Oct12       Asc 10Sft C1G1 737K    9-3    6/6 (14½L Frankel 9-3) 100/1    Ian Mongan    113    *    *
Video    22Aug12       Yor 10GF C1G1 411K    9-5    5/9 (13½L Frankel 9-5) 50/1    Eddie Ahern    108    *    *
Video    01Aug12       Goo 8Gd C1G1 179K    9-7    4/4 (9¾L Frankel 9-7) 150/1    Ian Mongan    111    *    *
Video    19Jun12       Asc 8GS C1G1 198K    9-0    6/11 (16L Frankel 9-0) 66/1    Ian Mongan    111    *    *
Video    19May12       Nby 8Gd C1G1 99K    9-0    4/6 (12L Frankel 9-0) 100/1    Ian Mongan    106    *    *
Video    15Oct11       Asc 8Gd C1G1 567K    9-3    8/8 (12L Frankel 9-0) 150/1    Ian Mongan    106    *    *



Google pacemaker bullet train, and you will find 1.7 million results.  And you want to claim I will get sued for suggesting that BT ran purely to help his brother out?

You are an absolute goose.
Report DFCIRONMAN November 5, 2013 2:35 PM GMT
FACT...Frankel won...again.......So some might say that no matter what horse ran against it...it would win.....in those races.



You continue your name calling ...makes no difference to me.....all that matters is the FACT FRANKEL won......as was the best horse on the day re the race you selected.
Report DFCIRONMAN November 5, 2013 2:55 PM GMT
BJT ...31.10.13 2.50

"There is no secret I think that horse is very overrated and I have been very vocal in giving my opinions.  Problem here, is the horse is the highest profile horse in the world and the tactics used for it are very questionable in quite a few of his races.  What better example of problems in racing can you make when you have the option of showing rorted races involving the most publicised horse in the world?"

======================================================================================================================================

So you believe the races run by FRANKEL were dishonest schemes for it to win?


Fact is ...it has won every race.............................and with race you picked ...it apparently was an  " easy winner " ( According to RP)......


You make no secret that you believe FRANKEL is "overrated"......but who cares what your opinion is....the FACT is it keeps winning. Not FRANKEL's fault the other horses can't beat it at the distances on the going at the time of year the races were run......
Report BJT November 5, 2013 3:43 PM GMT
Actually the race I originally pointed out as the most obvious use of team riding, the QIPCO Champion Stakes, if Bullet Train was in the race for himself and not for Frankel, CDA would have beaten him.

Unsure how you think him winning disproves that team riding benefited him.
Report DFCIRONMAN November 5, 2013 6:36 PM GMT
GBI RACING ....( as you like to quote them)


QIPCO British Champions Day

The £1.3m QIPCO Champion Stakes will be the richest race in British racing history and is the showcase event of the British Champions Middle Distance series. The 2,012m race has been won by equine stars such as Pebbles and Rakti. Sir Henry Cecil is likely to land his fifth victory in this courtesy of Frankel, who recently stepped up in trip to ten furlongs in the Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes, recording another bloodless victory. He is once again the star attraction and his progression has been hugely responsible for the increased hype surrounding this fantastic event.


===============================================================================================================================================


Anyone who has a horse that MIGHT  be capable of winning a race where prize money was richest race in British racing history, would enter it.


The ease which FRANKEL won the race was just down to BT .....in your opinion.......RUBBISH!


            HORSE/SP     AGE     WGT     TRAINER/JOCKEY     OR     TS     RPR     

«    
1
3         Frankel 2/11F     4     9-3      Sir Henry Cecil     140     *     *    
    Tom Queally
     
Started slowly, recovered into 4th after 3f, brought wide and progress over 2f out, cruised up to lead over 1f out, shaken up to assert final furlong
(op 1-5 tchd 1-4 in places and 1-6 in a place)
    

«    
2
1     1¾     Cirrus Des Aigles (FR) 9/2     6     9-3      Mme C Barande-Barbe     130     *     *     »
    Olivier Peslier
     
Led after 1f to over 5f out, led again well over 2f out and kicked on, ridden and headed over 1f out, stayed on but readily held (op 4-1 tchd 5-1, tchd 11-2 in a place)
    

«    
3
6     2½     Nathaniel (IRE) 9/1     4     9-3      John Gosden     126     *     *    
    William Buick
     
Sweating, tracked leader after 2f to 6f out, ridden to challenge over 2f out, beaten off over 1f out, one pace (op 10-1)
    

«    
4
5     3½     Pastorius (GER) 33/1     3     8-12      Mario Hofer     122     *     *     »
    Frankie Dettori
     
Held up in last, effort to go 4th 2f out, no impression on leader after
    

«    
5
2     4     Master Of Hounds (USA) 80/1     4     9-3      William Haggas     115     *     *     »
    Ryan Moore
     
Held up and soon in 5th, ridden and weakened over 2f out (op 66-1)
    

«    
6
4     2½     Bullet Train 100/1     5     9-3      Sir Henry Cecil     113     *     *    
    Ian Mongan
     
Led 1f, restrained, moved up to lead again over 5f out to well over 2f out, weakened
============================================================================================


FRANKEL won by 3 lengths........and you believe this was down to BT??????    RUBBISH


The going suited it and the field of runners just could not cope with FRANKEL.


You keep insisting it was TEAM RIDING....but the FACT was that CIRRUS DES AIGLES was
the horse that led for much of race.......


«    
2
1     1¾     Cirrus Des Aigles (FR) 9/2     6     9-3      Mme C Barande-Barbe     130     *     *     »
    Olivier Peslier
     
Led after 1f to over 5f out, led again well over 2f out and kicked on, ridden and headed over 1f out, stayed on but readily held (op 4-1 tchd 5-1, tchd 11-2 in a place)



BULLET TRAIN did lead for part of race.....SO WHAT! 

Bullet Train 100/1     5     9-3      Sir Henry Cecil     113     *     *    
    Ian Mongan
     
Led 1f, restrained, moved up to lead again over 5f out to well over 2f out, weakened



Guess what ....it might have been trying to win the richest race in British historyDevilLaugh...............but you are a conspiracy theorist , even though the going was against it winning on the day.....and suited FRANKEL.


FRANKE again was the "best" horse in the race....and won..... " cruised up to lead over 1f out, shaken up to assert final furlong".



You say " if Bullet Train was in the race for himself and not for Frankel,CDA would have beaten him.
Unsure how you think him winning disproves that team riding benefited him." ................................This is just your
opinion.....not FACT ....
Report BJT November 6, 2013 11:59 AM GMT

Nov 5, 2013 -- 6:36PM, DFCIRONMAN wrote:


GBI RACING ....( as you like to quote them)QIPCO British Champions DayThe £1.3m QIPCO Champion Stakes will be the richest race in British racing history and is the showcase event of the British Champions Middle Distance series. The 2,012m race has been won by equine stars such as Pebbles and Rakti. Sir Henry Cecil is likely to land his fifth victory in this courtesy of Frankel, who recently stepped up in trip to ten furlongs in the Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes, recording another bloodless victory. He is once again the star attraction and his progression has been hugely responsible for the increased hype surrounding this fantastic event.======================================================================... who has a horse that MIGHT  be capable of winning a race where prize money was richest race in British racing history, would enter it. The ease which FRANKEL won the race was just down to BT .....in your opinion.......RUBBISH!            HORSE/SP     AGE     WGT     TRAINER/JOCKEY     OR     TS     RPR       «     13         Frankel 2/11F     4     9-3      Sir Henry Cecil     140     *     *         Tom Queally      Started slowly, recovered into 4th after 3f, brought wide and progress over 2f out, cruised up to lead over 1f out, shaken up to assert final furlong (op 1-5 tchd 1-4 in places and 1-6 in a place)      «     21     1¾     Cirrus Des Aigles (FR) 9/2     6     9-3      Mme C Barande-Barbe     130     *     *     »    Olivier Peslier      Led after 1f to over 5f out, led again well over 2f out and kicked on, ridden and headed over 1f out, stayed on but readily held (op 4-1 tchd 5-1, tchd 11-2 in a place)      «     36     2½     Nathaniel (IRE) 9/1     4     9-3      John Gosden     126     *     *         William Buick      Sweating, tracked leader after 2f to 6f out, ridden to challenge over 2f out, beaten off over 1f out, one pace (op 10-1)      «     45     3½     Pastorius (GER) 33/1     3     8-12      Mario Hofer     122     *     *     »    Frankie Dettori      Held up in last, effort to go 4th 2f out, no impression on leader after      «     52     4     Master Of Hounds (USA) 80/1     4     9-3      William Haggas     115     *     *     »    Ryan Moore      Held up and soon in 5th, ridden and weakened over 2f out (op 66-1)      «     64     2½     Bullet Train 100/1     5     9-3      Sir Henry Cecil     113     *     *         Ian Mongan      Led 1f, restrained, moved up to lead again over 5f out to well over 2f out, weakened ============================================================================... won by 3 lengths........and you believe this was down to BT??????    RUBBISHThe going suited it and the field of runners just could not cope with FRANKEL.You keep insisting it was TEAM RIDING....but the FACT was that CIRRUS DES AIGLES was the horse that led for much of race.......«     21     1¾     Cirrus Des Aigles (FR) 9/2     6     9-3      Mme C Barande-Barbe     130     *     *     »    Olivier Peslier      Led after 1f to over 5f out, led again well over 2f out and kicked on, ridden and headed over 1f out, stayed on but readily held (op 4-1 tchd 5-1, tchd 11-2 in a place)BULLET TRAIN did lead for part of race.....SO WHAT!   Bullet Train 100/1     5     9-3      Sir Henry Cecil     113     *     *         Ian Mongan      Led 1f, restrained, moved up to lead again over 5f out to well over 2f out, weakened Guess what ....it might have been trying to win the richest race in British history...............but you are a conspiracy theorist , even though the going was against it winning on the day.....and suited FRANKEL.FRANKE again was the "best" horse in the race....and won..... " cruised up to lead over 1f out, shaken up to assert final furlong".You say " if Bullet Train was in the race for himself and not for Frankel,CDA would have beaten him.Unsure how you think him winning disproves that team riding benefited him." ................................This is just youropinion.....not FACT ....


A couple of questions.

1.  Have you watched the race?
2.  Who won by 3 lengths?
3.  What strategy has ever involved Led 1f, restrained, moved up to lead again over 5f out to well over 2f out, weakened in a horse that was in it to win it?
The horse went to the front to slip stream frankel, couldn't, restrained to try and get him on his back, couldn't, so pushed up to pressure the rival of frankel, then weakened due to being out of gas after doing his job.


Pretty clear that:
1.  No you haven't watched the race even.
2.  Nobody won by 3 lengths.
3.  Never in the history of racing has a horse tried to do that when ridden to ride its best possible race.


Seriously though, if you aren't even prepared to watch the race, to gain your own opinion, what are you trying to achieve?  We can all read racingpost website.  Not sure why you think we need a copy/paste of it to serve as your opinion.

Report DFCIRONMAN November 6, 2013 1:32 PM GMT
yes

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbeTIc-ZfvA

A "couple" of questions are 2....not 3.....

So you jump to an assumption that have not watched the race.......typical of the way you debate with yersel!


FRANKEL won easily...even after a slow start.......so what the feck are you on about?
Report DFCIRONMAN November 6, 2013 1:42 PM GMT
You say "The horse went to the front to slip stream frankel, "..........that is just your opinion......and not what happened in race....


FRANKEL just ssslipstreamed NATHANIEL for most of race....it easily caught them up after a slow start.....


CDA was the horse wanting to push on with pace of race...and did so.....


FRANKEL cruised up and just won without any resort to whip...unlike CDA.....


So I suggest you just accept the best horse won on the day.....
Report BJT November 6, 2013 2:24 PM GMT
What was Bullet Trains jockey looking around to see if he wanted the lead?  He took the lead, then restrained for some "unknown" reason.  Why was that, and why was he searching the field constantly until Frankel had the sit on Nathaniel?
Report BJT November 6, 2013 2:25 PM GMT
Says a whole lot though I ask 3 questions, and your only response is that is more than a "couple"....  rotflmfao....  Hope your dad ups your allowance soon.

GL with that.
Report DFCIRONMAN November 6, 2013 2:41 PM GMT
If you were observant enough ....it was not just BT's jockey looking around.......another horse's jockey looked around.....


Now how you interpret that is just a matter of opinion.....BT jockey maybe was expecting a lead from FRANKEL...DevilLaugh....as was the other jockey looking round early!

I can't interpret what is in your heid.......mince posiblyTongue Out......

Just open your eyes and acknowledge FRANKEL won race easily after a slow start ( for once).....

Your churlish comments don't really surprise me.....and just admit that a couple is 2....not 3......


You churning out questions on a race that was a cllear win by FRANKEL makes me think you are OBSESSED re FRANKEL ...and your opinion that FRANKEL is overrated.


Most horses are OVERRATED by commentators but the ratings speak for themselves...

Top ranked horses

    Horse names are followed by a suffix indicating the country where foaled.

Year     Rating     Horse     Trained     Race
2003     134     Hawk Wing (USA)     Ireland     Lockinge Stakes
2004     130     Ghostzapper (USA)     United States     Breeders' Cup Classic
2005     130     Hurricane Run (IRE)     France     Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
2006     129     Invasor (ARG)     United States     Breeders' Cup Classic
2007     131     Manduro (GER)     France     Prince of Wales's Stakes
2008     130     Curlin (USA)     United States     Dubai World Cup
Stephen Foster Handicap
130     New Approach (IRE)     Ireland     Champion Stakes
2009     136     Sea The Stars (IRE)     Ireland     Irish Champion Stakes
2010     135     Harbinger (GB)     Great Britain     King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes
2011     136     Frankel (GB)[1]     Great Britain     Sussex Stakes
2012     140     Frankel (GB)[2]     Great Britain     Queen Anne Stakes / Juddmonte International Stakes

......


It really is yersel that should grow up....and accept FRANKEL is  an exceptional horse.........All your scurrilous comments re RORTED races...is just bull re FRANKEL.....


If you cannot see that FRANKEL won the race easily....you are a poor observer re races....


G'day ...
Report BJT November 6, 2013 2:48 PM GMT
The well paid commentator may share my opinion if you ever cared to actually watch the race....  Crazy
Report DFCIRONMAN November 6, 2013 2:53 PM GMT
BHA RATED HORSES

Top rated horses of the last 25 years
This is the official table of the top rated horses of the last 25 years.

Please note non-European horses were only included from 1995 onwards

Year       3 year olds       Rating       Older Horses       Rating
2011       Frankel       136       Black Caviar       132
2010       Workforce & Makfi       128       Harbinger       135
2009       Sea The Stars       136       Goldikova       130
2008       New Approach       130       Curlin       130
2007       Authorized       129       Manduro       131
2006       Bernadini & Discreet Cat       128       Invasor       129
2005       Hurricane Run       130       Ghostzapper       128
2004       Smarty Jones       128       Ghostzapper       130
2003       Dalakhani       132       Hawk Wing       133
2002       Rock of Gibraltar       128       Marienbard       127
2001       Point Given       130       Sakhee       133
2000       Sinndar       132       Dubai Millenium       134
1999       Montjeu       135       Daylami       135
1998       Desert Prince       128       Skip Away       131
1997       Peintre Celebre       137       Pilsudski       134
1996       Helissio       134       Cigar       135
1995       Lammtarra       130       Cigar       132
1994       Balanchine       130       Maroof       128
1993       Zafonic       130       Opera House       129
1992       Rodrigo De Triano       127       Selkirk       128
1991       Generous       137       Priolo & Epervier Bleu       126
1990       Dayjur       133       Old Vic       130
1989       Zilzal & Old Vic       134       Carroll House       128
1988       Warning       133       Miesque       132
1987       Reference Point       135       Mtoto       134
1986       Dancing Brave       141       Shardari       132
1985       Slip Anchor       135       Rainbow Quest       133

==================================================================================================================


Clearly it is rated highly......though you believe it is OVERRATED.......Only your opinion...as the RATINGS indicate otherwise.....
Report DFCIRONMAN November 6, 2013 2:55 PM GMT
BJT 06 Nov 13 14:48 
The well paid commentator may share my opinion if you ever cared to actually watch the race....  Crazy
======================================================================================================================================================

The commentator states FRANKEL slipstreamed NATHANIEL......so not only can't you see what happened ...you don't listen properly either.....Laugh
Report DFCIRONMAN November 6, 2013 3:01 PM GMT
Anyway .......the commentator is only expressing an opinion ...it was his interpretation on race.......and nothing takes away from FACT FRANKEL won easily after a slow start.....


How far would it have won...had it started normally??????
Report BJT November 6, 2013 3:25 PM GMT
Well played.  You are a genius.  Congratulations on the future Darwin award.....
Report BJT November 6, 2013 3:29 PM GMT
Nothing beats a British commentator claiming a complete rort of the rules of the BHA, on a live telecast broadcast to the world....

ConfusedConfusedConfused
Report DFCIRONMAN November 6, 2013 3:40 PM GMT
The commentator expressed an opinion on why jockey looked back....but as stated...he was not the only jockey looking back ......you really are a biased eeeejjjjiiiittt.

Commentator never used your words ......so you just make it up as you go along....


FRANKEL won easily.....so what is your point?


Grow up.
Report BJT November 7, 2013 3:02 AM GMT

Nov 6, 2013 -- 3:40PM, DFCIRONMAN wrote:


The commentator expressed an opinion on why jockey looked back....but as stated...he was not the only jockey looking back ......you really are a biased eeeejjjjiiiittt.Commentator never used your words ......so you just make it up as you go along....FRANKEL won easily.....so what is your point?Grow up.


Commentator never used these words?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6Sid0fqd_4

Watch this race, and listen to the commentator for the first half of the race.


"Ian Mongan having a look around to find Frankel".
"Bullet Train clearly being restrained in an attempt to try and get Frankel on his back, his rider looking round persistantly".
"Bullet Train trying to get in front of Frankel in 3rd and 4th place but unable to slipstream him".....
"Bullet Train just trying to make a nuisance up the inside once more".


The volume + button is your friend....

Now if you could be a good chap and point out the time on that video where any jockey ever turned around, it would be much appreciated.  Even if they did, there was none looking around and steering his horse to try can give another horse a cart up.

And yes, the commentator was giving an opinion.  The commentator for G1 English racing, has an opinion that it is accepted practice to hire jockeys, and enter horses, with the sole purpose of helping out another horse in the race.  That is his opinion.  A man hired by the racing industry to report live on the current state of a race, has the opinion that not all horses are given their best possible chance and are in the race purely for team riding.

Pretty valid "opinion" I would think.  Did he lose his job for his "opinion"? Would think that a man commentating on one of the most watched races in the world claiming such things about British racing couldn't possibly have kept his job.  Right?

Report DFCIRONMAN November 7, 2013 12:16 PM GMT
JBT ...You ask ( rather stupidly...as was clearly on video at start of race).....MASTER OF HOUNDS (horse number 4)  jockey at around 16 secs looked round
to see where FRANKEL was ......................probably wanting to "slipstream" FRANKEL.....Who knows...certainly not you or the commentator.


What the commentaor said was just his opinion...not fact. When he said FRANKEL was trying to slipstream BT......he never tried to do that.......FRANKEL's jockey just followed
NATHANIEL for most of race.....


Also BT was on inside rail at finish......FRANKEL always ran race on OUTSIDE of horses.


CDA had at least a 5/6 length start in race over FRANKEL....but lost by 3 lengths ( SL states this....looked 2.5 lengths to me).


FRANKEL cruised up to win easily.......without any help from any other horse in race.

The commentator "expected" BT to be the lead horse BEFORE the race......based on his inane comments during the race. He tried to hype up the drama in race by his comments..

....which was for the general public ....not professional punters .

Based on FACTS of race....not opinion of commentaor......FRANKEL started slowly.....lost 5/6 lengths at start ....quickly made up ground
to sit 4th behind NATHANIEL ( never tried to get behind BT)....kept to outside of field position....allowing CDA and BT and NATHANIEL to lead him round course.

When FRANKEL made his move arount 1.42 secs on video......he cruised up and won easily...taking the lead without recourse to whip......
CDA jockey used whip at least twice before FRANKEL cruised past him......FRANKEL jockey did use whip once when about 2 lengths up near finish.....
but still won clearly ahead of field.


I don't give a feck about what the commentator said...as irrelevant to how easily FRANKEL won.

If you are simple and believe every word a commentator makes....you are an eeejjjjiiiittttttttttttDevilLaugh

FRANKEL won easily....end of discussion.......never attempted to slipstream BT........open yor eyes ....


As already stated ...BT jockey MAY have wanted to slipstream FRANKEL .....as di horse MOH.......possibly....who knows....certainly not YOU!

G'day.
Report BJT November 8, 2013 11:38 AM GMT
I have watched the race, and find it amusing that you choose to ignore the relevance of what the conversation is actually about.

The plan of the race, was for BT, as per usual, to slipstream Frankel until about 3-4 furlongs, then pull off to the side and let him through, and take out anybody behind him.  That was the plan in all their races.

The jockey on Frankel was quite happy to sit behind Nathaniel once that was apparant it couldn't happen.
The jockey on BT however, since that is what he was employed to do, tried to manoeuvre back through the field to get in front of Frankel to drag him through the field.  Once he finally worked out that it wasn't happening, he then pushed his horse forward to put as much pressure on CDA as possible, seeing as that horse was Frankels main rival.
Every move BT made in that race was about Frankel, not about BT getting the best possible finish for himself.

The rest of the rubbish about how Frankel won, is just that, and not relevant here.  The conversation, was about horses being in the race for others benefit, and riding dead.  The conversation was about it being accepted practice in England for team riding, and riding horses dead to fraudulently rip off the general public.

Hey you accept it, so good on you.  Just because you accept it happening, doesn't suddenly mean that it isn't.

Wish you good luck on the punt.  Sounds like you need it.
Report DFCIRONMAN November 8, 2013 12:54 PM GMT
You are brainwashed IMO.....

You appear to have made up your mind on how race would go.....BUT.....it didn't go your way or the way of the commentator.
YUP....both of you were "wrong"!

You had your dream race in your mind....but, it never happened the way you dreamt it would.


FRANKEL won easily AFTER A SLOW START....................Had it come 2nd.....you probably would then have said it was down
to not having BT leading it round, which of course would be just garbish.

Your "conversation" is your conversation with yersel.........................you picked this race to be critical....
.not anyone else.....and you already had preconceived idea on how race would be run....which never happened.

How many times does the outsider of 2 , from same stable/owner, win? Also, there are examples which you refer to that YOU could
have selected. .....There are other stables/ races you could have selected to have a "conversation" re the topic YOU wish to discuss
BUT you chose the race above.


You chose a bad example to try to prove your point.......and all because you believe FRANKEL is an overrated horse .

FRANKEL has a record that is excellent over the distances run and in the class of races............so your attempt
to tarnish this horse's record had failed. You tried to fit the above race/horse into the category you have in your
head........and fail to take into account just how easily FRANKEL won the race selected by you.

The topic of thread was about "DRIFTING" in market.........then you introduced a topic that is clearly a " bee in the bonnet " one
as far as you are concerned. So enough on the race selected......go open another thread on your topic if you wish
( I suspect it will be removed if your attacks are as scurrilous as the 2 on this thread).

GL with your punts.....as I suspect you need LUCK more than I doDevilLaugh
Report BJT November 8, 2013 2:53 PM GMT
Queen Anne.
BT jumped out, steered 2 across to get in front, then slipstreamed him through most of the race.
"But its Bullet Train, Frankels pacemaker"

QE2
BT sent for home with 8 furlongs to go.  Finished last.

Lockinge.
There to slipstream Frankel again.  Beaten off early.

Sussex
There to slipstream Frankel.
Commentator again.  "So Bullet Train, with a few anxious looks over his shoulder, Ian Mongan, to ensure he is setting the right pace for Frankel"..

Champion
Tried slipstreaming, then went to pressure CDA when he couldn't.


The only legitimate run in there, was the Juddmonte International.  The rest he was running dead, with tactics purely designed to rort the rules of racing and the punter out of their money.


So yes, these are the some of the things you look out for when horses are drifting.  Cheating/fraud/rort/running them dead, whichever term you wish to use to describe the blatant disregard for the rules of racing in England.
Report DFCIRONMAN November 8, 2013 4:15 PM GMT
Any horse AHEAD of FRANKEL slipstreamed it.................................................they all lostDevilLaugh
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