General Betting
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Backing favourites blindly @ SP definitely isn't the way to go, BUT I'm wondering if backing them many hours before the race using BOG prices would be profitable?
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Without any hard data, I am guessing it probably is depending on what price region. Anything odds-on up to maybe 2/1 would likely turn a profit due to getting BOG, IMO.
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Also, you just have to be pretty confident that it will go off fav, and in the right price range.
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best odds guaranteed, wonder if any bookie had nadal at 9 bucks to win french tennis final
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Thanks for the response guys.
Due to spending hours running programs through horse racing results I've realised that even a couple of percent difference in odds makes a lot of difference long term. So I was thinking that I might get this from BOG prices. I was thinking more along the lines of horses that are pretty much odds on so you know they're gonna start as favourites. The trouble is, I've no data to go off, and paper trading can be very tedious. I'm definitely gonna look more into it... |
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I know some make a profit with bog in small runner races say 4-5 runners and they back all the runners with different bog firms. ideally you need to find small runner races where they are betting to a low percentage and be able to get the best prices available on each runner with firms offering bog. if one or more drifts just before the off you'll be in a no lose position.
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Thanks mr singh, that makes good sense.
My 1st day analysing BOG results has been very poor! Throughout the day I made a note of 11 horses that looked as if they were gonna start as favourite and who's odds were pretty much the same as Betfair's. 5 of them started with lower odds on Betfair BUT 3 of them had non runners afterwards so that wasn't good. How much the rule 4 deductions would've been I don't know? Only 2 were what I wanted... 4.35 Salisbury - Ghanian 2.5 (2.01 Betfair SP) 5.15 Roscommon - Bronte 2.2 (2.09 Betfair SP) My research continues... |
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My last message must've sounded really confusing! Why would I possibly want the BOG price to go down?
I'm basically trying to get a better price than the Betfair SP. If I back a horse with Betfair in the morning and it goes up I'm doomed. But with BOG it'll hopefully start somewhere around the Betfair SP. Phew!!! BUT I'm also thinking of using BOG in the opposite way where I actually want the price to go up. Haha, the truth is I don't know what I want!!! |
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I wish there was a way of deleting my last 2 messages cos they were garbage!!!
It's just dawned on me that if I took a BOG price and it went up, it wouldn't matter what the odds on Betfair were. |
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Fact is, favourites generally mirror the BSP price once you include commission, so you want to be on a horse you are almost certain will go off fav. If it goes of shorter, you're getting value. If it drifts, it's likely there won't be much in the BSP and ISP so you're laughing.
There is definitely a profitable angle in this and it's just a matter of whittling it down a bit. Not too hard IMO. |
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Thanks CrowsEye that makes a lot of sense!
I was getting really confused before I went to bed last night. After my message at 22.43 I started getting paranoid wondering whether I'd got things right and my head just went to pieces! My message at 23.18 is ready for the Recycle bin!!! The truth is, I value you guys and you're SO helpful it makes me wanna say the right things! |
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Remember that if you win a couple of races betting with the bookies they will probably remove the best odds guarenteed from your account.
As far as know Betstar is the only firm that makes this public: BEST OF THE BEST (BOB) Betstar guarantees to match the higher of the best dividend of the three Australian totes or Top Fluc. ......................... This offer is a genuine offer intended for recreational gamblers only. Professional gamblers, bookmakers, bookmaker staff or those seen to be abusing the offer may have the right to participate revoked and will not be entitled to BOB. |
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frog2 - Phew! So if you make a profit with BOG you'll lose access to it! That's crazy, but I can believe it!
At first I never had a problem with bookies BUT several things have happened recently. Pinnacle are definitely the way to go regarding rules. I wish other bookies would follow suit! |
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frog2 - Phew! So if you make a profit with BOG you'll lose access to it! That's crazy, but I can believe it!
At first I never had a problem with bookies BUT several things have happened recently. Pinnacle are definitely the way to go regarding rules. I wish other bookies would follow suit! |
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Pinnacle are great for soccer. The fixed limits are there for everyone. They are bookmakers. They change to odds if the sharps are on something. No racing though.
The UK/Gib bookies are for recreational (losing) users only. If you start to win you will get a message like this.... Following a review of your account, we regret to inform you that we are no longer able to offer you our telephone betting service and whilst our online service remains available to you, betting restrictions will be applied on any future bets placed. |
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Pinnacle's odds are awesome! And it seems unlikely they'll penalise you.
BUT... I wish they'd make the site more presentable? Everything seems so cluttered? Marathonbet are a bit like this too. Sometimes I can't find things and give up. I think the UK bookies could be losing money by turning a lot of punters away. I thought it was all about balancing their books? I think as exchanges become more popular things will change? |
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Exchanges are good for inplay soccer and late betting on horses. But if you win you have to pay the PC.
For early horses you have to scratch about trying to get on with the recreational bookies. Its tricky but worth it because their odds are so out of line. If you want to bet prematch use Pinnacle (and SBO if you like handicaps as their 1X2 markets are not great). If you want to bet football favourites you might want to get what you can on with the recreational books. Try Asian view for Pinnacle. |