A question.

I don't think this applies to Betfair but I've read in the past that bookies make the draw odds bigger cos most people want to back a team to win.

It just indicates the game is expected to be close (therefore lower scoring if anything)

The Draw will only be higher than the underdog if the favourite is near to Evens or shorter

Jun 5, 2013 -- 12:10AM, sheppy123 wrote:

I don't think this applies to Betfair but I've read in the past that bookies make the draw odds bigger cos most people want to back a team to win.

That doesn't surprise me. Most leisurely punters aren't going to back the draw so they can cheer on the draw when watching on the telebox.

one thing with the draw:

common sense would suggest that the more closely matched two teams are the more likely they are to draw. yet the two win prices moving closer together often pushes the draw price out.

worth thinking about that, imo.

In a perfect match in which both sides are thought to
be have the same chance, nearly all of those type of
matches will have the draw biggest. In comparison with
similarly evenly matched sides, the draw will expand
or shrink very gradually if the goal expectancy is
high. Also matches with a short priced favourite will
see the draw become shorter than the less favoured side.
The lower the goal expectancy the lower the draw price
is usual. This evenings match between England and Italy,
is a good example, despite a low goal expectancy, the
draw is the largest price.

common sense would suggest that the more closely matched two teams are the more likely they are to draw. yet the two win prices moving closer together often pushes the draw price out.

Indeed - from the Green All Over blog 26.Feb.2013 on the merits of backing the draw:

Football is not an easy sport to make money from. It’s hugely popular, and the statistics are studied by millions. Backing the draw is unfashionable, but that is exactly why there is value. No one watches a game cheering for the draw, so it is under bet. I love goalless matches – I call them the ‘perfect’ draw. The supposed success of “Lay The Draw” as a system also works in our favour. Plus, in a match where the two teams are equally fancied, money comes in on both teams, yet while logic should mean that the draw price shortens, it rarely drops below 3.15 (one end of season match in 2011 was priced at 3.05 in France).