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JPG
01 Jun 13 17:57
Joined:
Date Joined: 26 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 182 | Blogger: JPG's blog
At the time of writing, odds of the respective teams are 3.3, 3.5 and 3.35. This is 88.7% of the book.

Now, I appreciate with a transfer window still to elapse, not to mention a season of variables, theres risk attached but Im still surprised these three teams aren't nearer the 95% mark of the book.

Another way of looking at it is that its a risky saving opportunity that can yield over 12% (even assuming 5% commission). In fact, its not beyond the realms of possibility that the yield could be guaranteed courtesy of trading from around January onwards.

Are Arsenal, Liverpool and co really posting that much threat to the title next season? Am I missing something obvious? (Don't get me wrong here, by no means am I stating "dead cert" etc but right now,
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Report tobermory June 2, 2013 6:38 PM BST
88.7% seems high enough to me

The Gap between Top 3 and the rest was not that spectacular to be thinking they cannot be passed , none of them were that good last season (yes United went a long way clear but they were flattered by that, so many 1 goal wins)

Without Ferguson i cannot see anything but a decline for United , City seem to have too many players without hunger to win more . Mourinho could still have issues with being expected to pick players he don't rate (this Schurrle guy has already been signed apparently without any say so from a manager)

A lot depends on whether Spurs/Liverpool keep Bale/Suarez , who else they bring in ,and who Arsenal might sign

Those 3 might still look well short of Title Calibre but the bar is much lower than it was 5 years ago so i would not back the top 3 @1/8 or whatever you are planning.
Report kenilworth June 3, 2013 10:06 AM BST
The top three will have new managers and that cannot be the
perfect situation to be betting at 1/8. There are question
marks against all three new coaches for different reasons and
broadly speaking I agree with tobermory.
Report Darlo Bantam June 3, 2013 11:32 AM BST
It's so tempting to Dutch back all three of them.
Report JPG June 3, 2013 12:04 PM BST
Thanks for the responses.

Some good points and I definitely agree that Man Utd's winning margin flattered them this season. That side was sub par of many of the previous Fergie teams.

However, I genuinely feel Man City and Chelsea, for differing reasons, will post stronger challenges next season. Man City had the hangover having won it in 2011/12 and Chelsea's distractions and fixture list pile up are well known and documented. And even with the relatively poor Man Utd team last season, they were clearly ahead of Arsenal and below.

The new managers don't seem to be a negative for me either, if anything, a more positive omen? Two of the three new guys have extensive Premiership experience too.

I suppose much of my thinking stems from my view that the other teams are too far away from being "winning level." I certainly expect Liverpool, for example, to improve on last season but the distance (in terms of both league points and level of play on the pitch) is quite substantial for them to overcome in just one season in order to scupper the titled bet. Two of the leagues strongest performers last season in Bale and Suarez have doubts over their future which only add more doubt of their teams overcoming the hurdles.

Framed another way, 8/1 that anyone not listed in the thread title to win it? Hhhmm, seems more lay value to me then neutral or back.

Thanks again for the responses.
Report viva el presidente! June 3, 2013 5:35 PM BST
arsenal are the unknown. the market is pricing in uncertainty about their financial power over the closed season. plus the fact that all three of the 3.x clubs have new managers.

also to a lesser extent how effectively liverpool and spurs might spend big windfalls. and the usual little bit of inflation due to the time your money would likely be tied up.
Report smithy91 June 3, 2013 6:52 PM BST
Looks a good call this jpg. Do you not think chelsea are a bit short though there not going to win the league with torres and ba leading the attack imo. I layed chelsea in this market last season for the same reason they had a strong start but I felt something had to give. I suppose though mourinho will be after a new forward though wont he? If he doesn't sign one I will be laying them
Report JPG June 3, 2013 7:05 PM BST
Smithy,

Yeah you could be right about the Chelsea lay value or if not, some neutrality existing. Obviously Mourinho momentum in the past few weeks has hardened the price downwards but the fact that theres solid amounts of cash on both sides of the book for them suggests you could be right.

However, assuming my thread title/OP is correct in that value exists, then the collective value there is likely to more then the lay value existing on Chelsea. And with Chelsea being an obvious threat to win, Id be happy to sacrifice the relatively small amount of value on Chelsea to encompass the overall 3 team group on my side.

Another angle on all of this is, assume some one dutched back all three teams, are there any realistic trading approaches assuming this starting position/opening trade?
Report viva el presidente! June 3, 2013 7:58 PM BST
yes, wait for the other three semi-realistic runners to drift, then lay all three back to an all green book.
Report smithy91 June 3, 2013 8:00 PM BST
Cheers .jpg well I don't have the balls to dutch all three I'm having visions of another invincibles from arsenal and winning the title coming from nowhere. However this thread has got me thinking I was expecting to find Liverpool trading at 60 but they are 36.now I can't leave that alone. Same thing happened last season they were trading at 27 got tanked 3-0 away at west brom on opening day and drifted to 80 lol. I'd be quite happy to leave 5k red on them even though it's not ideal to tie that much money up.what do others think surely Liverpool are to short chances are I'd be trading out much higher less than a month into the new season!
Report JPG June 3, 2013 8:47 PM BST
Viva,

Do you believe such an occurrence is possible even before the season starts? Or are you talking more of a generic, throughout the season type of thing?
Report viva el presidente! June 3, 2013 9:09 PM BST
who knows? probably, but then if arsenal signed someone of the rooney level it might go the other way.

worth pointing out that taking out the absolute no hopers it's actually a 100.3% book, so probably some value on the back side somewhere.
Report smithy91 June 3, 2013 9:09 PM BST
Jpg are you planning to keep this thread going through the season would be good if you are really want to get invloved this year with the winner market. A quick question to! Does anyone know any traders who trade the winner market heavily whilst the 3pm kickoffs are in play. Surely money to be made there I would of thought?
Report sweetchildofmine June 3, 2013 9:13 PM BST
hopefully the thread will run through the season and as long as the trolls stay away, it should be entertaining..personally i think arsenal will go close next season without actually winning it...liverpool have to be laid at any price
Report viva el presidente! June 3, 2013 9:17 PM BST
yes, I agree - arsenal have a slim but real chance next season.
Report sheppy123 June 3, 2013 9:40 PM BST
I'm not a big football fan but the difference in odds between Liverpool @ Everton doesn't seem right to me?

Liverpool @ 34

Everton @ 530
Report smithy91 June 3, 2013 9:41 PM BST
Sweet Liverpool are 36 pure value lay I've got to get involved there. Suarez future uncertain aswell. Having said that I was quite impressed with them after sturridge signed he's class him.worse case scenario Liverpool hovering around topspot half way through season I will red out :(
Report sweetchildofmine June 3, 2013 9:42 PM BST
trust me, you wont have to red out
Report smithy91 June 3, 2013 9:42 PM BST
Was thinking exactly the same sheppy!
Report smithy91 June 3, 2013 9:42 PM BST
Was thinking exactly the same sheppy!
Report Darlo Bantam June 3, 2013 9:52 PM BST
Liverpool have next to no chance of winning the title. 34s is a screaming lay me price. It's just a very poor return though over 9 months.
Report smithy91 June 3, 2013 9:57 PM BST
True darlo. I'm trying to think like every penny counts so going to lay them big. It's the closest thing to free money I think. If they do win it I will quit gambling and find something else to do :)
Report viva el presidente! June 3, 2013 10:03 PM BST
you won't have to wait 9 months if they're three figures by november though.
Report smithy91 June 3, 2013 10:05 PM BST
Yes viva and I will trade out to get my funds back in the bank!
Report sheppy123 June 3, 2013 10:33 PM BST
12% is a lot compared to what you'd get in a bank!

I've been playing about with figures since I read this post. For me the biggest drag would be having my money tied up for a long time.

It might be worth lumping more money on the team you fancy and just getting your money back for the others? Or a slight loss even?

Chelsea are 3.5 with the bookies so there wouldn't be any commission.
Report JPG June 3, 2013 10:54 PM BST
Smithy,

I originally created the thread to spark debate on a proposition/opportunity that Im genuinely considering (although I haven't acted on it at all yet) and thought it worthwhile to squeeze out some other info/perspectives that hadn't occurred to me.

However, Im quite prepared to keep the thread updated of my own developments if others would like to hear about it :)

By the way, the prem winner market is actively traded during games throughout the season but obviously has a different dynamic to other football markets. Ive dabbled in it myself at low stake values but there is opportunity out there.
Report smithy91 June 3, 2013 11:14 PM BST
Cheers jpg thats a great help. I think this season starting with low stakes it could be time to get involved when games are in play!
Report smithy91 June 3, 2013 11:15 PM BST
Sheppy I'm pretty sure there will.be a handful of punters on here who lay liverpool massive every season for the title likewise when England get the world cup lol. 12% is resonable :)
Report sheppy123 June 3, 2013 11:29 PM BST
Laying @ big odds scares the crap out of me, and although laying Liverpool seems like easy money, I'd be on edge thinking that it's just my luck they'd perform a miracle!

My problem is this... You could successfully lay Liverpool for the next 10 years but then they win and you've made a big loss.
Report smithy91 June 3, 2013 11:41 PM BST
True enough sheepy I suppose if dominance started to switch back you would have to be careful. If suarez stays sturridge goes up another level coutinho takes off I could be redding out lol. You never know.
Report Darlo Bantam June 3, 2013 11:43 PM BST
You're right. You can't look at this lay in isolation. Laying big odds is the reverse of backing short odds. You have to do it enough times to pay for the times when it blows up in your face. Personally, I think Liverpool should be a lot longer than 34, certainly three figures, but it's not beyond the realms of possibility that they do win it.
Report tobermory June 4, 2013 12:43 AM BST

Jun 3, 2013 -- 5:14PM, smithy91 wrote:


Cheers jpg thats a great help. I think this season starting with low stakes it could be time to get involved when games are in play!


I would have thought liquidity on this while Chelsea,United et al are playing would be dire as people just would not leave big bets up to be taken

Report viva el presidente! June 4, 2013 12:53 AM BST
more or less, tobes. you do get bits left up though, especially early season.
Report tobermory June 4, 2013 12:58 AM BST
I can't see the attraction in a single big odds lay on this and just leaving it (or trading out at a particular point).

No harm laying big prices when the selection should be a lot bigger but much better to commit to the market, back and lay everything,  be involved all through the season.

I do that for Euros/World Cups but they only last a month, would like to do it on this but , yes , it's a long time to to have whatever amount tied up.

btw Liverpool are 16/1 with Coral  Crazy
Report pumpkinslayertoo June 5, 2013 12:38 PM BST
Last year I got 3.5 on united which was stupidly big. You would have thought after all these years of them dominating, and man city being very lucky to win, that they should have been favorites. This year I see them as a lay. Ferguson was the key, and at the odds Chelsea look the value to me.
Report viva el presidente! June 5, 2013 3:17 PM BST
when did you get the 3.5? before or after rvp chose them? before or after city made an unfathomable b0llocks of the summer transfer market?

prices on winners often look stupidly big after the fact. it doesn't mean they were. I can make a decent case for all three of the front runners - and a weaker but tenable case for arsenal; which to me suggests the prices aren't that far out.
Report sheppy123 June 5, 2013 3:33 PM BST
I also got 3.5 for United and I've just looked it up so I could help out. It was in May 2012 so it was before RVP.
Report smithy91 June 5, 2013 5:03 PM BST
After van Persie signed united went 3.2 and below I think
Report henok June 6, 2013 2:52 PM BST
put everything you have on chelsea to win the league. and a decent sum to cover your stakes on arsenal. and dont forget to remember and thank me at the end of the season
Report sweetchildofmine June 6, 2013 3:37 PM BST
the more i think about it, the more im thinking arsenal could be a terrific opening trade
Report sheppy123 June 6, 2013 5:28 PM BST
schom - Do you think Arsenal are too big or too low at the moment?
Report JPG June 6, 2013 6:04 PM BST
"the more i think about it, the more im thinking arsenal could be a terrific opening trade"

Is that opening trade a back bet or lay bet?! :)

I must say, Im surprised at the level of respect, if not optimism, that surrounds Arsenal on this thread. They've only just recently struggled to get the Champions league and even that required a 2 month good spell that was littered with 1-0 wins whilst hardly playing scintillating stuff.

Personally, I feel theyre going to need extra investment (levels that are "reported" in the press at the moment) in order to simply grab onto 3rd place's (whoever that maybe) coat tails.

Ah well, I guess that's why we have a market :)
Report sweetchildofmine June 6, 2013 6:47 PM BST
sorry i meant start with a back, i know they traditionally are slow starters but iv got a gut feeling this will be the season that wenger finally utilises the funds available to him, again im not too sure they will win it but i can see them trading much shorter
Report sweetchildofmine June 6, 2013 7:40 PM BST
actually can i retract that last post? just found out theyre after stephen taylor  Surprised
Report viva el presidente! June 6, 2013 8:03 PM BST
I must say, Im surprised at the level of respect, if not optimism, that surrounds Arsenal on this thread. They've only just recently struggled to get the Champions league and even that required a 2 month good spell that was littered with 1-0 wins whilst hardly playing scintillating stuff.

----------

the reasons the market's sniffing around arsenal are:

1 persistent stories that they finally have money to spend and are pursuing higher level players than recently.
2 no key players on the way out
3 the three shorter teams all having new managers.

if you look at the last couple of seasons as beginning as damage limitation exercises and ending up with title winning form, there should be no damage to limit this august, meaning they might run the others closer.

personally, I think the price is about right. single digits would be too short, anything over 16s and they'd be tempting.
Report Darlo Bantam June 6, 2013 10:44 PM BST
2 - no key players on the way out

Have they got any key players left?
Report viva el presidente! June 6, 2013 10:56 PM BST
well, if not they got more points last season without any than the previous two.
Report tobermory June 7, 2013 3:17 AM BST
I must say, Im surprised at the level of respect, if not optimism, that surrounds Arsenal on this thread. They've only just recently struggled to get the Champions league and even that required a 2 month good spell that was littered with 1-0 wins whilst hardly playing scintillating stuff.

That's what most people say : that United were miles ahead of Arsenal while Chelsea and City underachieved but still finished in front of them in spite of Arsenal being lucky to get as many points as they did. So United should be mid 80s again and City/Chelsea should also reach 80+

People can't see how Arsenal are going to get 88 or so pts when they just got 73 that probably ought to have been 68 .It is fairly reasonable.

But another way of looking at it is that surely United cannot get anywhere near 89pts again with all their 1 goal wins , and that City and Chelsea got 76 or so because thats all they are worth,  just not all that good, and shouldn't be expected to do much better points wise. Then you are looking at 78/79pts , which is not much of a gap to bridge.

I really don't see what the players City and Chelsea are being linked with are going to do to transform them, they mostly seem to be of the same level as the players they have already.
Report JPG June 7, 2013 10:49 AM BST
Thanks all for your responses.

A lot of this optimism seems to surround the "paper talk" of transfer season. This is understandable with no actual matches to digest and discuss, especially with no major summer tournament on.

However, I should divulge the enormous chip on my shoulder when it comes to transfer season :) Time and again, for years now, Ive seen markets, pundits, press and fans over-react to who has come in and who has left etc.

Also, last years winning points total was nothing unusual:

2013 - 89 pts
2012 - 89 pts
2011 - 80 pts
2010 - 86 pts
2009 - 90 pts
2008 - 87 pts

Arsenal finished 4 pts behind the winner in 2007/2008. Since then, every season, they've been substantially behind the winners. And if anything, have got slowly worse each year. In my view, heavy investment is required here simply to stop the rot.

No key players expected to leave is a start but its hardly a reason to be more positive about them now - it was a reason to be more negative in previous seasons. Ie, I see that's a neutral signal.

I also have a suspicion the market is using the 3 new managers aspect as a bit of an excuse, especially as two of them have substantial Premiership experience and one of which even has it at the same club.
Report tobermory June 9, 2013 12:37 AM BST
I really wouldn't take the 89pt winners totals of the last 2 seasons as evidence that the standard is comparable to 5 years ago .It is rather evidence of how poor most of the teams are now.

Last season the gap between 7th and 8th was bigger than the gap between 8th and 18th ! You have 7 good teams and 13 that could easily be relegated .

5 years ago you had 'The Big 4' , probably the 4 best teams in Europe at the time, then you had a bunch of teams like Everton,Villa,Blackburn,Portsmouth,City that were 20pts+ superior in quality to the relegation candidates.

Last season they were a great many soft points available , which United were more efficient(maybe lucky) in hoovering up.

If Arsenal's team this season was as good as the 2007/08 team i'd probably make them about Evens to win it . So,yes, Arsenal have declined a lot, but so have the others .

The standard of title winners right now is low ,and i can't see why it should suddenly improve with the new managers coming in,  so though Arsenal need to improve with the summer signings, the improvement required is not so great as last season's table suggests .And the same goes for Spurs and Liverpool.
Report JPG June 12, 2013 12:36 PM BST
Well, to keep people posted (as requested earlier), Ive decided to go ahead with this but since my OP, the market is indicating better opening positions. Current back prices show 87.5% of the book as opposed to 88.7% at the time of the OP.

My entry point for Chelsea was 3.55 and was matched but amazingly, my cheeky scalping attempt to steal a tick was matched at 3.5 (thanks to whoever ploughed into them in the early hours of this morning!) Obviously, this means I know need to start all 3 bets again.

I now have 3 entry bets in (all currently unmatched) but if they are successful, they'd represent a 84.2% of the book, paying a 17.8% "interest rate" if successful. No doubt this is all subject to change and to complete the trio, Ill have to nudge at least one into a shorter price, which in turn, would lead to smaller payouts but Im comfortable with plan (at the moment anyway!)

Part 1 has started, part 2 (the bit where Bale and Suarez go abroad and we find out Arsenal had their money in a Cypriot bank all this time) should be with us soon :)
Report sheppy123 June 12, 2013 1:16 PM BST
Does the lack of Ferguson have to be taken into account, or do you think Utd will do just as well without him?

It's like unknown territory. Is it possible that Utd without him could end up as a mid table team?

I'm not a massive football fan and I often joke that it's the players that are kicking the ball about, not the manager!
Report sheppy123 June 12, 2013 1:27 PM BST
In the last season, if Everton and Utd completely swapped players would Everton have won the league??? It sounds ridiculous but I'm just trying to make my point about Fergie?

I wanna back Utd cos I think their odds are good, but need good reasoning before.
Report JPG June 12, 2013 1:46 PM BST
Fergie's retirement does need taking into account but the questions are, to what extent "should" it be taken and also how much has been priced in (rightly or wrongly) to the current price.

Personally, I feel their price has correctly priced in a bit of uncertainty but requires no more. Moyes has substantial Premier League experience and will even know the Man Utd team extremely well having had to battle them for so long. Moyes was even Fergie's main choice given reports and I don't think its unreasonable to say he's a "safe" pair of hands.

Theres obviously a question mark over him at the very highest level (Champions League for example) but cant see him having such an adverse affect that would take them out of the top 4 positions. Id guess that even those on this thread that have the opposite view to me wouldn't be surprised if we were all to find out that Man Utd end up winning the title. Financial fair play rules etc only go further to solidify a more stable top end.

Whether Man Utds price on its own shows value or not, Im not sure, hence my OP surrounding the top 3 in the market. I sense theres value somewhere in there but unsure exactly of its location.
Report sheppy123 June 12, 2013 2:03 PM BST
JPG - You've confirmed all my thoughts and I definitely think Utd are good value. For a team that's never finished out of the top 3 1.34 looks good.
Report JPG June 12, 2013 2:10 PM BST
You could be there Sheppy although theres only £6 available.

Theres £150 trying to back Man City at 1.33 which doesn't tie in with overall market with Man City being slightly longer there.

Therefore, technically, if the outright market is "correct" one of the 1.34 to back on Man Utd or the 1.33 lay on Man City is value (before commission anyway.)
Report sheppy123 June 12, 2013 3:01 PM BST
Haha yes £6 - you'd make a couple of quid though!

Yes I've noticed that in some of those markets. How can City be shorter odds than Utd when they're bigger to win the league?

That's Betfair for you!
Report sheppy123 June 12, 2013 3:13 PM BST
JPG what do you think of 5.4 for Spurs to finish in the top 4?

(I've snatched the £6!)
Report sheppy123 June 12, 2013 3:16 PM BST
Sorry, I was looking at the top3 market damn it! I thought Spurs looked too big!!!
Report JPG June 13, 2013 6:57 PM BST
Sheppy,

I notice theres another fiver available to back Man Utd at 1.34 in the top 3 market. I promise its not mine :)

However, I am thinking of laying Man City in that same market at 1.31. Would you be interested in taking any of it?
Report sheppy123 June 13, 2013 7:08 PM BST
Thanks JPG, it's nice to be updated on things!

I'm not interested in City at the moment. I've been looking into doing something with Spurs.

Backed Everton to finish in top 6 with Victor @ 5.5. I personally thought they were good odds. 5 is the best price now.
Report JPG June 13, 2013 7:16 PM BST
No worries, I might still go ahead with the 1.31 lay on Man City, the only doubt Im having is I don't want to tie up cash in unmatched bets on illiquid markets.

I notice the 1.34 on Man Utd has gone, upped your stake to £11 overall now? :)
Report sheppy123 June 13, 2013 10:29 PM BST
Haha you must be a mind reader!

Yes, I don't like my money tied up for too long either. I only usually have about £300 to play with and I don't really wanna deposit any more.

I'll be honest, I've got £35 on Utd now. I'd already put a bit on them before I asked for your advice. Good job you didn't say "No! Whatever you do, don't back them!"

I don't know when I'm gonna stop. I think £100 would be nice! Knowing my luck they'll be 1.4 next week!
Report JPG June 14, 2013 6:52 PM BST
I think your 1.34 bets will be fine Sheppy, you'll certainly get a lot of run for your money as Man Utd imploding I simply cant seeing. If you're thinking of backing them for more but don't want to tie up too much, think about placing some back bets out of the money for relatively smaller stakes. Man Utd have been known to stumble early on the season and when the fixtures come out soon, if theres some tricky games early on, you should be at the front of the q for either some potential value at more attractive odds on some season long trading opportunities.

If anyone wants to back Man City for top 3 at 1.31, let me know, Ill put some cash up for you.
Report sheppy123 June 14, 2013 7:17 PM BST
Thanks JPG, it's always the greatest of pleasures to hear from you!

I bet Utd to finish in the top 3 last season was much shorter? It seems like there's a lot of emphasis on Fergie not being there?
Report JPG June 14, 2013 7:24 PM BST
Its partly that, part suspicion that the league table flattered Man Utd a bit last season, and part the perception that a number of teams will be better suited to challenge them this time around (for various reasons.)

Last season they also had the extra little bit of drive to win it given the way Man City took it from them the season before.

All good reasons for Man Utd to be longer odds this time but the core/fundamental basis of the club that makes them successful is still there.

If Im really struggling with a proposition, I either leave it entirely or imagine that Im being forced to have a £100 liability on it and I have to choose which side of the risk Id want at that price.
Report sheppy123 June 14, 2013 7:49 PM BST
It kinda freaks me out how it's the same teams every year that end the season at the top end of the league. It's like fate almost! I'm not a big football fan and I haven't got Sky so don't get to watch many games. I do know that there's a lot of luck involved, as well as skill of course. So often it could go either way but it seems typical that Utd will win! You could roll a dice 6 times and get 6 sixes!

If Utd don't do that well, it will benefit my other bets so all is not lost. People only think there's 4 teams in the league!

Haha I also come up with justifications for my betting like, "I could spend that on a good night out!"
Report sheppy123 June 14, 2013 9:22 PM BST
JPG - It won't be long before you stop chatting with me about football cos my knowledge is very limited! There's SO many complications that are above my head. I can spend all day creating databases and running countless stats through my silly computer programs, BUT it doesn't really tell me a lot.

I'll tell you what though, don't you get to know a lot about things through gambling!

Take the French Open (sorry, I know this is a football thread!) for instance. I watched many hours of it every day. Now if you took away the gambling element I couldn't give a toss! I can tell you the nationality of most of the players, and lots of other stuff I'd usually know nothing about!

Most of my football knowledge comes from watching "The Final Score" which I watch every Saturday during the season. Gabby does things for me as well!!!
Report JPG June 19, 2013 1:53 PM BST
Sheppy,

I notice you can now lay off/trade out your Man Utd backs at 1.34 by laying at 1.33. You can also be the first in the q by laying at 1.31 to make a further 2 ticks profit.

However, Id only recommend you do is if either one of these things is true:

1) You now believe a lay of Man Utd at 1.31 represents a value bet in itself (or neutral anyway)
2) You believe the freed up funds (by closing the trade at profit) can be put to better use in the mean time.

Reason number 2 is more likely, if at all. Either reason would crystallise all or some of the value you identified earlier, albeit for low amounts. I also see an added risk/opportunity for closing out with a view to going back in at a later date with Man Utd's first 3 games being quite tough and therefore, price sensitive results.

By the way, if you fancy laying some money on Man City at 1.31, it'll be appreciated :)
Report sheppy123 June 19, 2013 7:32 PM BST
Hi JPG! Thanks for the advice, it's much appreciated!

Man Utd are not worth laying yet. I'd be surprised if they didn't finish in the top 3 cos they always have done. But I guess things are different now? But we'll see???

If my funds run low I'll just deposit some more money.

I'll think about City but I think they'll finish in the top 3?
Report JPG June 24, 2013 9:05 PM BST
Further to the top 3 betting, I notice Spurs are shorter then Liverpool in the top 4 market, yet on the outright winner market, they are the other way around.

A quick glance across the books shows a similar pattern although not quite so much divergence as compared to BF.

Am I missing something here? The markets seem to be saying that if Spurs are in the hunt, they're more likely to last the pace to get in top 4 then if Liverpool were in the same spot BUT if they lose ground, they're more likely to fall faster then Liverpool.

Im more then willing to accept this as a dynamic within betting in theory but does this situation really qualify? Or of so, to the extent implied by the current market?

What am I missing with this folks?
Report sheppy123 June 24, 2013 9:16 PM BST
Hi JPG, I've noticed that in these markets the back and lay prices are always far apart. Is it possible that at the moment nobody is offering a better price due to the lack of interest in these markets? It's like most people only want to trade in the winner market?
Report JPG June 24, 2013 9:44 PM BST
The lack of liquidity will explain the relatively large spreads between back and lay but theres enough to see the market forming around what Ive described above.

Even the fixed odds firms are showing this "discrepancy."

If we assume the outright market is broadlyh "correct" with Liverpool just slightly shorter then Spurs, then why is there around £1100 trying to back Spurs for a top 4 at 3.2 yet theres solid laying money around Liverpool up to 3.85?
Report sheppy123 June 24, 2013 10:02 PM BST
Sorry JPG, I feel like I insulted your intelligence there. You're far more experienced on Betfair than I am and what I said was just too obvious!

I didn't realise it was the same with the bookies?

Well, I hardly know anything about football so I'll leave it up to people that do. It does seem odd the way teams have been priced up in a different order?
Report The Dragon June 25, 2013 5:31 PM BST
this thread says all that needs to be said about the market and the top 4-6 teams. the differences in opinion and the plethora of uncertainty means that i will not be betting just yet on this market. there are just too many uncertainties.

i think liverpool are pretty short but would have a word of caution in laying them pre season. if you look at the fixtures liverpool have a very comfortable start, if you are going to lay i would suggest waiting as there price may well contract prior to december
Report kenilworth June 25, 2013 5:46 PM BST
The idea that difficult/easy starts affect the betting, IMO
it doesn't. An easy start means a difficult finish and vice
versa, betting adjusted on a match by match basis.
Report The Dragon June 25, 2013 6:50 PM BST
as usual kenilworth spouting rubbish or is deliberately trying to be argumentative, i suspect the latter. i guarantee you that if liverppol take say 33pts out of the first possible 42 pts their price will contract. individual matches do not necessarily impact on the outright markets
Report kenilworth June 25, 2013 7:04 PM BST
If Liverpool take 33 points from their first 14 matches, they
will be favourite to win it, but that scenario is impossible.
Report The Dragon June 25, 2013 7:23 PM BST
hence my point, look can we bury this hatchet once and for all your sniping at most things i post is ridiculous and tiresome.

lets move on and try to exchange useful betting information that is of benefit and not negative in its very nature
Report kenilworth June 25, 2013 7:34 PM BST
Only if you don't spout nonsense and Liverpool
getting 33 points from their first 14 games is
nonsense.
Report The Dragon June 25, 2013 7:40 PM BST
LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report sweetchildofmine June 25, 2013 7:41 PM BST
dragon trust me youre wasting your time, just block him its easier
Report kenilworth June 25, 2013 7:53 PM BST
Liverpool getting 33 points from their
14 games is not nonsense? Get a grip.
Report sheppy123 June 25, 2013 10:28 PM BST
There is something about Betfair that really pisses me off - that's how efficient the markets are! It makes it hard to make money cos it's full of whizz-kids that have an amazing ability to price things up accordingly!

So people will be more than aware of Liverpool's future games.
Report viva el presidente! June 25, 2013 11:09 PM BST
some of them are efficient, others aren't. and some of the efficient ones become much less efficient the moment they go in play.
Report henok June 25, 2013 11:40 PM BST
once you are on top of the markets, you will recognize that many of the markets are not that efficient. it is simply the case that they are very efficient for you
Report henok June 25, 2013 11:40 PM BST
that is for sheppy123
Report sheppy123 June 25, 2013 11:55 PM BST
That's good to know then! It makes it worthwhile studying things then?

Like viva says, they're much less efficient once they go in play.
Report sweetchildofmine June 25, 2013 11:55 PM BST
theres always wrong prices..theres far too many markets for them all to be dead accurate
Report viva el presidente! June 26, 2013 1:24 AM BST
the voice winner market last saturday is a good example of a market that was just wrong.
Report sweetchildofmine June 26, 2013 7:44 AM BST
which is why many take issue with kevin pullein in the post when he cant find a single bet, out of more than a hundred matches and hundreds of markets, by stating there isnt a single wrong price ...lunacy
Report kenilworth June 26, 2013 8:18 AM BST
'sweety' clearly doesn't buy or read the RP or he wouldn't say what he
says about Pullein. Lunatics don't win 17 consecutive seasons, how can
that be? Perhaps he(sweety) could post these 'wrong' prices when they
occur? his most recent picks have been spectacularly unsuccessful.
Report JPG July 7, 2013 1:29 PM BST
To keep all those who asked, informed of developments, Ive now completed the original idea by dutching the top 3 in the betting at the following odds:

Man Utd 3.65 (steady drift all summer so far, honestly thought the "uncertain on Moyes" factor was already priced in)
Man City 3.45
Chelsea 3.5

This represents just under 85% of the book (markedly better then at the time of my OP) and if successful, will yield 16.82% after commission for me.

However, with the majority of the "silly transfer season" still to go, Ive only gone in with half of my initial stake ideas with the view of committing the rest later on in the summer, but before the season actually starts.

Still cant see any further threat from the remaining clubs other then what Ive already discussed earlier on this thread so comfortable with the way things stand at the moment. Even managed to sneak a few extra quid out of it by scalping it already so got a small head start.

By the way, what is going on with Southampton? Only team outside the top 7 to have their odds drop below 1000 and theres support for them in other sub markets.

Any Saints fans care to comment?! :)
Report tobermory September 15, 2013 1:04 AM BST
Shaky start to this JPG , have you closed out the bets ?

63.45% now

Striking thing to me is Arsenal,Spurs & liverpool are 1-2-3 without any of them, IMO , having played as well as they are capable of.
Report [x] These checkboxes suck September 15, 2013 1:36 AM BST
Down, dire.
Report tobermory March 17, 2014 2:52 AM GMT
71.67% now

So probably still going to win but a bit nervy for anyone who did dutch the 1/8
Report bingo bongo August 5, 2014 3:29 PM BST
Anyone got the nerve to go in again after the close shave last season?

There is an argument that the combined price for City, Chelsea and Man United is too big at nearly 1/4. Kevin Pullein RP pullout.
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