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sheppy123
23 Jun 13 13:09
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Date Joined: 28 May 12
| Topic/replies: 2,522 | Blogger: sheppy123's blog
Like I've said in my previous posts, I'm poor at maths, and calculations in general really! God, what am I actually doing on here!!!

I'm considering this strategy for Wimbledon and I'd appreciate your thoughts on it.

God, I just know I'm gonna get some stick here, but I just can't stop myself!

Here goes...

Backing a player at big odds to win the tournament, and then laying them on every game.

Now, here's my line of thinking... Firstly, I believe due to the nature of Betfair that some players might be better than their odds suggest. (Oh no! Not that again!)
For some of their matches they could be odds on. Then Serena comes along and ruins everything!!!

I was wondering if anybody has tried this???
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Report sheppy123 June 23, 2013 4:28 PM BST
Several hours later...

I've been busy writing a program to help me in my quest...

It's not totally doomed. If Serena, Azarenka & Sharapova all wore blindfolds it would work!!!
Report cdog June 23, 2013 5:21 PM BST
There's an interesting section in Iain Fletcher's book "Game Set and Matched" in which he attempts the reverse of this on the 2003 US Open. He lays a player for the tournament and backs them in each round, and the player he chose was Andy Roddick. It's an interesting read.
Report sheppy123 June 23, 2013 5:59 PM BST
WOW! I never even considered doing it the other way around. Thanks! That's another 2% of hope I've got!!!
Report Northbouy June 23, 2013 6:45 PM BST
why do it with just one player, why not two.  They cant both win the tournament.
Report sheppy123 June 23, 2013 7:03 PM BST
Actually, I couldn't do it the other way around cos to lay something big first you need a lot of money in your account.

I'm looking into all the different combinations of things...
Report Contrarian2 June 24, 2013 10:09 AM BST
Iain Fletcher's book "Game Set and Matched"

A useful tome to have around if you run out of toilet paper.
Report ZEALOT June 24, 2013 4:57 PM BST
sheppy - you are thinking too hard .
Report ZEALOT June 24, 2013 4:58 PM BST
it is much simpler than u think
Report sheppy123 June 24, 2013 7:39 PM BST
ZEALOT - I think you're right! I over complicate things! BUT... I think I do it more cos money is involved?

It's like I know the answer to 6x6. It's 36. BUT, if you said it'll cost me £100 if I get it wrong, I'll spend ages checking it.

I don't know about anybody else but when I joined Betfair it took me ages to get my head around not getting your stake back. And decimal odds took a while too.

Braindead - that's me!!!
Report ZEALOT June 25, 2013 10:53 AM BST
heres a little angle you can look into .

Study the m.o of about 5-6 trainers .

How they fare with 2yo , first run after a break , first run in a handicap , headgear , time of year ,  aw to turf .etc etc etc etcetc .

For example folk follow , Hughes , Hannon and Stoute blind at royal ascot -- but if you research they represent the  worst value  possible .
Report ZEALOT June 25, 2013 10:57 AM BST
^^^^^

Ryan Moore not Hannon ExcitedDevil
Report sheppy123 June 25, 2013 12:48 PM BST
Thanks ZEALOT! Phew! That sounds like rocket science!!!

I keep meaning to go deeper into horse racing. I've realised that there's no straight forward systems out there? By straight forward I mean stuff like laying all odds on favourites etc.
Report 3setpoints June 30, 2013 6:10 PM BST
how is this going?
Report sheppy123 June 30, 2013 6:25 PM BST
Nowhere so far! I keep looking into different ways I can make money. I'm rapidly running out of ideas!!!

The only luck I have is bad luck!

I'm so sorry for anyone that bet on Vettel today! It was my fault!!!
Report 3setpoints June 30, 2013 6:27 PM BST
betting game is tough
Report sheppy123 June 30, 2013 6:31 PM BST
Isn't it just!!!

What makes it tough is the fact it seems so easy!
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