For all the pro's on here...

wow sounds like your doing really well. I'm massively down on here. do you trade or just try and pick winners? could you help me out a little?

lanza ref: cricket runs, do you take a view/position pre match or do you clean up the skinny odds later on, ie backing 350 plus whilst 300-3

i live in the vallies mate, houses not that expensive here it sounds better than it is.

my day to day cricket stuff...probably helps if youv watched nearly every game of cricket on sky for the last 5 years getting a feeling for the players / grounds / conditions.  I gave up on match odds as there were so many people out there who were much better than me. But By going to the smaller markets and helping them grow / develop over time and creating some little specialist area for yourself, i found that works for me.  Im good with numbers / stats and so cricket is a great sport for me to bet on.

my dog books include lots and lots of research.  I pick a few i fancy or ones i think stand out / want to take on and then as one of a few market makers in that area, its all about numbers and % and lots of take. Same with the darts and ladies tennis. I back / i lay and trade.

il post the occasional gem, franklin top bat 66/1...windins at 16/1 world t20, mvg in the worlds 100+, sidaz jack english greyhound derby but im on here so much, i should throw up a good shout everynow and again.

Sweetchild....ummmm...yes...all of the above.  I normally do a little research, get some idea of what to expect and then wait for s.i to form a run line which is always running in the background asa guide. But alot depends on the prices between run lines in relation to what im expecting.  Small positon before the off and then adjusted in-running.  Again,,, watching so much cricket and knowing who's to come, who's left to bowl, the ground all helps to form an idea of what might happen next but it only comes i feel from having watched so much of the stuff in the past.

lanza, I don't think Sweetchild, (sometimes known as Sweety)  will understand that, so you 
may have to rephrase some of it, especially of words of more than 4 letters.

so say your £1000 up for the month lanza, and then lose £1200 in 3 losing bets? will you place a big chase bet to get back into profit for the month?

naa mate, i dont expect to win all the time, setbacks happen and its just part and parcel of the game we play.

so without a job how can you not chase to get back on track?

it's just you were winning an incredible 10-20k a year. did you aim to make a certain amount per bet?

3setpoints you seems to have it in your head that when people lose a few bets on here they have to go chasing to get it back, which couldn't be further from the truth.  People will just carry on doing exactly what they have been doing knowing that in the long run things will work out OK. Losing a few bets shouldn't cause anybody discomfort unless they are over-staking and the likes of Lanza and co will be able to stomach many losing runs just as part of normal day to day/week to week/month to month business.

3sets its his profession..if you worked in, lets say burger king...you decide to have a day off with a hangover, youve lost 50 quidish, they wont give you an overtime shift to get your 50 quid back...bit of a loose analogy but same concept

Here's another analogy...

You get 11/10 for the correct toss of a coin. After hundreds of tosses you'll be up.

Lot of good points made here.  I like you lanza live in the valleysand have watched every game of cricket for the past x amount of years.  Only trade in play on lesser markets and I back up what you say its all about instinct for whats going to happen next just comes from experience and knowing the game inside out (been watching cricket since I was 8 year old).  Was full time for 3 years and did well  but as pointed out on here its hard work and pressured when things not going well and often long hours.  If you have dependants they not too keen on the inconsistency of income (ie some months loads next month next to nothing) even if overall it ends up better than if you had a "proper job".  At moment back to a PT job and this to make it up find it the best balance (although hate being at work during a good game of cricket to trade) .

Im a driving instructor but for the last few years ive been making more money on here. The good thing about being self employed is that you can choose your hours to a degree and you can decrease and increase your hours to suit your needs. Over the last 6 months ive been gradually decreasing my instructing to spend more time on here and its going well. The downside with quitting a regular job is there is no guarenteed income. You expect to win in the long run but if you run out of money in a long losing streak you have no money to win it back. My advice is work out what your worst ever losing streak was and make sure you have enough money in the bank to survive that and enough to live on in the meantime. Good luck.

and you also need to factor in that if you go full time and are ultimately successful, you may need to eventually budget for losing up to 60% of your profits every wednesday

3setpoints couldn't be the original Paulol .... then the hundreds of new usernames and then towards the end known as BobVegas .... could it be

Actually is 40% but yeah you I stake more to allow for it and if I lose £1000 I look on it as a credit on future premium charges so I have only lost £600 in the long run

its just brutal isnt it 

haven't reached the dreaded £250000 mark yet but not sure what I will do then hoping they will have had a change of heart and scrapped it by then or the purple site will have upped their game by then.  How do you manage with 40% taken is it still viable?  Do you use the purple site at all to supplement bf? Problem for me is they offer less smaller markets.

cant imagine what its like for people going to bed on tuesday night, and waking up on wednesday morning minus 60%, im not sure i could handle that scenario (unlikely as it is to happen)

undern - if 3SP isn't paulol he does a bloody good impression of him

Is it not possible to spread the betting out between lots of bookies to avoid the premium charges?

3sets its his profession..if you worked in, lets say burger king...you decide to have a day off with a hangover, youve lost 50 quidish, they wont give you an overtime shift to get your 50 quid back...bit of a loose analogy but same concept

good analogy.

I think the difference here is i'm coming at it from a picking winners/general punting perspective, whereas you guys obviously have "an edge"

I think you guys have it right with the part-time job/betfair mix. Breaking up the week and having a bit of guaranteed income can't be a bad thing. It's dangerous to become too reliant on this place as god knows what nasty tweaks are ahead.
I've been paying 50% since pc2 came in and this past year I've become really lazy. I think betfair thought that people would increase their activity to keep their net 'income' the same, but it's had the opposite effect on me.
I have zero motivation to set my alarm for 1 a.m to trade the NBA when I only keep 50%

undern

just taken 2.8k in premium charge this morning.

60% would have meant they'd just taken 7.4k out of my account for the market id worked on all year... frightening stuff. and the 600 quid comission  so 8k out of 14.

i wont be able to carry on and would have to get a more 'normal job' at that point.

3sp...the vis is spot on.

cragihol...im sorry you live you here 2 . I actually love merthyr tho.

I went into other sports a few yrs ago as there wasnt enough cricket on and i needed some more income streams.  4 grand slams, about 12 dart comps and then 10+premier league nights, 2 big dog races, add in a few specials / manager markets and i was ok with my daily stuff.  I use to look forward to april as i looked upon it as the time to feast with 70ipl games in that month.  But now with the explosion of t20 leagues from all around the world i find im almost busting my schedule is choc-a-bloc.

Having just had my biggest winner ever, i thought i was only a few months away from super pc and finishing and i dont really know what im gonna do, but given betfair have said its net profit and not gross so im another 40odd k away so have a little more time before retirement back to normality.

curly...ouch..firstly well done on getting to 250 mate but it must feel like a right kick in the nuts everyweek. i tried the other place when i was under investigation for premium charge avoidance several years ago and found it to be useless.  All adds to the despair.

8.4k premium charge at 60....fook me

Personally if I was paying 50 percent I'd tell it get stuffed, give up

I'd feel happy if I was paying it

lanza - yeah the viz is right. we are comparing punting (picking winners) to gambling with an edge. two totally different spheres

3set funnily enough ive also said, no matter how unfair the premium charge is, i wish i was paying it...of course that attitude would change the first wednesday its deducted

I always thought it would be more profitable to have an operation to get on at books rather than pay PC.

funny thing the premium charge.  Took me years to get to 100k.  Taken 18 months to get to 200k. Some of my best weeks came immediately after pc2 was introduced.

That and there's been a massive increase in cricket coverage.

20% whilst not liking it...i can make things work... 60% and as curly points out whats the point anymore. and id probably be better off believe it or not on daq or out in the real world.

Don't worry ''Sweetie'' no danger of you ever
paying the Premium Charge.

great thread, great discussions keep it going lads

more profitable to have an operation to get on at books

you mean getting bets on without restriction from bookies?

surely selection of winners is hard enough

Can somebody kindly tell me what triggers the premium charge? How much do you need to be in profit etc?

i think you'll be fine sheppy 

There must be some peoples who are needing to pay this tax but are finding way to not pay. Always peoples are finding way to do fiddling. What if peoples who have to pay tax are using good friends or family peoples betfair account. How would betfair peoples be knowing? I am not telling peoples to do this thing. If you are catched it would be illegal thing and you would be having big problem. But how would they be catching peoples doing this thing?

sheppy:

Premium Charge Summary
You will only be considered for the Premium Charge if, over the lifetime of your account, you satisfy the following criteria:
Your account is in profit;
Your total charges generated are less than 20%† of gross profits; and
You bet in more than 250 markets.
Two further conditions reduce the likelihood that you will be required to pay the Premium Charge:
Any single win that constitutes more than 50% of your gross profits over the lifetime of your account will be excluded from the calculation; and
Each customer will have a lifetime allowance of £1,000 against the Premium Charge.

viva why did you feel the need to indirectly call me an imbecile on the Football thread?

are you often so unfriendly to people for no reason?

seriously though viva, very few laymen/newbies would be able to get their heads round that..i think they deliberately make it ambiguous

Those who understand it, don't find it ambiguous, or that it may
be ambiguous to others.

you gonna stop with the endless inane questions at any point 3SP?

oh okay sorry is that what made you agree with the imbecile tag?

Thanks viva, that was much appreciated!

So my £300 quid I'm gonna get when Flipkins wins Wimbledon won't matter! Phew! That's a relief! Cmon Flipkins!!!

Haha it was £600 yesterday - made a few adjustments!

Another worry I've got is when I get £2000 from Faldo winning the Open Championship!

sheppy   tell me you havent backed faldo for the open?  he only plays the odd round for leisure these days, he should be a million to one

1000 faldo is a perfect example of why 1000 is the second most interesting price on betfair. it has to cover every level of probability from 0.1% down to 0.

you're way more likely to end up in PC territory laying 1000s than backing them.

Sorry scom, after all that you've taught me I've let you down badly! You can read what I've put on the golf forum.

I think it was the excitement of seeing him play again. I couldn't resist it!

oh okay sorry viva is that what made you agree with the imbecile tag?

viva - Please don't think badly of me for being stupid but what is the 1st most interesting price on Betfair?

I'll guess at 1.01???

correct, sheppy - for the same reason.

viva is that what made you agree with the imbecile tag?

In a way I'm glad that 1000 is the highest price on Betfair cos if it was higher it could really do some financial damage.

Call me a mug but if I took £2000 of somebody I'd feel like giving some of it back to them!

So I'll need the address of the person who layed me the Faldo bet!

if you find him ask for your 2 quid back 

correct, sheppy - for the same reason.

why does viva label me an imbecile for asking a question yet happily answers Sheppy?

ffs. you are that paul/bob idiot aren't you?

what!?

i'm simply asking why you are unfriendly to me for now reason, yet when others ask you stuff it's fine?

fine, you say you aren't and I think you are. we'll let other forumites form their own opinions.

...except, oh, you didn't say you aren't did you?

I have no idea what you're on about viva.


i'm simply asking why you are unfriendly to me for now reason, yet when others ask you stuff it's fine?

how is that fair?

scom - haha I won't need to ask for my £2 back cos he won't be having it!

You see the way it works is like this... Things happen for a reason and Faldo will win to make up for all the other crap that's been going on with my life!

It's payback time for Sheppy!!!

GL Sheppy!!

Thanks 3sp!

When Verdasco was winning 2-0 I wish someone hadn't told him that I'd bet on him!!!

Oh my god, it's Bob!!

Listen guys! I think you're all getting mixed up! It's Faldo, the 6 times major champion! Not Falco, the Amadeus guy!!!

"Amadeus Amadeus!"

Paul/Bob back what kept him? .... if it quacks like duck etc.

Faldo for the Open?he'd have more chance of success at the Flushing Meadow's one in August.

spot on No Moves!

another difference is a punter trys to pick a winner and lets it run

whereas a trader make a back bet and then lays hopefully at lower price. but how many tick lower will they trade out at??

also once they've done one full back/lay trade, do they go in again and back/lay once more?? how many times in one market/match?

Reply to the OP. If it's been covered then so be it ......... not much of a reader.

Firstly I'd say you need 12-24 months of successful punting with a good number of bets (1000+). You need to figure out your % edge, ie: your profit to turnover. To be confident your edge is a secure one to overcome bad runs you'd want to be high as possible. The actual number will depend on what sport(s) you specalise in. For 2/3 outcome sports you'd be doing really well to be above 5% but for horses its easily possible to be well over 10 or even 15%.

Next you you need to have a decent enough bank to earn what you need to survive at your projected profit to turnover. Now in year one this is not always possible but you need to figure out a way to increase your bank to the level you can as your living expenses cannot erode your betting bank year to year. The idea is it gradually increases. Maybe a loan from friend or bet for someone with their bank also share profits.

Next you need to plan for future. Successful betting/trading means new bookie accounts and/or premium charge. Can you betting method sustain that? Do you have the network/know how to get get around that?

Lastly remember having an edge and keeping an edge are two seperate things so you will always need to develop on your successful strategies. Good Luck!

You should ask your friends for a loan so you can bet on here? Now there's some prudent advice if I've ever head any.

To turn Pro I think you need to have no mortgage, ideally pay no rent either, no girlfriend, definitely no wife and no kids. Also there is a limited timespan to being a pro, maybe 15-20 years max. Need to factor in pension.

Worth bearing in mind if you have the skills to be a highly successful pro gambler you probably also have the skills to command a senior position in private industry or public sector. Good Thread.

i'm not sure it's possible due to losing bets and inevitable chasing/martingaling

inevitable chasing/martingaling

why is it inevitable? winners dont chase or follow losing systems if that helps

So if he's backing 1.40-1.49 shots what if a few lose in a row?

Impossible question to answer

wtf do you keep saying 'inevitable chasing' for pro punters

How would they be a pro in the first place if they do mug things

Do all pro's have an edge?

of course

so they wouldn't be trying to pick winners, they simply follow a strict formula/staking plan?

Yes , do the same thing over and over no doubt

so winning systems do exist for many people

do you think an edge is like I back every tennis player who won his last 2 games if they are above evens, for example?

well no, what if they have just beaten 2 players ranked 100 odd and the next game is v Murray and they are 2.4 . That would not be good.

yeah but this is just an example of a pro with an edge.

maybe they lay all horse favourites in fields of less than 5

is an edge not just finding a bet that has been statistically successful in the past and repeating it?

No.

Just more accurate pricing. I expect pro traders on football/cricket/tennis have models which show what the odds should be in relation to the score and time elapsed , and back or lay when the market is out of line. If their model is very accurate that is their edge.

but wouldn't bet 365, for example, already have that worked out and there for all to see?

why would they

because they are professional odds compilers?

So are pro punters.

Bet 365 have a big margin for error with the overround  so don't need to be so accurate . I doubt they are as good as pros here.

All pros have their own line on every bet.  That might be computer driven and written down, or just done roughly in their head.  If the book's line is different than their own line by a predetermined amount or percentage, it's a bet.

This is crystal clear in NFL betting.  That's it, that's how pros bet. People make it so complicated, but it comes down to the pros homemade line vs the books line.  Period.

Of course, the trick, skill, and art is making a reliable home made line, and not being afraid to jump on when you see the linemakers have a different opinion than yours.

This is also known as value betting, that other great debatable pro gambling topic.  In a nutshell, make your own reliable line for every bet.

because they are professional odds compilers?

Hiding behind the big bookie name is a 20 year old kid working for beer money, who would **** himself if he had to come up with a price without betfair/vegas/pinny or other bookies as a guide.

because they are professional odds compilers?

Hiding behind the big bookie name is a 20 year old kid working for beer money, who would **** himself if he had to come up with a price without betfair/vegas/pinny or other bookies as a guide.

leave 3setpoints out of this 

3setpoints makes some fair points. Regards 365 I find them very hard to beat,
that is, most of the time any margin I find over them, is wiped out by commission.
I take some satisfaction from that, in as much the fact that I mainly agree with
them, although bets are are hard to find.

B 365 accounts are a licence to print money - if you can't beat them (especially on horses) then you have to worry about your edge. You have no idea at the lengths I go to get accounts with them.

B 365 accounts are a licence to print money

Exactly, but they are good in my experience at closing down accnts.

The advice I wd give to anyone starting out is make sure b/f you place a bet that you have a sustainable strategy for getting on. We're talking about having a share of 8-12 placers' bets, each with their own sub-placers. The best place to recruit placers is from addicted losers--personally I've been tempted to try 'gamblers anonymous'-type groups, tho' these people probably want the thrill of betting, rather than the satisfaction of winning and wdn't pay up yr share of the winnings.

Winning is not difficult on the horses b/c 1) bm s are playing the mug market, not the winners, meaning they have no interest in pricing correctly on anything that has less than say 8% likelihood, 2) anyone w/ any skill in line-making is on bf--they wdn't work for the money the books are giving them. The books are just scraping from the exchange.

A good plan wd be for someone to learn how to win b/f betting, then to swing a multi-person operation into action. Sadly, I did it the opposite way, winning pennies to penny bets in the late 90s as an apprenticeship, gradually betting bigger and getting closed down.

racingguru bet 365 will happily take my custom

askari - bigtime loser right here

tho' these people probably want the thrill of betting, rather than the satisfaction of winning and wdn't pay up yr share of the winnings.

I disagree

On horse racing b365 make so many mistakes its unreal , but they probably don't care so much because it marks their card.

Not just talking about their overnight stuff. Taking those is sure to get your account closed quick time. Generally they are very easy to beat and generous with their ew terms, offers, bog etc.