General Betting
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Now the season is over its time to look back at how it went betting wise. I had a good season apart from November and April where I was masacred by some odd results. Overall Im well down because I started chasing which is the biggest problem for most punters. Looking back over the my account statment I have come to the conclusion that football is too random and unpredictable to make a profit on. Am I right or wrong, Ive tried a few new strategies and might be on to something for next season but overall most markets will make you money and suck you in but then blow you up at any stage.
What strategy did you try this season and fail at ? Theres a lot of casulties on here every season and I often wonder should exchanges be available to Joe Soap. Its a dangerous tool and many punters try to be small bookies and go into big debts as they are unable to manage it, whats your view on that.
What strategy did you try this season and fail at ? Theres a lot of casulties on here every season and I often wonder should exchanges be available to Joe Soap. Its a dangerous tool and many punters try to be small bookies and go into big debts as they are unable to manage it, whats your view on that.
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Learn to price up a football match .
When prices appear on here back/lay accordingly using half kelly . simple
When prices appear on here back/lay accordingly using half kelly . simple
agree with Brian - learn to price up and if footie is unpredictable then try betting on unlikely results ,it might pay 
caviar empty and all that latin business
caviar empty and all that latin business
try laying markets such as 6.5, 7.5 etc at 1.01/1.02, for very liability but a few early goals and youve got a great trading position
what is the range of markets you are betting on? I only bet on Div2 and Conf as I struggle to follow more leagues.
nothing wrong with that burton, specialising is good business
It's important to be honest when you review these things as it is the only way to learn. Did you lose simply because of bad chasing? Let me ask you a question, if you had bet the same amount for every game throughout the season would you be up or down for the year?
If the answer is you would have been down, then chasing is not your big problem it's that your bets that you are making are not value.
If the answer is you would have been up, then the answer is simple, stop chasing and just bet the same amount no matter what.
As for me, my biggest problem in the past has been back-fitting.
If the answer is you would have been down, then chasing is not your big problem it's that your bets that you are making are not value.
If the answer is you would have been up, then the answer is simple, stop chasing and just bet the same amount no matter what.
As for me, my biggest problem in the past has been back-fitting.
Bet only when the odds are at least 20% in your favour,
that is for example getting 2.20 minimum about a 2.0
a 2.00 chance. If you get good at pricing up, you will
find value very difficult to find unfortunately! The market
gets it right 95% of the time.GL.
that is for example getting 2.20 minimum about a 2.0
a 2.00 chance. If you get good at pricing up, you will
find value very difficult to find unfortunately! The market
gets it right 95% of the time.GL.
Kenilworth : Bet only when the odds are at least 20% in your favour,
that is for example getting 2.20 minimum about a 2.0
a 2.00 chance. If you get good at pricing up, you will
find value very difficult to find unfortunately! The market
gets it right 95% of the time.GL.
20% is a lot to ask for, find ways of making 10% value and you'll make a good living, but in your example above Kenilworth, getting 2.2 about a 2.0 shot is 10% value not 20%, although that's a very common misconception.
Agreed, value is difficult to find, but it has to be difficult by definition, I mean if it was easy it would disappear in an instant to every Tom, Dick and Harry, then become difficult again :)
that is for example getting 2.20 minimum about a 2.0
a 2.00 chance. If you get good at pricing up, you will
find value very difficult to find unfortunately! The market
gets it right 95% of the time.GL.
20% is a lot to ask for, find ways of making 10% value and you'll make a good living, but in your example above Kenilworth, getting 2.2 about a 2.0 shot is 10% value not 20%, although that's a very common misconception.
Agreed, value is difficult to find, but it has to be difficult by definition, I mean if it was easy it would disappear in an instant to every Tom, Dick and Harry, then become difficult again :)
Trevh, 2.20 is 6/5 whereas 2.00 is 5/5, potential profit 1.20 and 1.00 respectively
=20% diff. I stick to 20% to cover commission and self assurance. As I don't get too
many bets, when I do, I feel confident with the bets I do get. Calculating your way
say, 11/10 about an 1/1 chance on here, after commission gets only 4.5% and that, for
me is too thin.
=20% diff. I stick to 20% to cover commission and self assurance. As I don't get too
many bets, when I do, I feel confident with the bets I do get. Calculating your way
say, 11/10 about an 1/1 chance on here, after commission gets only 4.5% and that, for
me is too thin.
One thing most gamblers lack is patience
They want it all in one weekend. Another thing is the ability to handle the mental trauma of having money in play. Most find it incredibly uncomfortable due to overstaking or betting out of their comfort zone. Therefore they cannot handle a loss so try to recover immediately (chase).
The best you can hope for betting on football is 5-20% roi.
So with a modest bank of 5k betting 200 a time.
500 bets a year so turnover of 100,000k
Expected profit (if you are any good) 5-20k
Like I said most want the 5k in one weekend and are not prepared for the long haul. You can have a return on investment of only 1% after 100 bets, you can be -3%, this is where you need the patience and determination to believe in yourself to turn it around. You will not turn it around with one big bet, you have to continue with the same strategy, plugging away until the 'spurt' arrives. It takes character to make a profit. And even the greatest football bettors won't make a profit every year -- but crucially, they won't blow bank after bank either.
I recommend waiting until round 13 before investing heavily. You need 6 home and 6 away games before you can start to dig out the key stats that help with a selection. I don't believe it is necessary to have your own prices but you need to have a sense of value and that only comes with experience.
They want it all in one weekend. Another thing is the ability to handle the mental trauma of having money in play. Most find it incredibly uncomfortable due to overstaking or betting out of their comfort zone. Therefore they cannot handle a loss so try to recover immediately (chase).
The best you can hope for betting on football is 5-20% roi.
So with a modest bank of 5k betting 200 a time.
500 bets a year so turnover of 100,000k
Expected profit (if you are any good) 5-20k
Like I said most want the 5k in one weekend and are not prepared for the long haul. You can have a return on investment of only 1% after 100 bets, you can be -3%, this is where you need the patience and determination to believe in yourself to turn it around. You will not turn it around with one big bet, you have to continue with the same strategy, plugging away until the 'spurt' arrives. It takes character to make a profit. And even the greatest football bettors won't make a profit every year -- but crucially, they won't blow bank after bank either.
I recommend waiting until round 13 before investing heavily. You need 6 home and 6 away games before you can start to dig out the key stats that help with a selection. I don't believe it is necessary to have your own prices but you need to have a sense of value and that only comes with experience.
cheers. When betting becomes boring and a chore to log on everyday -- you know you are on the right lines.
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