Oct 31, 2013 -- 4:08PM, DFCIRONMAN wrote:
LISTEN BOY likely to drift...and Danandy to shorten.....watch this space......................
Listen Boy WAP 2.70, SP 2.67 Danandy 7 and 6.8SP......
Oct 31, 2013 -- 6:02PM, DFCIRONMAN wrote:
GOING suited the two winners as well as having a number of factors in favour......One of them won on a AW course.....as it happens RAIN probably would not have lessened it chances today .....HIGH WING may well have stopped it...so conditions suited AW winner.GOING suited winner on NH, as well as other factors in favour. As it was a NH race type.....had it RAINED heavily, then it probbaly still would have won. Had the sun been shining and it was WINDY, then going may well have changed to GOOD TO SOFT......or GOOD in this country.....and this probably would have given it a far less chance of winning today......As it happened the GOING stayed SOFT ....so was fine for horse today.LISTEN BOY chances of winning would have increased had GOING dried out.....never happened , but market still made it favourite...they got it wrong as usual.
You don't even know what you are arguing any more. Now you are arguing that if a horse likes a certain type of going, it is more likely to run well?
If the conditions didn't change, that is all irrelevant. The market has already taken into account what the weather is doing, what it is likely to do, what the ground conditions are, and what they are likely to do. The market will react to said conditions, when the unexpected happens.
For the going to be the main reason horses drift and shorten, means the unexpected happens, in most races, every day.
For the example you mention, LISTEN BOY, you state, the conditions DIDN'T change nor was it expected too. The race was run as expected.
In this race, I have 4 horses that traded significantly higher than their weighted average price.
Rouge Et Blanc
Arctic Ben, had an WAP of 11.95. It was trading at 14s+ around start time. Beaten 9 lengths.
Bennys Mist had a WAP of 18.45. It was trading at 23+ around start time. Beaten 55 lengths.
Rouge Et Blanc 28.94 trading at 36. PULLED UP
Harry Hunt 10.01 trading at 12. 3rd beaten 5.5 lengths.
Now there are 4 significant drifters in this race, where the going played zero part.
The 2 winners.
Modernism. WAP of 4.54, trading there at start time.
Danandy. WAP of 7.1 trading at 7s.
There was no move for either of them.
Danandy, for the record, at its previous start, shortened significantly. About a minute before jump time, had a WAP of 6.82 where it was trading at 5.9. WAP came into 6.63. Fair move on it.
The conditions for that day.
GOING: GOOD (Good to soft in places; 7.7). Weather conditions: sunny; 12 degrees.
For a start, I am not sure when sunny has ever equalled 12 degrees, but another story. The move on Danandy, happened on a day when the weather was consistant, the track condition was unchanged for all races.
Yesterday, his price was unmoved, yet the track condition was:
GOING: SOFT (Good to soft in places) changing to SOFT after Race 3 (2.10) changing to SOFT (Heavy in places) on the Hurdle course after Race 4 (2.55). Weather conditions: Overcast.
It won race 5 and the track conditions had changed officially twice previous to that, from good to soft, to soft, to soft to heavy.
The race there was a move for him, he was pulled up, after big money came for him, after constant weather/going.
The race there was no move, he won, after the track got significantly heavier as the day went on, obviously suiting him, yet no move.
Please explain how this completely goes against what you are trying to argue with me.
I will have a go. The market already had taken into account the likely condition of the track for his race. Nothing unexpected happened.
The big move with constant going, and zero movement with big changes. Sort of knocks your theory right on the head. Why you have included these as your examples to prove your point are beyond me. They do the exact opposite.
Nov 1, 2013 -- 2:58PM, DFCIRONMAN wrote:
Your comment, was that the majority of horses that drift or shorten, is because of going changes.Show me where I posted that........You are just making it up as you go along.I said it was the MAIN reason why there are drifters ......or shorteners....and linked to weather conditions too.Anyway ....you stick to what you believe .....I don't care what that is...as you appear to be someone obsessed re market moves...whereas, I am obsessed re the horse most likely to WIN....Bye the noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
DFCIRONMAN • October 31, 2013 12:09 PM GMT
Change in GOING is probably the main factor in BRITAIN why horses can drift................not corruption!
Out of the 100 that have drifted since yesterday, how many were because of sudden weather changes? Simple question really. If it is the main factor in horses drifting, then lets see some examples...
Anyway ....you stick to what you believe .....I don't care what that is...as you appear to be someone obsessed re market moves...whereas, I am obsessed re the horse most likely to WIN....
So go and find a thread in regards to that and keep out of the one specifically about market moves.
Nov 1, 2013 -- 4:43PM, DFCIRONMAN wrote:
BJT 01 Nov 13 16:34 2/6 but they are both the same thing. The change in weather doesn't matter in the slightest if it doesn't affect the track.======================================================================... shows how much of a perfectionist you are ...NOT!Think about it........If you believe they are the "same thing".......they are not.
You don't like answering questions do you.
Based on your copy/paste of your subscription service opinion on factors affecting price MOVEMENT, you are going to claim the change in going is the main factor, because it covers 2 of the 6 factors.
Right? That is what you did. So when I suggest it is the same thing, you change your mind just so you can argue against me. Right?
Even forgetting that. Are you suggesting that all of those factors are equally weighted, to be able to claim the main factorS are the weather, and the change in going?
At the very least, 1/6 horses are drifting/shortening because it has changed jockeys in the moments leading up to the race?
DFCIRONMAN • October 31, 2013 12:09 PM GMT
Change in GOING is probably the main factor in BRITAIN why horses can drift
You will note that in others opinion that 2 out of the 5 factors are the ones I suggest are the MAIN factors
Think about it........If you believe they are the "same thing".......they are not.
Realistically, you are arguing with yourself more than you are with me. You have no idea what you have even written in the thread previous, and are really just making yourself look like a fool.
Nov 4, 2013 -- 1:45PM, DFCIRONMAN wrote:
FRANKEL's race recordFlat placings 1111/11111/11111-So you pick on BT .......and what about all the other horses defeated by F........??? Were they in race to win??????Just accept the FACT....FRANKEL has won every race.................perfect record.....This is not opinion.......BT just another defeated horse......I suggest you look in the mirror and see yersel as others will see you.....You are getting wilder and wilder re your hyperbolic statements of so called FACT.....
15 MAY 2012 | GBI RACING
The world's best horse, Frankel, makes his eagerly-anticipated reappearance in the JLT Lockinge Stakes at Newbury on Saturday and is likely to be joined in the field by stablemate Bullet Train.
He will act as pacemaker for Sir Henry Cecil's brilliant and unbeaten colt who confirmed his wellbeing with a good piece of work at Newmarket on Saturday.
No opinion. Reported facts before race. Reported facts during race. Reported facts after the race.
Nov 5, 2013 -- 12:24PM, DFCIRONMAN wrote:
GBI RACING .......before race.=======================================================================... Lockinge StakesWith the Newmarket Classics out of the way, milers aged four years or older take centre stage in the Group 1 JLT Lockinge Stakes, the second of the QIPCO British Champions Series races in the mile (1600m) category.This top class contest has been won by the likes of Russian Rhythm and Rakti and many of this year’s field will be looking to build a solid platform on which tobase their season. Indeed, last year’s winner Canford Cliffs won the race en route to a thrilling Royal Ascot Victory in the Queen Anne Stakes. The greatest miler we’ve seen for some time; Frankel makes his seasonal reappearance here, with a view to targets over longer distances later in the season. Regarded by Sir Henry Cecilas the best he’s ever trained, the highest rated horse in the world is unbeaten in all of his nine starts to date. His form, ability and scope to improve further as a four year old, will be factored in his skinny price in this renewal of the Lockinge His main rival, Excelebration comes into the race with a fitness edge,but Frankel is one of the most talented racehorses of all time, and should begin an exciting season with a victory here.=======================================================================... comment made by JBI RACING in your quote......is just that .....Their opinion.....It is clear from theri opinion in the quote I post above, that they believed F would win.......and in their opinion the MAIN RIVAL was Excelebration....not Bullet Train.According to RACING POST comment AFTER the race .... Excelebration (IRE) 100/30 4 9-0 A P O'Brien 126 * * » Joseph O'Brien Disputed 3rd until driven and quickened to go 2nd approaching final furlong, kept on well but never any chance with easy winner ============================================================================... is a prestigious race , and the owner of BT and Frankel was the same person.......so what! One horse was a 5 yo ( BT) and the other a 4 yo (F). Of course the expectation of the owner would be that F would win......but in case it had an off day, they also ran another horse that possibly could win.....if race conditions were in its favour.....which they were4 not IMO.Horses are not machines, and F could have had an off day.....or pulled up injured etc.... BT did set the pace for race......but when F took it on .....as well as the other horses ...according to RACING POST ....it was "an easy winner"BT tried to win from front ...and failed.....as did all the other horses in race...except FRANKEL.Give credit where it is due.....the best horse in race won....... FACT
Are you all there?
and in their opinion the MAIN RIVAL was Excelebration....not Bullet Train.
Ummmm,, obviously they didn't think BT was a rival, because they knew he was in there with the sole purpose of both setting the pace for his brother, and clearing a path wherever possible. He wasn't in it to win it, so how the fcuk could he be a rival?
One of the thickest arguments I have seen on the BF forum. Congratulations, took some doing.
Nov 5, 2013 -- 6:36PM, DFCIRONMAN wrote:
GBI RACING ....( as you like to quote them)QIPCO British Champions DayThe £1.3m QIPCO Champion Stakes will be the richest race in British racing history and is the showcase event of the British Champions Middle Distance series. The 2,012m race has been won by equine stars such as Pebbles and Rakti. Sir Henry Cecil is likely to land his fifth victory in this courtesy of Frankel, who recently stepped up in trip to ten furlongs in the Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes, recording another bloodless victory. He is once again the star attraction and his progression has been hugely responsible for the increased hype surrounding this fantastic event.======================================================================... who has a horse that MIGHT be capable of winning a race where prize money was richest race in British racing history, would enter it. The ease which FRANKEL won the race was just down to BT .....in your opinion.......RUBBISH! HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR « 13 Frankel 2/11F 4 9-3 Sir Henry Cecil 140 * * Tom Queally Started slowly, recovered into 4th after 3f, brought wide and progress over 2f out, cruised up to lead over 1f out, shaken up to assert final furlong (op 1-5 tchd 1-4 in places and 1-6 in a place) « 21 1¾ Cirrus Des Aigles (FR) 9/2 6 9-3 Mme C Barande-Barbe 130 * * » Olivier Peslier Led after 1f to over 5f out, led again well over 2f out and kicked on, ridden and headed over 1f out, stayed on but readily held (op 4-1 tchd 5-1, tchd 11-2 in a place) « 36 2½ Nathaniel (IRE) 9/1 4 9-3 John Gosden 126 * * William Buick Sweating, tracked leader after 2f to 6f out, ridden to challenge over 2f out, beaten off over 1f out, one pace (op 10-1) « 45 3½ Pastorius (GER) 33/1 3 8-12 Mario Hofer 122 * * » Frankie Dettori Held up in last, effort to go 4th 2f out, no impression on leader after « 52 4 Master Of Hounds (USA) 80/1 4 9-3 William Haggas 115 * * » Ryan Moore Held up and soon in 5th, ridden and weakened over 2f out (op 66-1) « 64 2½ Bullet Train 100/1 5 9-3 Sir Henry Cecil 113 * * Ian Mongan Led 1f, restrained, moved up to lead again over 5f out to well over 2f out, weakened ============================================================================... won by 3 lengths........and you believe this was down to BT?????? RUBBISHThe going suited it and the field of runners just could not cope with FRANKEL.You keep insisting it was TEAM RIDING....but the FACT was that CIRRUS DES AIGLES was the horse that led for much of race.......« 21 1¾ Cirrus Des Aigles (FR) 9/2 6 9-3 Mme C Barande-Barbe 130 * * » Olivier Peslier Led after 1f to over 5f out, led again well over 2f out and kicked on, ridden and headed over 1f out, stayed on but readily held (op 4-1 tchd 5-1, tchd 11-2 in a place)BULLET TRAIN did lead for part of race.....SO WHAT! Bullet Train 100/1 5 9-3 Sir Henry Cecil 113 * * Ian Mongan Led 1f, restrained, moved up to lead again over 5f out to well over 2f out, weakened Guess what ....it might have been trying to win the richest race in British history...............but you are a conspiracy theorist , even though the going was against it winning on the day.....and suited FRANKEL.FRANKE again was the "best" horse in the race....and won..... " cruised up to lead over 1f out, shaken up to assert final furlong".You say " if Bullet Train was in the race for himself and not for Frankel,CDA would have beaten him.Unsure how you think him winning disproves that team riding benefited him." ................................This is just youropinion.....not FACT ....
A couple of questions.
1. Have you watched the race?
2. Who won by 3 lengths?
3. What strategy has ever involved Led 1f, restrained, moved up to lead again over 5f out to well over 2f out, weakened in a horse that was in it to win it?
The horse went to the front to slip stream frankel, couldn't, restrained to try and get him on his back, couldn't, so pushed up to pressure the rival of frankel, then weakened due to being out of gas after doing his job.
Pretty clear that:
1. No you haven't watched the race even.
2. Nobody won by 3 lengths.
3. Never in the history of racing has a horse tried to do that when ridden to ride its best possible race.
Seriously though, if you aren't even prepared to watch the race, to gain your own opinion, what are you trying to achieve? We can all read racingpost website. Not sure why you think we need a copy/paste of it to serve as your opinion.
Nov 6, 2013 -- 3:40PM, DFCIRONMAN wrote:
The commentator expressed an opinion on why jockey looked back....but as stated...he was not the only jockey looking back ......you really are a biased eeeejjjjiiiittt.Commentator never used your words ......so you just make it up as you go along....FRANKEL won easily.....so what is your point?Grow up.
Commentator never used these words?
Watch this race, and listen to the commentator for the first half of the race.
"Ian Mongan having a look around to find Frankel".
"Bullet Train clearly being restrained in an attempt to try and get Frankel on his back, his rider looking round persistantly".
"Bullet Train trying to get in front of Frankel in 3rd and 4th place but unable to slipstream him".....
"Bullet Train just trying to make a nuisance up the inside once more".
The volume + button is your friend....
Now if you could be a good chap and point out the time on that video where any jockey ever turned around, it would be much appreciated. Even if they did, there was none looking around and steering his horse to try can give another horse a cart up.
And yes, the commentator was giving an opinion. The commentator for G1 English racing, has an opinion that it is accepted practice to hire jockeys, and enter horses, with the sole purpose of helping out another horse in the race. That is his opinion. A man hired by the racing industry to report live on the current state of a race, has the opinion that not all horses are given their best possible chance and are in the race purely for team riding.
Pretty valid "opinion" I would think. Did he lose his job for his "opinion"? Would think that a man commentating on one of the most watched races in the world claiming such things about British racing couldn't possibly have kept his job. Right?