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sheppy123
03 Jun 13 10:54
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Date Joined: 28 May 12
| Topic/replies: 2,522 | Blogger: sheppy123's blog
I'm sure that many gamblers on here wish the same thing!

OK so I've traded several people to win the French at big odds and I'm scared that they might get beat, so I start putting money on the opposition. This can get really complex!

I basically want to create a win/win situation. BUT, Nadal & Serena make this task extremely difficult cos when they play my 500/1 in the final, they're gonna be something like 1.1!
Pause • Switch to Standard View I wish I was good at maths!
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Report sweetchildofmine • June 3, 2013 3:14 PM BST
but your man wouldnt be 500/1 in the final, more like 4/1, at which point you could lay him  Confused
Report sheppy123 • June 3, 2013 5:04 PM BST
Phew! 4/1 that would be a dream. I reckon anybody playing Nadal or Djokovic will be at least 10/1. Federer maybe a bit less???

I just hope they're not gonna be that high where laying him won't be worth it.

As for Serena, I dread to think what her odds are gonna be like in the final which I'm sure she'll be in!
Report JPG • June 3, 2013 7:10 PM BST
If your opening bet is 500/1, trading out at 10/1 is fantastic place to be in.

Even if you only had £2 at 500/1, at 10/1 a lay of £100 will get you a £98 profit all round. If you fancy the outsider, simply lay off your £2 (or whatever the amount was) stake for a chance of great pay out.
Report sheppy123 • June 3, 2013 9:16 PM BST
Thanks JPG, that was a great reply.

The problem I've got, and this is why I mentioned maths, is cos by the time my big odds players get to the final I've already spent quite a bit on other players.

For instance, because I'll get about £500 if Ferrer wins (dream on!) I want to make sure that I get something out of it if he loses. So I've been laying him on every match.

And this daft logic has been applied to all my other players! I will get £2500 if Robredo wins so I feel the need to cover him somehow.

It gets very confusing!
Report JPG • June 3, 2013 10:59 PM BST
From the sounds of it, you've been needlessly complicating things by betting on individual matches in attempt to round out your overall book. In future, when taking the same initial approach, just keep everything to the outright market (except in rare circumstances but don't worry about that now.)

Just remember, you've nearly always got two sides to every risk that you can play and if you keep all bets/trades on the one market, its much easier to get a snapshot of your overall position at any moment.

Without seeing the exact numbers etc involved no one hear can give you exact advice/instructions on what to do so Id recommend writing out a list of every single bet you've done so far on the tournament thst is relevant and start building your own spreadsheet etc to calculate your position.
Report sheppy123 • June 3, 2013 11:14 PM BST
Thanks JPG for the great advice!

I have started getting more organized and making a list of all my bets. I do tend to focus more on the outright markets.

For me, the biggest problem is trying to combat Nadal & Serena. If they got knocked out I'd be in the money.

But like you said, betting on individual matches is just complicating things.

Strangely enough I usually come out better off in tournaments but only just and it's definitely not been worth all the messing about with calculations etc.

But, I've got to admit that luck has played a big part!
Report pxb • June 18, 2013 6:49 AM BST
As JPG says, keep records in a spreadsheet.

Otherwise take my approach. Whatever has happened in previous games is past and has no relevance to what I do in the next game. I don't keep any records and rarely look at my P&L history. All I care about is my balance. If it is going up, I know I am doing enough right.

I know I could make more money if I kept and analyzed records of all my bets, but I can't be bothered.
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